Dr. Jerry Parrish Chief Economist & Director of Research, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Note: the following should not be construed as and should not be relied upon as legal or tax advice.

• Dr. Jerry Parrish

Chief Economist & Director of Research, Florida Chamber Foundation jparrish@flfoundation.org

Dean Saunders, ALC, CCIM

Managing Director, Owner, SVN dean@saundersrealestate.com

Gary Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CRRP, FRICS

Managing Director, Owner, SVN Gary.Ralston@svn.com

Todd Dantzler, CCIM

Managing Director & Senior Advisor, SVN todd.dantzler@svn.com

Tyler Davis, CPA, MTA

Asset Manager & Advisor, SVN tyler.davis@svn.com

POLLING QUESTION #1

• What is your overall sentiment about the economy for the next 12

months?

• Fear
• Concern
• Cautiously Optimistic
• We’ll Recover Fast

OVERVIEW

• Florida Economy
• Florida Commercial Real Estate
• Florida Land

THE FLORIDA 2030 BLUEPRINT

17TH 10TH

• 39 Goals/125 Strategies

COVID-19 Cases: Updated April 15, 2020, 7 p.m.

Florida

Florida Cases: 22,519 Hospitalized: 3,249 Total People Tested: 215,521 Increase in Tests: 7,679 Percent Positive: 10.5% Negative Tests: 191,377 Florida Deaths: 614

COVID-19 Case Density:

Population per Positive COVID-19 Case Updated April 15, 2020, 7 p.m.

Top Densities:

• 1. Miami-Dade

337

• 2. Suwannee

548

• 3. Broward

581

• 4. Jefferson

648

• 5. Seminole

649

• 6. Bradford

806

• 7. Palm Beach

824

• 8. Florida

955

• 9. Collier

972

• 10. Osceola

1,041

• 11. Monroe

1,125

Florida

Industry Diversification by MSA

Diversification Rankings

#1 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA #2 Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island MSA #3 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA #4 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA #5 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA #6 Cape Coral-Ft. Myers MSA #7 Jacksonville MSA #8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA #9 Ocala MSA #10 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA

Data Source: Florida Gulf Coast University, Regional Economic Research Institute. Q3 2019 data

• 10%
• 8%
• 6%
• 4%
• 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Yearly Job Growth Rates - US, Florida, and Orlando MSA

Florida US Orlamdo MSA

9,497 9,706 8,782 7,884 9,338 12,195 24,59220,08516,17713,47011,60211,901 8,832 6,866 6,802 6,478 5,801 74,313 228,484 169,885

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Florida Initial Unemployment Claims Numbers March

There have been 472,682 initial Unemployment Claims Filed in Florida – last 3 weeks

• 29.0%
• 3.3%
• 13.7%
• 1.8%
• 2.6%
• 8.0%
• 30%
• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

GDP Yearly Growth Rate

1945-47

2008-09 1982 2020 estimate 1938

1930-33

• 29.0%
• 3.3%
• 13.7%
• 1.8%
• 2.6%
• 8.0%
• 30%
• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

GDP Yearly Growth Rate

1945-47

2008-09 1982 2020 estimate 1938

1930-33

• 29.0%
• 3.3%
• 13.7%
• 1.8%
• 2.6%
• 8.0%
• 30%
• 25%
• 20%
• 15%
• 10%
• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

GDP Yearly Growth Rate

1945-47

2008-09 1982 2020 estimate 1938

1930-33

Leisure & Hospitality Jobs as a Percent of Total Private-Sector Jobs

Florida Average is 16.0% U.S. Average is 13.3% Top 10 Percentages

• 1. Monroe

41.6%

• 2. Franklin

31.3%

• 3. Walton

31.0%

• 4. Nassau

27.7%

• 5. Orange

27.5%

• 6. Osceola

24.6%

• 7. St. Johns

22.9%

• 8. Okaloosa

22.8%

• 9. Flagler

21.5% 10.Bay 21.2%

Data Source: BLS. Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW)

FLORIDA ECONOMY & COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

• 5 min COVID-19 Test
• 1 of out of every 10 jobs is in Florida
• 17th largest economy in the world
• People
• Jobs
• 65% of layoffs are leisure & hospitality
• Industry
• Tourism – people have to feel comfortable traveling
• Agriculture

FLORIDA COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

• Retail
• Office
• Industrial
• Apartment
• Other – Hospitality, self storage
• Agriculture

FLORIDA TOURISM IMPACTS

• When will people feel safe to travel?
• Will vacation rentals be allowed after a certain date?
• When will Disney, SeaWorld, etc. open?
• Importance of summer travel to economies of small beach towns
• Sporting Event cancellations
• MLB will not seek to be “essential business” in FL
• Pauses Spring Training league plan by MLB
• Impact on Super Bowl in Tampa?
• Tom Brady in Tampa….but empty stadium?
• No fan events?

FLORIDA POPULATION CHANGES

• Will more people move to Florida in the aftermath of COVID-

19?

• More people move to FL from NY, NJ, & CA than anywhere else
• Will older citizens seek less dense, more spread out states such as Florida?
• Increase in future population growth?

FLORIDA LAND

• Impact of Previous Major Events on Land:
• Freezes of the 1980’s
• Hurricanes
• 9/11 & Aftermath
• 2008-2009 Recession
• Rural Subdivisions/Event Sales

FLORIDA LAND

• Farming Implications
• More people drinking orange juice
• Fewer people eating produce
• More purchases at Grocery Stores & less from Restaurants
• Supply chain challenges?
• Ag land market does not necessarily run parallel to the
• verall economy
• How will the recovery be similar or different compared to

these major events?

• What opportunities will there be coming out of this?

POLLING QUESTION #2

• What topic do you want to see covered next?
• Federal Tax Overview
• Identifying Buying Opportunities
• Property Management Services
• Florida Road Expansion Plans
• Opportunity Zone Guide

QUESTIONS?

• Dr. Jerry Parrish

Chief Economist & Director of Research, Florida Chamber Foundation jparrish@flfoundation.org

• Dean Saunders, ALC, CCIM

Managing Director, Owner, SVN dean@saundersrealestate.com

• Gary Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE,

CRRP, FRICS

Managing Director, Owner, SVN Gary.Ralston@svn.com

• Todd Dantzler, CCIM

Managing Director & Senior Advisor, SVN todd.dantzler@svn.com

• Tyler Davis, CPA, MTA

Asset Manager & Advisor, SVN tyler.davis@svn.com

For more COVID-19 resources, including prior webcast recordings, please visit: svnsaunders.com/coronavirus