Disaster Risk Reduction Campaigns Risk Management TEAM CHARLIE 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Disaster Risk Reduction Campaigns Risk Management TEAM CHARLIE 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
TRAINING FOR TRAINERS COURSE Disaster Risk Reduction Campaigns Risk Management TEAM CHARLIE 2 Which DRR campaigns are in place in Grenada? TEAM CHARLIE 3 TEAM CHARLIE 4 Periodic crises Sudden crises Ansafoto Creeping crises TEAM
TEAM CHARLIE 2
Risk Management
TEAM CHARLIE 3
Which DRR campaigns are in place in Grenada?
TEAM CHARLIE 4
Periodic crises
Sudden crises
Ansafoto
Creeping crises
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TEAM CHARLIE 10
Identify the hazards & risks
Identify 3 major hazards in your opinion most probably in Grenada
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"Black Swan“ theory
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2010) [2007], The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable (2nd ed.), London: Penguin, ISBN 978-0-14103459-1, retrieved 23 May 2012.
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a meta-phor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is
- ften inap-propriately rationalized after
the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
Be prepared to the unespected!
Les Fraser - www.photoradar.com
Black Swans
Black Swans
- Currently our approach to risk is "probabilistic“, and the
probability of a tsunami seriously damaging the Fukushima Daiichi plant was extremely small.
- But we should also consider a worst-case approach to
risk: the "possibilistic" approach, as Rutgers University sociologist Lee Clarke calls it in his 2005 book Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination.
- In this approach, things that never happened before are
- possible. Indeed, they happen all the time.
CHARLES PERROW Fukushima, risk and probability: expect the unexpected. Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 1 Apr. 2011
Black swans
- «To be wrong with infinite precision» (N. N. Taleb)
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict,
and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
- The non-computability of the probability of the
consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
- The psychological biases that make people individually
and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
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Black Swans
Present hazards and disasters are no longer individual phenomena but “an interactive mix of natural, technological and human events.” James, K. Mitchell, (ed.) Crucibles of Hazard: Megacities and disasters in transition. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1999, p. 484
Problems & Solutions “We can’t solve problems by using the same kind
- f thinking we used
when we created them” (Albert Einstein)
Identify the hazards & risks
Identify 3 possible black swans in your opinion for Grenada
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Identify the risks
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Identify the risks
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DRR campaign management
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- Project manager
- Project Team
- Time factor
- Meetings/agenda
- Effective planning
- Resources
- Tools
Build your own DRR campaign
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Time factor
- If a campaign objective is to
change behaviours, ensure that communications are presented at an appropriate time for the audience to receive, consider and act on the messages.
- The biggest resource requirement
is likely to be time. Do not underestimate the sustained effort required to plan and implement a campaign, even if external support is available.
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Planning a Campaign
- When planning a campaign, there are some basic things
to consider, including:
1. Objectives 2. Audience 3. Research & Concept 4. Delivering the message 5. Implementation 6. Timing 7. Utilising resources 8. Evaluating success
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Objectives
- Identifying objectives is a key starting point when
planning a campaign.
- Consider objectives in terms of what needs to change: it
may be attitudes (awarenwess too) or behaviours so it is important to describe objectives accurately and specifically, and to identify how effectiveness will be measured.
- The SMART approach serves as a useful reminder:
- bjectives should always be Specific, Measurable,
Achievable, Realistic and Timed
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Target audience
Think beyond the obvious: the primary audience for a DRR campaign might be kids, but there are many others who influence the process, including parents, teachers and friends. These will form secondary audiences, who might require a specific communications plan of their
- wn.
identify the target audience
- Scholars, youth
- Teachers
- Seniors
- Families
- Business
- Rescue services
- Local/national
Research
- Experts
- Wikipedia
- NADMA
- CEMA
- FEMA
- WHO
- …
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Experts vs. Memory
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Non expert risk awareness
Hazard Exposition Vulnerability
R=HxVxE H=10 V=10 E=10 R=10x10x10=1.000
Hazard & Risk
Hazard Exposition
R=HxVxE H=10 V=3 E=10 R=10x3x10=300
Vulnerability Protection
Hazard & Risk
Hazard Exposition Vulnerability
R=HxVxE H=10 V=10 E=1 R=10x10x1=100
Hazard & Risk
Hazard Exposition
R=HxVxE H=10 V=3 E=1 R=10x3x1=30
Protection Vulnerability
Hazard & Risk
1820 1856 2000
Fonte: Rizzolli S., 2004
Phenomena & disasters
Human presence and disasters
Rockfall Ronchi (Bz) 23th Jan 2014
Human presence and disasters
Delivering the message
- Recruitment campaigns
- Specific Trainings
- Public meetings
- Social media
- Games
- DRR days
- Flyers
- Contests
Delivering the message
- Messages should be clear, succinct and - most
importantly - few in number.
- Try to identify one key message for a campaign
with two or three supporting messages that reinforce the central point.
- Ensure that messages are appropriate for the
audience
- Do not be tempted to “say everything”
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Delivering the message
- New media, including the world wide web, should form a
central part of any communications campaign.
- The benefits include close control over message and
presentation, ease and speed of updating and widespread acceptance across audiences.
- Can also be used to present video and audio materials.
The medium is generally passive so the audience needs to be encouraged to visit your site (different to social media).
- It is essential, therefore, that your campaign is integrated
with other elements such as publications
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Communication channels
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Social Media
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Delivering the message
Delivering the message
- Publications offer a tangible product that can be
sent directly to the audience and provide absolute control over the message and its context.
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Delivering the message
- A media relations strategy can
support other vehicles of communication by reinforcing messages delivered via direct channels of communication.
- The “third-party endorsement”
- f media coverage (press,
radio, TV) can add significant weight to a campaign although there are no guarantees about how a message will be used
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Delivering the message
- Advertising is another
communication channel to
- consider. The costs of advertising
preclude its widespread use, but used tactically it can prove effective, especially in reinforcing messages.
- Advertising’s primary advantage is
full control over message and presentation coupled with wide coverage, but it can be a complex and expensive vehicle to use and is not always appropriate.
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Role of volunteers in DRR Campaigns
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Effective communication
- Language
- Culture
- History
- Point of view
- Tabus
- Mistake
Identify a slogan
3 to 5 words easy to remember
Mascot, Gadgets
identify a testimonial
Evaluation
- Evaluation is often overlooked but is a critical element.
- In an environment where professional communications is
not a core activity, justifying the time and expense of a campaign is important if it is to be taken seriously.
- Consider campaign evaluation at the earliest stages of
planning - objectives can then be set in a measurable way and the evaluation criteria can be defined and agreed in
- advance. Evaluation may include a repeat of any pre-
campaign research to review opinions and attitudes, as well as media analysis to examine the coverage received.
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Analyze the panel Find out the positive points and strenght
Workgroup
- 1. Identify a new topic
- 2. identify the best period
- 3. Slogan/mascot/testimonial
- 4. Logistics
- 5. Communication ways
- 6. Role of volunteers
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