Drivers of Climate Change C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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E N E R G E Y L B A W w a b l e E T n e e E n r A e g R y S N K N E % R O 0 F 0 W O F 1 R ! U C B E W . Drivers of Climate Change C N N RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org Y I , R MMXIII P E E

SLIDE 1 R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y T A S K F O R C E W N Y P E A C E C E N T E R , I N C . B U F MMXIII 1 % R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y N O W ! RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org 1

Drivers of Climate Change & What We Must Do

World On Your Plate Daemen College

Charley Bowman Renewable Energy Task Force WNY Peace Center Inc. RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org

October 11, 2014

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Temperature anomaly (°C) relative to 1961–1990 Observed change in surface temperature 1901–2012

−0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

Annual average

1850 1900 1950 2000

(°C) Observed globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly 1850–2012

−0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.25 1.5 1.75 2.5

Year

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 300 320 340 360 380 400

Year CO2 (ppm)

Atmospheric CO2

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

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Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases

( ) ( ) ( )

CO2 CH4 N2O

SLIDE 5 R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y T A S K F O R C E W N Y P E A C E C E N T E R , I N C . B U F MMXIII 1 % R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y N O W ! RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org 1 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 CO2 ppm 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 CH4 ppb 1750 250 260 280 300 330 Year 1800 Year 500 1000 1500 270 290 310 320 N2O ppb 1900 2000 2020

CO2 CH4 N2O

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( ) ( ) ( )

CO2 CH4 N2O

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1 2 3

Age (Ma)

100 200 300 400 500

Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)

d d d

Atmospheric CO2

Millions of Years Ago

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10 20 30 40 50 60

Age (Ma)

100 200 500 1000 2000

Atmospheric CO2 (ppm)

CO2 proxies

Phytoplankton Boron Stomata Liverworts Nahcolite Paleosols

d d d

Atmospheric CO2

Millions of Years Ago

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1 2 3 4 5 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2) Temperature anomaly relative to 1861–1880 (°C) 500 1000 1500 2000 Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC) 2500

2050 2100 2100 2030 2050 2100 2100 2050 2030 2010 2000 1980 1890 1950 2050

RCP2.6 Historical RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 RCP range 1% yr -1 CO2 1% yr -1 CO2 range

SLIDE 10 R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y T A S K F O R C E W N Y P E A C E C E N T E R , I N C . B U F MMXIII 1 % R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y N O W ! RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org 1

Who Generates the CO2?

Energy Transportation Industry Ag,deForest.

SLIDE 11 R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y T A S K F O R C E W N Y P E A C E C E N T E R , I N C . B U F MMXIII 1 % R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y N O W ! RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org 1

Atmospheric CO2 from Bottom Up Approach

Oil, coal & gas industries report numbers: 1 trillion bbl oil, 160 billion tons coal, 1037 trillion cubic feet gas Chemistry: Burning 1 gram of fossil fuel (coal, gasoline, methane,

il) produces 3 grams of CO2

Coal + Oil + Methane = 1.2 x 1015kg CO2 Fossil fuel CO2: 1/2 into oceans + 1/2 into atmosphere Ancient CO2 atmosphere 300 ppm + 75 ppm fossil = 375 ppm CO2

Thanks to the fossil fuel industry for the data and Tom Murphy http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/08/recipe-for-climate-change/#

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Current State of Affairs in NYS

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 10−1 100 101 102 103 104 105 106

NY SUN Goal, 2025 Sierra Niagara Group Wind Goal, 2018 Jacobson et al. Offshore Wind Goal, 2030 Onshore Wind Goal, 2030 Jacobson et al. Solar PV Goal, 2030

Nuclear Methane + others M e t h a n e Coal Fuel Oil Kerosene Hydropower Wind Refuse Solid Waste W

W a s t e Sunlight B i

a s

Year

Electrical Energy Production (gWh)

Energy State of New York State

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Clean Energy in NY State

; 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 100 101 102 103 104 105 106

NY SUN Goal, 2025 Onshore Wind Goal, 2030 Jacobson et al. Offshore Wind Goal, 2030 Jacobson et al. Solar PV Goal, 2030 Wind Goal, 2018 Sierra Niagara Group Sources: NYISO Load & Capacity Data Onshore/Offshore Wind Capacity Factors = 22/35% Solar Capacity Factor = 10% Charley Bowman, 5/4/2014 Renewable Energy Task Force WNY Peace Center, Inc. RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org

Conventional Hydro Biogas Pumped Storage Wind W

W a s t e Refuse Solid Waste S u n l i g h t

Year Electrical Energy (gWh)

New York State Renewable Energy

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No Improvement in Clean Energy in 7 Years

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 25 50 75 100

Year % of Total Energy Production

NY State Relative Fuel Use (%)

Clean Fossil Nuclear

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What We Must Do...in New York State

◮ Vision: 100% Energy Generation from renewables by 2050 ◮ Transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy:

wind,solar and geothermal

◮ Public Service Commission hold hearings on Jacobson Plan for

NYS

◮ Begin building renewable energy infrastructure capable of 110

GW (name plate)

◮ Stop burning coal (3% of NYS electrical power) ◮ Replace lost local/school taxes of ∼$25 million using NYPA

money

◮ Begin retraining/retirement of ∼ 400 coal plant workers using

NYPA money

SLIDE 16 R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y T A S K F O R C E W N Y P E A C E C E N T E R , I N C . B U F MMXIII 1 % R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y N O W ! RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org 1

Jacobson’s Renewable Energy Infrastructure...in NY State

◮ Residential rooftop solar panels: 6.1 GW ◮ Commercial/government rooftop solar panels: 5.4 GW ◮ Utility sized solar farms: 55 GW (1100 50 MW farms) ◮ Onshore wind: 5 GW (1,068 5 MW turbines) ◮ Offshore wind: 18 GW (3,653 5 MW turbines) ◮ Geothermal: 10 GW (100 100 MW plants) ◮ Hydro: 7 GW (already built) ◮ Biogas (landfills): 2 GW ◮ Total: 108 GW

SLIDE 17 R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y T A S K F O R C E W N Y P E A C E C E N T E R , I N C . B U F MMXIII 1 % R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y N O W ! RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org 1

Jobs in a 100% Renewable Energy Economy

Project years: 2016-2050 New permanent jobs added by 2050: 107,000 Old fossil fuels jobs lost by 2050: 50,000 Total Construction Costs: ∼$350 billion ($3.50/watt) $ Source: NYS Stock Transfer Tax: ∼$12 billion collected annually At 4% bond APR, stock transfer tax would almost cover annual payments

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Military Bases & Coal Plants

into

Solar Parks

Charles Bowman Renewable Energy Task Force Western New York Peace Center, Inc. Buffalo, NY Tel: 716.332.3904 RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org http://www.WNYPeace.org

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Niagara Falls Air Reserve Station Solar Farm

513 acres: 170 MWp−dc → 193 GWhac−yr Cost: ✩434 million Income: ✩15.4 million/year @ 8➣/kWh

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Seneca Army Depot

5,515 acres: 1,838 MWp−dc → 2.30 TWhac−yr Cost: ✩3.78 billion Income: ✩183.7 million annually @ 8➣/kWh

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Dunkirk NY Solar Park

65.7 acres: 22 MWp−dc → 27.7 GWhac−yr Cost: ✩56.2 million Income: ✩2.22 million/year @ 8➣/kWh

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Lewiston Pump Storage Reservoir

1,860 acres: 620 MWp−dc → 710 GWhac−yr Cost: ✩1.52 billion Income: ✩56.8 million annually @ 8➣/kWh

+ underwater supports, or surface floats

SLIDE 23 R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y T A S K F O R C E W N Y P E A C E C E N T E R , I N C . B U F MMXIII 1 % R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y N O W ! RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org 1

716-332-3904

Niagara Falls Air Reserve Station Solar Farm - 170 MWp−dc

Project Construction Costs: ✩434 million 708,333 solar panels installed (e.g. Sun Power SPR-240E 240 watt panels) Local Spending: ✩205 million During Construction: On site Construction Jobs: 600 Related Jobs: 550 After Construction: O&M Costs: ✩2.3 million/year Permanent Jobs: 22 - 51 Income: ✩15.4 million annually (@8.0➣/kW-h; 193 GWhac) ✩ ✩ ✩ ➣

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✩ ✩ ➣

Lewiston Pump Storage Facility Solar Farm - 591 MWp−dc

Project Construction Costs: ✩1.45 billion 2.462 million solar panels installed (e.g. Sun Power SPR-240E 240 watt panels) During Construction: On site construction jobs: 2,000 Related jobs: 1800 After Construction: O&M Costs: ✩4.8 million/year Permanent jobs: 71 - 177 Income: ✩54.1 million/year (@8.0➣/kW-h; 676 GWhac)

SLIDE 25 R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y T A S K F O R C E W N Y P E A C E C E N T E R , I N C . B U F MMXIII 1 % R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y N O W ! RenewableEnergy@WNYPeace.org 1

716-332-3904

Seneca Army Depot Solar Park - 1,838 MWp−dc

Project Construction Costs: ✩3.78 billion 7.658 million solar panels installed (e.g. Sun Power SPR-240E 240 Watt) Local Spending: ✩1.77 billion During Construction: On site Construction Jobs: 5,200 Related Jobs: 4,700 After Construction: O&M Costs: ✩19.8 million/year Permanent Jobs: 184 - 551 Income: ✩183.7 million annually (@8.0➣/kW-h; 2.295 TWhac) ✩ ✩ ✩ ➣

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References

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:

http://www.climatechange2013.org/ and WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf

2. Jacobson Report for New York State: http://web.stanford.edu/

group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/NewYorkWWSEnPolicy.pdf

3. Dr. Tom Murphy, http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/

08/recipe-for-climate-change/#

4. NYISO Load & Capacity Data. Excel versions are freely available at:

http://wnypeace.org/new/RenewableEnergy.html

5. WNY Peace Center, Inc., Renewable Energy Task Force

http://wnypeace.org/new/RenewableEnergy.html