Drivers of Climate Change C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . Drivers of Climate Change C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C & What We Must Do 1 World On Your Plate Daemen College Charley Bowman Renewable Energy Task Force WNY Peace Center Inc. RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org October 11, 2014

Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean Temperature anomaly (°C) relative to 1961–1990 E N E R G E Y L B surface temperature anomaly 1850–2012 A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K 0.6 N E % R O 0 F Annual average 0 W O F 1 R ! U 0.4 C B E W . C 0.2 N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C 0.0 −0.2 −0.4 1 −0.6 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Observed change in surface temperature 1901–2012 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.5 (°C)

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C Atmospheric CO 2 N E E C 400 1 380 CO 2 (ppm) 360 340 320 300 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C CO 2 ) 1 ( CH 4 ) ( ) ( N 2 O

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S 400 N K N E % R O 0 F 380 0 W O F 1 R CO 2 ! U C B 360 E CO 2 ppm W . 340 C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E 320 E A T C N E E C 300 280 260 1800 1 1600 CH 4 1400 CH 4 ppb 1200 1000 800 600 330 320 N 2 O 310 300 N 2 O ppb 290 280 270 260 250 0 500 1000 1500 1750 1800 1900 2000 2020 Year Year

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C ) CO 2 ( 1 ) ( CH 4 ) ( N 2 O

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O Atmospheric CO 2 F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C 500 1 Atmospheric CO 2 400 (ppm) 300 200 100 3 2 1 0 Age (Ma) Millions of Years Ago d d d

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O Atmospheric CO 2 F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C 2000 1 Atmospheric CO 2 1000 (ppm) 500 200 CO 2 proxies Phytoplankton Boron Stomata Liverworts Nahcolite Paleosols 100 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Age (Ma) Millions of Years Ago d d d

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O Cumulative total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO 2 ) 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 B E 5 W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I 2100 , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C Temperature anomaly relative to 1861–1880 (°C) 4 1 2100 3 2100 2050 2 2050 2050 2050 2100 2030 2030 1 2010 RCP2.6 Historical 2000 RCP4.5 RCP range RCP6.0 1950 1% yr -1 CO 2 1980 RCP8.5 1% yr -1 CO 2 range 0 1890 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Cumulative total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)

Who Generates the CO 2 ? E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C 1 Energy Transportation Industry Ag,deForest.

Atmospheric CO 2 from Bottom Up Approach E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C Oil, coal & gas industries report numbers: 1 trillion bbl oil, 160 billion tons coal, 1037 trillion cubic feet gas 1 Chemistry: Burning 1 gram of fossil fuel (coal, gasoline, methane, oil) produces 3 grams of CO 2 Coal + Oil + Methane = 1.2 x 10 15 kg CO 2 Fossil fuel CO 2 : 1/2 into oceans + 1/2 into atmosphere Ancient CO 2 atmosphere 300 ppm + 75 ppm fossil = 375 ppm CO 2 Thanks to the fossil fuel industry for the data and Tom Murphy http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/08/recipe-for-climate-change/#

Current State of Affairs in NYS E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C Energy State of New York State N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E 10 6 C Jacobson et al. Offshore Jacobson et al. Solar PV Wind Goal, 2030 Methane + others 10 5 Goal, 2030 Electrical Energy Production (gWh) Nuclear Onshore 1 Wind Goal, 2030 Hydropower n e a t h M e 10 4 Sierra Niagara Group Coal NY SUN Goal, 2025 Wind Goal, 2018 Wind Refuse Solid Waste 10 3 s o g a B i t e a s W d o W o Fuel Oil 10 2 Sunlight 10 1 Kerosene 10 0 10 − 1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year

Clean Energy in NY State E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E ; E A T C N E E C New York State Renewable Energy 10 6 Jacobson et al. Offshore Jacobson et al. Solar PV 1 Wind Goal, 2030 10 5 Goal, 2030 Onshore Electrical Energy (gWh) Conventional Hydro Wind Goal, 2030 10 4 Sierra Niagara Group NY SUN Goal, 2025 Wind Wind Goal, 2018 Refuse Solid Waste Biogas Pumped Storage 10 3 s t e W a o d W o 10 2 t h g i l n u S 10 1 Sources: NYISO Charley Bowman, 5/4/2014 Renewable Energy Task Force Load & Capacity Data WNY Peace Center, Inc. Onshore/Offshore Wind Capacity Factors = 22/35% RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Solar Capacity Factor = 10% 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year

No Improvement in Clean Energy in 7 Years E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org NY State Relative Fuel Use (%) Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C 100 % of Total Energy Production Clean Fossil Nuclear 1 75 50 25 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W What We Must Do...in New York State . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C ◮ Vision: 100% Energy Generation from renewables by 2050 ◮ Transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy: 1 wind,solar and geothermal ◮ Public Service Commission hold hearings on Jacobson Plan for NYS ◮ Begin building renewable energy infrastructure capable of 110 GW (name plate) ◮ Stop burning coal (3% of NYS electrical power) ◮ Replace lost local/school taxes of ∼ $25 million using NYPA money ◮ Begin retraining/retirement of ∼ 400 coal plant workers using NYPA money

E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C Jacobson’s Renewable Energy Infrastructure...in NY State 1 ◮ Residential rooftop solar panels: 6.1 GW ◮ Commercial/government rooftop solar panels: 5.4 GW ◮ Utility sized solar farms: 55 GW (1100 50 MW farms) ◮ Onshore wind: 5 GW (1,068 5 MW turbines) ◮ Offshore wind: 18 GW (3,653 5 MW turbines) ◮ Geothermal: 10 GW (100 100 MW plants) ◮ Hydro: 7 GW (already built) ◮ Biogas (landfills): 2 GW ◮ Total: 108 GW

Jobs in a 100% Renewable Energy Economy E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E A T C N E E C Project years: 2016-2050 1 New permanent jobs added by 2050: 107,000 Old fossil fuels jobs lost by 2050: 50,000 Total Construction Costs: ∼ $350 billion ($3.50/watt) $ Source: NYS Stock Transfer Tax: ∼ $12 billion collected annually At 4% bond APR, stock transfer tax would almost cover annual payments