Draft Version Ph.D. Ivan Aleshkovskiy, Professor Vladimir Iontsev - - PDF document

Draft Version Ph.D. Ivan Aleshkovskiy, Professor Vladimir Iontsev Department of Demography Lomonosov Moscow State University Methodological and Practical Issues of Counting Undocumented Migrants Methodological Basis for Analysis of Undocumented Migration Sufficient growth of undocumented migration is one of characteristic features of modern migratory

• processes. The present paper examines the methodological issues in the study of undocumented

migration and counting the number of undocumented migrants. The task of systematization and standardization of terminology with respect to undocumented migration analysis seems to be especially relevant, without which it is impossible to start formalizing data on the global scale. Authors suggest the model for measuring the number of undocumented migrants. Based on available researches of undocumented migration, and also proceeding from available statistical information, we have developed an economic mathematical model for assessment of scales of undocumented

• immigration. In accordance with the constructed model, countries and territories of the world were

arranged into six clusters, corresponding to estimates of scales of undocumented migration. The developed model allows to reveal countries that attract undocumented immigrants in the biggest degree, and also countries – transit zones for undocumented migrants. The conducted research confirmed prospects of application of the discriminant analysis methods for an assessment of scales of undocumented migration and development of recommendations for improvement of state policy in the field of regulation of migratory processes on this basis. Keywords: international migration, undocumented migration, migration policy, discriminant analysis In the second half of the 20th century the mankind witnessed of the insurmountable and irreversible power of globalization processes, which have abrupt intensification of global migration flows and have witnessed dramatic shifts in global migration trends that are resulting in formation of a new stage of migration history of the mankind. Sufficient growth and structural intricateness

• f undocumented migration became one of its typical features.

In the second half of the 20th century the mankind witnessed of the insurmountable and irreversible power of globalization processes, which have abrupt intensification of global migration flows and have witnessed dramatic shifts in global migration trends that are resulting in formation of a new stage of migration history of the mankind. One of the typical features of the contemporary international migration is sufficient growth and structural intricateness of undocumented migration.

Despite the stepped-up migration policies of many states and implementation of numerous measures to combat undocumented immigration, the scope of this phenomenon across the world has not only decreased, but rather increased. Undocumented migration has become one of the structural factors of the global economic development, constituting an integral component of competitiveness in a number of leading industries. The structural nature of undocumented migration postulates its interdependence as regards

• ther components of the system of the global economic growth. Numerous social negative

repercusions of undocumented migration force governments and international organizations to take various measures in order to regulate this process. However, with the existing system being perpetuated the undocumented immigration as a source of cheap labor force would remain practically unavoidable issue within the development of the international labor market. The issue of undocumented migration has appeared among the most widely discussion economics-related topics as early as the begining of the 1970s. In 1974, the resolution of the 59th Session of the International Labour Organization (ILO) stated: “Despite the efforts on the part of the major countries that benefit form the foreign labor force, the number of chaotic (illegal) migrants remains considerable, and if one approaches the issue in terms of the world as a whole, this migration trend is likely to be the rule rather than an exception” (ILO, 1974). Within the subsequent three decades that have witnessed active combat measures against undocumented migration, the state of affairs has not only improved, but event deteriorated. In 2004, the resolution of the 92nd session of the ILO stated: “The number of the migrants with the unregulated states has been growing, which is promoted through the increase of the informal forms

• f employment, the lack of employment at dirty, dangerous and low-prestige jobs and the lack of
• pportunities for legal migration. The lack of the legislative regulations of migration processes and

national policies in this field across a number of countries contributes to the increased of the number of illegal migrants” (ILO, 2004). One of the objectives of international cooperation in the field of migration policies, the resolution calls the generalization of the experience (best practices) that seeks to prevent undocumented migration. In the second half of the 2000s due to the global financial and economic crisis, the state of affairs has significantly deteriorated. Across the majority of the countries receiving the migrants, the incentives for illegal entry of the workers, on the one hand, and the use of undocumented labor on the part of the employers, on the other hand, have increased. Upon the deterioration of the macroeconomic situation and an across-the-board reduction in the number of the jobs, undocumented labor force has been becoming a more attractive option to employers. In the countries with relatively liberal immigration policies that retain the legal means

• f immigration (including Australia, Canada, USA), the undocumented migration has become an

alternative for those workers who either fail to meet the strict criteria of selection, are not prepared for a long wait for the permission to enter the country or do not have the means for the legal entry. It should be noted that, as a rule, undocumented immigration, accounting for all the complications involved is at present less expensive than the legal migration. In the countries with restrictive immigration policie in which the possibility of legal entry or stay has been significantly limited (including the EU), the use of the undocumented migration mechanisms becomes the only migration option for the majority of potential migrants. At the end of XX – beginning of the XXI century, aggravation of social and economic problems in countries that receive migrants, complication of a geopolitical situation in the world and

• ther factors led to that the phenomenon of undocumented migration became a subject of an

increasing and expanding public discussion in many countries of the world. Inflow of undocumented migrants is associated with a deterioration of a criminogenic situation, growth of drug addiction and drug trafficking, threats of international terrorism and other negative effects. Opinion polls show that residents of most developed countries consider the undocumented immigration as one of the most acute problems. Thus, according to the survey of EU residents conducted by Eurobarometer, the immigration, including the undocumented one, was considered among the five most acute issues facing the EU at the present day. Resident of the developed countries associate the influx of migrants with the deteriorating living conditions of the indigenous populations, a rise in crime rates, threats of international terrorism, an increase of the burden on the social assistance system within the developed countries and other negative repercussions. Concerns of the public, in their turn, lead to the increasing interest in the problems of the undocumented migration on the part of public and political figures, non-governmental organizations, academics, international organizations (UN, IOM, ILO, European Union, Council of Europe, etc.). This became especially noticeable after the tragedy of September 11, 2001 in the U.S., when the main topic of the socio-political discourse has become a matter of national security and fight against international terrorism, as well as “Arab Spring” events of 2011 and European Migration Crisis of 2014–2015, that have significantly aggravated the issues related to forced and undocumented migration into Europe. For an analysis of influence of undocumented migration on different spheres of life of society, development of recommendations for improvement of state policy in the field of regulation of migratory processes, an assessment of scales and structure of undocumented migration is necessary. At the same time, backwardness of a conceptual apparatus, an insufficient readiness of methods of assessment of the number of undocumented migrants do not allow to evaluate, even remotely accurately, the real scales of this social phenomenon in the majority of countries of the modern

• world. Thus, systematization and unification of terminology in the field of undocumented migration

is necessary for conducting an assessment of scales of undocumented migration in the world.

In order to indicate the migrants that enter the country irregularly or undocumented, violated the established term of residence or reside in a country without a residence permit, violate other relevant immigration rules, and the appropriate type of migration in the modern scientific literature there has been used a number of terms and expressions: “undocumented”, “paperless”, “illegal”, “unauthorized”, “with an irregular status”, “irregular”, “clandestine”, “quasi-legal” migration etc. At the same time, while some scholars consider these terms as interchangeable, others believe these concepts to be fundamentally different. There are nuances in perception of the terms “illegal migration”, “clandestine migration”, “undocumented migration”, “irregular migration”. Within the present time, the scientific literature and international organizations has used less and less the term “illegal migration| that is increasingly being replaced with the terms “undocumented migration” or “irregular migration”. The term “illegal immigration” is mainly used when referring to the smuggling of migrants and people trafficking. One of the first international documents, in which the term “illegal immigration” has been used, was the Convention No.143 of the ILO “On Abuses in the field of Migration and Promotion of Equality, Opportunity and Treatment for Migrant Workers” published in 1975. Convention No.143 stresses that “each Member of the Organization shall take all necessary and appropriate measures ... against the organizers of illicit or clandestine movements of migrants, seeking employment, whether such a move starts from the territory of such a Member or transits across its territory or ends within it, as well as against those who employ workers having immigrated illegally”. Thus, as early as this document streeses the fact that the status of illegality can be acquired in connection with a variety of circumstances: entry, transit, residence within a country, form of employment. Convention No.143 separately indicates that in the situation when “a migrant worker living legally in the country for the purpose of employment, he is not to be considered as a person, residing with the illegal or irregular status through the mere fact of the loss of their employment, which in itself does not imply the withdrawal of the residence permit or, if necessary, their permit for employment”. In addition, the Convention raises the issue related to the necessity to improve the immigration laws in connection with the increase of undocumented migration: “In view of the existence of illegal or clandestine labor migration it would be desirable to adopt new standards specifically aimed at combating such abuses” (ILO, 1973). In the mid-1990s there were developed the new approaches as to the treatment of the undocumented migration migrants’ status. The Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development of 1994 states that “undocumented or irregular migrants are those who do not comply with the requirements of the host country in respect of the entry, stay or economic activity”. In addition, this document draws attention to the fact that the trend

• f the increase in the undocumented migration in the near future is to grow: “In view of the observed

in a number of developing countries, trends for the migration of the population, especially in

connection with the continuing increase in the active population rates in such countries, it is expected that the scope of the undocumented or illegal migration will be increase” (UN, 1994). The conference participants also proposed using a more differentiated approach to undocumented migrant workers, applying a broader set of terms in order to determine the status of those who immigrated seeking employment. The report of the International Labour Organization of 2004 “Seeking Fair Treatment of Migrant Workers in Global Economy”, states: “The people that enter the country or work in the country without the proper permission from the authorities are designated in different ways: illegal, clandestine, illegal immigrants or persons with irregular status. At one time, “illegal immigrants” constituted a separate residual category, however, the word “illegal” has a normative connotation and implies their criminal nature. Therefore, during the International Conference on Population and Development of 1994, the participants proposed to use the term “undocumented persons”. It, however, is incomplete because it does not include the migrants who enter the host country legally with the travel documents who then violate the conditions of entry and seek emplooyment. The migrants that cross the border with the help of particular assistants may have obtained the forged documents in connection with which fact during the International Symposium on Migration in Bangkok, which was held in April 1999, it was recommended to use the term (“irregular migrants”). The unregulated state in the field of the migration may be associated with various circumstances, including the departure, transit, entry and return, while violations of the laws may be committed both against migrants and by migrants themselves” (ILO, 2004). Glossary on Migration 2004, prepared by the International Organization for Migration, uses the following definition: “illegal migration is the movements that take place outside the framework

• f the laws of the countries of origin, transit and destination of migrants. The clear and universal

definition of the illegal migration is absent. From the point of view of the host country, it refers to the movements associated with the illegal entry, residence or employment in the country, meaning that the worker does not have the necessary in accordance with the migration legislation documents for the legal entry, residence or employment in the country in question”. From the point of view of the country of emigration, the illegality occurs, when, for instance, an individual crosses the international border without a valid passport or travel documents or does not comply with the administrative requirements, required to leave the country. At the same time, there is a trend to restrict the use of the term “illegal migration” to the cases of smuggling of migrants and trafficking in migrants” (IOM, 2004). The Report of the Global Commission on International Migration published in 2005 states that “the term illegal migration is commonly used to describe the various forms of movements of individuals associated with violations of the rules of the entry or residence within the country of which they are not citizens. This notion includes the individuals who enter or reside in the country

without a permit, who have been transported across state borders as smuggled or illegally; asylum seekers who have been refused asylum and escaped deportation; individuals who have entered the country with the false documents or received the residence permit through a falsified marriage. All these various forms of the illegal migration are often covered by the alternative names – "unauthorized", "undocumented", "illegal", etc. The Commission is aware of the controversies surrounding the comparability of these terms and agreeы with the statement that the definition of "irregular" or "illegal" is not applicable when referring to an individual. In the connnection, the present report uses the term "irregular migrants” (Migration…, 2005). The Migration Terminology Guide prepared in 2011 by the European Union and the International Organization for Migration (IOM, 2011) uses the following definitions of the key terms: Undocumented migrant workers (migrant workers residing in violation of the legilsation, migrant workers without the documents) – migrant workers and members of their families who are not allowed to enter, reside or be employed in the country. Undocumented foreign citizen — foreigner entering or residing in the country without the proper documents, as well as: a) those who do not have the legal documents required to enter the country, but who are able to secretly enter the country; b) those who enter the country using forged documents; c) those who, upon entering the country with the use of the legal documents, have stayed in the country in excess of the permitted period or otherwise violated the conditions of the entry and residence in the country without the permission. Irregular migration (irregular migration, illegal migration) means movements that take place

• utside the regulatory norms of the country of origin, transit and receiving countries. There is no

clear or universally accepted definition of the irregular migration. From the point of view of the destination country, it is undestood as illegal entry, residence and employment in such a country. This means that the worker does not have the permission or documents required, in accordance with the immigration laws, to enter, reside or be employment in such a country. From the point of view of the country of origin, as illegal are treated the cases when, for instance, an individual crosses the international border without the valid passport or travel documents or does not comply with the administrative requirements as regards departure from the country. There is a trend to restrict the use

• f the term “illegal immigration” with only referring to smuggling of migrants and people

trafficking. Illegal entry into the country – crossing the borders without complying with the necessary requirements for the legal entry into the receiving country. Irregular migrants – a person who owing to the illegal entry or the expiry of his/her visa has no legal status in a transit or host country. The term applies to the migrants who violate the rules of entry into the country, as well as to any other individual without the right to further remain in the

host country (secret/illegal/undocumented migrant, or migrant worker who resides in violation of the law). Clandestine migration – concealed, occurring in violation of the immigration requirements,

• migration. This may occur when an individual who is not a citizen of the country, violates the rules
• f the entry, or who having entered the country legally, stays longer that the due period of time, thus

violating the immigration rules. According to the Russian Federation legislation, undocumented migration – “movements into the Russian Federation in violation of the laws of the Russian Federation as regards the entry, stay (residence) of foreign citizens in the Russian Federation and (or) of their employment activities”. Summarizing recommendations containing in international normative documents and reference publications, we will point out that, in our opinion, the following are the most complete and exact definitions: Undocumented (irregular) migration are territorial movements of people through administrative borders that takes place outside the regulatory norms of the sending, transit and receiving countries. Undocumented (irregular) migrant workers (migrant workers staying in violation of the law; migrant workers without documents) are migrant workers or members of their families who are not permitted to enter, stay or work in a given country. Irregular situation can be connected with different aspects of migratory processes: departure, transit, entrance or stay in a country, form of employment, return, and violations of law can be committed both in relation to migrants and by migrants themselves. Entry Form Thus, there is no doubt about the relevance of the need for investigation into the issues associated with the illegal labor migration. The increasing scope of the phenomenon in question requires referring to numerous international practices in the field of regulating the migration flows.

Legal Entry Undocumented Entry Illegal

Entry

Stay Rules Violation Undocumented (Informal) Employment Stay Period Violation

Within the analysis of the issues associated with the illegal migration the theoretical and methodological justification of the researches plays a particularly important role. At present, the task

• f the systematization and standardization of terminology in the field of migration policy seems

particularly relevevant, without which it is impossible to start the formalization of the data on a global scale. The study conducted opens up the possibilities of the invegstiation into the issues of the illegal migration, applying the capabilities of the mathematical apparatus. Counting Undocumented Migrants There are no reliable data on undocumented migrants in the world. According to the different estimations, 10 to 15 % of all international migrants stay in the countries of destination in violation

• f the law. In other words, undocumented migrants are about half of legal migrant-workers, and

their number is not reducing despite restricting immigration rules and special laws directed against undocumented immigration. For an assessment of scales of undocumented immigration in different countries of the modern world, it is advisable to use the theory of factors of migration (the Pull-Push theory) and methods of discriminant analysis. Based on available researches of undocumented migration, and also proceeding from available statistical information (data of the International Clandestino Project, the United Nations Population Division, Bureaus of Population Research and the World Bank), we have developed an economic mathematical model for assessment of scales of undocumented immigration. The number of undocumented immigrants in a given country acts as a dependent variable in the model. A set of fifteen indicators that hypothetically influence the level of undocumented immigration was formed as independent variables: (1) crude birth rate, ‰; (2) crude death rate, ‰; (3) coefficient of a migratory gain, ‰; (4) coefficient of infantile mortality, ‰; (5) total coefficient

• f birth rate, infants per one woman; (6) share of population aged up to 15 years, %; (7) share of

population aged 65 years and above, %; (8) life expectancy at birth, men, years; (9) life expectancy at birth, women, years; (10) share of urban population, %; (11) GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity, US dollars; (12) density of population, persons per 1 sq.km; (13) level of unemployment under the ILO methodology, %; (14) annual average population size, thousands of persons; (15) level of literacy of population, %. In order to conduct the discriminant analysis, a “training sample” from the majority of European countries and the USA, a number of African and South American countries and Australia was formed. An assessment of the number of undocumented migrants in European countries was taken from the Clandestino research project, estimates for other countries were taken from official sources released by governments of given countries. In the training sample, the following estimates

• f an interval of scales of undocumented immigration were set: (1) 0–10 thousand persons; (2) 11–

50 thousand persons; (3) 51–200 thousand persons; (4) 201–500 thousand persons; (5) 501–1000 thousand persons; (6) over 1000 thousand persons. For each interval, regression models

• f

the following type were examined:





  

n i i i

c IM

1

X αi

, where IMi — is an assessment of scales of undocumented migration in i country, Xi — is a vector of economic and demographic indicators of i country, С — is a constant,

 

n

a a , ,

1 

 α

— are regression parameters. Using methods of discriminant analysis of the formed set of initial indicators, existing ties between an outcome variable and expected explanatory variables were revealed for the training sample, and also an importance of explanatory variables was estimated.

Table 1. Distribution of countries and territories of the world according to assessment of scales of undocumented migration, 2013 # Scales of undocumented migration Composition of clusters I 0–10 thousands of persons Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahrain, Belarus, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Vanuatu, Georgia, Iceland, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Mauritius, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Palau, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Singapore, Thailand, Ukraine, Finland, Croatia, Sweden II 11–50 thousands of persons Azerbaijan, Angola, Armenia, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Belize, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Butane, Hungary, East Timor, Vietnam, Gabon, Haiti, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Honduras, Denmark, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Yemen, Iraq, Cambodia, Cameroon, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Kiribati, Comoro Islands, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Cuba, Laos, Lesotho, Liberia, Mauritania, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Republic of Maldives, Micronesia, Mozambique, Mongolia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Netherlands, Pakistan, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Portugal, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Swaziland, Seychelles, Senegal, Saint Vincent and Grenadines, Saint Christopher and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Syria, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Tajikistan, Tanzania, the Republic of Togo, the Kingdom of Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tuvalu, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Uganda, Philippines, Central African Republic, Chad, Chile, Sri Lanka, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Southern Sudan, Jamaica III 51–200 thousands of persons Albania, Dominica, Zambia, India, Ireland, Cyprus, China, Costa Rica, Kuwait, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Taiwan, Estonia, Montenegro, Czech Republic IV 201–500 thousands of persons Austria, Botswana, Guatemala, Germany, Canada, Qatar, Libya, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland V 501–1000 thousands of persons Australia, Argentina, Belgium, Venezuela, Greece, Indonesia, Spain, Italy, Lebanon, Colombia, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, Tunisia, South Korea, Uruguay, Ecuador, Japan VI above 1000 thousand persons Algeria, Brazil, Great Britain, Dominican Republic, Jordan, Israel, Iran, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Mexico, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, USA, France, Republic of South Africa

Calculated using Statistica 10 software package.

The conducted analysis showed that simultaneous inclusion of all the 15 chosen indicators would lead to an emergence of a multicollinearity in the model. Therefore, we tested different regression models including different explanatory variables not correlated among themselves. As a result, the best model was chosen in which all explanatory variables were significant at the 1-%

• level. The model takes into account six of the previously selected indicators (3, 5, 9, 10, 11, 12) as

determinants of undocumented immigration. Using methods of the discriminant analysis in accordance with the above constructed model, countries and territories of the world were arranged into six clusters, corresponding to estimates of scales of undocumented migration (see Table 1). In this paper, we do not provide parameters of regressions because they serve only as an auxiliary tool to refer countries to this or that interval. At the same time, an addition of new data to the “training sample” will allow to increase an accuracy of the offered model, to improve the algorithm from the point of view of increasing accuracy of a forecast. As it can be seen from Table 1, the developed model allows to reveal countries that attract undocumented immigrants in the biggest degree, and also countries – transit zones for undocumented migrants. The conducted research confirmed prospects of application of the discriminant analysis methods for an assessment of scales of undocumented migration and development of recommendations for improvement of state policy in the field of regulation of migratory processes

• n this basis. At the same time, there is a possibility for improvement of the model.

Conclusion Undocumented immigration is one of characteristic features of modern migratory processes. Whatever routes and methods migrants use to enter a destination country and whatever methods are practiced to stop them, we think that it is barely impossible to effectively counteract this form of migration under the existing governance of capitalistic norms. In combination with demographic pressure and economic push factors in sending countries, these circumstances make undocumented migration in the contemporary world structurally insurmountable. At the same time scales of undocumented immigration can be considerably reduced if legal labor migration is encouraged. Questions of undocumented migration management assume formation of an entire complex of legal institutions and have to be considered in a wider context of common immigration

• legislation. First of all, it has to include a clear legal regulation of criteria and procedures for legal

entrance into a country taking into account all the variety of modern migratory flows.

References Aleshkovskiy I.A. Undocumented Migration as the phenomenon of the Globalized World // Age of Globalization. 2014. №2. pp. 129–136 [in Russian]. Clandestino. Database

• n

Irregular Migration. Available at: http://irregular- migration.net/index.php?id=161. Accessed 01.12.2016. Handbook on Migration Terminology (Russian-English). Geneva: IOM, 2011. 166 p. International Migration Law. Glossary on Migration. Geneva, IOM, 2004. 81 p. Irregular Migration in Europe. Washington, Migration Policy Institute, 2011. 22 p. Migration in an interconnected world. Geneva, Global Commission on International Migration, 2005. 98 p. Schneider F., Buehn A., Montenegro C. New Estimates for the Shadow Economies All over the World // International Economic Journal. 2010. Vol. 24. № 4. pp. 443–461. International Migration Report 2015. Highlights. New York: United Nations, 2016.