SLIDE 1 Dynamics of Social Networks of Belief Networks
Yong-Yeol (YY) Ahn, @yy http://yongyeol.com CNetS, IUNI, School of Informatics and Computing Indiana University Bloomington
SLIDE 2 Many ways to think about ‘networks of networks’
A network of elements, which themselves are networks. Hierarchical organization: a network of subnetworks (modules) Multiple inter-dependent networks
SLIDE 3
How to model societal dynamics?
SLIDE 4
SLIDE 5
SLIDE 6
SLIDE 7
social influence
SLIDE 8 Asch conformity experiment (1951)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyDDyT1lDhA#t=97
SLIDE 9
Under the ‘social’ condition
SLIDE 10
Under the ‘social’ condition
Error: Less than 1% → ~37%
SLIDE 11
Under the ‘social’ condition
Error: Less than 1% → ~37%
75% at least one incorrect answer
SLIDE 12
Smoke Room Experiment
SLIDE 13
Smoke Room Experiment
SLIDE 14
Models that emphasize conformity
SLIDE 15
But if you’ve ever tried to convince another human being…
SLIDE 16
SLIDE 17 Conover et al., 2012
SLIDE 18 Humans strive for
“internal consistency”
Leon Festinger
SLIDE 19 “The most fundamental values in a culture will be coherent with the metaphorical structure of the most fundamental concepts in the culture.” Lakoff, George. Metaphors We Live By (p. 22).
SLIDE 20
“Strict father model” (Lakoff)
SLIDE 21 “Strict father model” (Lakoff)
- The world is a dangerous place.
SLIDE 22 “Strict father model” (Lakoff)
- The world is a dangerous place.
- it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world.
SLIDE 23 “Strict father model” (Lakoff)
- The world is a dangerous place.
- it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world.
- The world is also difficult because it is competitive.
SLIDE 24 “Strict father model” (Lakoff)
- The world is a dangerous place.
- it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world.
- The world is also difficult because it is competitive.
- There will always be winners and losers.
SLIDE 25 “Strict father model” (Lakoff)
- The world is a dangerous place.
- it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world.
- The world is also difficult because it is competitive.
- There will always be winners and losers.
- There is an absolute right and an absolute wrong.
SLIDE 26 “Strict father model” (Lakoff)
- The world is a dangerous place.
- it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world.
- The world is also difficult because it is competitive.
- There will always be winners and losers.
- There is an absolute right and an absolute wrong.
- Children are born bad, in the sense that they just want to do what
feels good, not what is right.
SLIDE 27 “Strict father model” (Lakoff)
- The world is a dangerous place.
- it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world.
- The world is also difficult because it is competitive.
- There will always be winners and losers.
- There is an absolute right and an absolute wrong.
- Children are born bad, in the sense that they just want to do what
feels good, not what is right.
- Therefore, they have to be made good.
SLIDE 28
“Nurturant parent model”
SLIDE 29 “Nurturant parent model”
- Both parents are equally responsible for raising
the children.
SLIDE 30 “Nurturant parent model”
- Both parents are equally responsible for raising
the children.
- Children are born good and can be made better.
SLIDE 31 “Nurturant parent model”
- Both parents are equally responsible for raising
the children.
- Children are born good and can be made better.
- The world can be made a better place, and our
job is to work on that.
SLIDE 32 “Nurturant parent model”
- Both parents are equally responsible for raising
the children.
- Children are born good and can be made better.
- The world can be made a better place, and our
job is to work on that.
- The parents’ job is to nurture their children and to
raise their children to be nurturers of others.
SLIDE 33
A belief system: a set of coherent ideas
SLIDE 34
A belief system: a set of coherent ideas
This core set of beliefs can explain a lot of behaviors and positions.
SLIDE 35
Confirmation bias & Cognitive dissonance
SLIDE 36
Confirmation bias
SLIDE 37 Confirmation bias
Existing belief biases search for information, interpretation, memory, and so on.
SLIDE 38
The fox and the grapes
SLIDE 39
SLIDE 40
We need to incorporate this.
SLIDE 41 The wall
individuals behave.
social structures
SLIDE 42 The wall
individuals behave.
social structures
SLIDE 43 The wall
individuals behave.
social structures
SLIDE 44 The wall
individuals behave.
social structures
SLIDE 46 s1 s2 s3 s5 s4
But how can we implement ‘internal consistency’?
SLIDE 47 s1 s2 s3 s5 s4
But how can we implement ‘internal consistency’? Common ways to model beliefs
SLIDE 48 s1 s2 s3 s5 s4
But how can we implement ‘internal consistency’? Common ways to model beliefs Spins
SLIDE 49 s1 s2 s3 s5 s4
But how can we implement ‘internal consistency’? Common ways to model beliefs Spins Vectors
SLIDE 51 s1 s2 s3 s5 s4
s1 s2 s3 s5 s4
SLIDE 52 s1 s2 s3 s5 s4
s1 s2 s3 s5 s4
Maybe we should have a network.
SLIDE 53
A person’s mind
Concepts
SLIDE 54 Social Knowledge Structure (SKS) model
Greenwald et al. 2002
SLIDE 55 social balance theory
Bill Joe Jill
SLIDE 56 social balance theory
Bill Joe Jill
“The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
SLIDE 57 ME
good
ME
good
+ + + +
SLIDE 58 ME
good
ME
good
‘inconsistent’
SLIDE 59
Combining peer influence with coherence
SLIDE 60
Model
SLIDE 61 Internal consistency
(social balance)
E(i)
m = − 1
N∆ X
j,k,l
ajkaklajl
SLIDE 62 Spin model
Social influence
E(s)
m = −
2 kmaxN(N − 1) X
q∈Γ(m)
~ Sm · ~ Sq,
SLIDE 63 Total energy
H = X
m∈M
h JE(i)
m + IE(s) m
i
E(s)
m = −
2 kmaxN(N − 1) X
q∈Γ(m)
~ Sm · ~ Sq,
E(i)
m = − 1
N∆ X
j,k,l
ajkaklajl
“coherentism” “peer influence”
SLIDE 64 Two energies
Individual: society:
hE(i)i = 1 |M| X
m∈M
E(i)
m .
hE(s)i = 1 |M| X
m∈M
E(s)
m ,
SLIDE 65
Phase transition
SLIDE 66
Even a homogeneous society may spontaneously become unstable
SLIDE 67
Even a homogeneous society may spontaneously become unstable
Homogeneous population + Unstable belief system
SLIDE 68 1 2 3 4 5
E(s) E(s)
min
103 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
hE(i)i
50 100 150 200
t
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
hSg/Ni
So (E = 1) Sf (E = 1)
(a) (b) (c)
Even a homogeneous society may spontaneously become unstable
Homogeneous population + Unstable belief system
SLIDE 69
Consistency of Zealots
SLIDE 70
Consistency of beliefs (balance in the belief network)
SLIDE 71
How well can we convert the cult?
SLIDE 72
More nuanced, complex ‘truth’ may have hard time convincing a cult with strong coherence and less truth.
SLIDE 73 It can become almost impossible to convert a cult
(b) (a)
(a) (b)
SLIDE 74 Summary
- “Network of networks” as a framework to model social
changes.
- We need to consider internal consistency as a key part of the
- pinion / social dynamics model.
- Such consideration can provide explanations of many social
phenomena.
Nathaniel Rodriguez Johan Bollen
