ELECTRIFICATION Ontario Power Generation / Feb 27, 2019 Ontarios - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ontario Power Generation / Feb 27, 2019

PLANNING FOR ELECTRIFICATION

Ontario’s Electricity Sector Emissions Have Fallen Drastically…

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Megatonnes CO2eq Ontario Electricity System OPG

Electricity Waste Other Industry Oil and Gas Agriculture Heavy Industry Buildings Transportation 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Ontario GHG Emissions (Mt) 2015 Ontario GHG Emissions

1990 Emissions: 177 Mt

Electricity is the Lowest Emitting Major Sector in Ontario

Leverage Ontario’s Clean Electricity to Reduce Transportation Emissions

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Mt

Net Annual Reduction in Ontario GHG Emissions

Base Case High EV Penetration

Note: This graph accounts for changes in emissions from converting ICE vehicles to EVs in both the electricity and transportation

Impact of EV’s on Ontario’s Electricity System

$ Investment

Lots of Investment since 2000

But, Electricity Demand Collapses

135 140 145 150 155 160 165 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Ontario Electricity Demand (TWh)

Electricity Math

Electricity Price

$ MWh

Possible Solutions

$ MWh

Pull Costs out of the System

• Difficult because of

contractual obligations, but some progress being made Electrification – Increase Consumption

• Consuming surplus removes

deadweight loss from system

• Electricity can be put to a productive

use, creating jobs and building the economy

Benefits and Impact of Electrification

120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Ontario Electricity Demand

Base EV Demand High EV Demand No EVs Historical Actual Actual Projected

EVs Can Lower Electricity Prices

$141 $142 $143 $144 $145 $146 $147 $148 $149 $150 $151 $152 $/MWh

2037 Electricity Commodity Prices

No EVs Base Case High EV Penetration

Managing Electric Vehicle Demand will be Essential

12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 22,000 24,000 1 AM 2 AM 3 AM 4 AM 5 AM 6 AM 7 AM 8 AM 9 AM 10 AM 11 AM 12 PM 1 PM 2 PM 3 PM 4 PM 5 PM 6 PM 7 PM 8 PM 9 PM 10 PM 11 PM 12 AM

Electricity Demand and EV Charging Profiles

Overnight Charging On-Peak Charging Ontario Electricity Demand

Convenience charging

• ccurs at the same time as

peak electricity demand Overnight charging occurs when electricity demand is at its lowest

Unmanaged EV Demand Will Require New Generation

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Base EV Penetration, Charging Overnight High EV Penetration, Charging Overnight Base EV Penetration, 50% Charging On- Peak High EV Penetration, 50% Charging On- Peak Base EV Penetration, 100% Charging On- Peak High EV Penetration, 100% Charging On- Peak

# of New Peaking Gas Plants Required to Service EV Demand over the Next 20 Years

Electrification Strategy

Leverage OPG’s clean electricity to support the electrification of transportation Maximize use of existing clean generation investments with increased electricity demand Create new commercial growth opportunities for OPG

As Ontario’s largest, clean, low-cost generator we can help deliver a future powered by made-in-Ontario electricity.

Efficient Electrification: A balanced approach to carbon reduction.

Cost-Effective Reduction of GHGs

Ontario’s electricity has one of the lowest carbon intensities in the world.

Reduce Electricity Rates

Put downward pressure on electricity rates by spreading fixed costs over a larger amount of electricity consumption.

Canadian Clean Energy and Electrification Assessment

Task 3: Clean Energy and Electrification Assessment Task 2: Canadian Energy End-Use Model Development Task 1: Canadian Electric Sector Model Development (Underway - EPRI Funding) Task 4: Communication and Outreach

Province-Level Assessment Canadian Assessment

U.S. 2015 Final Energy Break-Out

TRANSPORT BUILDINGS INDUSTRY

Manufacturing

Potential ential for Ef Effici icient ent El Electrif ectrification ication Var aries es by En End-Use Use Appl plication ication

EVs and PHEVs Batteries for Long-Haul Trucking Electrified Transit Heat Pumps Heat Pump Water Heaters, Electric Range, Clothes Dryers Electric-only applications Induction Melting, Infrared Drying, etc. Non-Road Vehicles Industrial Facilities

Electrification Activity Areas

LEADERSHIP & ADVOCACY NEW BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES FLEET ELECTRIFICATION

Andrea Brown

andrea.brown@opg.com

Questions?

THANK YOU.