DFID-Funded Collaborative HPAI Research Project for Asia and Africa - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods in the Mekong Region

A Collaborative Research Project Funded by: Implemented by:

DFID-Funded Collaborative HPAI Research Project for Asia and Africa

• J. Otte, DU Pfeiffer and D. Roland-Holst

Workshop on HPAI Research in Southeast Asia Bangkok, 21 January 2008

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Overview

• Background &

Motivation

• Project Goal &

Objectives

• International Partners

& Focal Points

• Main Issues (Research

& Non-Research)

• Principles

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

HPAI Threats

• Poor peoples’ livelihoods

– disease itself – control measures

• Poultry industry

– in affected countries – in non-affected countries

• Global public health

– rural populations – urban populations

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Economic Impact of Selected Diseases

• Estimated Cost

Avian Flu, EU $500m

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

$50bn $40bn $30bn $20bn $10bn

BSE, UK $10-13bn Foot & Mouth Taiwan, $5-8bn 1992 1993 1994 1995

Foot & Mouth UK $30bn

2004 BSE, US $3.5bn

BSE, Canada $1.5bn

Lyme disease US, $2.5bn

SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada,… $50bn+

Nipah, Malaysia $350-400m Swine Flu, Netherlands $2.3bn BSE, Japan 1.5bn

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Motivation

• Approach taken to control HPAI:

– top-down / command & control – almost exclusively technical orientation – short on institutional analysis – no use of market-based instruments – anti smallholder bias!!

• More of the ‘same’

– laboratory networks – disease ‘intelligence & control centres’

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Research Issues & Gaps

• Viral genomics – virus

evolution

• Pathogenesis – in

humans and poultry

• Immunology – vaccine

development

• Disease ecology &

epidemiology

• Differential impacts of

disease and disease control

• Cost-effectiveness / cost-

benefit of control

• Institutional angles of

HPAI control

• Externalities / ‘global

public goods’ aspects of HPAI control

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Project Goal

Safe smallholder poultry enterprises and poultry markets in regions affected or at risk

• f HPAI while

minimizing the potential spread of HPAI to humans

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Project Objectives

1. Provide scientific basis for

• cost-effective, and
• ‘socially just’

HPAI control strategies, 2. ‘Inject’ insights into

• national,
• regional and global

policy processes, and 3. Build capacity for evidence- based formulation of disease control policy

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

International Partner Institutions

International Food Policy Research Institute Clare Narrod, Devesh Roy International Livestock Research Institute Jeff Mariner, Karl Rich Royal Veterinary College, University of London Dirk Pfeiffer RDRC, Berkeley University, California David Roland-Holst, David Zilberman Food & Agriculture Organisation, Rome Joachim Otte, Anni McLeod

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Regional / Country ‘Responsibility’

Indonesia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria & Ghana / Burkina F. The Mekong Region: Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam (Lao PDR)

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Research Domains

Effectiveness

• f control

measures Economic impacts

• f control

measures Incentives for (non-) compliance

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Effectiveness of Control Measures

• Vaccination (vaccine?

species? bird type? timing?.....)

• ‘Bio-security’ (farm?

supply chain? markets? waste mgmt?..)

• Culling (radius? timing?

tracing?....)

• Surveillance (sensitivity?

specificity?....)

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Economic Impact of HPAI & Control

Percent 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 HH Farm

• Ent. Farm

Poultry Ind. Food Process Production Processing Distribution Demand Export Urban HH Rural HH

Thailand

Percent 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Production Processing Distribution Demand Urb HH Rural HH

Viet Nam

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Economic Impact of HPAI & Control

Scale

• Within-household
• Poultry sectors and supply

chain agents

• National economy (spillover to

/ compensatory gains by other sectors)

• International / global

Time Frame

• Short-term / immediate
• Long term impacts

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

South North

Source: Pfeiffer et al., 2005

Incentives for Compliance

Sterile provinces

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Research community & direct associates Policy makers / advisors

Communication Capacity building

‘Non-Research’ Domains

Field data collectors & data analysts

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

Project ‘Principles’

• transparent, disclosure of

interim findings

• collaborative & trans-

disciplinary

• iterative, ongoing

adjustments

• constructive peer review
• end-user focused
• open to partnerships

Controlling Avian Flu and Protecting People’s Livelihoods | Mekong Region

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