Econom omis ist By: Anirban an Basu Sage e Policy cy Group, Inc - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Return rn of the Econom

• mis

ist

By: Anirban an Basu

Sage e Policy cy Group, Inc.

On Behalf of Direct Marketing Association of Washington

May 6th, 2020

COVID-19 19 Economic Updat ate

Ring Verse Three Rings s for the Elven en-ki kings ngs under er the sky, Seven for the Dwarf-lords in their halls of stone, Nine for Mortal Men doomed to die, One for the Dark Lord on his dark throne, In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie, One ring to rule them all, one ring to find them, One ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them

Coronavirus us COVID-19 19 Global Cumulative ve Confirmed Cases

January 22nd – May 4th

Source: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Cumulative Confirmed COVID 19 Cases (Thousands)

Coronavirus us COVID-19 19 Global Cumulative ve Confirmed Cases

As of 5/4/2020

Source: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

Total Confirmed: 3,524,429 | Total Deaths: 247,838

Coronavirus us COVID-19 19 U.S. Cumulative ve Confirmed Cases

As of 5/4/2020

Source: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

Total Confirmed: 1,158,341 | Total Deaths: 67,686

Nine Reasons for Hope in the Kingdom

• m
• f Men (& Women)

Photo: Warner Bros

• I. There was Plenty of Job Growth on Middle

e Earth (OK, America) ca)

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, March 2002 – March 2020

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• 1000
• 800
• 600
• 400
• 200

200 400 600 800 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20

Thousands

March 2020:

• 701K

Wash shingt gton, , DC-Arlingt gton-Alexa xandria MSA Nonfa farm Employment

by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)

March 2019 v. March 2020 Absolute Change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• 2,900
• 2,400

1,100 2,000 2,000 2,400 3,000 3,400 7,800 15,100

• 5,000

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Leisure & Hospitality Education & Health Services Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Information Mining, Logging, & Construction Other Services Financial Activities Government Professional & Business Services

DC MSA Total: +31.5K; +0.9% US Total (SA): +1,504K; +1.0%

Employmen ent Growth, , 25 Largest Metros (NSA)

March 2019 v. March 2020 Percent Change

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey

Rank MSA % Rank MSA %

1 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 2.7 13 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 0.8 2 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 2.6 13 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 0.8 3 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 2.3 15 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 0.7 4 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2.0 16 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 0.6 5 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 1.9 16 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 0.6 6 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 1.7 18 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD 0.4 7 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 1.5 19 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 0.1 7 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 1.5 20 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 0.0 7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 1.5 20 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH 0.0 10 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 1.3 22 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

• 0.1

11 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 0.9 22 St. Louis, MO-IL

• 0.1

11 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 0.9 24 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

• 0.4

24 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

• 0.4

U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.0%

• II. Fewer Idle in the Shire (pre-COVID-19)

19)

U.S. Unemployment Rate, March 2000 – March 2020

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Unemployment Rate (%) Total Unemployment Men Women

Unemploym ymen ent Rates, 25 Largest Metros (NSA)

March 2020

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey

Rank MSA % Rank MSA %

1 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH 3.0 12 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 4.2 2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 3.3 12 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 4.2 15 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 4.3 3 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 3.4 15 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 4.3 4 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD 3.5 17 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO 4.6 4 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 3.5 18 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 4.7 4 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 3.5 19 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 4.8 7 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 3.9 20 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 4.9 8 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 4.0 21 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 5.1 8 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 4.0 21 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE- MD 5.1 8

• St. Louis, MO-IL

4.0 21 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 5.1 11 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA 4.1 24 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 5.4 12 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 4.2 25 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 5.7

U.S. Unemployment Rate: 4.4%

• III. Gold Aplent

nty

Growth in Wages & Salaries, U.S. Employment Cost Index (ECI), 2002Q1 – 2020Q1

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *All Civilian Workers

1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3 2018Q1 2018Q3 2019Q1 2019Q3 2020Q1

ECI for Wages & Salaries 12-Month % Change

2020Q1: +3.2% YOY

• IV. In the Baggins!

U.S. Retail Sales, March 2000 – March 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

$200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20

Retail Sales ($Billions)

• V. Your Gold Coins

s Go Furthe her

Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Food & Energy, March 2000 – March 2020

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20

Core CPI (All Items Less Food & Energy) 12-Month % Change

• Mar. 2020:

+2.1% YOY

• VI. Interest Rates are Hobbit-Sized

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, 1962 – 2020*

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

*Week ending 5/1/2020

• VII. Property Values Rise in Middle Earth

S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, February 1995 – February 2020

Source: Standard & Poor’s

80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Jan 2000=100

VIII. . The Kingdom is Under Construction n

U.S. Residential Building Permits, March 1995 – March 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Building Permits (000s of Units)

• IX. But It Goes to Elven

U.S. Stock Markets, May 2006 – May 2020*

Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Dow Jones NASDAQ/S&P

S&P 500

NASDAQ Composite

Dow Jones Industrial Average

*Week ending 5/1/2020

Seven n Factors

• rs

Dwarfi rfing ng Hope

Photo: Warner Bros

• I. Manufac

acturing ng Doth Decline

Institute of Supply Management: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), 2000 – 2020

Source: Institute of Supply Management; Quandl.com

30 35 40 45 50 55 60

41.5

*A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

• II. A Tower

r of Nationa nal Debt U.S. Federal ral Deficit

Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), ”CBO’s Current Economic Projections and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits and Debt for 2020 and 2021”, 4/27/2020

• As a result of recent events

and legislation, deficits are projected to be significantly larger in 2020 and 2021 than in 2019, with sharply lower revenues and substantially higher spending;

• CBO now projects that the

federal deficit will be $3.7 trillion in fiscal year 2020 and $2.1 trillion in fiscal year 2021;

• At 17.9% of GDP, the 2020

deficit would be the largest since 1945.

CBO’s Preliminary April 2020 Projections: Budget Deficits ($Trillions)

U.S. Federal al Deficit, , % of GDP

• 10
• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Surpluses Deficits

1970-2019 Avg.:

• 3.0%

2021-2030 Avg.:

• 4.8%
• Over the 2021–2030

period, deficits are projected to average 4.8% of GDP, totaling $13.1 trillion.

• Over the past 50 years,

deficits averaged just 3.0% of GDP.

Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Baseline Budget Projections as of March 6, 2020 These budget projections reflect legislation, administrative actions, and regulatory changes through March 6, 2020. They are based on the economic forecast that CBO completed on January 7, 2020, and do not account for changes to the nation’s economic outlook and fiscal situation arising from the recent and rapidly evolving public health emergency related to the novel coronavirus.

• III. A Mountain of Consumer Debt, Too

Total U.S. Household Debt, 2003 – 2020

Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax

$0 $3 $6 $9 $12 $15 2003Q1 2003Q4 2004Q3 2005Q2 2006Q1 2006Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009Q1 2009Q4 2010Q3 2011Q2 2012Q1 2012Q4 2013Q3 2014Q2 2015Q1 2015Q4 2016Q3 2017Q2 2018Q1 2018Q4 2019Q3 $ Trillions Mortgage HE Revolving Auto Loan Credit Card Student Loan Other

Debt balances have been rising steadily for several years and are now $1.6 trillion higher than the previous peak in 2008Q3 of $12.7

• trillion. Overall

household debt is 28.2% above the 2013Q2 trough.

• IV. How Did It Come to This?

U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Outstanding, 1980 – 2019

Source: Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA); Federal Reserve

$0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 $ Trillions 2019: $9.6 Trillion

• V. Entish:

: U.S. Nonfarm Business Sector:

Labor Productivity Growth, 2000-2019

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics *Labor Productivity: output per hour

• 4.0
• 3.0
• 2.0
• 1.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4

Nonfarm Business Sector Labor productivity % Change From Previous Quarter at Annual Rate

• In 2019Q3 nonfarm

business sector labor productivity fell by 0.3%—the first decline since 2015.

• U.S. productivity has

risen at an average rate of 1.3% since 2007, compared with a 2.1% average since the end of WWII.

• VI. Uncertainty Across the Realm:

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, 1998 – 2020

Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at www.PolicyUncertainty.com

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

• VII. The Eye is on Asset Prices:

Shiller Price-Earnings Ratio, 1980 – 2020

Source: Robert J. Shiller Data used in his book, "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press.

10 20 30 40 50 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

April 2020: 25.88

U.S. Share of Global GDP, 2010 v. 2019

Source: CNN, “America’s Decade of Dominance”; IMF

23% 25%

20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25%

2010 2019

U.S. Share of Global GDP (current USD)

Stock Market Returns by Country, , 2010 – 2019 2019

Source: CNN, “America’s Decade of Dominance”

256% 94% 76% 72% 49% 46% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% United States Japan Europe China Emerging Markets India

% Total Return, USD

Three Things that Make COVID-19 Diffe fere rent, Economic mical ally ly

Photo: Warner Bros; getwallpapers.com

• I. A Supply

y Shock of a Caliber Unknown in Modern n Times

Source: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, “Coronavirus: the world economy at risk”, 3/2/2020

Quarantines Factory closures Loss of confidence Travel bans and restrictions Cutbacks in service provisions Business and tourism travels Closure of public places Supply chain disruption Education and entertainment services

Containment measures

Supply Demand

Global Economy y was Already Fragile

Source: IMF, April 2020 World Economic Outlook; Aljazeera, “IMF: Virus outbreak will slow global economic growth this year”, 3/4/2020

• At the beginning of March International Monetary Fund

(IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva indicated in a news briefing that global spread of the novel coronavirushad crushed hopes for stronger growth in 2020.

• Already, trade wars had pushed global growth in 2019 to its lowest rate

since a 0.7% contraction in 2009.

• The IMF now projects that as a result of the pandemic, the global

economy will contract sharply by –3% in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis.

• The downgraded forecast represents a 6.3 percentage-point drop from the

3.3% growth the IMF had estimated for 2020 in January.

Growing Downsid ide Risks

Source: Fortune; NPR; Oxford Economics; Goldman Sachs; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America Corp; JPMorgan Chase & Co.

• Many economists now forecast that Covid-19

will inflict greater economic pain than they had previously expected.

• Forecasts for the U.S. in 2020Q2:
• Morgan Stanley: 37.9% decline in GDP
• Goldman Sachs: 34% decline in GDP
• Conference Board: 33.3% decline in GDP
• Bank of America Corp: 30% decline in GDP
• JPMorgan Chase & Co.: 40% decline in GDP
• By comparison, during the

worst quarter of the Great Recession in late 2008, the economy shrank by 8.4%.

• Oxford Economics now

expects the world economy to contract about 2.8% this year, a bigger decline than even that witnessed amid the financial crisis in 2009.

Which Workers Face the Highest Unemplo loyment Risk?

Source: Charles Gascon, "COVID-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk?”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 3/24/2020.

Total Employment Share of Total Employment All Occupations 144,731,220

• Employed in Occupations at “Low Risk” of Layoff

77,944,910 54% Employed in “Essential” Occupations 24,840,280 17% Employed in Occupations Possible to Work from Home 48,204,920 33% Employed in Other Salaried Occupations 4,899,710 3% Employed in Occupations at “High Risk” of Layoff 66,786,310 46% Food Preparation and Serving-Related Occupations 13,374,170 9% Sales and Related Occupations 10,443,460 7% Production Occupations 8,313,750 6% Installation, Maintenance and Repair Occupations 5,628,890 4% All Other “High-Risk” Occupations 29,026,040 20%

U.S. Unemployment ent Insuran ance ce Initial Weekly Claims, , 2019-2020 020

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment & Training Administration

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Thousands

• In the week ending

April 25th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,839,000, a decrease

• f 603,000 from the

previous week.

• Initial claims remain

at the highest levels in the history of the seasonally adjusted series.

U.S. Unemployment ent Insuran ance ce Continuing ng Claims, , 2019-2020 020

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Employment & Training Administration

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Millions

• In the week ending

April 18th, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment was 17,992,000, an increase

• f 2,174,000 from the

previous week.

• This marks the highest

level of insured unemployment in the history of the series.

Oxford Econo nomics mics Global l Outlo look: Corona navir irus us Outbrea eak to Cut Global l Growth h to New Lows

Source: Oxford Economics, Global Outlook, April 2020.

• Oxford Economics

forecasts global GDP to contract by 7% in the first half of 2020.

• They now project a

contraction of 2.8% for 2020 as a whole, down from the pre-outbreak forecast of 2.5% growth.

Ox f

• r

d E c

• n
• m

i c s’

฀ ฀

’

฀

• II. Economic

c Impact of Past Pandemics cs – This One Will be Worse

Source: Goldman Sachs

• Goldman Sachs analyzed GDP

changes during other pandemics, including the 2003 SARS episodes in China, Hong Kong, and Canada, the 1957 Avian Flu in the U.S., and the 2015 MERS episode in South Korea.

• The average episode saw a GDP

hit of 4-5% in the 1-2 quarters after the outbreak, though the variation was substantial.

Real GDP growth minus average growth over year before outbreak, pp

• 25
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15 20 25 1 2 3 SARS China (2003) SARS Canada (2003) SARS Hong Kong (2003) MERS South Korea (2015) Avian Flu US (1957) Average Quarters Since Outbreak

• III. The Cure

e is Just Oh, So Differe rent: nt: U.S. Governm nment ent Legislat ative ve Actions

Source: Congress.gov; Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; NPR News

• Phase 1 (3/6/2020)—Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations

Act: $8.3 billion in emergency funding.

• Phase 2 (3/18/2020)—Families First Coronavirus Response Act: $192 billion
• Provided paid sick leave, tax credits, and free COVID-19 testing; expanded food

assistance and unemployment benefits; and increased Medicaid funding.

• Phase 3 (3/27/2020)—Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act: More

than $2 trillion (expected to increase the deficit by $1.7 trillion)

• Direct payments to Americans; scaled up unemployment insurance program; loans and

grants for small and large businesses and governments; aid to state and local governments, business tax cuts; other health and safety related spending provisions.

• Phase 4 (4/24/2020)—Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act:

$483 billion

• Additional funding for Paycheck Protection Program, hospitals, testing efforts, and

emergency disaster loans and grants.

The One

• Recession has already begun globally and in

United States – I still expect short and vicious;

• Best positioned people work in the public sector

– greater job stability – private sector workforce will be hammered – unemployment will soon be greater than 20 percent;

• Our collective expectations as economists are

still adjusting to the downside;

• When it commences, recovery from this crisis

will be sharp, profound, and most welcome – interest rates low, pent-up demand high, need to rebuild inventories, and people anxious to meet again, go to restaurants, see a movie, watch the Orioles, and engage in other most wonderful of human activities.

Forecast ast

Thank You

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