Beyond the Obvious: Beyond the Obvious: National Econom ic I m pact - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Beyond the Obvious: Beyond the Obvious: National Econom ic I m pact National Econom ic I m pact

• f a Likely New Madrid
• f a Likely New Madrid

Earthquake Earthquake

• J. David Rogers, Ph.D., P.E., R.G.

Karl F. Karl F. Hasselm ann Hasselm ann Chair in Geological Engineering Chair in Geological Engineering Natural Hazards Mitigation I nstitute Natural Hazards Mitigation I nstitute University of Missouri University of Missouri-

• Rolla

Rolla

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 1 Question # 1 W hy should all Am ericans be W hy should all Am ericans be concerned about the im pacts of concerned about the im pacts of a New Madrid Earthquake? a New Madrid Earthquake?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

New Orleans

U.S. Dams U.S. Dams

Hurricane Hurricane Katrina Katrina

• Ask 1 1 ,0 0 0

form er Ford Motor Co. em ployees about the im pacts of Hurricane Katrina on SUV sales

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 2 Question # 2 How Could the St. Louis Area How Could the St. Louis Area Be Dam aged by an Earthquake Be Dam aged by an Earthquake 2 0 0 kilom eters Aw ay? 2 0 0 kilom eters Aw ay?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Active Midw est Seism ic Zones

New Madrid Seismic

New Madrid Seismic Zone rediscovered in Zone rediscovered in 1973 NRC study of West 1973 NRC study of West Memphis power plant Memphis power plant

• Wabash Valley Seismic

Wabash Valley Seismic Zone generated M 5+ Zone generated M 5+ quakes in 1968 and 1987; quakes in 1968 and 1987; initially suspected in initially suspected in 1993 and accepted in 1993 and accepted in 2004 2004

• South Central Illinois

South Central Illinois spawned a M 5+ quakes spawned a M 5+ quakes in 1838, 1857, and 1891. in 1838, 1857, and 1891. Initially recognized in Initially recognized in 1999 1999

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

The 1 8 9 5 M6 .0 Charleston, MO earthquake affected an area 2 0 X greater than an equivalent m agnitude quake in California

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

SHAKI NG I NTENSI TY versus DI STANCE

Midwest quakes are less frequent, but much more lethal than Midwest quakes are less frequent, but much more lethal than California quakes because there is California quakes because there is less damping less damping of seismic energy.

• f seismic energy.

Conclusion: Don Conclusion: Don’ ’t use charts t use charts generated with seismic data generated with seismic data taken from California ! taken from California !

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 3 Question # 3 W hat is the Most Likely W hat is the Most Likely Earthquake W e Can Expect in Earthquake W e Can Expect in the Here and Now ; not 3 0 0 the Here and Now ; not 3 0 0 years from now ? years from now ?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Recurrence I ntervals for Recurrence I ntervals for New Madrid Earthquake Events New Madrid Earthquake Events*

Magnitude Recurrence I nterval 4 .0 1 4 Months 5 .0 1 0 – 1 2 Years 6 .0 7 0 – 9 0 Years 7 .0 2 5 4 – 5 0 0 Years 8 .0 5 5 0 – 1 2 0 0 Years

* based on existing data; always subject to update and revision

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

MOST LI KELY QUAKE MOST LI KELY QUAKE

• I n our lifetim es, the m ost likely

earthquake to im pact St. Louis w ould be som ething sim ilar to the Magnitude 6 .0 Charleston, MO quake of 1 8 9 5 , w hich has a recurrence frequency of 7 0 + / - 1 5 years ( overdue since 1 9 8 0 ) .

• I t could em anate from either the New

Madrid Zone or the W abash Valley Fault Zone, or from South Central I llinois.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 4 Question # 4 W hat is the Econom ic I m pact of W hat is the Econom ic I m pact of Soil Liquefaction? Soil Liquefaction?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Recent sand blow s dot the landscape surrounding New Madrid, MO, testifying to m assive liquefaction

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

LI QUEFACTI ON or “QUI CK SAND” CONDI TI ON

Liquefaction Liquefaction is a failure mechanism by which is a failure mechanism by which cohesionless cohesionless materials (sand and silt) lose shear materials (sand and silt) lose shear strength when the pore water pressure equals the strength when the pore water pressure equals the effective confining stress. It is usually limited to effective confining stress. It is usually limited to the upper 50 feet and typically occurs in silt, sand the upper 50 feet and typically occurs in silt, sand and fine gravel. and fine gravel.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Liquefaction Liquefaction is predicted is predicted in the Missouri River in the Missouri River Flood Plain for a Flood Plain for a Magnitude 6.8 quake Magnitude 6.8 quake from South Central from South Central Illinois and Wabash Illinois and Wabash Valley Seismic Zones. Valley Seismic Zones. Liquefaction to depths Liquefaction to depths

• f 18 m predicted for
• f 18 m predicted for

Magnitudes > 6.5 Magnitudes > 6.5

Liquefaction Liquefaction Potential Potential

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Liquefaction Often Liquefaction Often I m pacts Bridges I m pacts Bridges

• Though supported on

steel and concrete piles respectively, these bridges both failed due to liquefaction of foundation m aterials, w hich tilted the piles

• Fiber optic cables

strung across bridges w ould also be severed

• Bridge failures during

April 1 9 9 1 M7 .5 Costa Rica earthquake

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 5 Question # 5 W hy Are Old Lakes and Filled W hy Are Old Lakes and Filled Ground I m portant Factors in Ground I m portant Factors in Predicting Ground Shaking Predicting Ground Shaking I ntensity? I ntensity?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

This 1 7 9 6 m ap show s the spatial distributions of

• xbow s, cutoffs, and islands in the river floodplains

around St. Louis.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Overlay of 1 9 0 8 Mississippi River Map Overlay of 1 9 0 8 Mississippi River Map

Overlay Overlay information on information on historic maps historic maps – – in this case, old in this case, old

• xbow lakes and
• xbow lakes and

cutoffs that cutoffs that have since been have since been infilled infilled

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Map Overlays Using Map Overlays Using Geographical I nform ation Geographical I nform ation System s System s

Briefer(s) Name(s) February 2, 2007

• The spatial positions of

the 1 9 0 8 lakes in the Mississippi River floodplain are overlain on m odern m aps of the area, to gain a better perspective on w hich areas are on filled ground; w hich m ight be subject to asym m etric site response

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Detail of Detail of Overlay Overlay

• About half of the

freew ay interchange betw een I nterstate 2 5 5 and I llinois Route 3 plots over one of the

• ld cutoff lakes show n
• n the 1 9 0 8 m ap.
• The different geologic

conditions beneath either side of the interchange could be expected to foster asym m etric site response problem s

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Mississippi River Mississippi River Flood Plain Flood Plain

• One of the m ost im portant

One of the m ost im portant GI S m ap products in flood GI S m ap products in flood plains along m ajor channels is plains along m ajor channels is a rendering of prehistoric a rendering of prehistoric channels channels

• These channels tend to

These channels tend to develop one upon another, in develop one upon another, in spatially com plex patterns spatially com plex patterns

• Note bedrock narrow s at

Note bedrock narrow s at Carondelet and position of the Carondelet and position of the m ain channel, hugging the m ain channel, hugging the w estern bank w estern bank

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 6 Question # 6 How W ill the I ntensity of How W ill the I ntensity of Shaking Vary From One Area to Shaking Vary From One Area to Another Around St. Louis? Another Around St. Louis?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Shaking I ntensity is Controlled by a factor called ‘Seism ic Site Response’

The type, depth and size of fault, com bined w ith physical properties of crust and geophysical properties of overlying surficial soils, all com bine to affect site response.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Site response is used to describe the fundam ental period of vibration and lateral forces generated by a typical earthquake at any particular site.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Magnitude 6.8 quake emanating from South Central Illinois at 110 km

Effect of Soil Thickness

• n Peak Ground

Acceleration (PGA)

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Effect of Soil Effect of Soil Thickness Thickness

• n RESPONSE
• n RESPONSE

SPECTRA SPECTRA

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

• Variation in expected spectral

acceleration w ith alluvial thickness in the St Louis, MO area

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

• St. Louis Area Surficial Geology Thickness
• St. Louis Area Surficial Geology Thickness

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 7 Question # 7 How W ill W e Construct How W ill W e Construct Seism ic Hazard Maps That Seism ic Hazard Maps That Can Address the Spatial Can Address the Spatial Distribution of Risk ? Distribution of Risk ?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Geological Cross Geological Cross-

• sections and Subsurface

sections and Subsurface I nterpretation I nterpretation

Cross section interpretation by Illinois State Geological Survey

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Digital Elevation Model of Granite City Digital Elevation Model of Granite City and Monks Mound Quadrangles and Monks Mound Quadrangles

The underlying geology often controls the topography

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Surficial Geology of Granite City and Surficial Geology of Granite City and Monks Mound Quadrangles Monks Mound Quadrangles

1 2 kinds of unconsolidated sedim ent have been m apped on and adjacent to the Mississippi River flood plain.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Alluvium thickness distribution Alluvium thickness distribution

• The depth of alluvium beneath the Mississippi River

flood plain opposite the dow ntow n area varies betw een 6 and 4 0 m eters.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Thickness of W ind Thickness of W ind-

• blow n Loess

blow n Loess

• Loess is w ind-blow n silt deposited at the end of the last glacial
• age. I t is thickest near the bluffs on the I llinois side of the

flood plain

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Am plification of spectral accelerations at 1 second Am plification of spectral accelerations at 1 second period from a Magnitude 6 .8 earthquake at a period from a Magnitude 6 .8 earthquake at a distance of 2 2 4 km distance of 2 2 4 km

• This is the frequency that w ould m ore or less m atch 1 0 story

high structures. Magnification varies betw een 2 0 and 3 0 0 % in the flood plain.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Distribution m ap of m axim um spectral Distribution m ap of m axim um spectral am plifications for a Magnitude 6 .8 am plifications for a Magnitude 6 .8 earthquake at a distance of 2 2 4 km earthquake at a distance of 2 2 4 km

• The highest am plifications occur along the edge of the

flood plain and w here the alluvium is 1 0 to 3 0 m eters thick.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Radiating Radiating Patterns Patterns

• Conventional

assum ptions regarding shaking intensity have assum ed radiating patterns of shaking intensity, em anating from the New Madrid area

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

MODOT Standards for Seism ic Design MODOT Standards for Seism ic Design Radiate from the New Madrid Zone Radiate from the New Madrid Zone

• Green lines are

ASSHTO design param eters using USGS 1 0 % Probability of Exceedance, adopted in 1 9 8 8

• Red lines are

new design param eters using 1 9 9 6 USGS 2 % Probability

• f Exceedance

values adopted under federal m andate in 2 0 0 5

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/bridge/seismic/modot.htm

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Future Earthquake Hazard Maps Future Earthquake Hazard Maps

• The

earthquake hazard m ap of tom orrow w ill likely look som ething like this; highlighting those areas underlain by unconsolidated alluvium , along m ajor river channels

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 8 Question # 8 So, W hat W ould Be the So, W hat W ould Be the Econom ic I m pacts of a Econom ic I m pacts of a Magnitude 6 .0 to 6 .8 Magnitude 6 .0 to 6 .8 Earthquake Earthquake … …. . if it happened tom orrow ? if it happened tom orrow ?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

W hat w ould get w hacked in a W hat w ould get w hacked in a Magnitude 6 .5 earthquake ? Magnitude 6 .5 earthquake ?

• Structures sitting on alluvium and other

unconsolidated m aterials deeper than about 1 5 m eters ( 5 0 feet)

• Structures or im provem ents situated on filled

ground, w here fill + alluvium thickness > 1 5 m

• Taller structures, w ith fundam entals periods of

vibration > 0 .7 0 seconds

• Em bankm ents placed on unconsolidated alluvial

m aterials, w here fill + alluvium > 1 5 m thick

• Tall structures ( > 8 stories) situated on old soil-

filled basins greater than 2 5 to 3 5 m thick

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Critical Critical I nfrasructure I nfrasructure that w ould likely be that w ould likely be im pacted by a M 6 .5 earthquake im pacted by a M 6 .5 earthquake

• Multiple span bridges; in particular, tail spans
• Buried oil, gas, coal slurry, w ater, and sew er

pipelines crossing flood plains

• High voltage ( tall tow er) transm ission lines

crossing flood plains

• Pow er plants situated along m ajor river

channels

• W ater treatm ent and sew age treatm ent plants

along channels

• Underground storage tanks

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Non Non-

• critical transportation infrastructure

critical transportation infrastructure elem ents that w ould likely be affected elem ents that w ould likely be affected

• Barge traffic on navigable channels
• Fuel pum ps m ade inoperative by loss of

electricity

• Drainage ditch netw ork in reclaim ed flood

plains

• Railroad corridors
• I nterstate and secondary highw ay netw ork
• Airport runw ays, and fuel handling facilities
• Municipal off-stream w ater storage

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Crude Oil and Crude Oil and Natural Gas Natural Gas Pipelines Pipelines

• Upper m ap show s the largest

crude oil transm ission lines in the United States.

• 5 of the 6 m ain lines crossing

the Mississippi River could be com prom ised in a M. 6 .5 earthquake em anating from the NMSZ

• Low er m ap show s the largest

natural gas trunk lines in the United States

• 4 of 9 crossing the Mississippi

River could be com prom ised in a M. 6 .5 quake

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Major Refined Oil Products Pipelines Major Refined Oil Products Pipelines

• Refined product service

lines convey petroleum products betw een refineries and m ajor m etropolitan m arkets, from w hich these products are distributed.

• Significant disruption of

the dom estic refined product distribution lines has never occurred

• The ‘shock factor’ of fuel

unavailability w ould be unprecedented, necessitating rationing

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

• St. Louis Area Pipelines
• St. Louis Area Pipelines
• St. Louis Area Pipelines

( does not show ( does not show telecom m unications links, telecom m unications links, such as fiber optic lines) such as fiber optic lines)

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Corridor of Vulnerability: Corridor of Vulnerability: Pipelines in St. Charles County Pipelines in St. Charles County

• There are 7 m ajor

pipelines crossing the Mississippi River in eastern St. Charles County

• All of these lines are

buried in the loose unconsolidated sedim ents of the Missouri-Mississippi River flood plain m ost susceptible to liquefaction

• Spillage w ould

contam inate the m unicipal w ater supply for St. Louis

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

High Voltage Electrical Transm ission High Voltage Electrical Transm ission Lines Lines Criss Criss-

• Crossing the NMSZ

Crossing the NMSZ

• Transm ission

tow ers founded on > 1 5 m of unconsolidated sedim ent in m ajor flood plains can be expected to experience foundation bearing failure, dropping the lines

• Reconstruction of

dow ned tow ers w ill be expensive and tim e-consum ing

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Highw ay and Highw ay and Railw ay Bridges Railw ay Bridges

• Only one m ajor highw ay

bridge south of St. Louis has been designed to resist earthquake ground m otions

• The new er highw ay

bridges in St. Louis, constructed since 1 9 9 5 , have been designed for seism ic loads

• The I -6 4 / US 4 0 double

deck section in dow ntow n St Louis is being retrofitted for seism ic loading

• None of the railroad

bridges have been designed

• r detailed for seism ic loads

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Dam age to Highw ays Dam age to Highw ays and Railroads and Railroads

• Upper plot show s levels of

expected dam age to highw ays in the NMSZ area

• The low er plot show s

expected dam age to the railroad netw ork criss- crossing the NMSZ

• Rail and truck traffic w ould

have to be re-routed to the north and south w hile restorative w ork is com pleted

• Data from FEMA ( 1 9 9 4 )

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Many Pow er Plants Many Pow er Plants located along rivers located along rivers

• Most fossil fuel and

nuclear pow er plants are located on unconsolidated alluvium ;

• The greatest num ber of

plants are located along the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers

• The New Madrid pow er

plant is show n at upper left

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Am erenUE Am erenUE Pow er Pow er Plants Plants

• I m pact of pow er

generation loss depends on a num ber of factors, including the tim e of year an earthquake strikes.

• Biggest im pacts w ould be
• n stalling disaster

recovery, and som e short term overloading of the surrounding transm ission grid

• Recovery tim e is greatest

single im pact on econom ic loss

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 9 Question # 9 How does the 1 ) Speed of How does the 1 ) Speed of Recovery; 2 ) Ease of Recovery; 2 ) Ease of Recovery; 3 ) Tim e Span of Recovery; 3 ) Tim e Span of Recovery; and, 4 ) Public Recovery; and, 4 ) Public Perception of Recovery Perception of Recovery Success I nfluence the Success I nfluence the Econom ic I m pact of the Econom ic I m pact of the Disaster Disaster ? ?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Public Confidence: Public Confidence: W ho w ill be in charge of W ho w ill be in charge of the recovery, and m anage it w isely ? the recovery, and m anage it w isely ?

Answ er: four separate DHS/ FEMA Regions share jurisdiction in the New Madrid Seism ic Zone

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

DI SASTER PLANNI NG ESSENTI AL DI SASTER PLANNI NG ESSENTI AL for RECOVERY for RECOVERY

• Local governm ent agencies have to develop coherent

disaster plans, posted on the I nternet for everyone to see and understand, especially teachers ( e.g. 1 9 6 2 Cuban Missile Crisis)

• Those sam e agencies need to conduct periodic disaster

response exercises

• Every person w ho w ill be tapped in an em ergency needs

to know w hat w ill be expected of them ; such as bus drivers, m edical personnel, law enforcem ent, etc.

• Disaster plans need to include contingencies for extended

loss of: pow er, vehicle access, fuel availability, sanitation, com m unications, and lifeline support

• Calling FEMA doesn’t solve any of these problem s

im m ediately, it only sets w heels of support into m otion; e.g. “calling the cavalry”

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Restoration of the Restoration of the Pow er Grid Pow er Grid

• I n today’s culture, the

econom ic im pact of being w ithout electrical pow er is stupendous

• W e can’t get along for

m ore than a few days w ithout electricity

• Businesses forced to

relocate rarely return to their original pre-disaster locations, because of the cost

Portage des Sioux pow er plant

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Hidden Costs Lurk Everyw here Hidden Costs Lurk Everyw here

• One of the hidden costs of earthquakes is their

im pact on retail business

• The 1 9 8 9 Lom a Prieta and 1 9 9 4 Northridge

earthquakes saw a record num ber of business failures occur in the w ake of these events. I m pact lasted for 1 0 years.

• Retail businesses cannot survive m ore than

about 6 w eeks w ithout m eaningful cash flow

• 7 0 % of the dow ntow n businesses in New

Orleans has been lost since Hurricane Katrina

• The econom ic im pact w ill likely extend over

several decades.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Underground Storage Tanks Underground Storage Tanks

• Underground fuel storage

tanks tend to be lifted out of the ground during earthquakes, if situated close to the perm anent groundw ater table

• This upw ard m ovem ent

usually com prom ises the feeder connections, negating serviceability

• These leaks can also prom ote

costly clean-ups

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Above Above-

• Ground

Ground Storage Tanks Storage Tanks

• Above-ground storage tanks are also susceptible

to earthquake-induced distress, especially partial liquefaction of their foundation soils, show n here.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Barge Traffic Barge Traffic

• W aterborne com m erce along the Mississippi River fluctuates

w ith the cost of diesel fuel; but continues to rise through each decade.

• Barges provide an environm entally clean alternative ( m uch

low er CO2 em issions per ton-m ile) and redundancy from rail and truck transport

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 1 0 Question # 1 0 I s There Anything in Our I s There Anything in Our High Tech Arsenal High Tech Arsenal that Can that Can Mitigate Som e of the Doom Mitigate Som e of the Doom and Gloom ? and Gloom ?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

I dentifying Critical Facilities and I dentifying Critical Facilities and Com ponents for Disaster Response Com ponents for Disaster Response

• Cellular phone transm ission tow ers
• Fiberoptic data transm ission cables
• Redundancy in electrical pow er grid
• Alternate routes and fuel sources for em ergency

responders

• Alternate route packaging for com m erce
• Realize lim itations of shelters, e.g. Louisiana

Superdom e; London underground during W orld W ar I I

• Sensor system s using GPS location fixed m otes

w ill provide m onitoring feedback in future

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Lack of Advance W arning Lim its Lack of Advance W arning Lim its Evacuation Mobility Evacuation Mobility

• Unlike atm ospheric events, such as

hurricanes, earthquakes strike w ithout w arning. There is no evacuation ahead

• f the actual event
• Gasoline w ill be unavailable in areas

w ithout electrical pow er

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

How Can Stranded People How Can Stranded People Com m unicate their Peril ? Com m unicate their Peril ?

• W e can’t send in Arm y helicopters

to rescue stranded victim s unless w e know W HERE they are

• W e can expect that an earthquake

w ill take dow n a fair num ber of the cellular repeater tow ers

• W e can also expect that telephone

transm ission system s w ill be

• vertaxed
• Text m essaging and GPS receivers

w ill soon em erge as the preferred m ethod of hailing assistance in the w ake of disasters, natural or m an- caused.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Text Messaging w ill play an increasing Text Messaging w ill play an increasing role in disaster response role in disaster response

• Text m essaging

does not require as m uch bandw idth as voice calls.

• I f low reception,

users are m ore likely to have a text m essage go through than a voice call.

http://www.smsanalysis.org/

Amount of bandwidth needed for text messaging Amount of bandwidth needed for voice calls

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

The future is here: Com m unicating w ith The future is here: Com m unicating w ith the Outside W orld After a Disaster the Outside W orld After a Disaster

• GPS-equipped phones can transmit user’s location

when calling 911.

• But what if they can’t get through? Cell towers may be

down.

• They m ay still be

able to text m essage coordinates or an interstate m ile m arker taken from phone or external GPS device, if not all tow ers are com pletely dow n.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

People have to be educated about People have to be educated about w hat to do in specific scenarios w hat to do in specific scenarios

• Extrem e events, like com bat, are alw ays treacherous

because m ost responders don’t have first-hand experience w ith such catastrophes

• Mass evacuations are difficult to plan for w ithout

recurring exercises and a through program of public

• education. Contrast 1 9 6 0 Chile quake w ith 2 0 0 4 Sum atra

quake

• You’re lucky to get 2 / 3 of any populace to evacuate an

area ahead of a natural disaster, if it is the first exposure to the natural peril ( 1 9 6 3 Taal Volcano eruption) .

• People w ith children m ore prone to leave than those

w ithout children.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

I m portance of Exercises and I m portance of Exercises and Fam iliarity w ith the Real Thing Fam iliarity w ith the Real Thing

• Em ergency responders should be provided w ith

appropriate training to develop realistic expectations: “expect the unexpectable”, learn how to innovate ( e.g. San Francisco’s loss of fire m ains in 1 9 8 9 )

• Teaching m ost effective w hen done by other

responders w ho have personal experiences to share, lessons learned ( just like com bat)

• Realistic training is m ost crucial aspect of

preparedness ( e.g. m ilitary use of live am m unition; fire fighters practicing on real fires) .

• Sending responders to other agency’s disasters is

probably our single best training option; there is no education like experience

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 1 1 Question # 1 1 So, W hat W ill Be the Cost? So, W hat W ill Be the Cost?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

@ to RECENT FEMA studies @ to RECENT FEMA studies… ….. ..

• A 1 9 9 4 study estim ated that a repeat of a M 7 .5 to

7 .7 event on the New Madrid Seism ic Zone w ould cause upw ards of $ 3 0 billion in dam age

• A 2 0 0 6 study estim ated that a M 7 .7 event on the

southw est arm of the NMSZ w ould cause $ 2 0 0 m illion in hard dam age to Mem phis alone, and $ 5 0 to $ 7 0 billion in overall dam age to the affected region

• Com parisons betw een projected dam ages and

actual dam ages are extrem ely com plex, for m any reasons, not the least of w hich is that fickle factor so aptly dubbed “public confidence”

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Econom ic I m pacts Econom ic I m pacts

Local, Regional, and National I m pacts FEMA HAZUS m odels do not com e close to accurately gauging things like:

• the infrastructure disruption im pacts ( as
• pposed to structural dam age)
• trickle-dow n econom ic im pacts, such as loss of

confidence by consum ers

• People tend to hold onto their m oney after any

sort of disaster ( e.g. 9 / 1 1 )

• e.g. record num ber of retail business failures

follow ing 1 9 8 9 and 1 9 9 4 earthquakes in California

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Other Other “ “Spin Off Spin Off” ” and and “ “Spin Dow n Spin Dow n” ” factors factors

• I n Hurricane Katrina, the governm ent is

im plem enting a plan to rem unerate those people w ho lost their hom es and personal property…

• This process, along w ith re-building, w ill likely

take 3 to 1 0 years, or longer

• Adjacent residents m ay not have lost their

hom es, but have lost: 1 ) their jobs/ livelihood 2 ) The ability to sell their hom es and relocate 3 ) Difficulty getting insurance

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Regional and National Econom ic I m pacts Regional and National Econom ic I m pacts

• W hen raw m aterials or product stockpiles are

suddenly or unexpectedly reduced/ or their flow is constricted; the new s m edia reports the POTENTI AL shortages and all sorts of speculation ensues…..

• This speculation can easily lead to inflated

prices, w hich triggers consum er reaction; and

• W e m ay w itness unforeseeable

consequences, such as a drop in sales of SUVs w hile everyone w aits to see w hat w ill happen to the price of gasoline at the pum p.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Question # 1 2 Question # 1 2 I f spin I f spin-

• off and spin
• ff and spin-
• dow n

dow n losses are tied to losses are tied to ‘ ‘public public confidence confidence ’… ’…. W hat . W hat I nfluences this confidence in I nfluences this confidence in the w ake of a disaster ? the w ake of a disaster ?

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Television and Print Media Television and Print Media

• Media coverage is ESSENTI AL to the success or

failure of any em ergency response scenario

• Media tends to search out stories that elicit

em otional responses or show graphic im ages to spike their view ing audience

• Media m arket consultants recognize that

view ers tend to select one channel over all others during any im portant event, often rem aining loyal to that station thereafter ( e.g. CNN in 1 9 9 0 -9 1 Gulf W ar; Fox New s in 2 0 0 3 I raq invasion)

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

The Public I s I nform ed Through the Media The Public I s I nform ed Through the Media

• The m edia sw iftly deployed their best

correspondents into harm ’s w ay to report on

• conditions. Live stream ing via satellite and video

phone has changed view er’s expectations of being able to w itness historic events w hen they occur

• The m edia depends on cuing from : 1 )

governm ent agencies and officials; 2 ) the public ( via cell phones and e-m ail) ; or, 3 ) from other m edia outlets ( local affiliates, w ire services, new spapers)

• They only report w hat fails; not w hat rem ains

standing

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

9 / 1 1 : An exam ple of good m edia 9 / 1 1 : An exam ple of good m edia m anagem ent m anagem ent

• New York Mayor Rudy

Giuliani inspired confidence w ith his skillful leadership and sensitivity to the em otions evoked by the 9 / 1 1 attacks

• Scattered anthrax

incidents alm ost turned the 9 / 1 1 afterm ath into a national disaster of unprecedented proportions

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Media stories tend to include lots of Media stories tend to include lots of “ “m aybe m aybe” ” statem ents statem ents

• Discovery of one incidence of

m ad cow disease in Yakim a, W A in Dec 2 0 0 3 triggered a sudden decline in beef prices and sales nationw ide, and bans on m any beef exports.

• CNN soon reported that:

“A British Health Departm ent bulletin revealed that fourteen Britons have died of m ad cow disease so far this year; scientists say that 5 0 0 ,0 0 0 people could die

• f the disease by 2 0 3 0 ”

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Headlines on hold Headlines on hold … …. .

• The potential Avian Flue pandem ic

rem ains on the m edia’s radar screen right now

• Every incident is w idely reported
• W estern governm ents are

developing contingency plans, sim ilar to those developed for chem ical and biological w arfare scenarios.

• Public anxiety in Am erica rem ains

low …for the tim e being. One incident could change all that.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Like it or not, w e, as em ergency Like it or not, w e, as em ergency responders, are obliged to court the m edia responders, are obliged to court the m edia

• The television m edia covers the

“breaking new s” as never before

• Those stories can install public

confidence or hinder it

• W e shouldn’t forget that new s

netw orks are profit-m aking corporations operating in a highly com petitive m arketplace

• Courting positive m edia coverage is

not only an essential aspect of disaster response, it w ill be good for the nation’s econom y and benefit the recovery, m ore than m ost scientists

• r engineers realize.

Earthquakes: Mean Business February 2 , 2 0 0 7

Thank You ! Thank You ! Thank You ! Thank You !

This presentation w ill be posted on m y w ebsite at: w w w .um r.edu/ ~ rogersda under folder titled “Seism ic Hazards in the Midw est”