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Embracing Uncertainty
Dan North Dan North & Associates @tastapod
@tastapod
Embracing Uncertainty Dan North Dan North & Associates - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Embracing Uncertainty Dan North Dan North & Associates - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Embracing Uncertainty Dan North Dan North & Associates @tastapod Patterns of Effective Delivery @tastapod Accelerated Agile @tastapod With apologies to George Lucas Fear leads to Risk Risk Risk leads to Process Process leads to
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@tastapod
Accelerated Agile
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@tastapod
With apologies to George Lucas…
Fear leads to Risk Risk leads to Process Process leads to Hate …and suffering and Gantt charts Risk
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@tastapod
Understanding risk
Impact Likelihood [0.0, 1.0]
∞
C
- n
t e x t / S t a k e h
- l
d e r
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@tastapod
Snowbird 2001
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan
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@tastapod
Everywhere 2013
Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan
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@tastapod
Everywhere 2013
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan
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@tastapod
Everywhere 2013
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan
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@tastapod
Everywhere 2013
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Contract negotiation over customer collaboration Responding to change over following a plan
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@tastapod
Everywhere 2013
Processes and tools over individuals and interactions Comprehensive documentation over working software Contract negotiation over customer collaboration Following a plan over responding to change
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@tastapod
We crave certainty!
Faith becomes religion Complex questions become simplistic answers Interpretation becomes dogma We would rather be wrong than uncertain
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@tastapod
So we resist uncertainty
We resist uncertainty of scope We resist uncertainty of technology We resist uncertainty of effort We resist uncertainty of structure
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@tastapod
The Hourglass: a model of change
Stage 1: Chaos Stage 2: Control Stage 3: Freedom Stabilize Optimize
YOU ARE HERE!!
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@tastapod
Three Ages: a model of growth
- 1. Explore
- maximize discovery
- 2. Stabilize
- minimize variance
- 3. Commoditize
- maximize efficiency
Agile methods optimize for the Second Age
Stabilize
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@tastapod
Real Options
Options have value Options expire Commit deliberately “Never commit early unless you know why”
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@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen
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@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen
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@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen
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@tastapod
Deliberate discovery
Ignorance is your biggest constraint You are second order ignorant (but not third!) Ignorance is multivariate and disjoint Some unexpected bad things will happen
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@tastapod
Embracing uncertainty
Embrace uncertainty of scope Embrace uncertainty of technology Embrace uncertainty of effort Embrace uncertainty of structure
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@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpected
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@tastapod
tl; dr
Expect the unexpectable Anticipate ignorance Embrace uncertainty – it’s inevitable!
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@tastapod