DRIVING PERFORMANCE
2020 FULL YEAR RESULTS
DRIVING PERFORMANCE 2020 FULL YEAR RESULTS IMPORTANT LEGAL NOTICE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
DRIVING PERFORMANCE 2020 FULL YEAR RESULTS IMPORTANT LEGAL NOTICE By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading this This presentation is not for distribution in the United States, Canada, document, you agree to be
2020 FULL YEAR RESULTS
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By attending the meeting where this presentation is made, or by reading this document, you agree to be bound by the limitations set out below. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision and amendment and such information may change materially. Urban Logistics REIT plc (the “Company”), its advisers nor any other person, representative or employee undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained herein. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made by the Company, its advisers or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation and any reliance you place on them will be at your sole risk. Without prejudice to the foregoing, neither the Company, its associates, its advisers nor its representatives accept any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from the use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This presentation is for information only. This presentation does not constitute an offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities of the Company nor should it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities. Past performance, including the price at which the Company’s securities have been bought or sold in the past and the past yield on the Company’s securities, cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. Nothing herein should be construed as financial legal, tax, accounting, actuarial or
This presentation is not for distribution in the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan or in any jurisdiction where such distribution is unlawful. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Any statement in this presentation that is not a statement of historical fact including, without limitation, those regarding the Company’s future expectations, operations, financial performance, financial condition and business is a forward-looking statement. Such forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ
changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. These and other factors could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described in this presentation. As a result you are cautioned not to place reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast.
PAGE INTRODUCTION 3 HIGHLIGHTS 6 THE MARKET 11 STRATEGY 15 OUR PORTFOLIO 17 ASSET MANAGEMENT 22 SUMMARY 28 APPENDIX 31
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A BOARD WITH EXPERIENCE AND EXPERTISE1
RICHARD MOFFITT
CEO Former Head of UK Industrial and Logistics at CBRE Total of 25+ years of Logistics market experience. Experience includes:
‒ Qualified as Chartered Surveyor 1988 ‒ CBRE Head of Industrial and Logistics 2010-2015 ‒ CO-Founder M3 Agency 2000-2010 (specialist logistics consultancy) ‒ Chairman European Logistics Real Estate Partners 2018- present ‒ Member Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport
CHRISTOPHER TURNER
ASSET MANAGER Qualified Chartered Surveyor 25 years of experience in acquisition, performance and disposal of investments Experience includes:
‒ Acquired, managed and traded £175 million asset portfolio ‒ Acquired and repositioned €135 million industrial portfolio in Germany
Nigel brings a wealth of Board experience, having operated across the globe in senior positions, most recently at Segro plc where he was Chairman for 10 years
NIGEL RICH Independent Non-Executive Chairman
Jonathan has considerable financial services experience having worked in senior roles at HSBC, UBS and NCB
JONATHAN GRAY Independent Non-Executive Director
Co-founded Pacific Investments with Sir John Beckwith
MARK JOHNSON Non Independent Non-Executive Director
Bruce has considerable real estate, REIT and financial services experience having worked in senior roles at Green, Lloyds, HBoS and Bank of Scotland
BRUCE ANDERSON Independent Non-Executive Director
further information see slide 32 in the appendix.
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INTRODUCTION
the London Stock Exchange
up to 200,000 sq.ft.
touch”/“last mile” locations
logistics experience within the broader real estate market
p.a. average total accounting return since IPO
DIFFERENTIATORS
Focus on “last mile”
20,000-200,000 sq.ft
Highest growth segment of industrial and logistics asset class Strategic locations
59% Midlands and South East bias¹
Area with the strongest take-up of logistics space Strong covenants
92% low/low-moderate risk²
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GROWTH IN EARNINGS AND STRONG BALANCE SHEET
representing a year-on-year increase of 20.7%
covered by adjusted earnings and represents a year-on-year increase of 8.6%
March 2020 (2019: 137.96p) reflecting the fundraise and early LTIP crystallisation1
following successful capital raise2
Adjusted earnings per share
7.66p
+9.3% (2019: 7.01p) Loan to Value (“LTV”)2
n/a
(2019: 33.7%) Dividend per share
7.60p
+8.6% (2019: 7.00p) Total Property Return
10.1%
(2019: 16.1%)
1. Market capitalisation of £121.9m pre-issue vs. £245.2m as at 29 May 2020 2. Post year-end, the Company deployed £98m into asset acquisitions. As at 29 May 2020, the pro-forma LTV is c. 15% (target 30-40%)
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SECTOR LEADING RETURNS
6.9%
Average TAR per annum since IPO
13.4%
7.82p 6.12p 7.01p 7.66p Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 6.23p 6.32p 7.00p 7.60p Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 16% 5% 13% 3% 5% 5% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 NAV growth Dividend Cumulative
Adjusted earnings per share Dividend per share Total accounting return (“TAR”) ¹ Dividend CAGR since IPO
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ACTIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT DURING THE YEAR
ACQUISITIONS
Portfolio value2
£207.0m
Total cost ratio
18.9%
Valuation uplift WAULT2
4.9 years £5.7m
ASSET MANAGEMENT
management
DISPOSALS
1. Excluding development sites
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DRIVING PERFORMANCE THROUGH ASSET MANAGEMENT
76%
Average TPR per annum since IPO
15%
Like for like increase in portfolio value Total property return (“TPR”) Driven by management decisions Capital growth attributed to asset management since IPO
10% 13% 11% 5% Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 10% 11% 10% 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Capital Income Cumulative 78% 69% 70% 87% 22% 31% 30% 13% Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Asset management Market movement
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FALL IN SUPPLY AND LOW VACANCY RATES
Fall in supply¹ Vacancy rates at c.7%¹
20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 20,000-50,0000 sq ft 50,000-100,000 sq ft 100,000-200,000 sq ft
Supply by size (sq ft) 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 20,000-50,0000 sq ft 50,000-100,000 sq ft 100,000-200,000 sq ft
Vacancy rate (%)
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STEADY TAKE UP AND RISING RENTS
Steady levels of take up¹ Rental growth forecast²
10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 20,000-50,0000 sq ft 50,000-100,000 sq ft 100,000-200,000 sq ft
Take up by size (sq ft)
Annualised 2020 2021 2022 2020-2022 Standard Industrials: London 5.6 4.6 2.3 4.2 Inner South East 4.9 2.2 0.3 2.5 Outer South East 3.7 1.9 0.4 2.0 Rest of UK 2.4 2.2 1.3 2.0 Distribution Warehouses 2.8 1.7 0.4 1.6
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STRUCTURAL TAILWINDS
E-commerce as % of total retail sales Structural not cyclical drivers Current lands values and average rents
Region £ per acre Rent per sq.ft Leeds 650,000 £6.75 Manchester 900,000 £7.75 Coventry 950,000 £6.95 Northampton 950,000 £7.25 Leicester 750,000 £6.75 Reading 2,000,000 £11.75
13% 15% 16% 18% 19% 25% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 F'cast 2022
retail sales in 2019
retail sales for March 2020
space creating upward pressure on rent and land values
major UK conurbations
Source: Oxford Economics Source: Colliers Source: Office of National Statistics, Retail Economics
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HOW WE CREATE VALUE FOR OUR SHAREHOLDERS
BUY WELL ASSET MANAGEMENT PROVING VALUES
4.9% average disposal yield
8% average premium to book value since IPO1 50% total property return generated from assets sold in the year 4 rent reviews and 3 new lettings completed in the year 38% average LFL income growth for rent reviews settled in the year 87% of valuation uplift achieved in the year through asset management 70 assets acquired since IPO1 6.9% average purchase yield on properties acquired since IPO1,2 30-70% replacement cost
VALUE CREATION
average EPRA NAV per share growth pa since IPO
average Total Accounting Return pa since IPO
1. Based on properties acquired and disposed from IPO to 29 May 2020 2. The average purchase yield excludes forward funded assets
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AT A GLANCE
Portfolio value1
£305.0m
Area1
3.7m sq. ft
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Valuation NIY1
5.9%
Contracted rent4
£18.7m
Purchase NIY3
6.9%
92.2% 6.4% 1.4% Low/low-moderate Moderate Moderate-high/high 19
WELL LOCATED WITH HIGH QUALITY TENANTS
Tenant diversity1 Location1 Gross to net rent FY20 Tenant credit ratings1,2 EPC ratings1,3
98.3% 1.7% Gross rent Income leakage
20.1% 38.9% 18.3% 11.0% 11.7% South East Midlands North East & Yorkshire North West Other 44.4% 21.0% 34.6% Third party logistics SME Large corporate 1.5% 8.7% 69.0% 15.4% 5.4% A B C D E
10.5% 7.7% 6.3% 6.2% 5.3% 5.3% 4.4% 4.0% 3.1% 2.8% Unipart Group (NHS) XPO Pegler Yorkshire (Aalberts Industries) DHL Culina Logistics Giant Booker (Tesco plc) Tuffnells Parcel Express Agility Logistics Hillary's Blinds OTC Direct (Boots plc) 20
CREATING DEPENDABLE INCOME GROWTH
LFL CONTRACTED RENTAL INCOME GROWTH CONTRACTUAL RENT REVIEWS 2 TOP 10 TENANTS (% OF CONTRACTED INCOME) 1
17.3% 8.6% 18.5% 0-1 year 1-2 years 3-5 years 2.9% 4.8% 2.0% 3.4% Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20
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OPPORTUNITY TO CREATE VALUE
WAULT BY CONTRACTED RENT1 VALUATION YIELD1,2
37% 33% 31%
0-3 years 4-5 years 6+ years
6.8% 6.3% 5.6%
0-3 years 4-5 years 6+ years
SHORT LEASES PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY1
WAULT of 4.9 years at 31 March 2020
Average like-for-like income growth on:
Rent reviews
New lettings
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INVESTMENT ACTIVITY
ACQUISITIONS ¹ DISPOSALS
£20.7m off-market acquisitions, last mile logistics and parcel depots, 100% occupied 85% Midlands/South-East 6.4% blended NIY £18.4m selective asset disposals Recycled into higher yielding assets On average 5.4% ahead of last valuation 50% total property return
TUFFNELLS PORTFOLIO POSTLEY ROAD
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ACQUISITION – TUFFNELLS PORTFOLIO
THE PORTFOLIO Six parcel distribution depots acquired from Connect Group plc for £10m at 7.0% NIY. Low site cover of 18% Distributor specialising in irregular dimensions and weights Located in urban locations 20 year 1-4% cap and collar leases 70% Midlands/South East COVENTRY NEWPORT PLYMOUTH ANDOVER
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DISPOSALS – PROVING VALUES
NUNEATON POSTLEY ROAD CEMETERY ROAD
Purchase price ¹ £6.9m £5.7m £0.6m Sales price £8.1m £9.1m £1.2m Total property return ² 23.3% 73.1% 126.3% Sales price v NBV +1.3% +8.2% +14.3% Disposal NIY 4.7% 4.7% 5.3%
H1 2020 DISPOSALS: £18.4M
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FORWARD FUNDING OF NEW WAREHOUSING
STONE (M6) HINCKLEY (M1/A5) SOUTHWATER (Horsham)
Yield on cost ¹ 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Total cost ² £8.5m £6.9m £4.6m Unit size 86,000 63,500 24,000 The Group will benefit from a 6% interest rate coupon on forward funding provided. Practical completion for all sites is expected in FY 2021 A two-year rent guarantee will be in place from practical completion for all sites
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ACTIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT1
Rental Uplift LFL Rental Uplift WAULT (years)
New lettings 3 £0.2m n/a 7.3 Fixed rent reviews 1 £0.1m 20% n/a OMV rent reviews 3 £0.3m 44% n/a Total 7 £0.6m 38% 17% of rent roll subject to a rent review in the next 12 months providing opportunities for further income growth and valuation upside £2m increase in valuation attributed to settled rent reviews and new lettings Rent reviews completed in the year were settled, on average, 9% ahead of ERV
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WELL POSITIONED
Capital growth attributed to asset management since IPO
Average TAR per annum since IPO
Average rent per sq.ft1
Market fundamentals remain resilient, with strong
The management team has specific logistics experience in the industrial property market. High quality assets in key geographic locations £98m of investments made post year-end and significant future pipeline will grow income and provide further asset management opportunities Low rent per sq.ft of £5.09 across our industrial and logistics portfolio with significant upside potential
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COVID-19
The onset of Covid-19 has contributed to focus tenants minds on the importance of the space they occupy Holding active discussions with over 70% of our tenants by rental income to extend and/or increase rents We have seen a significant rise in the settlement of rent reviews, lease renewals and removal of breaks 100% of rents demanded for the quarter to June 2020 collected The lockdown has further improved the adoption of e-commerce which is central tenant to our business
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DIRECTOR APPOINTMENT
Heather is Currently Chairman of the Food Standards Agency and in October will step down from this role to become Master of St. John’s College, Cambridge. After receiving a first-class degree in Land Economy at the University of Cambridge, she joined the Government Economic Service and held a series of senior national, regional and local government positions. Whilst Executive Director of Yorkshire Forward between 2000-2003, she led the disposal of the English Partnerships regional portfolio; the joint-venture site acquisition for the development of Sheffield’s Advanced Manufacturing Park; and oversaw an urban acquisition strategy, building a £350m property portfolio. HEATHER HANCOCK Independent Non-Executive Director On 29 May 2020, the Company announced the appointment of Heather Hancock as an Independent Non-Executive Director, effective from 15 June 2020. In 2003, Heather became a Partner in Deloitte’s Strategy Consulting business and was appointed a Managing Partner from 2008, until her retirement in 2014. She led the firm’s extensive global services to the Olympic movement and was part of its global leadership team between 2011-2013. Heather’s executive responsibilities in the firm included innovation, brand, communications, client service and talent. Heather is a Director of a family-owned property investment and development business, Amerdale Limited, and a non-executive Director
services for land-based business. She is also a Trustee of the Chatsworth Settlement Trust, responsible for an extensive commercial, residential and agricultural property portfolio and she provide consultancy advice on business strategy to private landowners across the UK. Heather served as a trustee for the Prince’s Trust for more than a decade, for which se was awarded the LVO in 2013. She is also a Deputy Lieutenant of North Yorkshire.
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POST YEAR-END ACQUISITIONS1
Tenant Lease End Break Date Rent p.a. (£000’s) Area (sq.ft) EPC Rating
Unipart Group 30/09/2036
153,473 C G-Plan Upholstery 28/09/2023
93,928 D Meritor Aftermarket UK 01/08/2026 01/08/2021 112 26,179 D Wrekin Sheet Metal 19/03/2030
38,339 D Less Common Metals 14/11/2026 14/11/2021 278 66,144 C AMI Metals 01/03/2022
51,155 C Agility Logistics 21/12/2020
132,487 E Equinox Maintenance 06/03/2031
43,467 B Walk Investments 24/03/2025 24/03/2023 174 30,314 C Rollstud 19/11/2024
32,103 C Seatronics 11/09/2020
15,133 C Carpetright 06/06/2026
5,374 G Sparrows Offshore Services 21/06/2022
40,423 C Vacant (12-month guarantee) 28/04/2021
31,004 E Giant Booker 27/02/2030 27/02/2025 383 105,195 C Anglian Water 24/03/2022
48,609 D Giant Booker 27/02/2030 27/02/2025 304 69,977 C Hermes Parcelnet 18/10/2022
44,031 C Giant Booker 27/02/2030 27/02/2025 266 73,503 C Pegler Yorkshire Group 22/11/2029
122,061 B
Contracted Rent
WAULT (lease end)
Area
Average NIY
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CASE STUDY – BUY WELL, IMPROVE RENT, RECYCLE
Purchase NIY
Sales price v NBV
Disposal NIY
TPR
development land
up from £4.00psf
in May 2019. The land element was retained and the purchaser has an option to acquire for £0.5m if planning redevelopment is granted
£5.7m £9.1m £0.5m £1.5m £0.7m £0.7m
Purchase price ¹ Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Disposal premium Sales price
Units A-D, Postley Road, Bedford
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INCOME STATEMENT
Income leakage
Contracted rent 1
(2019: 6.4%) (2019: £11.3m) Total cost ratio
(2019: 23.5%) £m 31 Mar 20 31 Mar 19 Variance
Net rental income 12.2 10.1 +21% Administrative expenses (2.3) (2.0) EBIT 9.9 8.1 +22% Net finance costs (2.7) (2.2) ADJUSTED EARNINGS 7.2 5.9 +21% LTIP crystallisation (3.5)
5.0 12.6 Profit on disposal 0.6 0.2 IFRS PROFIT 9.4 12.8
Adjusted earnings per share 7.66p 7.01p +9% DIVIDEND PER SHARE 7.60p 7.00p +9%
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BALANCE SHEET
£m 31 Mar 20 31 Mar 19 Movement
Investment property 1 207.0 186.4 +11% Cash 132.3 9.8 Debt (75.7) (72.6) Interest rate derivatives (1.3) (0.7) Other net liabilities (3.4) (2.4) NET ASSETS 258.8 120.5 +115% EPRA adjustments 1.3 0.7 EPRA NET ASSETS 260.1 121.2 EPRA NAV PER SHARE 137.90p 137.96p 0%
Total accounting return
Loan to value
(2019: 17.7%) (2019: 33.7%)
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EPRA NAV BRIDGE
137.96p 137.90p 7.77p 2.41p 4.19p 7.66p 0.61p 6.05p
EPRA NAV Mar 19 Adjusted EPRA earnings Profit on disposal
Dividends paid Property revaluation Equity issue costs LTIP crystalisation EPRA NAV Mar 20
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FINANCING OVERVIEW
Gross debt
Debt maturity
Hedging
Loan to value 1
3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2%
Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar-20
3.3x 4.4x 4.4x 4.1x
Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar-20
Interest cover ratio 2 Weighted average cost of debt
(secured)
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FINANCIAL TRACK RECORD
FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020
Net rental income £2.3m £5.0m £10.1m £12.2m Adjusted earnings 1 £1.1m £3.1m £5.9m £7.2m Adjusted earnings per share 1 7.82p 6.12p 7.01p 7.66p DIVIDEND PER SHARE 6.23p 6.32p 7.00p 7.60p Total cost ratio 22.3% 20.1% 23.5% 18.9% Number of assets 2 13 29 33 42 Portfolio valuation 3 £43.4m £131.8m £186.4m £207.0m EPRA net assets £25.5m £84.2m £121.2m £260.1m EPRA NAV PER SHARE 116.11p 122.49p 137.96p 137.90p EPRA NAV per share growth 16.1% 5.5% 12.6% 0.0% Loan to value 38.5% 34.4% 33.7% n/a TOTAL ACCOUNTING RETURN 19.1% 10.9% 17.7% 5.6%
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MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS
Investment management agreement runs to April 2024 SHARE PRICE ELEMENT:
The share price element would be 5 per cent of the amount by which the market capitalisation of the Company at the Second Calculation Date exceeds the market capitalisation of the Company as at the Revised First Calculation Date and an annualised 10 per cent. hurdle thereon (adjusted for any new issue of shares, all distribution including inter alia dividends and any returns of capital).
LONG TERM INCENTIVE PLAN (“LTIP”):
The LTIP has a NAV Element and a Share Price Element. It is assessed for the period from 7 February 2020 (the “Revised First Calculation Date”) to 30 September 2023 (the “Second Calculation Date”).
EPRA NAV ELEMENT:
The EPRA NAV element will be 5 per cent. of the amount by which the Company’s EPRA NAV at the Second Calculation Date exceeds the Company’s EPRA NAV as at the Revised First Calculation Date and an annualised 10 per cent. hurdle thereon (adjusted for any new issue of shares; all distributions including inter alia dividends and any return
ANNUAL MANAGEMENT FEE:
0.95% p.a. of the Group’s EPRA NAV up to, and including, £250m; 0.90% p.a. of the Group’s EPRA NAV in excess
including £500m; and 0.85% p.a. of the Group’s EPRA NAV in excess
The LTIP payment shall be capped at three times the average annual management fees paid from 7 February 2020 to the Second Calculation Date. If there is a change of control, the LTIP will continue to be assessed by applying the relevant offer price of the EPRA NAV element and the share price element calculations at the date of the change of control. The LTIP will be paid in shares of Urban Logistics REIT plc, or, at the Board’s discretion, in cash.