EMIS enquiry: opening presentation Nick Molden 20 June 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EMIS enquiry: opening presentation Nick Molden 20 June 2016 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EMIS enquiry: opening presentation Nick Molden 20 June 2016 Emissions Analytics credentials Founded in 2011 Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart Specialist in PEMS testing and data

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EMIS enquiry:

  • pening presentation

Nick Molden 20 June 2016

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  • Founded in 2011
  • Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart
  • Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis
  • 1200+ vehicles tested
  • Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data
  • Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators,

consultancies, consumer media

Emissions Analytics’ credentials

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TRACKING POLICY EFFECTIVENESS

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  • Real-world CO2 is

significantly higher than official figures

  • Gasoline gap is

broadly stable

  • Diesel gap was

smaller, but has been growing since 2012

CO2 gap

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CO2 gap official vs real-world Year Gasoline Diesel

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  • Sharply reducing
  • fficial CO2 figures

have given illusion

  • f significant

progress

  • Real-world

reductions much smaller

  • Downward trend

reversed in 2013 for gasoline, 2015 for diesel

CO2 latest trends in Europe

150.0 155.0 160.0 165.0 170.0 175.0 180.0 185.0 190.0 195.0 200.0

2012 2013 2014 2015

Real-world CO2 (g/km) Year

Gasoline Diesel Average

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  • US historically well

behind Europe on CO2 reduction

  • But, real-world CO2
  • n increasing trend

for gasoline cars in Europe

  • Challenging targets

having early positive effects in US

  • Diesel essential for

EU to meet its global CO2 targets?

Europe vs USA

100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 240.0 260.0 280.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real-world CO2 (g/km) Year EU gasoline US gasoline EU diesel

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  • Historically, CF ~4 and

rising real-world fuel economy

  • As many Euro 6

vehicles hit the market in 2014, CF began to fall

  • In 2015, real-world fuel

economy fell significantly for first time

  • Effect particularly of

LNT and EGR?

Effect of NOx regulations?

2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 Conformity Factor Fuel economy (MPG) Year Real-world fuel economy NOx Conformity Factor

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  • Rolling 12-month

average of exceedance factor in blue

  • Step-change technology

launched Q2 to Q3 2014

  • No further reduction in

Conformity Factor since then

  • Average CF dipped to 2.7

in 2014, but risen to back to over 4 since then

NOx latest trends (1)

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 02/11/2011 02/01/2012 02/03/2012 02/05/2012 02/07/2012 02/09/2012 02/11/2012 02/01/2013 02/03/2013 02/05/2013 02/07/2013 02/09/2013 02/11/2013 02/01/2014 02/03/2014 02/05/2014 02/07/2014 02/09/2014 02/11/2014 02/01/2015 02/03/2015 02/05/2015 02/07/2015 02/09/2015 02/11/2015 02/01/2016 Conformity Factor Test date

Euro 5/6 NOx diesel Conformity Factor over time

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  • Earliest Euro 6 vehicles

were LNT and EGR-only, but LNT quickly became the majority technology

  • More recent switch to SCR
  • Nevertheless, good

performance achieved by many LNT systems

  • Similarly wide spread of

performance between LNT and SCR

NOx latest trends (2)

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016 Confirmity Factor Test date

Euro 6 diesel NOx Conformity Factor by after-treatment type

Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR)-only Lean NOx trap (LNT) Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)

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  • Conformity factor

initially 2.1 – 168 mg/km

  • Further increased by

exclusions due to boundary conditions

  • PEMS test-to-test

variability of 30%, so OEMs will need to target ~129 mg/km to avoid getting caught by in- service surveillance

  • 1 in 5 vehicles already

meet this

Will Real Driving Emissions help?

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 14/09/2011 01/04/2012 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016 Conformity Factor Test date Euro 5 Euro 6

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EMISSIONS DATABASE

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Segment/fuel ranking

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Drill-down to individual datasets

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EQUA AIR QUALITY INDEX

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  • Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world NOx emissions, launched in April 2016
  • Non-statutory complement to new Real Driving Emissions regulations
  • But will also
  • Discriminate between high and low emitters, rather than just pass/fail
  • Be updated for each model year to keep up with new calibrations
  • Ratings are published and into the public domain for free
  • Manufacturers and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard
  • Similar to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP, Global NCAP)
  • Robust, independent standard needed to measure and incentivise actions to bring about air

quality improvements

EQUA Air Quality Index

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www.equaindex.com

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Nick Molden, Chief Executive Officer nick@emissionsanalytics.com +44 (0) 20 7193 0489 +44 (0) 7765 105902

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