Dynamics of Social Networks of Belief Networks Yong-Yeol (YY) Ahn, @yy http://yongyeol.com CNetS, IUNI, School of Informatics and Computing Indiana University Bloomington
Many ways to think about ‘networks of networks’ A network of elements, which themselves are networks. Hierarchical organization: a network of subnetworks (modules) Multiple inter-dependent networks
How to model societal dynamics?
social influence
Asch conformity experiment (1951) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyDDyT1lDhA#t=97
Under the ‘social’ condition
Under the ‘social’ condition Error: Less than 1% → ~37%
Under the ‘social’ condition Error: Less than 1% → ~37% 75% at least one incorrect answer
Smoke Room Experiment
Smoke Room Experiment
Models that emphasize conformity
But if you’ve ever tried to convince another human being…
Conover et al., 2012
Humans strive for “internal consistency” Leon Festinger
“The most fundamental values in a culture will be coherent with the metaphorical structure of the most fundamental concepts in the culture.” Lakoff, George. Metaphors We Live By (p. 22).
“Strict father model” (Lakoff)
“Strict father model” (Lakoff) • The world is a dangerous place.
“Strict father model” (Lakoff) • The world is a dangerous place. • it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world.
“Strict father model” (Lakoff) • The world is a dangerous place. • it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world. • The world is also difficult because it is competitive.
“Strict father model” (Lakoff) • The world is a dangerous place. • it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world. • The world is also difficult because it is competitive. • There will always be winners and losers.
“Strict father model” (Lakoff) • The world is a dangerous place. • it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world. • The world is also difficult because it is competitive. • There will always be winners and losers. • There is an absolute right and an absolute wrong.
“Strict father model” (Lakoff) • The world is a dangerous place. • it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world. • The world is also difficult because it is competitive. • There will always be winners and losers. • There is an absolute right and an absolute wrong. • Children are born bad, in the sense that they just want to do what feels good, not what is right.
“Strict father model” (Lakoff) • The world is a dangerous place. • it always will be, because there is evil out there in the world. • The world is also difficult because it is competitive. • There will always be winners and losers. • There is an absolute right and an absolute wrong. • Children are born bad, in the sense that they just want to do what feels good, not what is right. • Therefore, they have to be made good.
“Nurturant parent model”
“Nurturant parent model” • Both parents are equally responsible for raising the children.
“Nurturant parent model” • Both parents are equally responsible for raising the children. • Children are born good and can be made better.
“Nurturant parent model” • Both parents are equally responsible for raising the children. • Children are born good and can be made better. • The world can be made a better place, and our job is to work on that.
“Nurturant parent model” • Both parents are equally responsible for raising the children. • Children are born good and can be made better. • The world can be made a better place, and our job is to work on that. • The parents’ job is to nurture their children and to raise their children to be nurturers of others.
A belief system: a set of coherent ideas
A belief system: a set of coherent ideas This core set of beliefs can explain a lot of behaviors and positions.
Confirmation bias & Cognitive dissonance
Confirmation bias
Confirmation bias Existing belief biases search for information, interpretation, memory, and so on.
The fox and the grapes
We need to incorporate this.
The wall 1. Let’s focus on how individuals behave. 2. Let’s focus on social structures
The wall 1. Let’s focus on how individuals behave. 2. Let’s focus on social structures
The wall 1. Let’s focus on how individuals behave. 2. Let’s focus on social structures
The wall 1. Let’s focus on how individuals behave. 2. Let’s focus on social structures
s 1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5
But how can we implement ‘internal consistency’? s 1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5
Common ways to model beliefs But how can we implement ‘internal consistency’? s 1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5
Common ways to model beliefs Spins But how can we implement ‘internal consistency’? s 1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5
Common ways to model beliefs Spins But how can we implement ‘internal consistency’? s 1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5 Vectors
s 1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5
s 1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5 s 1 s 4 s 2 s 5 s 3
s 1 s 2 s 3 s 4 s 5 Maybe we should s 1 s 4 have a network. s 2 s 5 s 3
A person’s mind Concepts
Social Knowledge Structure (SKS) model Greenwald et al. 2002
social balance theory Joe Bill Jill
social balance theory Joe “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Bill Jill
obama obama - + - + good good + + ME ME ‘consistent’
obama obama - - - + good good - + ME ME ‘inconsistent’
Combining peer influence with coherence
Model
Internal consistency m = − 1 X E ( i ) a jk a kl a jl N ∆ j,k,l (social balance)
Social influence 2 X S m · ~ ~ E ( s ) m = − S q , k max N ( N − 1) q ∈ Γ ( m ) Spin model
Total energy m = − 1 2 X E ( i ) X S m · ~ ~ E ( s ) a jk a kl a jl m = − S q , k max N ( N − 1) N ∆ q ∈ Γ ( m ) j,k,l “peer influence” “coherentism” h i X JE ( i ) m + IE ( s ) H = m m ∈ M
Two energies 1 X h E ( i ) i = E ( i ) Individual: m . | M | m ∈ M 1 h E ( s ) i = X E ( s ) society: m , | M | m ∈ M
Phase transition
Even a homogeneous society may spontaneously become unstable
Even a homogeneous society may spontaneously become unstable Homogeneous population + Unstable belief system
Even a homogeneous society may spontaneously become unstable � 10 3 (a) 5 4 min E ( s ) � E ( s ) 3 Homogeneous 2 1 population 0 1 . 0 (b) 0 . 5 h E ( i ) i + 0 . 0 � 0 . 5 � 1 . 0 (c) 1 . 0 Unstable belief 0 . 8 h S g /N i 0 . 6 S o ( E = 1 ) system S f ( E = � 1 ) 0 . 4 0 . 2 0 . 0 0 50 100 150 200 t
Consistency of Zealots
Consistency of beliefs (balance in the belief network)
How well can we convert the cult?
More nuanced, complex ‘truth’ may have hard time convincing a cult with strong coherence and less truth.
(a) (b) It can become almost impossible to convert a cult (a) (b)
Summary • “Network of networks” as a framework to model social changes. • We need to consider internal consistency as a key part of the opinion / social dynamics model. • Such consideration can provide explanations of many social phenomena. Johan Bollen Nathaniel Rodriguez
Recommend
More recommend
