Earth System Modeling at MPI-M Reiner Schnur and many others at - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Earth System Modeling at MPI-M

Reiner Schnur and many others at MPI-M

NEESPI workshop @ Princeton December 4, 2006

MPI-ESM: Processes

CO2 DMS Momentum Energy Water

Ocean Atmosphere Emissions

Dust

Sun

Dynamics Aerosols Chemistry

Land Surface

Hydrology Photosynthesis Phenology Respiration Dynamics Sea-ice Biology Chemistry River runoff

MPI-ESM: Model Components

JSBACH CO2 DMS Momentum Energy Water MPI-OM HAMOCC

Ocean

MOZART HAM ECHAM

Atmosphere Emissions Land

Dust PRISM coupler (OASIS)

Sun

MPI-ESM: IPCC AR4 experiments

Momentum Energy Water

ECHAM5 HD

PRISM coupler (OASIS)

Sun ECHAM5 T63L31 MPI-OM 1.5°

Specified concentrations (GHG, SO4)

MPI-ESM Ocean: Horizontal Resolution

(Only every 5th grid line drawn)

MPI-ESM: IPCC AR4 Model Comparison Overall Performance Index

courtesy Thomas Reichler & Junsu Kim, Univ. of Utah

, 2 v s m

I

A combined measure of how well 21 different global climate models simulate 35 different observed climate features (time averaged, large scale quantities).

MPI-ESM GFDL CM2.1

• Avg. of

21 models = 1.0

Normalized so that the average model score = 1.0; Values less than 1.0 are better. Lower Values = Smaller Errors (i.e., greater agreement btwn the model simulation & observations)

#1 #2

MPI-ESM: IPCC Experiments Incl. Carbon Cycle

JSBACH / HD CO2

Momentum Energy Water

PRISM coupler (OASIS) Sun ECHAM T63L31 MPI-OM HAMOCC

Specified concentrations (non-CO2 GHG, SO4)

MPI-ESM: Carbon Cycle Model (JSBACH) MPI-ESM: Carbon Cycle Model (JSBACH)

MPI-ESM: IPCC Experiments Incl. Carbon Cycle

C4MIP experiments:  Pre-industrial spinup run (286 ppm)  Anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed (1860-2000 as observed; 2001-2100 SRES A2)

• Feedback between carbon cycle and climate change

calculated CO2 used in radiation code  climate changes

• No feedback

pre-industrial CO2 (286 ppm) used in radiation code  no climate change The difference in carbon fluxes between the coupled and uncoupled runs represents the impact of global warming on the carbon cycle.

MPI-ESM: C4MIP Experiments

Annual 2m temperature

1980s 1990s

• cean

land

• cean

land IPCC TAR 1.9±0.6 1.9±1.1a 1.7±0.5 3.0±1.1a Roedenbeck et al. (2003)b 1.8±0.3 2.2±0.9 2.3±0.2 2.6±0.9 climate – carbon cycle modelc 1.96±0.07 2.18±0.25 2.24±0.07 2.01±0.25

Comparison of simulated carbon uptake [PgC/yr] for 1980-1989 and 1990-1999 in coupled run with estimates from IPCC and a recent inversion study

MPI-ESM: C4MIP Experiments

Average monthly deviation from annual mean atmospheric CO2 concentration

• bserved

simulated Anomalies of Nino3 SST (solid) and of carbon uptake rate (dashed) in coupled run

Carbon Uptake [GtC] positive feedback negative feedback

MPI-ESM: C4MIP Experiments

Carbon uptake coupled – uncoupled 1860-2100

GtC/year kg C/m2