Energy applications offer growth potential for tin Technical - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Energy applications offer growth potential for tin

Technical Session: Specialty minerals and metals for energy storage Tuesday 8 March 2016 Peter Kettle, Jeremy Pearce & Tom Mulqueen - ITRI Ltd

Presentation agenda

• Overview of tin applications: growth trends and the key

markets today

• Current and future role in energy storage, generation

and conservation

• Lead-acid and advanced batteries
• Solar power & thermoelectric materials
• Hydrogen and clean fuels
• New sources for new applications
• Supply problems for current producers
• Known and unknown future resources
• Investment urgently needed

World tin consumption from 1900

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 Post-war reconstruction to oil crisis China, electronics & lead-free solders Cans and cars ’000tpy

Estimated world refined tin use, 2014

43.5% 4.8% 15.5% 14.7% 7.3% 5.2% 2.0% 7.0% Solders - electronic Solders - industrial Chemicals Tinplate Lead-Acid Batteries Brass & Bronze Float glass Other

Global tin use by industry sector

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Other Industrial equipment Construction Packaging Transport Consumer electronics

Solder - electronic Solder - industrial Tinplate Chemicals Brass & Bronze Float Glass Others

8,000 tin R&D publications per year Energy uses the major theme R&D of tin energy uses is booming

Broad potential in tin energy technologies

Storage

Lead-acid Calcium tin grids, tin sulphate electrolyte Lithium ion Tin nanoneedles, Silicon + tin anodes, tin electrolyte Magnesium ion Antimony or bismuth tin alloy anodes Sodium ion Tin sulphide / carbon anodes Supercapacitors Manganese + iron tin oxide anodes Aluminium Air Tin alloy addition, tin stannate electrolyte Fuel Cells Tin phosphate membrane, molten tin, tin platinum catalyst, tinned copper mesh

Generation

Solar cells Copper Zinc Tin Sulphide (CZTS), Tin perovskite Solar storage Molten Tin Thermoelectric Tin Selenide, Magnesium Stannide

Hydrogen

Methane to hydrogen Molten tin Water splitting Tin oxide, tin sulphide photocatalysts

Clean Fuel

Biodiesel catalysts Iron Tin oxide Fuel catalysts Tin antimony alloys

Source: Atsushi Tsutsumi, Tokyo University

Performance continues to improve across multiple battery types

Tin use in lead acid batteries

High end VRLA Antimony free Calcium-Tin Tin sulphate Tin solder

Tin additions improve performance

High-end lead acid battery uses favour tin

Only tin batteries have high performance

Start-Stop vehicles Regenerative braking

Now the fourth largest tin use Tin in China Lead-Acid Batteries

Type Tin Use

per KVhr

Million units Total Tin Use

Starter 52.1g 100 5,200 Motive 59g 90 5,310 Industrial 35.5g 37.5 1,330 11,840 tpa

Global consumption ~26,000 tpa and rising

Jian, Z. (2015), “Outlook for Tin Application in Lead-Acid Batteries”, 2015 ITRI China International Tin Forum, pp. 140–156.

Lead acid battery markets are booming

Tin use in lithium-ion batteries

Possible Tin Use

Main new target is zero emissions vehicles

US Pat 9142830, Sep 2015 US Pat 9142830, Sep 2015

Other targets for lithium-ion include home energy storage

Specific Capacity (mAh/g) 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Graphite Tin Germanium Silicon

Leading materials in development for addition to lithium-ion battery anodes

Silicon in anodes has higher charge capacity Silicon appears to have taken the lead

But tin R&D continues to increase…

100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Tin Silicon Number of published R&D Papers relating to use in lithium ion batteries

Tin may be used to stabilise silicon

Markets for ‘post-lithium’ $14 billion by 2026

Source: Kang et al , J. Mater. Chem. A, 2015, 3, 17899

Tin is a leading anode material for ‘post lithium-ion’ battery technologies

Source: Kang et al , J. Mater. Chem. A, 2015, 3, 17899

US Pat 8647770, Dec 2013

Magnesium-ion :

Antimony – Tin alloy Bismuth – Tin alloy

Sodium-ion :

Tin sulphide / Carbon

Solar cell markets grow as price falls

Source: PV Demand: James, GTM Research, March 2015 PV Module Price: Four Peaks Tech., Solar Cell Central website

Solar start-ups launching tin technology now New cheap tin perovskite technology takes off

50% of US heat energy from fuels is wasted

Tin “the most efficient to date” Thermo-electrics – tin selenide

Liquid tin can produce hydrogen from methane ‘More than 50% cheaper’ hydrogen production

Carlo Rubbia Nobel Laureate

New tin fuel cell products in development

Tin pyrophosphate membrane

Tin ‘state-of-the-art’ for cheaper fuel cells

Tin fuel catalysts reduce fuel and emissions

ITRI promoting new fuel catalyst R&D

China and Indonesia dominate supply

Shares in world mine output 1980 - 2014

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Myanmar China Indonesia Malaysia Bolivia Peru ROW

Data: ITRI

Changing China raw material sources

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Crude tin imports for re-refining Secondary refined tin production Concentrates imports Unreported mine production Reported mine production*

Data: ITRI, CRU,CNIA

Sources of China tin raw materials, ’000t

* Official mine production data has ceased to be published since 2013.

Indonesian exports fall further

60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 105,000 110,000

12-month moving total of tonnage of metal checked prior to export

New export regulations from 1 July / 30 August 2013, November 2014, August 2015

China Indonesia Other Asia Rest of World “Soft floor” ~ US $13,850/t

Floor price of marginal production

2015 Cash production costs net of by- product revenues, US$/t contained tin (based on mid-December 2015 exchange rates and by-product prices)

Changes in 2015 mine production

• 30,000 -20,000 -10,000

10,000 20,000 Indonesia China Peru Africa Australia Brazil Bolivia Myanmar Total World

Mapping known tin resources

Total CRIRSCO Compliant

Global tin resources (inc. reserves)

Global Tin Production

0.05 (Mt) 0.5 (Mt) 5 (Mt) Data: ITRI * Resources located by country. Specific deposit sites not represented.

Plenty of supply – at the right price

1 10 100 1,000 Extractable Global Resource ITRI Resource (2016) USGS Reserve (2015) ITRI Reserve (2016) Tin metal (Mt)

220 Mt 2.1 Mt 4.8 Mt

Data: USGS, UNEP, ITRI

~720 yrs ~7 yrs ~37 yrs ~16 yrs

11.2 Mt Years of 2014 tin mine production (306 Ktpa)

Comparing global tin resource & reserve estimates

*ITRI estimates include resources and reserves non-compliant with CRIRSCO

Visible total tin stocks

50 100 150 200 250 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 US Strategic Stockpile Producer & consumer LME

’000 tonnes

Forecast weeks’ supply and prices

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Weeks' supply Prices

Weeks’ supply, price in US$/tonne Forecast

Data: ITRI

Summary points

• Current tin applications broadly stable in terms of

technology change and substitution risks and opportunities

• Potential for commercial development in energy storage and

generation over 3 – 30 years

• Tin supply from traditional producing areas is declining and

exploration and development close to stalled

• Global tin resources are more than adequate to ensure

long-term supply

• Medium-term price recovery likely to re-stimulate investment

Energy-related R&D showing strong and growing interest in tin