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Overview
- Motivation
- Project information
- Objectives
- Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull eruption
- Operational demonstration services
Development and Operational Testing of New Volcanic Ash Prediction - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Development and Operational Testing of New Volcanic Ash Prediction - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Zentralanstalt fr Meteorologie und Geodynamik Development and Operational Testing of New Volcanic Ash Prediction Services for International Aviation Gerhard Wotawa (1) and Andreas Stohl (2) (1) National Meteorological Centre Vienna (ZAMG),
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Motivation
Main motivation of the VAST project is to develop, document and test improved data and modelling services for aviation after volcanic eruptions The VAST project will
- Follow up on the recommendations provided by the European Volcanic Ash
Cloud Experts Group (EVACEG) and the ESA-EUMETSAT workshop on the 14 April to 23 May 2010 eruption at the Eyjafjallajökull volcano
- Take into account and support the international processes, procedures and
responsibilities, for example in the framework of the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) program
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VAST: Project information
Volcanic Ash Strategic-initiative Team (VAST) Funded by: ESA (Strategic Initiative) Start: Mai 2012, Duration: 36 Months Partners
- Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Norway
- Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland
- National University in Galway (NUIG), Ireland
- Zentralanstalt für Meteorolgie und Geodynamik (ZAMG),
Austria
- S&T Corp AS (S&T), Norway
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VAST Objectives
- To identify user requirements for products needed in the case of volcanic
eruptions
- To investigate satellite retrievals for volcanic ash
- To evaluate and improve ash dispersion models
- To integrate Earth Observation Data and Models
- To develop and introduce a volcanic ash prediction system
- To create demonstration services for users and modellers
- To provide training regarding VAST services and modelling
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Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull (Modelling)
There was strong similarity of model results between the VAAC London in charge of producing official products and other Centers publishing forecasts
Official VAAC London product ZAMG prediction for Austrian authorities
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Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull (Modelling)
Compared with measurement data, models worked well in reproducing the vertical/horizontal shape of the ash cloud
FLEXPART ash concentration versus particle number (>5 µm) at Sonnblick Observatory FLEXPART predicted versus measured vertical profile of aerosols
- ver Leipzig (DLR)
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Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull (source term)
Regarding source term, it was shown that reasonable estimates by combining model results with measurement data are possible.
- Stohl et al., 2011: 8 Tg particles in diameter range 2.8–28 μm
(Inverse modelling based on EO data)
- ZAMG immediate estimate: 4 Tg particles in PM10 range for
April 14-18 eruption (comparison of operational FLEXPART
- utput with Jungfraujoch PM10 measurements)
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Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull (source term)
Inverse modeling schemes have been scientifically evaluated and shown to work with various input data (EO and in-situ). Operational value remains to be seen.
A priori A posteriori (ECMWF) A posteriori (GFS)
Stohl et al., 2011
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Operational Implementation
As part of WP7000, operational demonstration services will be provided by ZAMG. The services will be available in the second and third year of the project
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Operational demonstration services
The following demonstration services are planned:
- Operational EO data and product retrieval
- Operational Modeling, including ensemble predictions
- Operational ash source term service (inverse modeling)
- Exercises
A cooperation with the VAACs and National Weather Services is aimed at (ensemble predictions, source term)
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