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Capital Markets Review Fourth Quarter 2017 DISCLAIMERS: Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions.


  1. Capital Markets Review Fourth Quarter 2017 DISCLAIMERS: Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for investment, accounting, legal and tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only. The views expressed are those of Strategic Asset Alliance. They are subject to change at any time. These views do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any other firm.

  2. Summary Capital Market Commentary – 4 th Quarter 2017  GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS o Global equities capped off a strong year with gains in the fourth quarter.  The S&P 500 ended a strong year with a fourth-quarter gain of +6.6%. US equities were supported by generally positive macroeconomic data, including better-than-expected third-quarter GDP growth of 3.0%. Lastly, a long-awaited tax reform bill was passed by Congress. Markets rallied on the news, with big permanent cuts for corporations as the centerpiece of the package.  Eurozone markets ended 2017 on a negative note with the MSCI EMU index returning -0.5% in the fourth quarter. Profit- taking after this year’s gains and a stronger euro were in part to blame for the downward move. Data showed the eurozone’s economy recovery continuing. The region’s GDP grew by 0.6% in the third quarter, albeit a slight slowdown from 0.7% in Q2. Meanwhile, inflation was 1.5% in November 2017, up from 0.6% in the same month in 2016. The unemployment rate fell to 8.8% in October, the lowest rate since January 2009.  Japanese equities posted gains as the incumbent political party (i.e. Liberal Democratic Party) won the October general election while corporate earnings were strong.  Emerging market equities recorded a strong gain in Q4 and outperformed developed markets with political developments supporting gains. 1 Source: Schroders, Wellington & SAA

  3. Summary Capital Market Commentary – 4 th Quarter 2017 o US Treasury yields rose over the quarter as the Fed hiked rates 0.25% in December, and the yield curve flattened amid growing momentum behind a tax reform bill which is expected to stimulate growth and inflation.  December saw yield volatility around this as doubts led to yields initially dropping to 2.34% before reversing to 2.50% in the run-up to the bill being approved by the Senate. For the quarter overall, 10- year yields increased from 2.33% to 2.41%, five-year yields rose from 1.93% to 2.21% and two-year yields from 1.48% to 1.89%.  In Europe, positive economic momentum continued unabated, with manufacturing activity at multi- year highs. The ECB announced the reduction of asset purchases, but extended the program, as well as higher growth forecasts; both announcements provided upward pressure on bond yields. Government yields in Spain, Italy and France performed well on the announcement, but the moves were either reduced or undone later on due to political factors.  Corporate bonds capped a good year with positive total returns, outperforming government bonds. Investment grade credit saw stronger returns than high yield, aside from in Europe, as the latter experienced challenging conditions in November having reached elevated valuations. 2 Source: Schroders, Wellington & SAA

  4. Executive Summary - Key Capital Market Index Returns Index Asset Class Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Q4-2017 2017 Trailing 3 Yr Trailing 5 Yr S&P GSCI Crude Oil U.S. Equity 4.66% 5.24% 5.30% 15.98% 4.09% -14.97% -17.84% Dow Jones Industrial Average U.S. Equity 4.44% 4.24% 1.92% 10.96% 28.11% 14.36% 16.37% S&P GSCI Commodities U.S. Equity 3.82% 1.38% 4.41% 9.90% 5.77% -7.52% -12.16% MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) International Equity 3.51% 0.21% 3.64% 7.50% 37.75% 9.50% 4.73% S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index U.S. Equity 1.34% 4.17% 1.15% 6.79% 16.35% 11.83% 15.85% S&P Composite 1500 Growth U.S. Equity 3.23% 2.88% 0.50% 6.74% 26.49% 12.82% 16.84% S&P 500 U.S. Equity 2.33% 3.07% 1.11% 6.64% 21.83% 11.41% 15.79% S&P Composite 1500 U.S. Equity 2.28% 3.12% 1.00% 6.53% 21.13% 11.41% 15.74% S&P MidCap 400 U.S. Equity 2.26% 3.68% 0.22% 6.25% 16.24% 11.14% 15.01% S&P Composite 1500 Value U.S. Equity 1.12% 3.43% 1.51% 6.17% 14.99% 9.54% 14.32% MSCI World Index World Equity 1.92% 2.22% 1.38% 5.62% 23.07% 9.88% 12.26% MSCI World Ex. US Index World Equity 1.38% 1.03% 1.82% 4.29% 24.81% 7.88% 7.97% MSCI EAFE Index International Equity 1.53% 1.06% 1.62% 4.27% 25.62% 8.30% 8.39% MSCI EAFE (Net) International Equity 1.52% 1.05% 1.61% 4.23% 25.03% 7.80% 7.90% S&P SmallCap 600 U.S. Equity 0.95% 3.52% -0.52% 3.96% 13.23% 12.00% 15.99% Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT U.S. Real Estate -1.09% 3.07% 0.03% 1.98% 3.76% 4.97% 9.09% BofA Merrill Lynch US Convertibles U.S. Convertible Bond 1.63% 0.12% -0.20% 1.56% 13.70% 6.80% 10.74% Barclays U.S. Treasury: U.S. TIPS U.S. Fixed Income 0.21% 0.13% 0.92% 1.26% 3.01% 2.05% 0.13% Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate Investment Grade U.S. Fixed Income 0.40% -0.15% 0.91% 1.17% 6.42% 3.90% 3.48% S&P/LSTA US Leveraged Loan Index U.S. Fixed Income 0.60% 0.12% 0.40% 1.11% 4.12% 4.44% 4.03% Citigroup WorldBIG Index World Fixed Income -0.36% 1.08% 0.32% 1.03% 7.43% 1.95% 0.93% Barclays Capital Municipal Bond U.S. Fixed Income 0.24% -0.54% 1.05% 0.75% 5.45% 2.98% 3.02% Barclays U.S. Government/Credit U.S. Fixed Income 0.09% -0.12% 0.52% 0.49% 4.00% 2.38% 2.13% Barclays Capital U.S. Corporate High Yield U.S. Fixed Income 0.42% -0.26% 0.30% 0.47% 7.50% 6.35% 5.78% Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate U.S. Fixed Income 0.06% -0.13% 0.46% 0.39% 3.54% 2.24% 2.10% Citigroup 3-month T-bill Cash/Cash Equivalent 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.28% 0.84% 0.38% 0.24% Merrill Lynch US Treasury Master U.S. Fixed Income -0.11% -0.12% 0.35% 0.11% 2.43% 1.47% 1.37% Barclays Intermediate U.S. Government/Credit U.S. Fixed Income -0.01% -0.31% 0.11% -0.20% 2.14% 1.76% 1.50% 10-Year US Treasury U.S. Treasury -0.23% -0.31% 0.26% -0.28% 2.07% 0.94% 0.97% 5-Year US Treasury U.S. Treasury -0.22% -0.43% -0.05% -0.71% 0.72% 0.92% 0.64% Alerian MLP Master Limited Partnerships -4.14% -1.35% 4.74% -0.95% -6.52% -9.33% -0.06% • SAA BOTTOMLINE : For Q4-2017, solid economic data globally, benign but increasing inflation, and positive corporate earnings growth continued to provide a foundation for positive risk asset performance (i.e. lots of green in the above heat chart). Indices sorted high/low by Q3 ‘17 performance. 3 - Source: Zephyr StyleAdvisor

  5. U.S. Fixed Income Sector Yields & Returns Index YTW 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 12/31/2015 12/31/2016 9/30/2017 12/31/2017 Aggregate 2.48% 2.25% 2.59% 2.61% 2.55% 2.71% U.S. Credit 3.18% 3.01% 3.54% 3.29% 3.08% 3.19% U.S. Treasury 1.44% 1.43% 1.73% 1.89% 1.95% 2.19% Municipal Bond 3.15% 2.09% 2.11% 2.65% 2.23% 2.36% U.S. High Yield 5.64% 6.61% 8.74% 6.12% 5.45% 5.72% U.S. 5-Yr Treasury 1.74% 1.65% 1.76% 1.92% 1.93% 2.19% U.S. 10-Yr Treasury 3.03% 2.17% 2.28% 2.43% 2.33% 2.41% Global Aggregate (USD) 2.11% 1.62% 1.77% 1.60% 1.61% 1.66% Change to Current Period Aggregate 0.23% 0.46% 0.12% 0.10% 0.16% U.S. Credit 0.01% 0.18% -0.35% -0.10% 0.11% U.S. Treasury 0.75% 0.76% 0.46% 0.30% 0.24% Municipal Bond -0.79% 0.27% 0.25% -0.29% 0.13% U.S. High Yield 0.08% -0.89% -3.02% -0.40% 0.27% U.S. 5-Yr Treasury 0.45% 0.54% 0.43% 0.27% 0.26% U.S. 10-Yr Treasury -0.62% 0.24% 0.13% -0.02% 0.08% Global Aggregate -0.45% 0.04% -0.11% 0.06% 0.05% U.S. Agg. vs. Global Agg. 0.37% 0.63% 0.82% 1.01% 0.94% 1.05% Note: Bloomberg Barclays Indices SAA BOTTOMLINE : This broken record continues to play on as the difference between U.S. and Global yields is now 1.05% as Fed • rate hikes continue the divergence between the U.S. and other developed markets’ central banks. Additionally, strong capital inflows from foreign investors continue as they seek higher yields which then contributes downward pressure on longer-dated U.S. fixed income maturities. Although concerns have heightened about U.S. inflation (i.e. wage inflation particularly), relatively benign inflation still poses • prospective difficulties to the Fed’s policy direction to raise rates. 4 Source: Bloomberg Barclays as of 12/31/2017

  6. Q4-2017 Fixed Income Sector/Duration - Total Return • SAA BOTTOMLINE : Short-term yields rose, the yield curve flattened, and spreads tightened amidst growing momentum behind the U.S. tax cut bill which is expected to stimulate growth and inflation. 5 Source: Bloomberg Barclays

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