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Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. Fourth Quarter 2015 Earnings & 2016 Financial Guidance Presentation February 17, 2016 enbridgepartners.com Legal Notice This presentation includes forward-looking statements and projections, which are
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Legal Notice
This presentation includes forward-looking statements and projections, which are statements that do not relate strictly to historical or current
- facts. These statements frequently use the following words, variations thereon or comparable terminology: “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,”
“could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “position,” “projection,” “should,” “strategy,” “target,” “will” and similar words. Although the Partnership believes that such forward-looking statements are reasonable based on currently available information, such statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions and are not guarantees of performance. Future actions, conditions or events and future results of operations may differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Many of the factors that will determine these results are beyond the Partnership’s ability to control or predict. Specific factors that could cause actual results to differ from those in the forward-looking statements include: (1) changes in the demand for or the supply of, forecast data for, and price trends related to crude oil, liquid petroleum, natural gas and NGLs, including the rate of development of the Alberta Oil Sands; (2) the Partnership’s ability to successfully complete and finance expansion projects or drop-down opportunities; (3) the effects of competition, in particular, by other pipeline systems; (4) shut-downs or cutbacks at the Partnership’s facilities or refineries, petrochemical plants, utilities or other businesses for which the Partnership transports products or to whom the Partnership sells products; (5) hazards and operating risks that may not be covered fully by insurance, including those related to Line 6B and any additional fines and penalties assessed in connection with the crude oil release on that line; (6) changes in or challenges to the Partnership’s tariff rates; (7) changes in laws or regulations to which the Partnership is subject, including compliance with environmental and operational safety regulations that may increase costs of system integrity testing and maintenance; and (8) permitting at federal, state and local levels in regards to the construction of new assets. “Enbridge” refers collectively to Enbridge Inc. and its subsidiaries other than the Partnership and its subsidiaries. Forward-looking statements regarding “drop-down” growth opportunities from Enbridge are further qualified by the fact that Enbridge is under no obligation to offer to sell us interests in its U.S. projects, and we are under no obligation to buy any such interests. Similarly, any forward- looking statements regarding potential “drop-down” transactions of interests in Midcoast Operating to Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. are further qualified by the fact that we are under no obligation to sell to Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. any such interests, and Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. is under no obligation to buy any such interests. As a result, we do not know when or if any such transactions will occur. Except to the extent required by law, we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result
- f new information, future events or otherwise. Reference should also be made to the Partnership’s filings with the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and any subsequently filed Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for additional factors that may affect results. These filings are available to the public over the Internet at the SEC’s web site (www.sec.gov) and at the Partnership’s web site.
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Agenda
- 1. Overview
- 2. Defensive Business Model
- 3. Strong Fundamentals
- 4. Project Execution
- 5. 4Q 2015 Financial Results
- 6. 2016 Financial Guidance
- 7. Question & Answer
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Solid Execution in 2015
- Record liquids pipeline system deliveries: ~2.9 MMbpd average in 2015
- Placed $1.6B of liquids pipelines organic growth projects into service
- Closed $1B drop-down acquisition from general partner
- Achieved top-end of 2015 adjusted EBITDA and DCF guidance
- Secured $1.9B of funding
Well Positioned
- Strong supply outlook + premier market connectivity drives high system utilization
- Defensive cash flows and strong counterparty credit profile
- Manageable funding needs; does not expect to access equity market in 2016
Overview
Reliable business model in all market environments
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Well Positioned for Current Environment
Low-risk, reliable business model insulated from low commodity prices
Strong Commercial Structures Counterparty Credit Profile (2)
<5% of business cash flows subject to direct commodity price exposure >90% of business cash flows from Liquids segment; segment underpinned by strong low-risk commercial structures >90% of revenues from investment grade customers
Cost of Service/Take-or-Pay Fee for service Commodity Sensitive(1) 2016e EBITDA attributable to EEP (after deducting non-controlling interest)
(1) Commodity sensitive gross margin forecast is before hedging; Greater than 90% of 2016e commodity sensitive cash flows are hedged substantially above current market prices. (2) EEP consolidated (including MEP) and net of Accounts Receivable purchased by affiliate of Enbridge.
Investment Grade Non-Investment Grade (Security Received)
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Well Positioned for Current Environment
Strong Western Canadian supply outlook and demand for pipeline capacity
Pipeline Capacity vs. WCSB Supply Oil Sands Growth
U.S. Mainline at full capacity;
2015 total system deliveries +10% vs. 2014
~800 kbpd oil sands supply growth through 2019 Basin short >500 kbpd pipeline capacity by 2021
1Source: CAPP Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation (June
2015 Operating & In Construction)
1.5 2 2.5
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Lakehead Deliveries
MMBPD
2 4 6 8 10 12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Incremental Oil Sands Blended Supply
(Cumulative MMBPD)
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Western Canadian Supply Profile vs. Price
Long-term investment horizon by oil sands producers
History demonstrates steady oil sands production growth in all price environments
Kbpd $US/bbl
20 40 60 80 100 120 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 WCSB Production Enbridge Ex-Gretna Deliveries WTI Annual Avg ($US/bbl)
Sources: CAPP, Bloomberg
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Premier Connectivity Drives Strong Demand
Key North American markets served by the Enbridge system
*Excludes NGLs Source: Enbridge estimates and EIA data
Northern PADD II
(Total Capacity = ~0.5MMbpd)
Eastern Canada
(Total Capacity = ~0.8 MMbpd)
Chicago
(Total Capacity = ~0.8 MMbpd)
Michigan/Ohio
(Total Capacity = ~0.7 MMbpd)
Patoka
(Total Capacity = ~0.8 MMbpd)
Cushing
(Total Capacity = ~1.2 MMbpd)
Western PADD III
(Total Capacity = ~3.7 MMbpd)
Eastern PADD III
(Total Capacity = ~3.2 MMbpd)
Enbridge system accesses 8.5 MMbpd of refining capacity
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- Hedging program largely mitigates commodity
price risk
Low-Risk Business Model Delivers Stable Cash Flows
Liquids pipeline business generates greater than 90% of Partnership’s distributable cash flow
- Utility style regulatory model: ‘return-of’
and ‘return-on’ invested capital
- Highly predictable cash flows
- No volume and commodity price
sensitivity
- Rate base comprised of equity and debt
components Liquids Segment ~85% of fee-based component
- Pipeline toll indexed to PPI + 2.65%(3)
- System highly utilized
Natural Gas Segment ~15% of fee-based component
Fee-Based Cost of Service (Liquids Segment) Commodity Sensitive(2) (Natural Gas Segment)
(1) Contribution is based on revenues from Liquids segment and gross margin from Natural Gas segment, after deducting non-controlling interest. (2) Commodity sensitive gross margin forecast is before hedging; Greater than 90% of 2016e commodity sensitive cash flows are hedged substantially above current market prices. (3) FERC index annual adjustment of PPI + 1.23%. (prior index adjustment of PPI + 2.65% expiries June 30, 2016).
Defensive cash flow profile: well positioned in current environment
2016e EBITDA (1)
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Strong Counterparty Credit Profile
Major liquids pipeline systems underpinned by strong, investment grade customers AAA/Aaa A/Baa1 BBB/Baa2 AA-/A1
Credit enhancement to investment grade
A-/Baa1 A+/Aa1 BBB/Baa2
Credit enhancement to investment grade
BBB-/Baa3
Top 10 Mainline Shippers EEP Customer Credit Quality (1)
Investment Grade Non-Investment Grade / Security Received
(1) EEP consolidated (including MEP) and net of Accounts Receivable purchased by affiliate of Enbridge Inc.
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10 20 30
Mainline Expansions Eastern Access Alberta Clipper Southern Access
Lakehead System:
years years
Liquids Pipelines Remaining Contract Life
Long-term, low-risk commercial structures underpin liquids pipeline revenues
North Dakota System: toll indexed to PPI + 2.65%(1) Mid-Continent System: toll indexed to PPI + 2.65%(1)
years
(1) FERC index annual adjustment of PPI + 1.23%. (prior index adjustment of PPI + 2.65% expiries June 30, 2016). (2) 30 year cost of service agreement, with 15 year initial term.
Lakehead base toll indexed to PPI + 2.65%(1)
Cost-of-Service Fee-based
(2)
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1 2 3
2015 EEP Projects Capital ($MM)(1) Timing Line 67 Mainline Expansion +230 kbpd $240
July 2015
Line 61 Mainline Expansion + 240 kbpd + 150 kbpd Storage & Tankage $395 $380
May 2015 Oct 2015
3Q15-3Q16
Line 78 Mainline Expansion + 570 kbpd $540
Nov 2015
Solid Project Execution
Expanded market access increases liquids pipelines system utilization
Organic growth projects deliver low-risk, highly certain cash flow growth
Organic Growth Projects:
Commercially secured Low-risk framework Long-term contracts
(1) Represents 100% of capital cost. Eastern Access and US Mainline Expansion projects are jointly funded 75% by Enbridge and 25% by EEP.
1 2 3
2015 ENB Market Access Projects Timing Line 9 Reversal and Expansion
4Q 2015
Southern Access Extension
4Q 2015
4 5 5 4
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Sandpiper & Line 3 Replacement Update
Line 3 Sandpiper
MPUC Regulatory Timeline Clarified
- Certificate of Need/Route Permit
processes rejoined
- EIS to precede evidentiary phase
- Expected in-service early 2019
- New Canadian assessment
processes not expected to impact timelines
In service dates move to early 2019; near-term capital requirements are significantly lower
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Enbridge U.S. Liquids Pipelines Drop-Down Backlog
Selective drop-down strategy from sponsor supports long-term growth outlook
Pipeline System Risk Profile
- Eastern Access
- Mainline Expansion
- Line 3 Replacement
- Southern Access Extension
- Flanagan South
- Seaway/Seaway Twin
- Spearhead
- Toledo
B A B A C D E F D E F G H G H
Execute selective drop-down opportunities when market conditions strengthen
Cost-of-Service/Take-or-Pay Indexed Toll (fee-based)
C
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2015 Financial Summary
Unaudited; adjusted results exclude the effect of non-cash, mark-to-market net gains and losses and other adjustments. Refer to the Non-GAAP Reconciliation tables presented in the supplemental slides.
1Adjusted EBITDA includes non-controlling interest. 2Adjusted net income after non-controlling interest and deferred distribution attributable to preferred unitholders. Preferred units deferred distribution of $22.5 million in 4Q 2015. 3 Distributable cash flow and Coverage metric excludes deferred distribution attributable to preferred unitholders. 4 Cash coverage excludes Paid-in-Kind distribution. 5 Debt-to-EBITDA metric considers 50% equity treatment for the hybrid financing instruments; MEP debt and MOLP EBITDA deconsolidated; includes distributions received by EEP from MOLP and MEP.
Strong Operational Performance + Project Execution = Solid Financial Performance
Record Lakehead System
deliveries
Record North Dakota
System deliveries
Project Execution:
- Line 61 expansion to
950 kbpd in service
- Line 78 in service
Earnings
($millions, except per unit amounts)
4Q 2015 4Q 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014 % Change Adjusted EBITDA1 $450.7 $443.3 $1,766.0 $1,551.0 14% Adjusted Net Income2 $96.9 $132.5 $497.6 $460.3 Adjusted Net Income per unit2 $0.11 $0.27 $0.80 $0.93 Cash Flow
($millions)
4Q 2015 4Q 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014 % Change Distributable Cash Flow3 $214.5 $214.4 $948.6 $809.3 17% 2015 2014 Coverage (as declared)3 0.92x 0.90x Cash Coverage (as declared)3,4 1.11x 1.09x Debt/EBITDA5 4.6x 4.3x
Fourth Quarter 2015 Highlights Financial Results
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Financial Outlook 2016
Earnings & Cash Flow Outlook
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
500 1,000 1,500 2,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
kbpd $ millions
Adj EBITDA Liquids Volumes
Projects Deliver EBITDA & Volume Growth
(1) Adjusted EBITDA on a fully consolidated basis; inclusive of non-controlling interest and other income. (2) North Dakota volume forecast does not include 100,000 bpd of take-or-pay volumes on Bakken Pipeline.
Enbridge Energy Partners
($ millions)
2015 2016e
Adjusted EBITDA(1) $1,766.0 $1,800 – 1,900 Distributable Cash Flow $948.6 $860 – 920 Coverage 0.92x 0.80 – 0.90x Cash Coverage 1.11x 0.95 – 1.05x 2015 2016e Lakehead 2,315 2,600– 2,800 North Dakota (2) 353 320 – 350 Mid-Continent 212 200 – 220 Total 2,880 3,120 – 3,370 2015 2016e Anadarko (Mmbtu/d) 773 520 – 580 East Texas (Mmbtu/d) 964 880 – 980 North Texas (Mmbtu/d) 265 200 – 225 Total (Mmbtu/d) 2,002 1,600 – 1,785 NGL Production (bpd) 81,632 70,000 – 75,000
Liquids Volumes (kbpd) Natural Gas & NGL Volumes
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Distributable Cash Flow Outlook
Higher earnings offset by increased interest costs
500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200
2015 Mainline Expansion Liquids Volumes and Rates EA Call Option Exercise Interest Expense Natural Gas Business North Dakota Gathering & Rail Allowance Oil Property Tax & Other 2016E
Distributable Cash Flow
($ MM)
2016 DCF Outlook
- Full year contribution from 2015 growth projects
- Increased liquids pipelines system deliveries
- Eastern Access call option exercise
- Higher cash interest
- Natural gas business
- North Dakota gathering and rail
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Capital and Investment Expenditures
2016 Capital and Investment Expenditures ($ millions)
1 Eastern Access and US Mainline Expansion capital expenditures are forecasted net of joint funding, with assumed Enbridge 75% funding. Sandpiper capital expenditures are forecasted net of 37.5% joint
funding from Marathon Petroleum Corp. The joint funding by Enbridge is based on the respective economic interest in the Eastern Access and Mainline Expansions project series and do not take into account the temporary adjustment to distributions and contributions pursuant to Amendment of OLP limited partnership agreement.
2 Represents EEP’s share of Natural Gas capital expenditures of Midcoast Operating, L.P., (“MOLP”) which will be proportionately funded between EEP and Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. (“MEP”). Forecast
reflects current base 48.4% funding by EEP and 51.6% by MEP.
3 The Line 3 Replacement project participation level with Enbridge is under consideration by an Independent Committee of the Board of Directors and has not been determined. This amount reflects one
possible scenario and represents the approximate dollars that would be remitted to EEP by Enbridge as the capital contribution of Enbridge for an economic interest in the jointly funded project.
Eastern Access1 55 US Mainline Expansions1 90 Sandpiper1 85 Line 3 Replacement 185 Liquids Integrity 280 Liquids Other Growth Enhancements 100 Natural Gas Growth Projects2 25 Maintenance Capital Expenditures2 80 Total Capital Expenditures 900 Eastern Access call option exercise 360 Line 3 Replacement joint funding scenario3
~(350)
Capital and Investment Expenditures +/- 900 1,042 134
500 1,000 12/31/2015 $ millions
Credit Facilities Cash
$1,176
Available Liquidity
~20% Reduction in 2016e capex over 2015; strong liquidity position
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Key Takeaways
Strong business fundamentals
- Connectivity to large producing basins and key North American refining centers
- Expanded market access underpins strong system utilization outlook
Well positioned for current environment
- Defensive and low-risk business model
- Strong counterparty risk profile
Manageable funding needs
- Does not expect to access equity market in 2016; strong liquidity position to
fund base capital program
- Maintaining investment grade credit rating remains a priority