Draft Version Ph.D. Ivan Aleshkovskiy, Professor Vladimir Iontsev Department of Demography Lomonosov Moscow State University Methodological and Practical Issues of Counting Undocumented Migrants Methodological Basis for Analysis of Undocumented Migration Sufficient growth of undocumented migration is one of characteristic features of modern migratory processes. The present paper examines the methodological issues in the study of undocumented migration and counting the number of undocumented migrants. The task of systematization and standardization of terminology with respect to undocumented migration analysis seems to be especially relevant, without which it is impossible to start formalizing data on the global scale. Authors suggest the model for measuring the number of undocumented migrants. Based on available researches of undocumented migration, and also proceeding from available statistical information, we have developed an economic mathematical model for assessment of scales of undocumented immigration. In accordance with the constructed model, countries and territories of the world were arranged into six clusters, corresponding to estimates of scales of undocumented migration. The developed model allows to reveal countries that attract undocumented immigrants in the biggest degree, and also countries – transit zones for undocumented migrants. The conducted research confirmed prospects of application of the discriminant analysis methods for an assessment of scales of undocumented migration and development of recommendations for improvement of state policy in the field of regulation of migratory processes on this basis. Keywords: international migration, undocumented migration, migration policy, discriminant analysis In the second half of the 20th century the mankind witnessed of the insurmountable and irreversible power of globalization processes, which have abrupt intensification of global migration flows and have witnessed dramatic shifts in global migration trends that are resulting in formation of a new stage of migration history of the mankind. Sufficient growth and structural intricateness of undocumented migration became one of its typical features. In the second half of the 20th century the mankind witnessed of the insurmountable and irreversible power of globalization processes, which have abrupt intensification of global migration flows and have witnessed dramatic shifts in global migration trends that are resulting in formation of a new stage of migration history of the mankind. One of the typical features of the contemporary international migration is sufficient growth and structural intricateness of undocumented migration.
Despite the stepped-up migration policies of many states and implementation of numerous measures to combat undocumented immigration, the scope of this phenomenon across the world has not only decreased, but rather increased. Undocumented migration has become one of the structural factors of the global economic development, constituting an integral component of competitiveness in a number of leading industries. The structural nature of undocumented migration postulates its interdependence as regards other components of the system of the global economic growth. Numerous social negative repercusions of undocumented migration force governments and international organizations to take various measures in order to regulate this process. However, with the existing system being perpetuated the undocumented immigration as a source of cheap labor force would remain practically unavoidable issue within the development of the international labor market. The issue of undocumented migration has appeared among the most widely discussion economics-related topics as early as the begining of the 1970s. In 1974, the resolution of the 59th Session of the International Labour Organization (ILO) stated: “ Despite the efforts on the part of the major countries that benefit form the foreign labor force, the number of chaotic (illegal) migrants remains considerable, and if one approaches the issue in terms of the world as a whole, this migration trend is likely to be the rule rather than an exception ” ( ILO, 1974). Within the subsequent three decades that have witnessed active combat measures against undocumented migration, the state of affairs has not only improved, but event deteriorated. In 2004, the resolution of the 92nd session of the ILO stated: “ The number of the migrants with the unregulated states has been growing, which is promoted through the increase of the informal forms of employment, the lack of employment at dirty, dangerous and low-prestige jobs and the lack of opportunities for legal migration. The lack of the legislative regulations of migration processes and national policies in this field across a number of countries contributes to the increased of the number of illegal migrants ” ( ILO, 2004). One of the objectives of international cooperation in the field of migration policies, the resolution calls the generalization of the experience (best practices) that seeks to prevent undocumented migration. In the second half of the 2000s due to the global financial and economic crisis, the state of affairs has significantly deteriorated. Across the majority of the countries receiving the migrants, the incentives for illegal entry of the workers, on the one hand, and the use of undocumented labor on the part of the employers, on the other hand, have increased. Upon the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation and an across-the-board reduction in the number of the jobs, undocumented labor force has been becoming a more attractive option to employers. In the countries with relatively liberal immigration policies that retain the legal means of immigration (including Australia, Canada, USA), the undocumented migration has become an
alternative for those workers who either fail to meet the strict criteria of selection, are not prepared for a long wait for the permission to enter the country or do not have the means for the legal entry. It should be noted that, as a rule, undocumented immigration, accounting for all the complications involved is at present less expensive than the legal migration. In the countries with restrictive immigration policie in which the possibility of legal entry or stay has been significantly limited (including the EU), the use of the undocumented migration mechanisms becomes the only migration option for the majority of potential migrants. At the end of XX – beginning of the XXI century, aggravation of social and economic problems in countries that receive migrants, complication of a geopolitical situation in the world and other factors led to that the phenomenon of undocumented migration became a subject of an increasing and expanding public discussion in many countries of the world. Inflow of undocumented migrants is associated with a deterioration of a criminogenic situation, growth of drug addiction and drug trafficking, threats of international terrorism and other negative effects. Opinion polls show that residents of most developed countries consider the undocumented immigration as one of the most acute problems. Thus, according to the survey of EU residents conducted by Eurobarometer, the immigration, including the undocumented one, was considered among the five most acute issues facing the EU at the present day. Resident of the developed countries associate the influx of migrants with the deteriorating living conditions of the indigenous populations, a rise in crime rates, threats of international terrorism, an increase of the burden on the social assistance system within the developed countries and other negative repercussions. Concerns of the public, in their turn, lead to the increasing interest in the problems of the undocumented migration on the part of public and political figures, non-governmental organizations, academics, international organizations (UN, IOM, ILO, European Union, Council of Europe, etc.). This became especially noticeable after the tragedy of September 11, 2001 in the U.S., when the main topic of the socio-political discourse has become a matter of national security and fight against international terrorism, as well as “ Arab Spring ” events of 2011 and European Migration Crisis of 2014 – 2015, that have significantly aggravated the issues related to forced and undocumented migration into Europe. For an analysis of influence of undocumented migration on different spheres of life of society, development of recommendations for improvement of state policy in the field of regulation of migratory processes, an assessment of scales and structure of undocumented migration is necessary. At the same time, backwardness of a conceptual apparatus, an insufficient readiness of methods of assessment of the number of undocumented migrants do not allow to evaluate, even remotely accurately, the real scales of this social phenomenon in the majority of countries of the modern world. Thus, systematization and unification of terminology in the field of undocumented migration is necessary for conducting an assessment of scales of undocumented migration in the world.
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