Disaster and Science Post-Tohoku research actions in France March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Disaster and Science Post-Tohoku research actions in France

March 6, 2013

"HOW SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY OF HIS/HER COUNTRY HAS REACTED AFTER MARCH 11, 2011 EARTHQUAKE" ?

Question for the "Disaster and Science" session

Outline

• Introduction

– Background and surveyed institutions

• Individuals
• Research institutions

– Institutions – Funding agencies

• Administration in charge of natural &

technological risks

• Conclusions

Introduction

• French background

– moderate seismicity country

• Except French West Indies (Carribean area)

– Many nuclear reactors (58 on about 20 NPP sites + research reactors) – The research landscape : institutions and funding

• Surveyed institutions

– Research : INSU, IPGP, IFREMER – Nuclear industry : IRSN, EDF, CEA – National administration : DGPR (Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable

Develpment and Energy)

• Warning : Neither exhaustive nor fully objective !

– (my own bias …)

Euro-Mediterranean Tectonic framework

HCTISN, Paris, 24/10/2011

< 1 mm/year ≈ 1 cm/year

The Carribean tectonic framework

OPECST, Audition publique, 7 juillet 2010

(documents IPGP et GEOTER)

M7-8 - ?9 M6-7

≈ 2 cm/year

Instrumental and Historical Seismicity (≈ 700 years)

O P E C S T , A u d i t i o n p u b l i q u e , 7 j u i l l e t 2 0 1 0

M : 6+ to 7

Paleoseismicity ? Up to M7 in Rhône Valley

Seismic Hazard in France

8

• Design levels (475 year Return Period)

– Z2 : 0.7 m/s2 – Z3 : 1.1 m/s2 – Z4 : 1.6 m/s2 – Z5 : 3.0 m/s2 – (rock sites)

• Design levels for "ICPE" (Seveso-

type, about 5000 year Return Period)

– a5000 = a475 x 2.2 – Up to 3.4 m/s2 in metropolitan France, 6.6 in West Indies

Seimic Hazard and nuclear reactors in France

9

( + the deterministic / probabilistic issue)

Perception and Attitude of individuals

General

– Humility – Impressed by both the much limited shaking damage and the amount, quality and public availability of recorded data – Need for interdisciplinary research for complex accidents – Tighter links between "hard" and "soft" sciences – Questions about the actual involvement of scientists in critical decisions – Arguments for stronger positions and statements on hazard and design levels (whenever scientifically grounded)

More topical

– Motivation for investigations about subduction areas (especially French West Indies), search for evidence of extreme events, science and technology for warning systems, dispersion of contaminants, … – Behavior beyond design : identifying the origin of margins and quantifying them – Dealing with uncertainties – …

10

Research institutions 1

CNRS

– Motivating the research teams for specific proposals on the Tohoku event (ANR-JST Flash call) and improved hazard assessments – Specific call for "SHS" research projects : "NEEDS", Fukushima, one year later

• Nuclear, Energy, Environment, Waste and Society
• Interdisciplinarity : Life, Material, Engineering, and Social Sciences
• 5-year program

– First call (2012)

• Consequences of the nuclear accident on the population (lodging, displacing,

familial issues, environment and health, …)

• Social unrest and mobilization on nuclear issues (community organization, social

networks, information technology, public policy, governance, …)

• Knowledge transfer, intergeneration or very long term responsibility

(democracy and transparency, controversies, debates, public choices,…)

Research institutions 2

IPGP (Institute of Earth Physics, Paris)

– (in charge of observational systems in the French West Indies – among

• ther things…)

– Several post Sumatra 2004 actions confirmed by Tohoku

• Participation to the construction of a tsunami warning system in the Caribbean

area

• Update of seismological and geodetical monitoring systems (still very modest

compared to Japan….)

• Paleo-seismicity (coral reefs, tectonics)
• Imaging the subduction interface with marine seismics
• Tsunami warning with ionospheric signals

– New post-Tohoku initiatives

• Strengthening the opinion of several scientists about the possibility of M>8.5

events off-shore Guadeloupe and Martinique islands

• Proposals to the ANR-JST Flash call
• Proposal for sea bottom instrumentation (not funded)
• Proposal for seismic imagery of the deep subduction interface (under way)

Research institutions 3

IFREMER (Sea related research)

– Submission of short-term projects to the ANR-JST Flash call (not funded) – Using their expertise in coastal oceanography for modelling the dispersion of radioactive plumes in a marine environment (joint project with IRSN)

• Constructing numerical models and testing them
• Using them for the live prediction of contamination

immediately after an accident (i.e., within a few hours)

– Proposals for long-term projects

• (ANR-RSNR call) : coupling marine and aerial models for

dispersion of radioactive material

Nuclear energy domain

• Control Authority (ASN) : ECS

– "Complementary Safety Evaluations" – ? Margins for events beyond design ?

• Research : IRSN (Support research / technival expertise for ASN)

– Boost on internal research programs + partnership with other institutes – Need for extra funding : 10 ANR-RSNR proposals on 3 main topics

• Safety in case of severe accidents, failure of cooling systems,mitigation of

consequences, human factor

• external hazards (earthquakes, floods),
• radioprotection (humans, environment): effects of iodine on population,

radioactive transfers in the environment with special focus on the marine environment

– Not really new topics, but need to deepen and enlarge the investigations with new partners – and extra money

Nuclear energy domain : Operators

• (EDF, AREVA, CEA, …)
• Boosting some already existing R&D programs (SIGMA, Seismic hazard,

probabilistic vs deterministic, identifying the origin of uncertainties, quantifying and reducing them)

• Participation to ANR-RSNR proposals
• CEA : Fukushima learnings : supporting long term R&D
• Dynamic Behavior of structures
• Reactor behavior in case of major accident
• Radioprotection (human kind, environment)
• New "SEISM" Research group (EDF-CEA-ECP-ENSC)
• (Seismology & Earthquake Engineering for Risk Assessment Paris-Saclay

Research Institute)

• Gathering existing facilities and expertise in the same place (Paris-Saclay)
• "From fault to structure", tackling all issues to be dealt with for

"Probabilistic Safety Studies"

Funding agencies : ANR

• Specific calls

– Flash call (joint JST / ANR)

• 9 projects funded out of proposals, 0.9 M€
• Main results this afternoon

– RSNR 2012 (Research in Nuclear safety and radioprotection)

• What were the conditions leading to major nuclear accidents such as Fukushima

2011, and lessons from the "Complementary Safety Evaluations" ordered by ASN ?

• How were managed those major accidents by both the operators and the public

authorities ?

• Investigating the impact of those accidents in terms of radioactive emissions,

their effects on health and environment and the way to "reconquer" the contaminated areas

• Drawing the lessons for application on the presently existing French nuclear

installations, and for the design of future ones, in view of improving their

• perating safety, the resistance and the efficiency of all safety procedures and

devices in cse of extreme events

• "Open", regular calls

– No specific priority to Tohoku event related project

Results of the RSNR call

• To come !

– Expected 28/02/2013, postponed to mid March

• Long awaited by the whole community !

– The main source of extra research money for institutions and operators involved in nuclear energy – 41 proposals, probably about half will be funded (amounts reduced wrt original requests) – 50 M€

National administration: MEDDE/DGPR

• Focus on "NaTech" issues

– Coupling between Natural hazards and Technological Risks – Feedback from the Tohoku event : Industrial accidents linked to the earthquake and tsunami

• (overview report to be posted on line soon)
• No real impact on other already existing

earthquake mitigation plans

– ("Plan séisme Antilles", ongoing for about 6 years)

Conclusions

• Hazard Issues

– Mainly raising the awareness of individual scientists and engineers

• New bottom-up proposals, not necessarily funded

– No real visible short term consequences on risk management policy at the State level for "our" subduction area

• No extra priorities on extreme events
• Technological Issues

– Clearly the main concern (due to the deep involvement of French society and companies in nuclear energy) – Most visible investments at the State level through ANR and CGI (announced total funding: 50 M€) – Extension to critical, non nuclear facilities

Mostly bottom-up Mostly top-down