Dr. Rachel Feeney Council Staff Council Meeting June 22, 2016 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• Dr. Rachel Feeney

Council Staff

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Council Meeting June 22, 2016

• 5. HERRING (Jun 21-23, 2016)

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• 1. A8 goals/objective
• 2. A8 timeline
• 3. MSE workshop outcomes
• 4. Herring PDT/AP/CTE input
• 5. MSE next steps

Outline Discussion goal

Approve objectives, performance metrics, and control rules to be evaluated in the current Management Strategy Evaluation.

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• 1. To account for the role of Atlantic herring within

the ecosystem, including its role as forage;

• 2. To stabilize the fishery at a level designed to

achieve optimum yield;

• 3. To address localized depletion in inshore waters.

Amendment 8 goals

• 1. Develop and implement an Acceptable Biological

Catch (ABC) control rule that manages Atlantic herring within an ecosystem context and addresses the goals of Amendment 8.

A8 objective

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Amendment 8 timeline

ABC control rule Localized depletion 2016 Jan. Council approved developing measures via MSE Cte tasked PDT with background analyses Apr - May MSE workshop #1 Cte/Council approved problem statement June AP/Cte/Council review and approve outcomes PDT tasking cont. July - Aug MSE technical work, updates at Cte/Council mtgs AP/Cte review PDT work, develop measures Sep-Oct Develop measures Nov Dec MSE workshop #2 2017 Jan Council approve range of alternatives TBD MSE peer review; impacts analysis; public hearings; final action 2018 TBD Implementation

Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE)

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• Council is developing alternatives via

management strategy evaluation, involving:

• Discussion about the objectives/desired
• utcomes of the control rule.
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echnical analysis to test how the control rules may/may not achieve objectives. prior to approving the Range of Alternatives.

MSE workshop goals

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• 1. Improve understanding of MSE.
• 2. Develop Council recommendations:
• a. ABC control rule objectives.
• b. How control rule performance relative to objectives could

be measured.

• c. Control rules/characteristics to test.
• d. Improve understanding of the potentials and limitations of

models that may affect simulation testing. Identify which uncertainties are most important to resolve.

• e. Provide an opportunity for stakeholders to provide

greater input than typically possible at Council meetings.

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Beyond the steering committee, facilitators, and staff, 69 people attended.

MSE workshop participants

14% Herring Committee members 7% Herring Advisory Panel members 7% Herring Plan Development Team members 9% Herring fishery 12% Lobster fishery 4% Environmental non-governmental organizations 25% Other fishery (tuna, groundfish) 22% Federal/state agencies, scientists, other

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• Workshop developed objectives, performance metrics,

and ABC control rules that can be evaluated this summer with the current modeling capabilities.

• Some interest in considering spatial scales smaller than

the A. herring stock area (ME to NC).

• Models are not yet advanced enough to consider spatial

scales smaller than the stock area.

• Council currently addressing localized depletion

concerns through other aspects of Amendment 8.

• For Amendment 8, the Council is focused on

considering control rules for the Atlantic herring ABC, which applies stock-wide. A sub-ACL control rule could be developed through a future action.

MSE workshop outcomes

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MSE workshop outcomes

Fundamental Objectives Means Objectives  Maintain sufficient herring population for forage needs  Prevent overfishing of herring  Maximize yield for herring fleet  Maximize profit for herring fleet  Ensure herring catch temporal stability  Maintain a herring population with normal size/age structure  Maintain predator abundance/ condition  Ensure catch limits allow sufficient herring for predators  Achieve MSY or OY  Limit annual variation in quota  Ensure appropriate fishing selectivity/ intensity  Establish a forage set- aside

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MSE workshop outcomes

Performance metrics (examples)

• Herring SSB, Btarget, M relative to BMSY, B0
• Herring ABC relative to catch when FMSY
• Herring surplus production
• Herring ABC inter-annual fluctuation
• Predator abundance/condition
• Revenue/profit

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MSE workshop outcomes

Control rules (examples)

• Catch or F changing with biomass.
• Set-aside (as unfished) 30% of SSB
• Reduce catch (F) when SSB <75% B0
• No catch when SSB ≤40% B0
• Constant catch
• In perpetuity
• Above a high biomass threshold
• Current control rule

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• Outcomes thorough and well-developed.
• Some performance metrics may not be directly
• included. Proxies can address intent, for example:

Herring PDT input (May 23)

Recommendation Proxy Condition of specific predators (e.g., tern productivity of 0.8) Sensitivity of a generic predator’s recruitment, natural mortality, growth Maintain BMSY at 4x natural mortality The BMSY if natural mortality is actually 4x what is assumed in assessment

• A rebuilding plan is required when SSB <½BMSY, with

F that rebuilds the stock in <10 years. This projection is difficult to simulate, but lower F can be.

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AP

• No specific changes recommended.

Some AP members did not support certain concepts, but supported evaluating a full range of concepts. Committee

• No specific changes recommended.

Herring AP/Cte input (June 1-2)

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MSE next steps

June

• MSE technical work underway

Mid-Nov.

• MSE technical work complete

Early Dec.

• MSE workshop #2
• Review outcomes
• Recommend MSE iteration
• Recommend alternatives

Mid-Dec.

• Potential MSE iteration
• Herring PDT mtg
• Review outcomes
• Develop alternatives

Early Jan.

• Herring AP/Cte mtgs
• Review outcomes
• Develop alternatives

Jan 24-26

• Council mtg – approve alternatives range