Electric Buses April 7, 2020 Michael Groh, Sam Schwartz Consulting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Electric Buses April 7, 2020 Michael Groh, Sam Schwartz Consulting - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 20, 2022 180 likes •779 views

Planning for Adoption of Electric Buses April 7, 2020 Michael Groh, Sam Schwartz Consulting 1 Agenda 1. State of the Electric Bus Industry a. Growth of Electric Buses b. Benefits of Electric Buses c. Challenges 2. Electric Bus

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April 7, 2020 Michael Groh, Sam Schwartz Consulting

Planning for Adoption of Electric Buses

1

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Agenda

  • 1. State of the Electric Bus

Industry

  • a. Growth of Electric Buses
  • b. Benefits of Electric Buses
  • c. Challenges
  • 2. Electric Bus Technologies
  • a. Slow and Fast Charging
  • b. Charging Mechanisms
  • c. Real World Performance
  • 3. Planning Needed to Adopt

Electric Buses

  • a. Schedule Compatibility
  • b. Facilities Updates
  • c. Fleet Planning
  • d. Cost Projections
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State of the Electric Bus Industry: Growth of Electric Buses

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Current State of Electric Bus Market

  • Battery-electric bus manufacturing and technology are still new but

progressing rapidly.

  • Dozens of transit agencies in the US with electric bus experience – most

with less than 10 buses

  • Currently, six agencies in the United States are operating 10 or more electric

buses.

  • The industry is currently focusing on 40-foot standard bus designs. Offerings

in the 60-foot articulated bus category are still limited.

  • Electric bus manufacturers include New Flyer, Nova, Gillig, BYD, and

Proterra.

  • INGENUITY. ACCESSIBILITY. INTEGRITY

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Electric Bus Projects in the US

  • Key agencies with electric bus experience:
  • King County Metro: 120 electric buses by 2020
  • IndyGo: 34 buses, 18 more on order
  • Antelope Valley Transportation Authority: 30 electric buses (two 60-foot),

anticipated 100% conversion in 2019/2020.

  • Foothill Transit: 37 buses, 100% fleet conversion by 2030
  • California Air Resources Board mandate for transit agencies to

transition to electric buses by 2040

  • 425,000 electric buses deployed worldwide (99% in China)

Source: TCRP Synthesis 130: Battery Electric Buses State of the Practice, Union of concerned scientists 6

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Electric Bus Growth

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Source: National Transit Database

6 8 10 16 27 35 44 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

US US Transit it Ag Agencie ies with ith Ba Battery ry Elec lectric Bus Buses

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Electric Bus Growth

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Source: National Transit Database

52 52 81 114 148 251 329 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tot

  • tal

l Ba Battery ry Elec lectric Bus Buses in in US US

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State of the Electric Bus Industry: Benefits of Electric Buses

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  • Health benefits: eliminates tailpipe

air pollution emissions

  • Reduces noise to levels equivalent

to a passenger car

  • Reduces fuel costs and

price uncertainty

  • Long-term reduction of greenhouse

gases

  • Show leadership to decarbonize

transportation sector

Benefits of Electric Buses

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Source: CTA

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Electric Bus Emissions

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Transit Bus GHG Emissions

Source: MJB&A

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State of the Electric Bus Industry: Challenges

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  • Early models had limited battery capacities
  • Ambitious manufacturer claims not matched with

real-world performance

  • Need to anticipate impacts of cold weather,

running heat/air conditioning, difficult terrain

  • Thorough planning is needed before placing

electric buses into service

Electric Bus Challenges

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Electric Bus Technologies

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Electric Bus Technologies: Slow and Fast Charging

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Two Strategies for Charger Power

SLOW CHARGING AT GARAGES FAST CHARGING ON-ROUTE

Larger Electrical Requirement Shorter Charging Duration Smaller Electrical Requirement Needs Longer Charging Duration

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Slow and Fast Charging (Example)

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Bus Layover

(10 minutes) 25-75* miles

Bus Layover

(10 minutes)

Bus Layover

(10 minutes)

Bus Layover

(10 minutes) 25-75* miles 25-75* miles 25-75* miles FAST CHARGING ON-ROUTE SLOW CHARGING AT GARAGES

Bus Garage

(2-5 hours) 150-200* miles or less

*”Real world” battery mileage vary based on technology and real-world conditions.

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Electric Bus Technologies: Charging Mechanisms

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Charging Mechanisms

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Photo credit: Autoblog.com Photo credit: ABB.com Photo credit: electrive.com Photo credit: Siemens

Plug-in Conductive Charging Continuous Charging Inductive Charging

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Mechanisms: Plug-in Charging

(Typically Slow/Garage Charging)

21 Source: https://www.oppcharge.org/

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Mechanisms: Conductive Charging (Can be Fast or Slow)

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Mechanisms: Inductive Charging

(Typically Fast/On-route Charging)

Photo credit: electrive.com

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Mechanisms: Continuous Charging

Trolleybuses require overhead catenary wire for most of their route. This is also called In Motion Charging (IMC) when buses spend significant time off-wire.

Photo credit: Wikipedia

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Standardizing Chargers

Overhead charging standard (J3105) Plug-in standard (J1772)

Photo credit: insideevs.com Photo credit: chargedevs.com

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Agency Charging Types

AGENCY Plug-in Conductive Inductive Continuous

King County Metro X X X Foothill Transit X X New York City Transit X X Antelope Valley Transit Authority X X LADOT X X Greensboro Transit Authority X X SEPTA X IndyGo X X DART (Dallas) X X Vineyard Transit Authority X X

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Pros/Cons of E-bus & Charger Types

Consideration Slow Charging in Garages Fast Charging On-Route Bus Cost ― Larger battery packs cost more. + Smaller battery packs cost less. Charger Cost + Slow-chargers typically cost less to purchase/install. ― Fast-chargers typically cost more to purchase/install. Garage Space ― Somewhat reduced garage capacity, likely need for indoor storage. + Lessened garage capacity impact.

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How will this technology evolve?

  • Maintenance costs
  • Battery prices
  • Charging
  • Bus prices

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Electric Bus Technologies: Real World Performance

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Real World Performance

  • Transit agencies should anticipate:
  • How much energy (kWh) is consumed per mile?

May increase 64% to 75% on very cold days due to heating May increase on hot days due to aid conditioning Also varies based on driver behavior (acceleration, braking)

  • Battery capacity will degrade over time
  • Not all of the battery capacity is usable (to avoid damage)
  • There should be a minimum reserve capacity drivers do not go below

(to avoid breakdowns)

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Manufacturer claims will not tell the whole story!

Source: TriMet/CTE

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Battery Capacity

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Source: TriMet/CTE

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Battery Capacity

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Source: TriMet/CTE

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Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses

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Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses: Schedule Compatibility

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Schedule Analysis

Purpose

  • Determine whether electric buses can actually operate the transit

service they would be assigned

Methodology

  • Obtain the schedules of trips that buses would be assigned to
  • perate
  • Calculate each bus’s state of charge as it completes its schedule

Charge declines based on miles traveled Charge increases if on-route charging occurs

  • Identify what service is difficult to electrify so agency can make

changes

  • Repeat for various technologies being considered
  • INGENUITY. ACCESSIBILITY. INTEGRITY
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4:00 AM 6:00 AM 8:00 AM 10:00 AM 12:00 PM 2:00 PM 4:00 PM 6:00 PM 8:00 PM 10:00 PM 12:00 AM 2:00 AM

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Example of Technology Assumptions

Considered 8 different scenarios with range of inputs:

Operation Analysis Scenario Minimum layover charge time Maximum distance between charges Analysis 1: Fast-charge battery- electric buses

1 4 minutes 25 miles FC 2 10 minutes 25 miles FC 3 15 minutes 25 miles FC 4 15 minutes 40 miles FC

Analysis 2: Slow-charge battery- electric buses

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  • 150 miles SC

6

  • 200 miles SC

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  • 250 miles SC

8

  • 300 miles SC
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Example Results:

Service Eligible for BEB Operation

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Example Results:

Service Eligible for BEB Operation

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Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses: Facilities Updates

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Where Are On-Route Chargers Feasible?

  • Agency owns the layover space
  • There is space for the charging cabinet
  • Buses have dedicated bays (not back-to-back,

not on street)

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  • Identify locations that would be used

the most by electric buses

  • More chargers can make more

service eligible for BEBs

  • On-route chargers are very

expensive…

Develop Network of On-Route Charger Locations

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Garage Charging Impacts Capacity

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 8 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 Diesel Buses Electric Buses

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Equity Analysis

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  • Deployment of electric buses

should consider social equity

  • f the areas that would

benefit

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Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses: Fleet Planning

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  • Depends on lifetime of a bus.

A bus fleet naturally turns over through one lifetime.

  • Example: The TriMet bus fleet

naturally turns over from 2020 to

  • 2036. Their bus lifetime is 16 years.

Replacing an Entire Fleet

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Replacing the Fleet

660 694 709 728 749 778 796 817 836 855 869 883 897 911 925 939 953 967 981

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

40- foot buses

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Replacing the Fleet

660 694 709 728 749 778 796 817 836 855 869 883 897 911 925 939 953 967 981

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Committed Diesel Fleet New Electric Fleet

Committed Purchases Transition Period 40- foot buses

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  • What garage is each bus assigned?
  • What size is each bus? (standard, articulated, other)
  • Is a pilot period needed before agency stops buying

diesel buses?

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Also Consider

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King County Metro – Seattle, WA

Pilot Program

  • Started in 2016 with three fast charge

electric buses running on two routes

  • Strategy of leasing electric buses from

different manufacturers Type of E-Bus

  • Fast Charge battery-electric buses

(Proterra Catalyst)

  • Legacy E-Bus Fleet:
  • 174 Electric trolleys
  • 11 Battery-electric buses

Transition Period

  • Planning new zero emission bus garage
  • Goal for zero-emission fleet by 2040
  • Aims to purchase only zero-emission

buses starting in 2020

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Metropolitan Transportation Authority – New York, NY

Pilot Program

  • Three-year pilot program started in

2018

  • 10 electric buses running on the B32,

M42, and M50 routes Type of E-Bus

  • Battery-Electric buses (New Flyer

Excelsior CHARGE & Proterra) Current Fleet

  • 10 battery-electric buses
  • 15 articulated electric models

expected in October 2019

  • MTA intends to order 60 all-electric

buses depending on lessons learned from the pilot Transition Period

  • Aiming to transition to 100% electric fleet

by 2040

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Planning Needed to Adopt Electric Buses: Cost Projections

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Costs to Analyze

Costs to Agency

  • 1. Fuel Use
  • 2. Electricity Use
  • 3. Maintenance
  • 4. Vehicle Purchase
  • 5. Charger Infrastructure
  • 6. Savings from Incentives or Credits

Social Costs

  • 1. Emissions (Tailpipe and From Grid)
  • 2. Noise
  • ingenuity. accessibility. integrity.

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Building a Cost Model

  • Create a “fleet progression” showing

what vehicles will be in use during your planning period

  • For each cost category you model,

create a new tab that follows the structure of the progression

  • Accounting assumptions:
  • Inflation rate for future years
  • Discount rate for future dollars
  • Show one scenario or a range of

possibilities?

Fleet Progression

FLEET BUS GARAGE ID TYPE 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 52 D P 54 7 55 D C 25 25 56 D M 39 39 33 20 57 D M 40 40 40 40 40 14 58 D P 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 5 59 D P 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 60 D C 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 23 61 D M 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 31 61 D C 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 59 D P 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 62 D C 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18 64 D C 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 34 65 D P 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 12 66 D P 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 67 C P 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 68 D P 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 69 D C 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 70 D P 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 71 S M 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 72 D M 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 73 D C 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 74 S N 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 75 D N 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 76 D M 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 77 S M 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 78 D M 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 79 S M 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 80 S N 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 81 S M 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 82 S M 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 83 S M 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 84 S N 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 85 S P 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 86 S N 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 87 S C 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 88 S N 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 89 S M 20 20 20 20 20 20 90 S N 46 46 46 46 46 46 91 S C 44 44 44 44 44 92 S M 25 25 25 25 25 93 S C 47 47 47 47 94 S N 28 28 28 28 95 S P 25 25 25 96 S N 61 61 61 97 S P 65 65 98 S N 18 18 99 S P 52 100 S N 31 101 S N 102 S P 103 S N 104 S M 105 S N 106 S M 107 S N

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Vehicle Purchase 41% Maintenance 42% Fuel 1% Electricity 5% Charging Infrastructure 2% Credits

  • 9%

Costs by category for diesel fleet scenario Costs by category for electric bus fleet scenario

(50/50 Fast/Slow Mix)

Vehicle Purchase 30% Maintenance 59% Fuel 11% Only costs and credit to TriMet are shown. Moderate assumptions are used. Analysis covers vehicles added 2020-36.

Fiscal Analysis: Costs by Category

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Fiscal Analysis: Costs Over Time

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$- $20,000,000 $40,000,000 $60,000,000 $80,000,000 $100,000,000 $120,000,000 $140,000,000 $160,000,000 $180,000,000 $200,000,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052

Projected Fleet Costs Over Time for Vehicles Added 2020-36

Diesel Scenario 50/50 Fast/Slow Scenario Only costs and credit to TriMet are shown. Moderate assumptions are used. All costs are shown in 2018 dollars.

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  • $300,000,000
  • $200,000,000
  • $100,000,000

$0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 Fuel Use Electricity Use Maintenance Vehicle Purchase Charger Infrastructure Clean Fuel Credits RIN Credits

Costs Savings

Electric Bus Cost Differences

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Average of moderate assumptions are used. Analysis covers vehicles added 2020-36.

  • $300,000,000
  • $200,000,000
  • $100,000,000

$0 $100,000,000 $200,000,000 Emissions (Tailpipe) Emissions (Power) Noise

Costs Savings

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Questions?