Development of a TIMES model for the Walloon Region (Belgium) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Development of a TIMES model for the Walloon Region (Belgium) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 14, 2023 512 likes •668 views

Development of a TIMES model for the Walloon Region (Belgium) Presentation to ETSAP meeting - Goteborg - 18 June 2018 Marco Orsini (ICEDD), Nathalie Arnould (DGO4), Ornella Dupont (DGO4) En Pour le Service public de Wallonie

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Development of a TIMES model for the Walloon Region (Belgium)

  • Presentation to ETSAP meeting - Goteborg - 18 June 2018
  • Marco Orsini (ICEDD), Nathalie Arnould (DGO4), Ornella Dupont (DGO4)

Boulevard Frère Orban 4 5000 Namur Tel : 081 25 04 80 www.icedd.be

Pour le Service public de Wallonie DIRECTION GENERALE OPERATIONNELLE - AMENAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE, LOGEMENT, PATRIMOINE ET ENERGIE Département de l’énergie et du bâtiment durable En collaboration avec:

Bureau Fédéral du Plan

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  • Background > Regional competences and the relevance of a tool such as

TIMES in the context of RW

  • Building up the model > challenges and opportunities of starting

from (almost) scratch

  • The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the reality
  • f data
  • Assumptions > Rational discussion is useful only when there is a

significant base of shared assumptions (N. Chosky).

  • (Scenarios & ) Results > finally…
  • Next steps > once you start you cannot stop!

Outline

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Background

Figure: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A 9gion_wallonne

Population: 3,6 M Primary energy consumption: +- 170 TWh

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  • The institutional setting > RW competences related to energy

(and climate) > renewable energy production and energy efficiency

  • Need of a tool, transparent and flexible
  • To help political decisions (regional plan, measures choices, …)
  • To report on scenarios (with existing measures/with additional

measures)

 No perfect model  ETSAP opportunity => TIMES model

Background

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  • Building up the model > challenges and opportunities of

starting from scratch

  • Not really from scratch > the Belgian TIMES model > not really

fit to RW needs

  • Huge amount of data on energy > not always organised,

consistent and coherent

Building up the model

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  • The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the

reality of data

  • One region > which implies exogenous assumptions on

imp/exp of electricity

  • 2050 Horizon
  • 24 times slices > optimisation « à la VITO »

The structure of the model

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The structure of the model

  • The structure of the model > the art of compromise with the

reality of data

  • Reduced supply sector
  • Residential sector: 3 houses types + appart. / 5 age classes
  • Commercial sector: 5 subsectors
  • Transport sector: coherency (not fully yet) with COPERT RW
  • « Classic » electricity generation

7

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Assumptions

  • Assumptions (in all scenarios) > Rational discussion is useful only

when there is a significant base of shared assumptions (N. Chosky).

  • Phasing out of nuclear > as it is in the current legilsation

(completed by 2025)

  • No import/export of electricity
  • No offshore wind energy
  • Constraints on: renewable potentials, renovation rates
  • Prices > mostly aligned with lastest EU and BE figures (e.g. fuels

prices projections as in the BfP studies) 8

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  • (some surprising) Results:
  • Nuclear replaced by gas and wind, no PV, biomass (if existing

subsides stay)

  • No need of further storage (in REF and EU2030 scenarios)
  • Heat pumps (for Commercial) and renovation of buildings

(windows & roofs) > competitvness of these solutions

Results

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  • Consumption of electricity (PJ) - REF

Results

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  • Production of electricity (PJ) - REF

Results

avec subsides (CV) sans subsides (CV)

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  • Opportunities > existing experiences (i.e. belgian TIMES

model, ETSAP experts, …), but adaptation needed

  • Biggest challenge at this step > data collection > also an
  • pportunity to centralise and challenge results of other studies !
  • Economic optimisation > advantage and limit (some lack of

realism => added constraint)

  • Tools > transparence and flexibility

Lessons learnt

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  • Next steps
  • Improvement of structure and data
  • Exploration possibility to use TIMES for reporting obligation (EU,

UNFCCC)

  • Consultation of (external) stakeholders

Next steps

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Thank you for your attention!

Marco Orsini (mo@icedd.be), Nathalie Arnould (nathalie.arnould@spw.wallonie.be), Ornella Dupont (ornella.dupont@spw.wallonie.be) Akwnoledgements Maurizio Gargiulo (E4SMA) - Jan Duerinck (VITO) – Dominique Gusbin & Danielle Devogelaar (Bureau Federal du Plan) – Laurent Noirhomme (Climact)

Boulevard Frère Orban 4 5000 Namur Tel : 081 25 04 80 www.icedd.be

Pour le Service public de Wallonie DIRECTION GENERALE OPERATIONNELLE - AMENAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE, LOGEMENT, PATRIMOINE ET ENERGIE Département de l’énergie et du bâtiment durable En collaboration avec:

Bureau Fédéral du Plan