Food Systems Contents DFID Food Systems Learning Journey - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Food Systems Contents DFID Food Systems Learning Journey - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 14, 2023 653 likes •1.1k views

Food Systems Contents DFID Food Systems Learning Journey Foresight4Food Initiative South Asia Food Systems / Food Energy Water Nexus Farmers and Food Systems OSF IFSTAL Principles for Responsible Investment -WBG EU

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Food Systems

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Contents

  • DFID Food Systems Learning Journey
  • Foresight4Food Initiative
  • South Asia Food Systems / Food Energy Water Nexus
  • Farmers and Food Systems – OSF
  • IFSTAL
  • Principles for Responsible Investment -WBG
  • EU Food Systems Interest
  • EAT/WEF/WBCSD Food Systems Dialogue
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Food security and stability, migration, transparency Inclusive Growth Infrastructur e and innovation key to ag Large employe r Water use,

  • n farm solar

Reducing water use in ag, reducing pollution Ag is key to empowerment Food and Nutrition security Healthy Diet Paying for education Sustainably feeding cities Ag impact on biodiversity and soils Demand on fisheries, healthy diets Food waste Climate resilient ag, reducing agifood emissions Inclusive Growth Governance

  • f food

systems

Food Systems

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DFID

  • Purchased food, urbanization and nutrtion
  • Food systems in areas of protracted crises
  • Realising the inclusive economic value of agri-food systems
  • Impact of food crisis on most vulnerable
  • Impact of climate and resource decline on food systems
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Foresight4Food

Foresgiht4food.net

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Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

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Source: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015

… and who all operate influenced a range of ‘Environments’ that drive actor motives.

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Or just to attempt to integrate everything!

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Migration Violence Unemployment Health costs Poor diet Disease Low productivity Degraded / overused resources Climate impacts Lower yields Erratic production levels Food shortages Price spikes Disease outbreaks Trade restrictions Poverty Competition for resources

Security

Systemic Risks

Environment Health Reduced investment Weakened economy

FOOD

Gender inequality

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Mega Trends

  • Population
  • Urbanization
  • Diet
  • Climate
  • Resource decline

18 29 16 30 37 25 60 54 45

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Rapid urbanization & rising middle class…

Projected urban share of global population

Urban

67% 2050

2014

Urban 54%

Source: Ruel et al. 2017

  • Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia

and Africa

  • China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents

Source: OECD 2010

20 40 60 80 2009 2020 2030 North America Europe Central and South America Asia Pacific

Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)

Source: UN 2014

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V

Fruits & Vegetables 49% Cereals and Starches 20% Milk & Milk Products 8% Meat, fish, eggs, beans 20%

V E G O I L

Oils & Fats 3% Limit

What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model) What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO)

Fruits & Vegetables 11% Cereals and Starches 47%

VE G OIL

Oils & Fats 11% Sugar 16% Milk and Milk Products 4% Meat, fish, eggs, beans 11%

WHO< 5% Evan Fraser, Guelph, FBS analysis, 2015

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The Lancet Volume 387, Issue 10026, Pages 1377-1396 (April 2016)

Very very obese Very obese Obese Overweight Normal Low normal Underweight Trends in age-standardised prevalence of BMI categories in women, global

Global malnourishment: the food system doesn’t deliver health through diets

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Bajzelj et al (2013)

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Supply chain logistics

11% cereals trade 60% US grain export 26% cereals trade ~20% fertilisers 14% cereals trade 14% cereals trade ~25% fertilisers (50% China’s soy and wheat)

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Global markets affect local events

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Knowledge Base to Inform Analysis and Dialogue (5) eg Actors - their Values and Interests (2) Understanding the System of Analysis (7) Trends & Drivers in the System (8) Scenarios (9) Visions (10) Influencing Change (11)

Stakeholder Engagement(4)

Participatory Methods and tools (6)

Quantitative Modelling Qualitative analysis and insight from actors Stakeholder analysis Empirical Evidence

Framework for Understanding Foresight and Scenario Analysis

Real World Situation (1)

Systems analysis

Purpose and Motivation for Foresight (3)

Note: Numbers are for textual description of the framework and are not a series of

  • steps. The elements of foresight may be implemented concurrently and/or iteratively

Game Theory (how actors may respond) Data Sets

Woodhill 2018

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Rubics Cube of Food Systems Transformation

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South Asia Food energy water nexus

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Farmers and Food Systems Project

  • 12 month project funded by Open Society Foundation
  • Updated perspective on long term future for small-scale agriculture in

global food system

  • What are the systemic risks?
  • What are the transformational opportunities?
  • Case studies in Zambia and Ghana
  • Exploring foresight, scenario and systems methodology with OSF

partners

  • Providing analysis for OSF on future programming
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Taking a System View

Smallholder Production value adding and Marketing Systems Rural Livelihoods Policy Influences & Natural Resources & Climate Change Consumption Food Market Systems Global Regional National Local Drivers Trends Issues Opportunities Large Scale farming

How will population, urbanization and diet change Who will produce? What will be traded? How will business models change? What is a living income? What are non-farm incomes? Living income

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Transformation of Small-Scale Agriculture

Stepping Up Hanging-In Moving-out

Policies to support small-scale farmers to be commercial and competitive Policies to help farmers trade-up

  • r move out

Social protection to help those in poverty Policies to create decent jobs and provide skills Social protection to help those in poverty

What scale of change over what period makes sense ?

Getting the Policy Mix Right Living income

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Principles for Responsible INvestment

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Implementation Pathways

Institutional Embedding Mobilizing Understanding, Commitment and Capacity

3) Support by Development and Multi- Lateral agencies 6) Embedding in Standards for Private and Public Financing 5) Embedding in Government Policy, Regulation, Programmes and Funding 1) Promotion by Business and Multi-stakeholder Platforms and Round Tables 2) Advocacy by Civil Society and Consumer Groups 4) Embedding in Public and Private Standards for Sourcing and Trade

Application in Business Operations

9) Integration into Business Operations

  • f Regional and

Domestic Firms / SMEs / Producers 7) Integration into Business Operations

  • f Global Firms

8) Integration into Coordinated Supply Chain and Sector Initiatives

Know How Incentives Know How Incentives Know How Incentives

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Conditions and Processes for Implementation

Principles Stakeholder Engagement Capability

for Policy Development And for Technical Implementation

Embedding

in Policies, Standards, and Processes

Use in Decision Making and Operations Monitoring Use and Impacts Incentives

  • Profitability
  • Access to finance
  • Reputational
  • Reliability of supply
  • Competitive
  • Legal

Governance

  • Global transparency and

accountability

  • International commitments

and agreements

  • Stakeholder consultation
  • Regional collaboration
  • National decision making
  • Private sector processes
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EU Food systems

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EAT/WEF/WBCSD Food Systems Dialogue

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V

Fruits & Vegetables 49% Cereals and Starches 20% Milk & Milk Products 8% Meat, fish, eggs, beans 20%

V E G O I L

Oils & Fats 3% Limit

What we should be eating (Harvard's Healthy Eating Plate Model) What we are actually producing (According to 2011 FAO)

Fruits & Vegetables 11% Cereals and Starches 47%

VE G OIL

Oils & Fats 11% Sugar 16% Milk and Milk Products 4% Meat, fish, eggs, beans 11%

WHO< 5% Evan Fraser, Guelph, FBS analysis, 2015

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Rapid urbanization & rising middle class…

Projected urban share of global population

Urban

67% 2050

2014

Urban 54%

Source: Ruel et al. 2017

  • Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia

and Africa

  • China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents

Source: OECD 2010

20 40 60 80 2009 2020 2030 North America Europe Central and South America Asia Pacific

Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)

Source: UN 2014

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The Lancet Volume 387, Issue 10026, Pages 1377-1396 (April 2016)

Very very obese Very obese Obese Overweight Normal Low normal Underweight Trends in age-standardised prevalence of BMI categories in women, global

Global malnourishment: the food system doesn’t deliver health through diets

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Bajzelj et al (2013)

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Supply chain logistics

11% cereals trade 60% US grain export 26% cereals trade ~20% fertilisers 14% cereals trade 14% cereals trade ~25% fertilisers (50% China’s soy and wheat)

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Global markets affect local events

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Emerging Issues

  • Food safety
  • Health costs
  • Antimicrobial resistance
  • Disease and pest outbreaks
  • Food Crises
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Technological innovations

Scale-up new, multiple-win technologies

Source: WEF 2018

Blockchain-enabled traceability

  • Enhances transparency & traceability of the

food supply chain, land tenure, payments, etc.

  • Reduces transaction costs

At the same time, need to consider the impact of these technologies

  • n smallholders, children’s nutrition, jobs, etc.

Food-sensing technology

  • Contributes to reducing domestic food waste
  • Identifies pathogens to improve food safety &

prevent costly product recalls

Alternative proteins

  • Can help reduce agricultural GHG emissions

and fresh water withdrawals

  • Also alleviate health risks associated with meat

consumption

Gene editing for seed improvements

  • Can help produce more crops and increase

farmer incomes

  • Also improve nutrition outcomes
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What is a Small-Scale Farmer?

  • Different land size
  • Different assets
  • Different incomes
  • Different locations
  • Different access to markets
  • Different skills
  • Different livelihoods (sources of income)
  • Different interests and motivations
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Business models

If Ghana is heading to a population of over 50 million that is 80% urbanized what different business models will emerge for small-scale farmers?

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From Production Needs to Business Model Thinking

Business Model Canvass

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Question

  • In groups of three discuss what you see as different business models

that could emerge over the next 20 years that would benefit smale- scale farmers?

  • Who would they be selling to?
  • How would the market be organized?
  • How would aggregation to achieve economies of scale be organized?