emissions and deposition to the Baltic Sea Alexey Gusev - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

HELCOM Load Group Meeting 7/2014 Alexey Gusev Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East of EMEP

Information on additional POPs: emissions and deposition to the Baltic Sea

www.msceast.org

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EMEP deliverables on additional hazardous substances

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List of pollutants discussed at HELCOM LOAD 4/2012:

 PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs, HBCD

Current status of POP pollution assessment within LRTAP Convention:

 Data on PAHs and PCBs are regularly reported (emissions, monitoring, and modelling)  PBDEs and HBCD are under consideration for the inclusion to the POP Protocol

Emission data for modelling

Officially reported emission data :

PAHs, PCBs ~40 countries Includes: gridded data, source categories, national totals Time period: 1990 – current reporting year (2012) 4 PAHs emission for 2011

Expert estimates of emissions:

TNO inventory for Europe: PAHs, PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDE, … Global inventory of PCBs (1930-2100) - [K. Breivik et al., 2007], 22 PCB congeners

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0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 PL5 LV10 SE11 DE9 CZ3 SI8 MD13 BE13 DE1 SE14 DE8 ES8 NL91 NL9 DE3 SE12 KZ1 NO2 FI96 NO90 NO42 CY2 B[a]P air concentrations, ng/m3 Measured Calculated

Evaluation of modelling results on PAHs: spatial trends

Comparison with measurements

• f EMEP monitoring network

Agreement between the model results and measurements is mostly within a factor of 2 Modelled annual mean B[a]P air concentrations for 2010, ng/m3

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Computed versus measured annual mean air concentrations of PCB-153, pg/m3

Study of PCB pollution within Northern Atlantic in cooperation with OSPAR: Evaluation of long-term trends in concentrations and deposition fluxes in period 1990-2006

Reasonable agreement (factor of 2-3) was found between the model results and measurements for most of the EMEP monitoring sites

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Evaluation of modelling results on PCBs: temporal trends

Annual degradation and distribution in different environmental compartments (in %)

HBCDD PBDE (BDE-47)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Air Soil Sea Vegetation Content Degradation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Air Soil Sea Vegetation Content Degradation

Estimated Persistence in the environment: HBCDD – 11 days, BDE-47 – 170 days Available information (expert estimates of emissions) allows carrying

• ut modelling for particular PBDE congeners.

For HBCDD such assessment requires further cooperation with countries and experts to construct gridded emission data.

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Modelling of New Substances (HBCDD and PBDE)

Evaluation of long-range transport potential and overall persistence

EMEP POP model: transition to lat-lon grid and finer resolution

Global domain

• Resolution – 1° x 1°

Current EMEP domain

• Projection – Stereographic
• Resolution – 50×50 km2

New EMEP domain

• Projection – Lat-Lon
• Resolution – 0.2°×0.2° (0.1°×0.1°)

Model domains

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Modelling of HMs and POPs:

EMEP Transition period is 2014-2016

Concluding remarks

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• Evaluation of PAH and PCB pollution is included in the routine activities of

EMEP (compilation of emissions, monitoring, and model assessment).

• For individual PAH and PCB congeners estimates of pollution can be provided

in similar way as for HMs and PCDD/Fs (Time-series of deposition to the Baltic Sea and its sub-basins).

• For PBDE and HBCDD pilot evaluation of pollution levels for the Baltic Sea

region could be performed if gridded emission data are available (at least for the Baltic Sea region).

• The work on PBDE and HBCDD requires further cooperation with national

experts with regard to the refinement of available data on their emissions and

• bserved levels of pollution.