Economics 113 Slides J. Bradford Delong http://bradford-delong.com brad.delong@gmail.com @delong 2017-01-30 key:
Last Time: British North America • Settler Population of British North American Colonies • 1610: 350 • 1650: 50,000 • 1700: 250,000 • 1750: 1,170,000 • 1780: 2,780,000 • 1810: 7,240,000 • 1840: 17,000,000 • 1860: 31,000,000 • Union: 22 million (21 million free white; 0.4 million free black; 0.4 million slave) • Confederacy: 9 million (5 million free white; 0.1 million free black; 3.9 million slave)
To Your iClickers! • 1610: 350 250,000 at the start of the • 1650: 50,000 1700s to 31 million 150 years • 1700: 250,000 later: what’s that growth • 1750: 1,170,000 rate, approximately? • 1780: 2,780,000 • 1810: 7,240,000 • 1840: 17,000,000 A. 5.2%/year • 1860: 31,000,000 B. 0.52%/year • Union: 22 million (21 million free white; 0.4 C. 52%/year million free black; 0.4 million slave) D. 3.4%/year • Confederacy: 9 million (5 E. none of the above million free white; 0.1 million free black; 3.9 million slave)
Need-to-Know: Powers of 2 • Rule of 72: T 2 = 72/g • Rule of 720: T 1000 = 720/g • Powers of 2 • What the powers of 2 are… • 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 • 32 • 1024, 512, 256, 128, 64 • 2 0 = 1 • 2 5 = 32 • 2 10 = 1024
Three Important Strains • “ Virginia ”—tidewater plus piedmont • “ Kentucky ” • “ New England ”—Puritan, followed by commercial • Two more: • Slave society: Georgia and Carolina, plus Caribbean slave colonies • Middle colonies: Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New Amsterdam (York)
Immigration: Virginia • A quarter of white population “free” • Three quarters indentured • But how do you hold on to the indentured? • Ferocious mortality: 1620-40 VA population 7K —> 14K with 25K indentured servants • Slaves: 300 in 1650 —> 13000 in 1700 —> 150000 (40%) by 1750 • What did VA export? Tobacco (and corn)
Settlement: New England • Building a utopia… • Godly and prosperous… • Timber, fish, shipbuilding, shipping… • In return for British manufactured goods… • And Caribbean and other colonial staples… • 20,000 migrants by 1640— thereafter natural increase • Not young, unskilled young men on the make… • Not indentured servants… • Healthier and closer to gender balanced…
Catch Our Breath… • Comments? • Questions?
Big Ideas • Structured repetition • All of our big ideas live in the future still, except for two • Which big ideas have we brushed so far? A. American nationalism and American exceptionalism B. American exceptionalism and American slavery C. The tyranny of geography and American nationalism D. Social democracy and Gilded Ages E. None of the above
BIG IDEAS • Which of these do you think will turn out to be most important in this course? A. Narrative: We are animals that live by it—hence by studying history… B. American nationalism : There are three: A. The City Upon a Hill: “Let it be as it was in New-England…” A. A place where we can live freely… B. “But here was Old Kentucky!” C. American exceptionalism: The American project has been astonishingly successful—in Trotsky’s words: “the furnace where the future is being forged…” D. American slavery: But the American project has been much worse than shadowed by plantation slavery and its echoes down the centuries…
BIG IDEAS II • Which of these do you think will be most important? A. Immigration: One big contributor to the success of the American project has been immigration… B. Liberty: American society has generated a large—in comparative context—but unevenly distributed quantum of liberty… C. Opportunity: American society used to deliver an unusually large quantum of opportunity—but not any more… D. Prosperity: American society has delivered an unprecedented and unequalled quantum of prosperity E. Public Interest: Growth: The story of industrialization requires focusing on growth-oriented industrial policy…
BIG IDEAS III • Which of these do you think will be most important? A. Public Interest: Distribution : The story of industrialization requires focusing on societal well being-oriented industrial policy B. Gilded Ages: The story of opportunity and prosperity is the story of our two Gilded Ages: their rise, fall, and rise C. Social Democracy: The apogee of American success is the mid twentieth century era of social democracy D. Structural Transition: Society has moved from agriculture to industry to post-industrial services, and is now moving on to ?… E. The Tyranny of Geography: Much of what has gone wrong with America can be traced to regional geography—and to the cultures that entrenched themselves in that geography…
Catch Our Breath… • Comments? • Questions?
Toward Revolution • The conquest of New France • New Orleans (1718-64 French; 1764-1803 Spanish; 1803 French) • Royal Proclamation of 1763 • “Navigation Acts” • Taxation? Representation? Quartering? Royal governors?
Thomas Jefferson’s View • The family psychodrama of Thomas Jefferson • “Why do we hear the loudest yelps for liberty from the masters of negroes?” • Virtuous Roman farmers • The corruption and fall of the Roman Republic • Britain’s Augustan Age
Benefits of Revolution? • To revolutionaries—young men on the make… • To supporters of revolution… • Costs to supporters… • Costs to others… • Tories… • Amerindians… • Slaves… • How can we draw a plus out of this? • Effects of American Revolution on European political development…
Artemas Ward, 1727-1800 • Serious rabble-rouser… • Artemas begat Thomas • Thomas begat Andrew • Andrew begat another Andrew • Andrew begat Isabel (Carter) • Isabel begat Elinor (Lord) • Elinor begat William • William begat Fonya (DeLong) • Fonya begat me
Artemas Ward • Serious rabble-rouser • Lexington and Concord • The man the spot • Military experience in the French and Indian War • Substantial administrative and logistical experience • Politically very reliable • Became C-in-C: • Organizer of the army • Decision to fortify Bunker Hill • Battle of Bunker Hill June 17, 1775 • Superseded on July 3, 1775 • Entire army marched down to New York in the summer of 1776 • August-December 1776: Battle of Long Island, etc.: from 24K down to 2K in the main field army
Catch Our Breath… • Comments? • Questions?
The Nation Built Before 1860 • Immigration and population growth • Internal improvements • Erie Canal • Steamships • Railroads • Northern agriculture dominates • The cotton gin and staple exports • Banks and finance • Manufactures • “Interchangeable parts”
Internal Improvements • North America was settled from the wrong end • The Erie (and Other) Canals… • A “national road” • Clearing snags and dredging sandbars • Steamboat: Robert Fulton • Other “internal improvements” • Paid for by tariffs • And land sales • The coming of the railroad • Allegheny Portage Railroad
Allegheny Portage Railroad
Demography: The Cold North • Population flows to the north… • Representatives “including 3/5 of all other persons” • 1800: 76-65 • 1830: 141-99 • 1860: 155-85 • Senators: • 1800: 16-16 • 1830: 24-24 • 1860: 38-30 • Why does the northern population dominate?
The Cotton Gin • Jefferson freed 10% of his slaves— including some who were not his direct genetic descendants • “But, as it is, we have the wolf by the ear, and we can neither hold him, nor safely let him go. Justice is in one scale, and self- preservation in the other …”
Price of Slaves • 1807 prohibition of legal slave imports • 1794 invention of the cotton gin by Eli Whitney • Real commodity prices falling at about 1.2%/year • Prices 3x as high in 1860 as in 1800 • What about values ?
To Your iClickers… 1.2%/year fall in price over 60 years is: A. a doubling B. a quadrupling C. a halving D. a decrease in price of 72% E. none of the above
To Your iClickers… Thus owning a slave in 1860 was how many times a bigger economic deal than owning a slave in 1800? A. three times B. one-third C. six times D. one-sixth E. none of the above
Manufactures • Steam-powered manufactures before 1860 limited to: • English midlands • Belgium • Silesia • A few others • Plus New England
Manufactures II • The tariff • “Nullification” • The resources • The culture • The “American System” • Alexander Hamilton • Hamilton vs. Jefferson
Catch Our Breath… • Comments? • Questions?
Map Exercise
Body Slide “An analogy…. The Maya Indians were interested in… Venus…. To make calculations, the Maya had invented a system of bars and dots to represent numbers… and had rules by which to calculate and predict not only the risings and settings of Venus, but other celestial phenomena…. Only a few Maya priests could do such elaborate calculations…. Suppose we were to ask one of them how to do just one step in the process of predicting when Venus will next rise as a morning star—subtracting two numbers….. How would the priest explain? ….
Catch Our Breath… • Comments? • Questions?
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