Diaspora Externalities: A View from the South
Hillel Rapoport │ hillel.rapoport@psemail.eu
Paris School of Economics, UniversitéParis 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
UNI-WIDER Conference on Migration and Development Accra, October 6, 2017
Diaspora Externalities: A View from the South UNI-WIDER Conference - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Diaspora Externalities: A View from the South UNI-WIDER Conference on Migration and Development Accra, October 6, 2017 Hillel Rapoport hillel.rapoport@psemail.eu Paris School of Economics, UniversitParis 1 Panthon-Sorbonne Migration
Paris School of Economics, UniversitéParis 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne
UNI-WIDER Conference on Migration and Development Accra, October 6, 2017
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Felbermayr and Toubal (2012)
that immigrants expand trade with their country of origin. Elasticities around 10 percent for exports (information) and 30 percent for imports (information+preferences).
bilateral setting (South-North migration to OECD countries), with no evidence of stronger effects for skilled immigrants; see also Felbermayr and Toubal (2012) on information.
results since immigration may be correlated with unobserved factors that affect trade, such as trading partners’ cultural similarity
results since immigration may be correlated with unobserved factors that affect trade, such as trading partners’ cultural similarity
Trade: The Vietnamese Boat People as a Natural Experiment”
to US between 1975-1994 with concurrent Trade Embargo; quasi- random allocation Vietnamese Refugees in 1975
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Vietnamese is quasi-random, e.g. uncorrelated with immigrant preferences and exogenous to economic
the case overload created a quasi random allocation of refugees
with US State characteristics
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Parsons and Vezina (forthcoming)
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Pro-Export effect of the Vietnamese Exports to Vietnam
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FDI outflows from OECD countries to different world regions
Source: World Bank and own calculations
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reduction in international business transaction costs.
migration and FDI. As migrants could both decrease the costs of trade and FDI the outcome is a priori ambiguous
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The effect of migration on the extensive margin: trade vs. FDI
Source: Aubry, Reshef, and Rapoport (2017)
The Effect of Migration on Trade & FDI separately
Source: Aubry, Reshef, and Rapoport (2017)
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The Effect of Migration on FDI over Trade ratio
Source: Aubry, Reshef, and Rapoport (2017)
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Cross Border Capital Flows by type in Developing Countries
Source: Tyson et al. 2014
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Kugler, Levintal & Rapoport (2017)
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Kugler, Levintal & Rapoport (2017)
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Kugler, Levintal & Rapoport (2017)
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Research Question
basket composition of their sending and receiving countries?
product-specific productivity shifts in their sending and/or receiving countries?
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products, with two defined time periods: 1990-2000 and 2000- 2010
demand, excluding bilateral trade possibly generated by network effects, instrumenting for migration using a gravity model.
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Summary of results
coming from countries exporters of product p is associated with a ~2% increase in the likelihood country c will export product p with RCA ≥ 1 (extensive margin) and with higher annual CAGR of 0.06pp/0.07pp (intensive margin) in the next 10 year period. Immigrants seem to dominate emigrants when entered jointly at the extensive margin.
times more "effective" than unskilled migrants.
sample (see next Table)
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that ends with its disintegration into 6 countries (7 later on). Croatia and Slovenia secede first.
and Croatia
independence, too, leading to internal war between muslims, serbs and croats (though fueled by leaders and armed forces in Serbia and Croatia)
Dayton, OH (USA) after several years
displacement of civilian populations
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Yugoslavians fled to Germany
protection (Duldung) status. Both options allowed them to work, and indeed they integrated into German labor force in different industries
program for Yugoslavians
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Why Moldova? Two unique data features 1) Bipolar migration regime – Two main destinations Identification of destination- specific effects
Migration to the East 172,718 (63%)
Russia 89% Ukraine 5% Turkey 5% Other 1%
Migrat ation to the e West 100,345 (37%)
Italy 53% Romania 10% Other EU27 35% Other (US etc) 2%
20 40 60 80 100 5 10 15 20 Prevalence of migration to the East 2004 (%) 20 40 60 80 100 5 10 15 Prevalence of migration to the West 2004 (%)
Migration to the East/West and Share of Communist Votes
East West
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Russian financial crisis ~ begin of emigration n.a. Emigrants (bars) Calls from abroad 100 200 300 400 1000 emigrants / 1000 hours per week 10 20 30 40 50 60 1998 2001 2005 2009 Year of parliamentary election Communist votes in all communities Communist votes in communities with high levels of emigration to the West Communist votes in communities with high levels of emigration to the East Number of emigrants (in 1000 emigrants, right axis) Volume of calls from abroad (in 1000 hours per week, right axis)
Communist votes, number of emigrants in stocks, and volume of calls from abroad to Moldova, 1998-2009
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Share of votes for the Communist Party (%) Share of votes for
Basic controls Plus pre- migration election results Plus night- time light (full model) Liberal Democratic Party Liberal Party Demo- cratic Party Party Alliance Our Moldova (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Prevalence of emigration to the West (%)
0.40*** 0.24** 0.08
(0.20) (0.18) (0.18) (0.13) (0.11) (0.12) (0.15) Prevalence of emigration to the East (%) 0.44** 0.39** 0.39**
(0.17) (0.16) (0.16) (0.09) (0.07) (0.08) (0.11) Basic controls yes yes yes yes yes yes yes Pre-migration election results
yes yes yes yes yes Night-time light
yes yes yes yes District fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes yes yes Number of observations 848 848 848 848 848 848 848 R2 0.78 0.82 0.82 0.56 0.66 0.42 0.37
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birthrates in MENA countries whose main destination is the West while it is associated with higher birthrates where emigration is going Eastward (i.e., to the Gulf countries)
with careful empirical analysis of return households to Egypt.
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and culture plays a major role in the creation of institutions, economic integration into the world market, and the wealth of nations more generally (Guiso et al. 2006; Aghion et al. 2010; Alesina & Giuliano 2015)
culture and in making home/host countries closer/more distant culturally?
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Related Work: Trade-based cultural change Olivier, Thoenig and Verdier (2008)
existed under autarky may even disappear under free trade
founded OLG model of cultural transmission
dissimilar across countries over time because countries "specialize" on the production of the cultural good for which they have the comparative advantage
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Maystre, Olivier, Thoenig and Verdier (2014)
founded OLG model of cultural transmission, shows that (even temporary) shocks to trade openness make countries culturally more similar
between trade and cultural similarity, particularly for the trade in differentiated good (goods with a high "cultural content")
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Rapoport, Sardoschau & Silve (2017) 1. Develop a set of bilateral cultural proximity measures along different statistical and topical dimensions 2. Develop a model of migration based cultural change to identify the conditions under which there is (bilateral) cultural convergence or divergence 3. Empirically test these conditions with the help of data from the World Value Survey and World Bank bilateral migration data
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Selection Effect
– Migrants move to a country with norms and values more similar to their own, leaving behind more dissimilar values and norms, and a more homogeneous population Cultural Divergence
Diffusion Effect
– Migrants bring their culture to the melting pot at destination Cultural Convergence
Transmission Effect (social remittances)
– Migrants remit their norms and values back home Cultural Convergence
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Theoretical model has 2 layers: 1) A compositional model of migration (cultural incentives for migration)
– Individuals emigratefor both economic and cultural reasons 2) International migrationand intergenerational culturaltransmission (based on Bisin & Verdier, 2000)
– Imperfect Altruism with horizontal and vertical cultural transmission
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Statistical Distance Measures: Data:
with questions on attitudes, norms, and beliefs
between decades to match WVS waves)
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Specification:
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Migration and Cultural Proximity (5 year and 10 year lag)
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Countries that are initially more similar converge at a lower rate
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Where does this global cultural convergence come from? Mostly South-North Migration!
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Convergence remains when ruling out compositional effects
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