Economic Prosperity November 14, 2018 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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November 14, 2018

Educational Attainment & Economic Prosperity

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Agenda

• State Goals & Trends

– Demographic Trends – Understanding the Need and Impact of Attainment – Reaching the Goal

• Benefits of Postsecondary Attainment

– Economic – Societal Benefits

• Reaching the Goal

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STATE POSTSECONDARY GOALS & DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

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Goals

• The Virginia Plan for Higher Education: Be the best-

educated state by 2030

• 70 percent of adults with high quality credential or degree, 1.5

million awards

• What are the goals/priorities?

– Access/affordability – Student success and completion – Traditionally underserved populations – Innovation and efficiency – Workforce needs/economic development/Research

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48.2% 60.5% 4.0% 10.0% 2016 2030

Individuals w/ a degree Individuals w/ a credential

70.5% 52.2%

Virginia’s goal to be best-educated state

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Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

Overall population change is increasing about the same as the national average, but there are differences across age, racial/ethnic groups, and regions

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While younger aged Virginians make up the largest proportion

• f total residents, seniors and older workers represent fastest

growing population

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20.4% 9.0% 12.1% 11.9% 14.3% 14.4% 17.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 0 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 or above

Demographics - Age Age group proportions, Virginia residents, 2016

• 3.3%
• 4.1%

0.1%

• 6.7%
• 5.9%

4.5% 14.1%

• 10.0%
• 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 0 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 or above

Age Group Proportion Percentage Change from 2012-2016

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And Hispanic residents represent the fastest growing demographic population

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Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

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While Virginia is among the top 10 States in levels

• f attainment…

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2.0% 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 4.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.0% 11.0% 9.1% 8.6% 7.0% 8.2% 10.4% 8.0% 13.1% 9.2% 7.9% 24.2% 22.3% 22.8% 25.9% 23.2% 22.9% 24.1% 25.0% 26.1% 26.0% 13.4% 12.3% 13.5% 15.3% 16.8% 13.0% 16.8% 11.9% 14.4% 19.3%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% New Hampshire Kansas Illinois New Jersey Virginia Washington Conneticut Minnesota Colorado Massachusetts

2016 Educational Attainment of Working Age Population Top 10 States

Certificate Associate Bachelors Graduate/Professional

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…Within these total figures, there are stark differences in educational attainment among different populations. Virginia’s Black, Hispanic and Native American populations are on average ~20 points behind the White majority population.

52.2% 51.4% 32.9% 29.8% 68.1% 32.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

2016 Educational Attainment Among Virginia Residents (25-64) by Race/Ethnicity

Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

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Source: Lumina Foundation

There are also significant regional disparities across the state

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Sussex – 12.1% Falls Church City 84.5%

Source: Lumina Foundation http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation

Listing by locality provided in appendix

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There are differences in the rates of working age populations with some college, but no degree by race.

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19% 23% 35% 9% 18% 22%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% White Black or African American American Indian and Alaska Native Asian Hispanic Other

Share of Virginia Adults (25-65) With Some College No Degree – By Race

Some College - No Degree

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BENEFITS OF POSTSECONDARY ATTAINMENT

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Economic Impact

• Educational attainment data are a key component to

many state rankings (Best State for Business, Best State to Live and Raise a Family)

• A one point increase in the percentage of postsecondary

educated people lifts their wages 1.5%, and the earning

• f other citizens by 1.1%
• A one point increase in the percentage of people with

post-secondary degrees and credentials increases

• verall economic growth over ten years by one–half

percentage point

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Individuals with postsecondary credentials typically earn higher income and are more likely to be employed

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Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

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Attainment Impacts Income

15.1% to 20%

20.1% to 25% 25.1% to 30% 30.1% to 35% 35% or higher

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PERSONAL INCOME, BY VIRGINIA REGION, 2010-2014

Percentage of Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Better

11.1% to 15%

1 5 Southwest $32,561 Southside $32,160 Central $48,044 West Central $37,808 Valley $38,056 Northern $65,296 Hampton Roads $44,790

Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017, Using the nine cultural regions designated for its work.

Eastern $40,781

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Societal Benefits

Notes: Public Assistance = any public assistance in past 22 months Supplementary Security Income = Social Security for those with disabilities preventin g them from working, and their dependents in past 22 months Source: American Community Survey Data, 2016

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Benefits to the Commonwealth

Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation https://www.luminafoundation.org/resources/its-not-just-the-money

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Benefit to Individuals & Communities

79% more likely to volunteer

Individuals with an associate degree or higher are…..

30% more likely to vote in an election 38% more likely to have health benefits

…than individuals with a high school diploma

Source: It’s Not Just the Money, Lumina Foundation https://www.luminafoundation.org/resources/its-not-just-the-money

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REACHING THE GOAL

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By 2020, 67% of jobs in Virginia will require postsecondary education

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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% H.S. or less Some College, associate or credential Bachelor's Degree Master's Degree

Job Growth & Education Requirements in Virginia by 2020

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs through 2020, https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/recovery-job-growth-and- education-requirements-through-2020/

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Source: Lumina Foundation http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2017/#nation Note: Certificate and credential data based on estimates developed by Georgetown Center on Education and Workforce

• Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 6th in the nation for working-aged adults

Virginia Compared to the Nation and Other States

• However, Virginia’s educational attainment rate ranks 11th for its younger population (ages 25 – 34)

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Massachusetts Maryland

Educational Attainment (Bachelor’s and Above) of Virginia and Key Competitors,2015

Ages 25 to 34 Ages 25 to 64

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Younger Cohort Falling Behind Global Competition: Where We Are Now

Korea Canada Japan UK France US SOURCE: Country Data - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance, 2016/ State Data – SCHEV staff analysis of US Census and Lumina foundation data NOTE: State data represents 2014 while country data shows 2015 data. Virginia Prepared by the Council on Virginia’s Future, 2017

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Source: American Community Survey, 2015 1-year Estimates, B15001.

Educational attainment rates vary by age.

35-44 year olds have the highest percentage of postsecondary degrees. This could shift in the coming years as more individuals ages 25-34 earn a degree.

14% 18% 16% 26% 24% 21% 8% 8% 8% 23% 19% 19%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 25-34 35-44 44-64

Graduate or professional degree Bachelor’s Associate Some college

Virginia’s Educational Attainment Rates by Age and Type

Virginia’s Educational Attainment by Age Group

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Number of High School Graduates is Relatively Flat

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20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Virginia Public High School* Graduations - by Race/Ethnicity Academic Year 2001 - 2032

Hispanic Alone, or Any Race White Black American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander (Combined)

AY32 85,656 C AY18 84,962 AY25 90,659 AY01 66,067

Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016. knocking.wiche.edu * Total is the sum of Public School graduations and does not include Private School graduations, which data was not available in a disaggregated form. A table that includes Private School totals is included in the appendix. The Public Schools Total will not exactly equal the sum of the races/ethnicities columns, which are projected separately. Academic Year refers to the K-12 calendar running fall to spring and may include graduates from any point in that school year, including the summer after the year end.

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Of 100 high school graduates in VA . . .

72 students in 2015 enrolled within 16 months at a:

• 4-year public,
• 4-year private, or
• 2-year institution

72%

Little change in the percentage of HS graduates enrolling Enrollment in postsecondary remained between 71-72% from 2008 to 2015

Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11 25

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Percentage of 2015 HS Graduates Going to College

54 65 58 74 87 65 66 74 67 77 72

Students w/Disabilities Limite English Proficient Economically Disadvantaged 2 or more race Asian Hispanic Black White Male Female All

Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11 26

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Division Total Students Number Enrolled Percent Enrolled

King and Queen County 39 15 38% Page County 263 110 42% Westmoreland County 97 42 43% Caroline County 229 102 45% Charles City County 49 25 51% Petersburg City 172 89 52% Staunton City 171 89 52% Appomattox County 167 87 52% Amelia County 125 66 53% Richmond City 990 530 54%

School Divisions w/ Lowest Percent of HS Graduates Enrolled in College

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Division Total Students Number Enrolled Percent Enrolled

Fairfax County 12,048 10,111 84% Prince William County 5,338 4,052 76% Loudoun County 4,458 3,825 86% Virginia Beach City 4,546 3,313 73% Chesterfield County 4,165 2,984 72% Henrico County 3,125 2,246 72% Chesapeake City 2,767 2,106 76% Stafford County 2,102 1,526 73% Spotsylvania County 1,620 1,053 65% Arlington County 1,247 1,026 82%

School Divisions w/ Greatest Number of HS Graduates Attending College

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Trends by Race

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HS Graduate College Enrollment

74 74 73 72 7 73 74 74 66 67 67 66 66 66 66 66 59 59 58 61 61 63 65 65 82 81 81 81 83 85 86 87

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Asian Asian White/ 2 or more races Black Hispanic

Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11

Hispanic

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Percent of Graduates Enrolling by Institution Type

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Where Did 2015 HS Graduates Go to College?

4-year public 4-year private 2-year

19% 27% 29% 50% 50% 32% 39% 61% 45% 49% 47% 11% 6% 13% 16% 14% 10% 18% 9% 13% 15% 14% 69% 67% 58% 34% 36% 57% 43% 30% 41% 37% 39% Students with Disabilities Limited English Proficient Students Economically Disadvantaged 2 or More White Hispanic Black Asian Male Female All Students

Source: Virginia Department of Education. Postsecondary enrollment report https://p1pe.doe.virginia.gov/postsec_public/postsec.do?dowhat=LOAD_REPORT_C11

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Pell Undergraduate Enrollment Distribution 2016-17

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Source: All students http://research.schev.edu//fair/pell_trend_report.asp Public 4-year, 45,240 Private,nonprofit, 39,760 Public 2-year, 60,659

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Pell Undergraduate Enrollment Trends

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18% 23% 26% 27% 27% 26% 27% 26% 27% 24% 32% 38% 41% 41% 42% 41% 37% 35% 30% 40% 46% 51% 50% 50% 49% 48% 46%

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Public 4-year Public 2-year Private Nonprofi

Private non-profit Public 2-year Public 4-year Source: http://research.schev.edu//fair/pell_trend_report.asp

Percent of Total Enrollments by Institution Type

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Virginia Plan Measure: Success

Source: http://research.schev.edu/gradrates/success_index.asp 2011-12 for 4-year/2013-14 for 2-year within 100% time frame

Target: Annually improve completion rates that close the gap between underrepresented populations and traditional students by 2030

Note: Underrepresented populations include those who are minority race/ethnicity, students ages 25 and older, low-income or from areas of the state in the lowest quintile for postsecondary attainment. Completion is measured by the student success index which includes students who graduate or remain enrolled at any Virginia institution within the measurement timeframe. The Student Success index is a broader measure than traditional graduation rates as it includes all students, including full-time, part- time, transfer and first-time in college students. In addition, success is counted by students who either graduate at their institution or another institution or remain enrolled after the measurement period.

Underrepresented populations Non-underrepresented populations

Completion/Success Index for Public Institutions

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Success Index Public 4-Year (Normal time)

64% 70% 61% 60% 71% 65% 70% 68% Students of Color Majority Students Pell at Entry Age 25 or older at entry Age 17-19 at entry Male Female All

Success Index Public 4-Year (Normal time)

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Success Index Public 2-Year (Normal time)

34% 41% 24% 20% 34% 37% 38% 38% Students of Color Majority Students Pell at Entry Age 25 or older at entry Age 17-19 at entry Male Female All

Success Index Public 2-Year (Normal time)

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6-year graduation rates by income are improving, but gaps remain largely the same

54% 57% 65% 69% 75% 77%

2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

VA Public 4-year Institutions

High Income Middle Income Low Income

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Source: http://research.schev.edu//gradrates/CHL_EconTrendsHeac.asp

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Attainment Rates in Rural Virginia

• Educational attainment in the Commonwealth’s “rural

horseshoe” lags the remainder of the state – If the rural horseshoe were its own state of nearly 2.1 million residents, it would be tied with Arkansas at 50th and ranked between Mississippi and West Virginia with only 19% of its residents holding a bachelor’s degree or higher – and 19% of adults fail to graduate high school – Nearly 1 in 3 adults are not in the workforce in Southside and Southwest Virginia

Source: Virginia Community Colleges, Rural Virginia Horseshoe Initiative 37

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Individuals with Credits Earned and No Degree at a VA Public or Private, Nonprofit Institution

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Total Individuals Earning wages less than $44k 0-10 credits 318,808 257,315 11-29 credits 180,752 152,302 30-59 credits 101,861 87,643 60-89 credits 33,450 31,696 90+ 13,039 12,301 Total Credits 647,910 541,257

Source: SCHEV research Notes: Credits--Virginians Enrolled in Public and Nonprofit Private Colleges between 1992-93 and 2012-2013 who Passed at Least One Class with a "D" or Better. Earnings—Earnings are based on years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015

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Virginia Plan Measure: Awards

Target: Grant 1.5 million undergraduate degrees and workforce credentials by 2030, including those that close the gap in unfilled jobs

Source: Commonwealth Degree, Certificate Completion Scorecard http://research.schev.edu/completions/completion_scorecard.asp

Actual and Projected Cumulative Awards to reach 1.5 million Target by 2030 Projections Actuals

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Virginia Attainment Rates by County and Independent City

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Sussex 12.1% Scott 22.6% Wythe 26.7% Pulaski 30.4% Greensville 14.0% Grayson 22.7% Tazewell 26.7% Campbell 30.5% Covington City 17.0% Russell 23.2% Carroll 26.8% Portsmouth City 30.6% Buckingham 17.1% Nottoway 23.3% Mecklenburg 26.9% Orange 30.6% Buchanan 18.7% Highland 23.3% Halifax 26.9% Franklin 30.7% Page 18.9% Bland 23.5% Alleghany 27.1% Prince Edward 31.6% Essex 19.6% Southhampton 23.6% Louisa 27.3% Madison 31.6% Charles City County 19.6% Dinwiddie 24.0% King William 27.4% Surry 31.7% Lunenburg 19.9% Charlotte 24.4% Caroline 27.5% Prince George 31.8% Lee 20.0% Patrick 25.0% Emporia City 28.4% Rockingham 32.0% Hopewell City 20.1% Buena Vista City 25.0% Appomattox 28.4% Danville City 32.1% Galax City 20.2% Craig 25.2% Bath 28.8% Greene 32.3% Richmond 20.6% Waynesboro City 25.3% Northhampton 29.1% Colonial Heights City 32.4% Dickenson 20.7% Accomack 25.4% Martinsville City 29.4% Lancaster 32.5% Petersburg City 21.5% Westmoreland 25.6% Amherst 29.4% Middlesex 32.9% Cumberland 21.9% Smyth 26.0% Floyd 29.9% Roanoke City 33.1% Amelia 22.4% Henry 26.2% Culpepper 30.0% Bristol City 33.3% King and Queen 22.5% Giles 26.2% Northumberland 30.1% Rockbridge 33.5% Brunswick 22.5% Shenandoah 26.4% Augusta 30.1% Nelson 34.3% Wise 22.6% Pittsylvania 26.6% Warren 30.3% Hampton City 34.8%

Source: Lumina Foundation

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Virginia Attainment Rates by County and Independent City

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Franklin City 34.8% Staunton City 41.1% Radford City 52.8% Newport News City 35.1% Rappahannock 41.5% Charlottesville City 55.9% Norfolk City 35.2% Salem City 41.8% York 56.0% New Kent 35.3% Chesapeake City 41.8% Montgomery 56.9% Gloucester 35.3% Fauquier 42.1% Williamsburg City 57.0% Manassas Park City 36.1% Fredericksburg City 42.4% Lexington City 59.9% Washington 36.3% Clarke 42.8% Albemarle 61.1% Matthews 36.7% Lynchburg City 43.0% Fairfax City 63.5% Norton City 37.0% Richmond City 43.2% Loudon 66.6% Manassas City 37.0% Harrisonburg City 43.6% Fairfax 66.7% Winchester City 37.4% Virginia Beach City 45.6% Alexandria City 67.0% Powhatan 37.4% Goochland 45.8% Arlington 78.7% Isle of Wight 37.6% Stafford 46.4% Falls Church City 84.5% Sffolk City 37.9% Chesterfield 47.0% Spotsylvania 38.1% Prince William 47.5% Bedford 38.3% Hanover 48.4% Fluvanna 38.7% Poquoson City 49.3% Botetourt 38.8% Roanoke 49.4% Frederick 40.2% Henrico 50.2% King George 41.0% James City County 52.1%

Source: Lumina Foundation

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Virginia High School Graduations

43 Source: www.knocking.wiche.edu

Hispanic School Year Hispanic Alone, or Any Race White Black American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander (Combined) AY01 2,342 45,339 14,930 145 3,311 71,537 5,470 66,067 AY02 2,454 45,485 15,084 143 3,353 72,254 5,735 66,519 AY03 2,894 48,605 16,896 150 3,716 78,943 6,000 72,943 AY04 2,956 48,300 16,751 156 3,591 78,119 6,077 72,042 AY05 3,556 48,428 17,042 178 4,013 80,761 7,094 73,667 AY06 3,537 46,010 15,774 198 4,078 76,992 7,395 69,597 AY07 3,916 47,804 16,982 181 4,310 80,910 6,913 73,997 AY08 4,394 49,155 17,960 200 4,689 84,625 7,256 77,369 AY09 4,960 49,490 18,961 240 4,758 86,162 6,511 79,651 AY10 5,508 49,860 19,642 260 4,970 88,003 6,492 81,511 AY11 6,901 50,088 20,308 300 5,299 113 2,712 89,297 6,402 82,895 AY12 7,542 50,041 20,218 270 5,266 108 2,966 89,956 6,620 83,336 AY13 8,055 49,991 19,430 277 5,525 110 3,276 89,890 6,611 83,279 AY14 8,094 49,356 18,855 270 5,873 88,589 6,099 82,490 AY15 8,654 48,572 18,729 285 5,789 87,856 5,935 81,921 AY16 9,490 48,590 19,052 282 6,012 88,707 5,848 82,859 Public High School Graduations Total High School Graduations GRAND TOTAL PRIVATE SCHOOLS TOTAL* PUBLIC SCHOOLS TOTAL Available Data for Additional Race Categories Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander Two or More Races Non-Hispanic

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Virginia High School Graduations

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Hispanic School Year Hispanic Alone, or Any Race White Black American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander (Combined) AY17 10,103 48,303 18,507 298 6,053 87,930 5,570 82,360 AY18 10,996 49,258 19,105 259 6,649 90,456 5,494 84,962 AY19 11,722 49,173 18,655 261 6,967 90,213 5,203 85,010 AY20 12,765 48,261 18,605 275 7,301 89,790 4,935 84,855 AY21 13,347 48,370 18,288 260 7,649 89,657 4,772 84,885 AY22 14,561 49,151 18,278 259 8,008 91,059 4,595 86,465 AY23 15,694 48,584 18,451 299 8,107 91,009 4,334 86,676 AY24 17,232 48,975 18,859 335 8,348 93,342 4,931 88,411 AY25 18,759 49,684 19,493 360 8,636 95,632 4,974 90,659 AY26 17,722 48,386 19,139 362 8,621 93,457 4,806 88,651 AY27 16,848 47,532 18,923 342 8,865 91,822 4,684 87,138 AY28 15,328 47,468 18,344 338 8,790 89,939 4,586 85,353 AY29 15,315 47,487 17,946 246 8,772 89,654 4,616 85,038 AY30 15,928 47,246 18,007 416 9,067 90,093 4,632 85,461 AY31 16,112 46,621 17,964 471 8,742 89,309 4,582 84,727 AY32 16,602 47,086 17,716 377 9,303 90,284 4,628 85,656 Public High School Graduations Total High School Graduations GRAND TOTAL PRIVATE SCHOOLS TOTAL* PUBLIC SCHOOLS TOTAL Non-Hispanic