Effectiveness Monitoring of Brownsville Dam Removal Desiree - - PDF document

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Effectiveness Monitoring

• f Brownsville Dam

Removal

Desiree Tullos, PhD Denise Lach, PhD Kelly Kibler Cara Walter Denise Elston

http://home.netcom.com/~horse/digitarium.html

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http://rivers.bee.oregonstate.edu/index.html

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project objectives

• Analyze and propose dam removal monitoring

guidance – environmental “experiment designs”

• Document extent, magnitude, and drivers of

changes in Calapooia with dam removal

• Provide foundation for long-term projections in

Calapooia

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change detection and small dam removal

• lack of effect or lack of effective methods?
• Statistical significance - do means mean

anything? - Testing hypotheses about probabilities and predictability of geomorphic and biological responses

• Ecological significance – using reliable biotic and

abiotic indicators (e.g. responsiveness to disturbance/restoration, feasibility of measurement)

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dam removal as environmental experiments

Advantages

• broad scale trend development
• validation of conceptual and numerical models
• identification of dominant processes and scales
• real-world examples and observations

Disadvantages

• uncontrolled – challenges in hypothesis testing
• spatial and time frames for expectations and recovery are

unpredictable

• risk – of wasting money, damaging infrastructure, being

wrong…

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study layout

• Upstream
• Reservoir
• Downstream1
• Downstream 2

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beyond a black BACI box

• BACI – Before-After-Control-Impact
• problems with BACI for environmental

experiments

– US/DS not independent – short/absent pre-removal – highly background variability – unspecific indicators – Insufficient sampling

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ecological significance – understanding the links

field observations numerical models physical models

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the (un)usual suspects

• physical

– substrate size distribution – bulk samples, pebble counts – discharge – historical record extension and gaging – bedload and suspended sediment discharge – channel geometry, facies/features –total station

• biological

– coarse vegetation (ODFW) – benthic macroinverts (modified EMAP) – habitat quality (ODFW)

• socio-economic

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the unusual suspects – evidence from invertebrate traits

Hydrologic disturbance Hydrologic disturbance

• Reproductive cycle

Reproductive cycle

• Lifespan

Lifespan

• Body size

Body size

• Body shape

Body shape

• Dispersal

Dispersal restoration disturbance restoration disturbance

• Reproductive cycle

Reproductive cycle

• Lifespan

Lifespan

• Development rate

Development rate

• Adult ability to exit

Adult ability to exit

• Drift

Drift

• Habitat and trophic

Habitat and trophic preferences preferences

Tullos et al. (2008)

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pre-removal invert traits

Site 3 - upstream control, Site 2 - immediately downstream of the dam removal Site 1 - farthest downstream reach.

Axis 1 Axis 2

site 1 2 3

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pre-removal habitat relative to watershed? relative to Willamette Valley?

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analysis of methods and responses - sediment sampling

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Informing removal outcomes - sediment transport

Uncertainty and accuracy

– predictive equations – evacuation rates – fate of stored sediment

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Hydrology of the Calapooia

Kelly Kibler PhD – Water Resources Engineering

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Gauging the Calapooia at Brownsville:

River Discharge (Q)

• What is Q?
• measure of the volume of water that

flows past a given point in the river per unit of time

• units- cubic feet per second (cfs)
• Why measure Q?
• aquatic habitat
• sediment transport

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Brownsville Gauging Station

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Brownsville Gauging Station

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Brownsville Gauging Station

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Brownsville Gauging Station

W at ater D Dept pth at at C Cal alapo apooia G a Gau auging S g Stat ation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9/15 15 10 10/15 11/ 11/14 14 12 12/14 1/13 2/12

feet eet

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USGS Mid-section method

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USGS Mid-section method

Area X velocity = Q feet2 X ft/second = cfs ∑Qsection =Qriver

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Calapooia at low Q Easy to wade

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Calapooia at high Q- unsafe to wade

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Calapooia at high Q-

unsafe to wade- but we can use the bridge.

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Bridge gauging equipment

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Bridge gauging equipment Our plan: measure Q

• nce a week

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Historical and post-removal channel change

Cara Walter MS – Water Resources Engineering

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Flow

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Aerial photo courtesy of Linn County GIS

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Field Measurements

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Discharge Comparison

33 Annual Peak Discharge 1948-2007

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

Year D ischarge (cfs)

Calapooia River at Holley, OR Mohawk River near Springfield, OR Wiley Creek near Foster, OR

3520

Calapooia River at Holley, Estimated

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Dam crest Flow

Reservoir Channel Changes

10-08-2007

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11-07-2007

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12-12-2007

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1-11-2008

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2-08-2008

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Downstream Channel Changes

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Downstream Channel Changes

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10-08-2007

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10-08-2007

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11-07-2007

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2-08-2008

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Socio-economic Impacts of Removal

Denise Elston MS – Water Resources Science and Policy

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Why Brownsville?

• It is one of the first in the nation under the

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's new Open Rivers Initiative (ORI)

• Partnerships, working together for healthy

streams and community benefits

• Establishes monitoring and provides an
• pportunity to look at the whole story over a

longer period of time

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What Makes This Study Important

• Currently, no comprehensive social impact

analysis on small dam removal

• The opportunity to design a “template” for
• ther removals
• Learn what makes successful community

participation in future dam removals

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What is a Social Impact Analysis (SIA)?

• It is “the process of analyzing, monitoring, and

managing the intended and unintended consequences, both positive and negative, of planned interventions”

(International Association for Impact Assessment pamphlet, 2006)

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Components of Analysis

• Develop a baseline
• Identify appropriate social indicators
• Identify appropriate economic

indicators

• Operationalize (measure) the

indicators

• Ensure methods and assumptions are

transparent and replicable

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What are Indicators?

• Variables which are considered in a study

to provide information that could be used to determine social impacts that might exist in a particular community.

• A measure of the well-being of society

and of its citizen

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Potential Impacts of Dam Removal

• Health and Social Well-

being

• Quality of the Living

Environment

• Economic and Material

Well-being

• Cultural Effects
• Family and Community
• Institutional, Legal,

Political, and Equality

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• r ac

actu tual al dif differen erences be betw tween groups een groups Acce Access to to pu publi blic goods/servic s/services es (Loca

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ion for) de deli linque nquent nt be behavior havior Ac Acce cess to a to and d utilization of legal ilization of legal proc

• cedures and

res and advi advice ce t throughout ughout pr project Pe Perceiv rceived an and ac actual tual commu community coh nity cohesion Chan ange i ge in cultu cultural al trad aditions itions Occupational s ccupational status atus an and ty type of pe of em employm

• yment-

tempor mporar ary local local jobs jobs ge genera nerated ted by by th the p project Perc rcep eption tion

• f personal
• f personal

safety, ha fety, haza zard exposu sure, re, and and fe fear ar of c

• f crime

ime Di Dissatisfaction -due ssatisfaction -due to to fail ilure of re of rem removal

• val to

to deliver p ver prom

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• experien

riences d ces due to e to di disrup sruption of life tion of life Cha Change ges in la in land

• wnership,
• wnership,

tenur nure, o , or le legal gal rig rights ts Ch Change anges i in de demo mogr graph aphic stru ructure of re of the the commu community nity Exp xperien rience of

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being being cul culturally urally marginalize marginalized- e. e.g., st stru ructural al ex exclus clusio ion of n of ce certain gr rtain groups

• ups

Prop

• perty val

y values es-real real est estate ate sal sales Perc rceive eived an and ac actual tual qualit quality y

• f the
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• ups

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• f living

Leisu isure and re and recrea reation tional al ac activities and tivities and

• p
• pportunities

portunities Un Uncert ertain ainty - y -bein eing unsu sure of re of the the ef effects

• r meani
• r meaning of

g of dam dam re remova moval Ins Institutional, Le ional, Legal, gal, Political, Political, and and Equity Impac Equity Impacts ts Family an Family and Commu d Community nity Imp Impacts cts Cul Cultural al Impac Impacts Econo Economic Impacts mic Impacts an and Mate Material rial Well Well- Be Bein ing Impa g Impacts cts Qua Quality o

• f the

Li Livin ving g En Environm vironmen ent t (Livability) (Livability) Imp Impacts cts Heal Health and th and Social cial We Well ll-Being Impac Impacts

Impacts and Indicators Impacts and Indicators

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Impact: Economic and Material Well-Being

Indicators: Property values; real estate sales Example Measurement: Changes in housing prices; changes in numbers of day house on market before sale

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Indicator: Uncertainty; being unsure of the effects or meaning of dam removal Impact: Health and Social Well-Being Example Measurement: Change in knowledge about dam removal

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Impact: Quality of the Living Environment (Livability) Indicator: Leisure and recreational activities and opportunities Example: Measurement: Changes in angling types and rates

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Impact: Cultural Effects Indicator: Cultural practices and traditions Example Measurement: Changes in location of community activities

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Impact: Family and Community

Indicator: Social tension and/or conflict within the community

Example Measurement: Changes in number of disagreements in public meetings

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Impact: Institutional, Legal, Political, and Equity Indicator: Participation in decision- making Example Measurement: Changes in meeting attendance

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What Happens Next