Earnings Presentation Disclaimer This presentation contains certain - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Earnings Presentation Disclaimer This presentation contains certain - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ARDMORE SHIPPING CORPORATION Fourth Quarter 2014 Earnings Presentation Disclaimer This presentation contains certain statements that may be deemed to be forward -looking statements within the meaning of applicable U.S. federal securities
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Disclaimer
This presentation contains certain statements that may be deemed to be “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of applicable U.S. federal securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, that address activities, events or developments that Ardmore Shipping Corporation (“Ardmore” or the “Company”) expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, statements about: future operating or financial results; global and regional economic conditions and trends; pending vessel acquisitions or possible upgrades to vessels; the Company’s business strategy and expected capital spending or
- perating expenses; competition in the tanker industry; shipping market trends; the Company’s financial condition
and liquidity, including ability to obtain financing in the future to fund capital expenditures, acquisitions and other general corporate activities; the Company’s share repurchase program; ability to enter into fixed-rate charters after the current charters expire and the Company’s ability to earn income in the spot market; expectations of the availability of vessels to purchase and the time it may take to construct new vessels and vessels’ useful lives are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that its expectations stated in this presentation are based on reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such a discrepancy include, but are not limited to, the risk factors described in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), including the Company’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2013. This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities of the Company. For more complete information about the Company, the information in this presentation should be read together with the Company 's filings with the SEC which may be accessed on the SEC website at www.sec.gov.
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Agenda for Earnings Call
- Highlights
- Chartering Outlook
- Fleet Growth
- Product and Chemical Markets
- Financial Results
- Summary
- Appendix
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Highlights
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Performance and Recent Market Activity
1. Source: ICAP: TC2 / TC 14 and TC11 / TC 4 triangulation rates as of January 30, 2015 2. Based on scheduled delivery dates as of February 2, 2015
- Third successive profitable quarter with net profit of $1.86 million for
4Q14 and $1.66 million for FY14. Earnings gaining momentum from improving market and growing fleet
- Strong chartering performance from vessel positioning and chartering
strategy, with spot MR product tankers earning $18,413 / day net and MR Eco-design and Eco-mod earning overall $16,855 and $15,756 respectively
- Fourth quarter was expected to strengthen, given the favourable
fundamentals, but the oil price drop proved to be icing on the cake, driving rates to seven-year highs
- Strong product tanker spot rates have extended into 1Q15 with MR
Atlantic triangulation averaging $22,877 / day and Pacific triangulation averaging $19,905 / day in January 15 (1)
- Company will undergo significant, well-timed fleet growth in 2015,
with ten deliveries boosting revenue days by approximately 70%(2)
- In the fourth quarter, Ardmore returned capital to shareholders at an
annualized rate of 5%, through a 10 cents / share dividend and repurchase of 119,400 shares at $10.71
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Strong Fundamentals + Oil Price Drop = Rates at 7-Year Highs
1. Source: ICAP – Average of combined TC11 / TC 4 and TC 2/ TC 14 triangulation rates – 4Q14 - $23,242 – 4Q13 - $15,565 2. Source: Bloomberg, Includes all product tankers 3. Source: Bloomberg
- Low oil price had significant impact on the product
tanker market in 4Q14:
- More refined products moving at sea
- Price volatility drove long-haul arbitrage trade
- Port congestion tied up tonnage
- Bunker fuel cost down by almost 50%
- MR spot market average in East and West in 4Q14
represents a 49% increase from one year ago(1)
- Low oil price expected to improve oil demand growth
later in 2015:
- Positive impact on global economy
- Oil substitution for other sources
- Changing consumer behaviour
- Ardmore positioned ships in both regions to provide
earnings stability, with a roughly even split between east and west Baltic Clean Tanker Index vs. Crude Price Volatility(2) Commentary US Gulf Clean Product Fixtures FY14(3)
50 100 150 200 250
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14
Total # of Fixtures
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OVX Index BCTI Price Baltic Clean Tanker Index OVX Crude Volatility Index
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Chartering Outlook
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358 294
- 90
90 244 166 155 MR Eco-design MR Eco-mod Chemical Eco-design Chemical Eco-mod TC Days Spot / Pool / Open Days
4Q Est TCE: $13,689
Positive Outlook for First Quarter
31. Rate excludes income from profit share 2. As at January 30, 2015, one of the time charters contains a profit-sharing component 3. Revenue days based on an assumed 99.5% utilization
Estimated Time Charter and Spot Revenue Days: 1Q15 Estimated Days 1Q15
4Q Est TCE: $16,068 (1) 4Q Est TCE: $14,627
3Fleet Employment Profile(2)
31Q15 Est. Operating Days 1,427 Drydock / Positioning Days 30 Revenue Days (3) 1,397 Revenue Days Breakdown: Time Charter Days 742 Spot / Pool / Open Days 655 Time Charter Coverage in 1Q 2015 53% Vessel Employment
- Min. Expiration Date
Ardmore Seavaliant Time Charter Feb-15 Ardmore Seaventure Time Charter Mar-15 Ardmore Seavantage Time Charter Dec-15 Ardmore Seavanguard Time Charter Jan-16 Ardmore Seafarer Time Charter Feb-15 Ardmore Seatrader Time Charter Feb-15 Ardmore Seamaster Time Charter Feb-15 Ardmore Centurion Time Charter Dec-15 Ardmore Seamariner Spot / Pool N/A Ardmore Sealeader Spot / Pool N/A Ardmore Sealifter Spot / Pool N/A Ardmore Endeavour Spot / Pool N/A Ardmore Cherokee Spot / Pool N/A Ardmore Calypso Spot / Pool N/A Ardmore Capella Spot / Pool N/A 79% 21% 1Q 2014
TC Days Spot / Pool / Open Days
Balancing Charter Portfolio: 1Q14 vs. 1Q15 Days Comparison
53% 47%
1Q 2015
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Fleet Growth
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Fleet Set to Grow 70% by End of 2015
Scheduled / Contracted Fleet Development
(1)
3- Newbuildings ordered at time of IPO now delivering,
majority in first half of 2015
- Most are planned to be engaged in spot market
through pools, four with a leading oil trader’s proprietary ship pool
- Took delivery of Ardmore Cherokee on January 6,
2015 and commenced trading spot in a product / chemical pool
- Nine additional vessels delivering in 2015:
- 1Q15: N-2063, H-2480, H-2481
- 2Q15: S-1162, S-1163
- 3Q15: S-1171, N-2065
- 4Q15: S-1172, N-2067
- Newbuildings on schedule and within budget
1. Assumes current scheduled timetable of all vessels currently under construction
Expected Revenue Days FY 2015 Fleet Expansion
18 20 22 24 6 4 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 In Operation Predelivery 1,000 1,750 2,500 3,250 4,000 4,750 5,500 6,250 7,000 7,750 2014 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 FY Revenue Days
70% increase in total revenue days in 2015 vs. 2014
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Product and Chemical Markets
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Commentary
Product Tanker Market: Fundamental Strength
Product Tanker Orderbook and Fleet Development(2)
- Strength arising from ongoing secular trends:
- Refinery relocation closer to oil fields and away from
industrial centers means more refined products moving at sea
- Continued growth in US Gulf product exports, augmented
now by relaxation of rules for clean condensate
- Increasing complexity of trade from oil trading and regulatory
tightening (e.g. sulphur emissions)
- Unexpected oil price drop has added an extra layer of
demand which has driven rates to seven-year highs, and is expected to continue impacting product tanker charter rates so long as oil pricing remains volatile
- Time charter rates are lagging spot performance, a typical
phenomenon at the beginning of charter market recoveries, but should begin to follow
- Spot rates will continue to be volatile, but at higher levels on
average than in prior years
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % OB of Fleet Million DWT Source: Bloomberg, Drewry, Clarksons Shipping Intelligence Network, ICAP, internal market data 1. Bloomberg data from January 1, 2013 – December 24, 2014 2. MR Product Tanker Development
$30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Dec-13Mar-14Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 WTI Crude Price BCTI Price Baltic Clean Tanker Index WTI Crude Oil Price
MR Tanker Rates Increasing as Oil Prices Decline(1)
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Commentary
Chemical Tanker Market Set for Improvement
Chemical Tanker Cargoes FY 2014(2)
- Company’s existing fleet of chemical tankers are enjoying gradually
improving performance: $10,483 in 4Q13 to $11,456 in 4Q14
- Ardmore chemical tanker fleet carries roughly equal thirds refined
products, vegoils and bio-fuels, and commodity chemicals. Refined product performance improving with broader market, vegoils and bio-fuels relatively steady
- Chemical market performance has lagged product tankers but we
believe is set to improve:
- Capacity being drawn into refined products
- A strengthening of global economy should boost chemical
tanker demand
- Ongoing petrochemical expansion in MEG and USG
comparable to refinery shift for product tankers
- Delivery schedule for 2015 relatively light, so supply growth
will continue to be muted
- Ardmore’s six newbuilding chemical tankers are simpler coated IMO
2 type ships (not stainless), which should perform very well in the anticipated environment in 2015 and into 2016
- Ardmore Cherokee delivered in January 2015 and entered into a
commercial pool for mid-sized product /chemical tankers Chemical Tanker Orderbook and Fleet Development (3)
Sources: Drewry, Clarksons Shipping Intelligence Network, Clarksons World Fleet Register, Bloomberg, internal market data 1. Petrochemical exports from US Gulf expected to increase 45% by 2018. Source: American Chemistry Council 2. Based on internal chemical tanker voyage data from FY 2014 only cargo total >16,000 MT included 3. Orderbook for coated IMO2 and stainless steel ships above 10,000 Dwt only
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % OB of Fleet Million DWT
- 20,000
40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Metric Tons
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Financial
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Improving Financial Performance
Income Statement & Other Operating Data
1. EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings/(loss) and adjusted net profit/(loss) per share are non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of such measures are included in Appendix II of this presentation 2. Time Charter Equivalent (“TCE”) daily rate is the gross charter rate or gross pool rate, as appropriate, per revenue day plus Communication Victualing and Entertainment Income (“CVE”). For vessels employed on voyage charters, TCE is the net rate after deducting voyage costs incurred by commercial managers 3. Fleet operating costs per day are routine operating expenses and comprise crewing, repairs and maintenance, insurance, stores, lube oils and communication costs. They do not include additional costs related to upgrading or enhancement of the vessels that are not capitalized 4. Technical management fees per day are fees paid to third-party technical managers
INCOME STATEMENT DATA Three months ended Year ended US$ millions, unless otherwise stated Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013 Results Revenue 22.3 9.6 67.3 35.9 EBITDA(1) 8.0 1.5 22.7 9.5 Net profit/(loss) 1.9 (1.7) 1.7 (3.8) Net profit/(loss) per share ($/share) 0.07 (0.09) 0.07 (0.31) Adjusted Results Adjusted EBITDA(1) 8.3 1.8 24.1 10.8 Adjusted net profit/(loss)(1) 2.2 (1.3) 3.0 (2.4) Adjusted net profit/(loss) per share ($/share)(1) 0.08 (0.07) 0.12 (0.19) OTHER OPERATING DATA Average Number of Vessels 14.0 8.0 12.1 7.4 Fleet time charter equivalent per day ($/day)(2) 15,327 12,661 14,393 12,850 Fleet operating costs per day ($/day)(3) 6,500 6,449 6,197 6,152 Technical management fees per day ($/day)(4) 353 363 359 379 Upgrades / enhancements expensed (Total US$) 191,331 168,571 586,446 565,196
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Time Charter Equivalent ($ / day)
(1)
Substantial Upside Potential and Rates Improving Y-o-Y
Charter Rates Building Year-on-Year
$15,089 $16,855 2012 2013 4Q 2014 MR Tankers "Eco-Design"
1. Time Charter Equivalent (“TCE”) daily rate is the gross charter rate or gross pool rate, as appropriate, per revenue day plus Communication Victualing and Entertainment Income (“CVE). For vessels employed on voyage charters, TCE is the net rate after deducting voyage costs incurred by commercial managers. 2. Calculations based on existing cost structure and assume (a) a fully-delivered fleet of 24 vessels, (b) utilization of 99.45% and (c) 26.1 mln shares. Assumes no change in tax rate, cost of debt or share count.
For every $1,000/day increase in rates(2): Operating Income ($mln) EPS Existing 24 Ship Fleet $8.76 $0.34 $9,108 $10,483 $11,426 2012 2013 4Q 2014 Chemical Tankers "Eco-Mod" $13,294 $13,732 $15,756 2012 2013 4Q 2014 MR Tankers "Eco-Mod"
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Strong Balance Sheet
Selected Balance Sheet Data
Low Financial Leverage and every $1M increase in vessel values = $0.92 in NAV / share
(1)
1. 24 ships x $1 million = $24 million / 26.1 million shares = $0.92 / share; assumes no change in share count.
BALANCE SHEET DATA As at US$ millions, unless otherwise stated Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013 Cash 59.9 56.9 Receivables, Inventories and Other Assets 21.1 9.1 Vessels, Instalment Payments & Drydock 489.8 292.0 Total Assets 570.8 358.0 Payables and Accruals 10.1 6.4 Debt & Capital Lease Obligations 233.5 119.2 Equity 327.2 232.4 Total Liabilities and Equity 570.8 358.0 Debt / Debt + Equity 41.64% 33.90%
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3Bank Financing Complete
3- Strong balance sheet with committed bank financing for all
newbuildings: ~$192 million remaining available for drawdown in 2015
- No near-term balloons or final maturities
- Leverage at December 31, 2014 of 41.7%
- Weighted average interest rate of 3.77% for 4Q14
1. Assumes debt drawn in line with scheduled deliveries of all vessels currently under construction
Commentary
Debt Profile
(1)
$425.0 $233.5 $191.5 $5.2 $6.7 $7.5 $8.2 $34.0 $34.1 $29.6 $26.9 $55.2 $10.1 Debt @ 4Q 2014 Committed Debt Total Debt 1Q 2015 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 4Q 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Repayments Balloon Repayments
Debt Repayments
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Summary
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Summary
Thank You
- Earnings performance gaining momentum on back of strong business fundamentals and well-
timed fleet growth
- Product tanker rates have been at seven-year highs since October and chemical tanker market
should follow in 2015 with improving global economy
- Meanwhile, Ardmore is maintaining its cost advantage and focus on fuel efficiency & service
excellence, its core operational strategy
- Management concentrating on vessel deliveries and extracting maximum value from strong
charter market:
- Revenue generating capacity set to expand by 70% by the end of 2015
- Every $1,000 improvement in rates across delivered fleet = 34 cents / share
- The Company returned capital to shareholders at an annualized rate of 5% in the fourth quarter,
through our cash dividend of 10 cents and our share repurchase program
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Appendix
I. Fleet List II. Non-GAAP Measures
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Modern fleet of Eco-design and Eco-mod built at high-quality Korean and Japanese shipyards with upgrades to improve fuel efficiency and commercial capability
- I. The Ardmore Fleet
Vessel Name Type Dwt IMO Built Country Flag Specification Ardmore Seavaliant Product/Chemical 49,998 3 Feb-13 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Seaventure Product/Chemical 49,998 3 Jun-13 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Seavanguard Product/Chemical 49,998 3 Feb-14 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Endeavour Product/Chemical 49,997 2 Jul-13 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Seavantage Product/Chemical 49,997 3 Jan-14 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Sealifter Product 47,472 — Jul-08 Japan MI Eco-mod Ardmore Sealeader Product 47,463 — Aug-08 Japan MI Eco-mod Ardmore Seatrader Product 47,141 — Dec-02 Japan MI Eco-mod Ardmore Seamaster Product/Chemical 45,840 3 Sep-04 Japan MI Eco-mod Ardmore Seafarer Product 45,744 — Aug-04 Japan MI Eco-mod Ardmore Seamariner Product 45,726 — Oct-06 Japan MI Eco-mod Ardmore Centurion Product/Chemical 29,006 2 Nov-05 Korea MI Eco-mod Ardmore Cherokee Product/Chemical 25,215 2 Jan-15 Japan MI Eco-design Ardmore Calypso Product/Chemical 17,589 2 Jan-10 Korea MI Eco-mod Ardmore Capella Product/Chemical 17,567 2 Jan-10 Korea MI Eco-mod Ardmore Sealion Product/Chemical 50,300 3 2Q15 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Seafox Product/Chemical 50,300 3 2Q15 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Seawolf Product/Chemical 50,300 3 3Q15 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Seahawk Product/Chemical 50,300 3 4Q15 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Dauntless Product/Chemical 37,000 2 1Q15 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Defender Product/Chemical 37,000 2 1Q15 Korea MI Eco-design Ardmore Cheyenne Product/Chemical 25,000 2 1Q15 Japan MI Eco-design Ardmore Chinook Product/Chemical 25,000 2 3Q15 Japan MI Eco-design Ardmore Chippewa Product/Chemical 25,000 2 4Q15 Japan MI Eco-design Total 24 968,951
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- II. Non-GAAP Measures
Non-GAAP Measures
(1) 1. EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA is defined as EBITDA before share-based compensation and initial public offering costs and certain other items that Ardmore believes are not representative of its operating performance. These non-GAAP measures are presented in this press release as the Company believes that they provide investors with a means of evaluating and understanding how Ardmore’s management evaluates operating performance. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation from, as substitutes for, or superior to financial measures prepared in accordance with U.S.
- GAAP. In addition, these non-GAAP measure do not have standardized meanings, and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies.
NON-GAAP MEASURES Three months ended Full year ended expressed in US$, unless otherwise stated Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013 Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2013 EBITDA & Adjusted EBITDA Net profit/(loss) 1,861,883 (1,692,684) 1,660,474 (3,842,603) Interest income (3,067) (1,548) (16,444) (6,059) Interest expense and finance costs 1,172,531 460,737 4,119,283 3,464,006 Income tax 9,641 9,784 46,749 33,726 Depreciation 4,349,854 2,324,144 14,854,885 8,388,208 Amortization of deferred dry dock expenditure 564,013 365,520 2,031,100 1,420,814 EBITDA 7,954,855 1,465,953 22,696,047 9,458,092 IPO related fees and expenses
- 721,375
Share based compensation (non-cash) 347,583 351,813 1,383,121 571,321 Adjusted EBITDA 8,302,438 1,817,766 24,079,168 10,750,788 Adjusted net loss Net profit/(loss) 1,861,883 (1,692,684) 1,660,474 (3,842,603) IPO related fees and expenses
- 721,375
Deferred finance fee write off (non-cash)
- 179,816
Share based compensation (non-cash) 347,583 351,813 1,383,121 571,321 Adjusted net profit/(loss) 2,209,466 (1,340,871) 3,043,595 (2,370,091) Adjusted earnings/(loss) per share, basic and diluted 0.08 (0.07) 0.12 (0.19) Weighted average number of shares, basic and diluted 26,047,244 18,050,000 24,547,661 12,241,599