DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHY AND DIGITALIZATION ON ADEPP/ABV - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Pension Scheme of the Liberal Professions for Italian Engeneers and Architects DISRUPTIVE EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHY AND DIGITALIZATION ON ADEPP/ABV European conference LIBERAL PROFESSIONS Bruxelles • 6 giugno 2018 The President of Inarcassa Arch. Giuseppe Santoro

THE ITALIAN PENSION SYSTEM late 1800s - birth of early 1900s «Casse di previdenza» first pillar pension schemes of liberal professions birth of Italian pension system notaries 1919 INPS 1933 1933 lawyers physicians 1937 …. Engineers 1958 and architects 1963 accountants from DB to NDC 1995 (Dini reform) 2

THE ITALIAN PENSION SYSTEM 1995 Reform: from Define Benefits (DB) to Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) two types of workers: employees liberal professions ( estremely long transition period from DB to NDC) «Casse di previdenza» Public Pension Agency INPS Liberal Profession’s Pension Schemes are given the formal status of private institutions (some of them DB some others NDC) main features: → enrolment compulsory → funding system: pay-as-you-go 3

ABOUT INARCASSA; A FEW NUMBERS Inarcassa is the Pension Scheme of the Liberal Professions for Italian Engeneers and Architects its members tripled since 1995 privatization Engineers Total members 180.000 180.000 1990: 42.078 Architects 2017: 168.109 160.000 160.000 Total members 140.000 140.000 120.000 120.000 privatization 100.000 100.000 80.000 80.000 60.000 60.000 40.000 40.000 20.000 20.000 0 0 1990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 Fonte:Inarcassa 4

ABOUT INARCASSA total assets are 4,5 times more than in 2000 (1.000 € ) (million € ) Total Assets Legal reserve Fund per member (left) 11.000 Total assets ( 1.000 di € ) 60 10.000 9.000 1.905.541 2000 10.112.839 2017 50 8.000 7.000 40 6.000 5.000 30 4.000 3.000 20 2.000 1.000 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Inarcassa 5

ABOUT INARCASSA income gender gap, geographic and generational differences Index: engineers, North, over 40=100 100 100 100 100 80 60 63 56 54 40 20 0 Males Females North South over 40 under 40 7 Source: Inarcassa

ABOUT INARCASSA feminilization by now is paving his way in technical profession as well (new membersmale/femal% composition) 80 members ’ average age is Males:73 increasing 70 it was 41,2y in 1996 Males:59 60 it is now 45,6 Females: 50 41 Females: 40 Life expectancy (2016) 27 is higher than Italian population 30 and increasing 20 Italy Inarcassa 10 at 63 22,4 23,5 0 at 70 16,7 17,4 1996 2017 8

EUROSTAT POPULATION FORECASTS 2016-2066 very different expected patterns expected in main Euro economies (index: 2016=100) Italy Germany France 115 population … 114 110 is expected to grow in France… • slightly decreasing in Germany • 105 strongly decreasing in Italy • 100 population (mln) 2000 2016 2066 100 100 100 Italia 57 61 54 97 95 Francia 61 67 79 Germania 82 82 78 92 90 2016 2066 2016 2066 2016 2066 9 Source: Eurostat

ITALY: DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS decrease of Italian population predicted by Istat and Eurostat in the next 50y is expected to affect Inarcassa’s population as well as all other liberal professions (Eurostat predicts a higher immigration flow w.r.t. Istat) Inarcassa’s population italian population forecasts 2014 forecasts 2016 Istat 2011 Istat 2016 Eurostat 2015 64 200.000 62 190.000 60 58 180.000 56 170.000 54 52 160.000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Source: Inarcassa Source: Istat and Eurostat 10

ITALIAN LABOR MARKET STEPS BACK COMPARED TO ITS PARTNERS labour force (%) in main European economies 82,2 85 80 75,4 74,8 73,6 75 67,6 70 enrollment rate (%) to scientific subjects 65 25 60 20,7 55,2 20 55 16,1 13,6 15 50 10,2 9,7 Germany France Italy 7,7 10 6,5 2,8 Males Females 5 1,5 0 Sciences, ICT Engineering and Source: Eurostat, 2016 Mathematics and construction Statistics Germany France Italy 11

Italy: automation and workers at risk Workers at risk by employment sector (% on total occupation ) Less risk is associated to sectors • where high human capital is required (education, ICT and services) Public Administration Transport and storage Education and health Real estate services Financial activities Personal services Information and communication Agriculture and Manufactruring Construction Hotels and restaurants automation of the economy is • fishery Trade related to the complexity and non- repetitiveness of tasks performed % workers at job loss risk Total Workers at job-loss risk workers Source: Ambrosetti – European House 12

Le cose più belle della nostra vita devono ancora accadere Giuseppe Santoro Presidente di inarcassa