End Citizens United Poll Findings and Recommendations September 12, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

End Citizens United Poll Findings and Recommendations

September 12, 2017

Ø Telephone survey of landline and mobile phones among 1,000

registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2018 general election who live in the following 50 targeted Congressional Districts:

Ø AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-09, CA-07, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49,

CA-52, CO-06, CT-05, FL-07, FL-13, FL-26, FL-27, GA-06, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, IL-06, IL-17, KS-02, KS-03, MN-01, MN-02, MN-03, MN-07, MN-08, NE-02, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-05, NJ-07, NV-03, NY-18, NY-24, OR-04, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, TX-07, TX-23, TX-32, VA-02, VA-10, WA-08 and WI-03

Ø The survey was conducted from August 24 through September 5,

• 2017. In 95 cases out of 100, the responses to this survey should fall

within ±3.1 percentage points of those that would have been obtained from interviewing the entire population of likely general election voters in the targeted Congressional Districts.

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Methodology: Battleground CD Telephone Survey

50.5% 48.9% 48.1% 47.7% 49.3% 45.9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2008 2012 2016

Democrat Republican 3

Battleground Congressional Districts – Average Presidential Results

The universe for this battleground survey is heavily tilted towards districts with a Republican incumbent but where Trump received less than 50% of the vote. Clinton won the districts in this survey 48.1% to 45.9%.

4

Within this specific battleground universe, Democrats currently have a 12 point advantage in a generic vote for U.S. Congress. The generic Democrat had a 14 point lead in districts with a Republican incumbent.

44% 33%

2% 14% 48% 36%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Democrat Lean Democrat Republican Lean Republican Other Undecided Overall Definite Voters Dem Incumbent GOP Incumbent Democrat Independent Republican White/No Degree White/College Grad Dem GOP 48% 36% 51% 35% 46% 37% 49% 35% 91% 2% 42% 28% 7% 84% 42% 42% 49% 37%

Generic Vote for U.S. Congress

16% 7% 12% 39% 21% 25% 4% 22% 37% 47% 31% 83% 45% 7% 14% 27% 10% 17% 15%

37% 32% 5% 34% 76% 61% 58% 93% 62% 22%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Excellent Good Poor Not so good 5

President Trump Job Rating

Overall Undecided Voters Democrats Independents Republicans

Trump’s job rating is decidedly negative and highly polarized. However, among Independents, it is 34%-62%, with 45% poor. While 83% of Democrats rate Trump’s job as poor, just 39% of Republicans rate it as excellent.

12% 9% 41% 28% 15% 18% 15% 22%

53% 37% 30% 40%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Excellent Good Poor Not so good 6

Incumbent Representative Job Rating*

Democratic Incumbent Republican Incumbent *Name of Congressperson was included in question

Democratic incumbents received a positive job rating. However, Republican incumbents were under water by a margin of 37%-40%.

25% 27% 39% 42% 46% 47% 54%

Reforming our immigration system Reducing taxes and government spending Creating jobs and increasing incomes Improving education and making college more affordable Lowering healthcare costs Reducing the influence of special interest money in government and elections Protecting America from terrorism Top Priority Among Independents (% Rating issue a 10) 7 “Now, I'm going to read you a list of issues facing the country and I’d like you to tell me how important a priority you think each one should be using a scale that runs from 0 to 10”

Reducing the influence of special interest money in politics is seen as a big priority to Independents in these battleground districts, surpassed only by protecting America from terrorism. This has been a consistent pattern in all of ECU’s polling.

26% 28% 36% 37% 39% 49% 59%

7% 13% 11% 8% 24% 11% 9% 20% 10% 11% 12% 11% 9% 10%

47% 49% 42% 43% 26% 31% 22%

Democrat Neither Both/DK Republican 8 “I’m going to read you another list of issues. This time, I’d like you to tell me which political party you think will do a better job handing that issue” Improving education and making college more affordable Lowering healthcare costs Reducing the influence of special interest money in government and elections Creating jobs and increasing incomes Reforming our immigration system Reducing taxes and government spending Protecting America from terrorism

Democrats have an advantage on which party would do a better job of reducing the influence of special interest money in government and elections, although nearly a quarter of voters responded “neither” on this question. This initial advantage is good but there is room to grow.

10% 33% 72% 39%

22% 33% 16% 24% 10% 12% 8% 11%

58% 22% 4% 26%

Republicans Independents Democrats Overall Democrat Neither Both/DK Republican 9

Better Job – Reducing the Influence of Special Interest Money Among Independents, Democrats have an edge of 33%-22%. However, the percentage saying “neither” is higher among these voters at 33%.

10

60% 65% 62% 53% 34% 31% 32% 40%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Overall Democrat Independent Republican The amount of money that special interests spend on political campaigns impacts me or my family Even though I may not like how much special interests spend on political campaigns, it does not impact me or my family

Six in ten voters believe that the amount of money that special interests spend on political campaigns impacts them directly.

50% 57% 61% 61% 62% 62% 62% 69%

11 “Please tell me how much you think that candidate really wants to reform our politics. A 0 on this scale means you think that candidate is opposed to reforming politics. A 10 on this scale means you think that candidate is serious about reforming politics.”

A candidate who supports requiring special interests to disclose all the money they spend on political campaigns A candidate who supports limiting the amount of money special interests can spend on political campaigns A candidate who refuses to accept money from Wall Street A candidate who refuses to accept money from federal lobbyists A candidate who helps fund their campaign with their own personal money A candidate who publicly calls for all special interests groups to not air TV ads in their political campaign A candidate who refuses to accept corporate PAC money A candidate who refuses to accept money from drug companies

Total Serious About Reform (8-10)

Candidates who support reform can credibly demonstrate to voters that they are serious about reform in a variety of different ways. Support for disclosure of special interest money tops the list. Supporting limits on special interest spending is just as compelling as refusing to take money from drug companies, PACs, Wall Street and federal lobbyists.

25% 34% 38% 42% 43% 52% 52% 55% 55% 64%

Trade agreements Regulations Taxes Corporations Wall Street Special interests Government Health insurance companies Prescription drug companies Politicians A lot of blame 12 “Recently there has been a lot of talk about how many families have not really benefitted from the economic recovery and continue to struggle economically. I am going to read you the names of some different entities. For each one, please indicate how much blame they deserve for this problem -- do they deserve a lot of blame, some blame, or no blame at all for why many families continue to struggle economically?”

Politicians and special interests are both viewed as a large part of the reason that middle class families continue to struggle economically, along with prescription drug companies and health insurance companies.

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Deserve A Lot of Blame

18% 20% 29% 51% 52% 55% 45% 58% 60% 61%

Trade agreements Regulations Taxes Corporations Wall Street Special interests Government Health insurance companies Prescription drug companies Politicians

24% 33% 36% 41% 41% 53% 52% 54% 54% 67% 36% 50% 50% 31% 36% 47% 61% 52% 50% 63% Democrats Independents Republicans Democrats, Independents and Republicans are united in their belief that politicians deserve blame. To a slightly lesser extent, they are united in their belief that prescription drug companies, health insurance companies and special interests deserve blame. There is considerable polarization by party when it comes to the blame for government, corporations, taxes and regulations.

Very Convincing Reason to Support Democratic Candidate Overall Und

[MIDDLE CLASS/NOT SPECIAL INTERESTS] This Democratic candidate says that instead of giveaways to special interests, we should grow the economy for real people by rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure, ensuring jobs pay a living wage and helping consumers by lowering the cost of prescription drugs and cracking down on big corporations that gouge consumers

51% 49%

[DARK MONEY/TOOLS TO SUCCEED] This Democratic candidate wants to require all political donations be made public so that special interests cannot secretly influence our elections. This Democrat says the influence of these special interests is the reason politicians do not focus on the real needs of people, like increasing career training and making college more affordable

49% 48%

[PRESCRIPTION DRUGS & CORPORATIONS] This Democratic candidate says too many families are being squeezed by rising prices, especially for prescription drugs. This Democrat says we need to help consumers by lowering the cost of prescription drugs and cracking down on big corporations that gouge consumers

48% 30%

[TOOLS TO SUCCEED/CAREER TRAINING] This Democratic candidate says too many Americans don’t have the right skills to find good paying jobs. This Democrat says we need to build an economy that works for everyone by giving people the tools they need to get a good paying job by increasing career training and making college more affordable

45% 33%

[INFRASTRUCTURE/LIVING WAGE] This Democratic candidate says the economy is not working the way it should for many families. This Democrat says we can grow the economy and create jobs by rebuilding our roads, bridges and crumbling infrastructure. And we need to ensure a living wage for every American who has a job

43% 29%

[LIMITING SPECIAL INTERESTS] This Democratic candidate says we will never be able to make an economy that works for real people until we reduce the influence of special interests on politicians by limiting the amount of money that corporations and special interests can spend on political campaigns

42% 35% 14

Democratic economic messaging that include references to reforming politics (in blue) scored better than pure economic messaging (in green). This is particularly the case for voters who said they were undecided on the generic vote.

Very Convincing Reason to Support Republican Candidate Overall

[BAILOUTS & TAX REFORM] This Republican candidate says it’s time we end bailouts and reward people who work hard. And it’s time to have real tax reform that makes the tax system simple, fair and built to promote job creation and economic growth

42%

[TAXES & SPENDING] This Republican candidate says we need to encourage job creation by keeping taxes low, controlling government spending, reforming government programs that no longer work and drive up the national debt while cutting needless government regulations

38%

[NEW APROACH] This Republican candidate says increased government spending and higher taxes have not worked and that we need a new approach that recognizes that economic growth comes when American families and businesses work, save and invest, and not from the government

36% 15

Republican economic messaging tested somewhat lower than the Democratic

• statements. However, all three scored in the mid-thirties to low-forties.

41% 39%

8% 6% 13% 13%

38% 42%

Post Arguments Initial Democrat Neither Both/DK Republican 16

Better Job – Creating Jobs and Increasing Incomes – Initial and Informed

42% 35%

7% 9% 12% 11%

39% 45%

Post Arguments Initial

+13 +6

Economy Only Economy + Reform Economic messaging that included reform did a slightly better job of moving attitudes about which party would be better at “creating jobs and increasing incomes.”

40% 40%

22% 25% 13% 10%

25% 25%

Post Arguments Initial Democrat Neither Both/DK Republican 17

Better Job – Reducing the Influence of Special Interest Money – Initial and Informed

52% 39%

14% 23% 10% 10%

24% 28%

Post Arguments Initial

+0

Economy Only Economy + Reform

+17

Not surprisingly, the economic messaging that included references to reform did a better job of moving attitudes about which party would be better at “reducing the influence of special interest money in government and elections.” While the Democrats have an initial advantage, there is clearly room to grow on this dimension.