DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHY AND DIGITALIZATION ON ADEPP/ABV - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHY AND DIGITALIZATION ON ADEPP/ABV - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 17, 2023 194 likes •330 views

Pension Scheme of the Liberal Professions for Italian Engeneers and Architects DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHY AND DIGITALIZATION ON ADEPP/ABV European conference LIBERAL PROFESSIONS Bruxelles 6 giugno 2018 The President of Inarcassa

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DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHY AND DIGITALIZATION ON LIBERAL PROFESSIONS

The President of Inarcassa

  • Arch. Giuseppe Santoro

Bruxelles • 6 giugno 2018

ADEPP/ABV European conference Pension Scheme of the Liberal Professions for Italian Engeneers and Architects

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birth of «Casse di previdenza»

first pillar pension schemes

  • f liberal professions

late 1800s - early 1900s

notaries 1919 physicians 1937 Engineers 1958 and architects 1933 lawyers …. 1963 accountants

birth of Italian pension system

INPS 1933 from DB to NDC 1995 (Dini reform)

THE ITALIAN PENSION SYSTEM

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1995 Reform: from Define Benefits (DB) to Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) two types of workers: employees

(estremely long transition

period from DB to NDC)

liberal professions

Public Pension Agency INPS «Casse di previdenza»

Liberal Profession’s Pension Schemes are given the formal status of private institutions (some of them DB some others NDC)

main features: → enrolment compulsory → funding system: pay-as-you-go

THE ITALIAN PENSION SYSTEM

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Inarcassa is the Pension Scheme of the Liberal Professions for Italian Engeneers and Architects

its members tripled since 1995 privatization

Fonte:Inarcassa

ABOUT INARCASSA; A FEW NUMBERS

20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000 180.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000 180.000

1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017

Engineers Architects Total members

privatization

Total members 1990: 42.078 2017: 168.109

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total assets are 4,5 times more than in 2000

Source: Inarcassa

1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000 8.000 9.000 10.000 11.000

10 20 30 40 50 60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Assets Legal reserve Fund per member (left)

Total assets (1.000 di €) 2000 1.905.541 2017 10.112.839

(million €) (1.000 €)

2017

ABOUT INARCASSA

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income gender gap, geographic and generational differences

100 54 100 56 100 63

20 40 60 80 100

Males Females North South

  • ver 40 under 40

Source: Inarcassa Index: engineers, North, over 40=100

ABOUT INARCASSA

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8 Life expectancy (2016) is higher than Italian population and increasing Italy Inarcassa at 63 22,4 23,5 at 70 16,7 17,4

feminilization by now is paving his way in technical profession as well

(new membersmale/femal% composition)

Females: 27 Females: 41 Males:73 Males:59

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1996 2017

members’ average age is increasing it was 41,2y in 1996 it is now 45,6 ABOUT INARCASSA

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very different expected patterns expected in main Euro economies (index: 2016=100)

Source: Eurostat

population…

  • is expected to grow in France…
  • slightly decreasing in Germany
  • strongly decreasing in Italy

population (mln) 2000 2016 2066 Italia 57 61 54 Francia 61 67 79 Germania 82 82 78

100 100 100 92 97 114

90 95 100 105 110 115

Italy Germany France

2016 2066 2016 2066 2016 2066

EUROSTAT POPULATION FORECASTS 2016-2066

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decrease of Italian population predicted by Istat and Eurostat in the next 50y is expected to affect Inarcassa’s population as well as all other liberal professions

(Eurostat predicts a higher immigration flow w.r.t. Istat)

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Istat 2011 Istat 2016 Eurostat 2015

italian population Inarcassa’s population

Source: Istat and Eurostat Source: Inarcassa

160.000 170.000 180.000 190.000 200.000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

forecasts 2014 forecasts 2016

ITALY: DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS

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Source: Eurostat, 2016

labour force (%) in main European economies enrollment rate (%) to scientific subjects 82,2 75,4 74,8 73,6 67,6 55,2 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Germany France Italy Males Females 10,2 6,5 20,7 9,7 2,8 13,6 7,7 1,5 16,1 5 10 15 20 25

Sciences, Mathematics and Statistics ICT Engineering and construction

Germany France Italy

ITALIAN LABOR MARKET STEPS BACK COMPARED TO ITS PARTNERS

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Italy: automation and workers at risk

Source: Ambrosetti – European House

  • Less risk is associated to sectors

where high human capital is required (education, ICT and services)

  • automation of the economy is

related to the complexity and non- repetitiveness of tasks performed

Workers at risk by employment sector (% on total occupation)

Education and health Information and communication Personal services Real estate services Hotels and restaurants Construction Public Administration Financial activities Transport and storage Manufactruring Trade Agriculture and fishery

Total workers Workers at job-loss risk % workers at job loss risk

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Le cose più belle della nostra vita devono ancora accadere

Giuseppe Santoro Presidente di inarcassa