Downscaling as a way to predict hazardous conditions for aviation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SINTEF ICT SESAR Innovation Day 2013, Stockholm, Sweden

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Downscaling as a way to predict hazardous conditions for aviation activities

Adil RASHEED, Karstein Sørli, Jakob Kristoffer Süld, Knut Helge Midtbø Applied Mathematics Strindveien 4, Trondheim, NORWAY adil.rasheed@sintef.no www.adilrasheed.com

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• Context
• Background
• Flow in complex terrain
• Forecast
• Computational efficiency and robustness
• Validation strategy
• Conclusion

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OVERVIEW

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ENAC, Master AATM4 - November 16, 2011

Context: WP 12.2.2

Meteo Centre ATC & Airport Systems

Lidar Front- End Lidar Wake Processing Radar Front- End Radar Wake Processing Wake Plots Tracking Wake Vortex Sensors

Electronic-scan Radar 1.5 µm WV Lidar

Wake Vortex Decision Support System

Anemometers Data Fusion Weather LIDAR UHF Wind Profiler SODAR/RASS X Band Radar 1.5 µm LIDAR

Local Meteo Sensors MHRPS

Turbulences Calculation

Local Weather Nowcast & Forecast

External Weather Observations Aircraft Characteristics + 4D trajectory

HMI

Local Weather Data Cube

INT-ITWS-1 INT-ITWS-2 INT-LWF-1 INT-LWF-2 INT-LWFN-1 INT-ITWS-3 INT-WVDET-1 INT-WVDET-2 INT-WVDET-3 INT-WVDET-4 INT-WVAS-1 INT-WVDET-5 INT-ATCS-1 INT-WVAS-2

Supervisor Tower Approach

Wake Vortex Predictor Wake Vortex Advisory System

Input / Output

Separation Mode Planner Monitoring & Alerting

INT-ATCS-2 INT-WVAS-4 INT-EXT-MET INT-WVAS-3 INT-WVDET-6

500mX500m 50mX50m

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AMSTERDAM GENEVA PARIS FRANKFURT

NON-NORWEGIAN AIRPORTS (Terrain)

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NORWEGIAN AIRPORTS (Terrain)

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Background: Aviation

Wideroe DH8A on May 1st 2005 The Aviation Herald Hammerfest Airport Just before landing the wind speed veered and increased, creating a tail wind. The increase in the descent rate was compensated, but was insufficient, and the plane had a touch-down on the right main landing gear, with the leg failing and the aircraft sliding on its belly. The aircraft was written off and Widerøe was criticized for permitting landings under too high winds and gusts Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority imposed stricter wind regulations upon the airport.

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Wind shear in mountainous terrain

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HORIZONTAL SHEAR

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Mountain waves: Qualilative Characteristics

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Mountain waves: Characteristics

• Maximum amplitude on the leeward-side of the hill
• Successive hills might enhance or diminish the strength of the waves
• The waves are more pronounced when the buoyant and

inertial forces are comparable. The ratio is defined by Froude no.

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Can the flow characteristics be modelled ?

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Governing Equations

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Mountain Waves

Fr=1, stable stratification Fr=U/(NL) N2=(g/T)(dT/dz) Maximum amplitude on the leeward side of the hill

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Stokka

SANDNESSJØEN AIRPORT: STOKKA

Tail wind on both directions of the runway

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Fr=0.2, Lateral movement of air more pronounced

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Fr=1, Ideal condition for the propagation of waves Waves are diminished by destructive interference

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Confirm the Pilots experidence "Tail Wind from both sides of the runway"

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Can we forecast flight conditions ?

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The simulations seem to confirm pilot's reports BUT…..

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Global scales: seasonal changes, Sea currents etc. Meso scales: effects of large mountains, sea, forest, precipitation Micro scales: terrain effects, mountain waves Each model is capable of resolving only a particular range of spatio-temporal scales The problem can be handled through nesting of different models

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N E S T I N G

UM4 UM1 UM1 UM1

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Værnes airport

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Hammerfest airport

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Hammerfest

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Is the model Computationally efficient and robust?

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NJORD: Hardware Configurations

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• Technically

192 nodes partitioned into 186 nodes, 4 input/ output nodes. 186 nodes are shared memory nodes with 8 dual core power 5+ 1.9GHz processors each 180 of the computational noes have 32 GB memory each The code is parallelized using MPI

• Mythologically

NJORD is the God of the wind and fertility as well as the sea and merchants at sea and therefore was invoked before setting out to sea on hunting and fishing expeditions. He is also known to have the ability to calm the waters as well as fire.

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Robustness ?

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Validation strategy ?

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ALTA

Normal Flight path PILOTS REPORT:

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Realistic Boundary condition to run offline simulations

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Turbulence Intensity Contour (3) as a function of free stream speed

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www.ippc.no

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Automatic Wind Shear and Turbulence Alert System

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Conclusion

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• Operational Multiscale Model
• The prediction system confirms the experiences recorded in the pilots reports and gives

possible explanations

• The code has been validated extensively against wind tunnel data for cubes, hills, cylinders
• There is a scarcity of data for the validation of numerical codes but flight data, wind farm

data, weather station data can be used together to get better insight into the flow at microscales.

• The data from the different sources can be used for fine tuning and validating the model

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NORWAY IS STILL BEAUTIFUL