Development and Operational Testing of New Volcanic Ash Prediction - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik Development and Operational Testing of New Volcanic Ash Prediction Services for International Aviation Gerhard Wotawa (1) and Andreas Stohl (2) (1) National Meteorological Centre Vienna (ZAMG), Austria (2) NILU, Kjeller, Norway gerhard.wotawa@zamg.ac.at Presented at the AGU Chapman Conference on Volcanism and the Atmosphere, Selfoss, Iceland, 10-15 June 2012

Overview 18.09.2013 Page 2 • Motivation • Project information • Objectives • Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull eruption • Operational demonstration services Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Motivation 18.09.2013 Page 3 Main motivation of the VAST project is to develop, document and test improved data and modelling services for aviation after volcanic eruptions The VAST project will • Follow up on the recommendations provided by the European Volcanic Ash Cloud Experts Group (EVACEG) and the ESA-EUMETSAT workshop on the 14 April to 23 May 2010 eruption at the Eyjafjallajökull volcano • Take into account and support the international processes, procedures and responsibilities, for example in the framework of the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) program Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

VAST: Project information 18.09.2013 Page 4 Volcanic Ash Strategic-initiative Team (VAST) Funded by: ESA (Strategic Initiative) Start: Mai 2012, Duration: 36 Months Partners • Norwegian Institute for Air Research ( NILU ), Norway • Finnish Meteorological Institute ( FMI ), Finland • National University in Galway ( NUIG ), Ireland • Zentralanstalt für Meteorolgie und Geodynamik ( ZAMG ), Austria • S&T Corp AS ( S&T ), Norway Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

VAST Objectives 18.09.2013 Page 5 • To identify user requirements for products needed in the case of volcanic eruptions • To investigate satellite retrievals for volcanic ash • To evaluate and improve ash dispersion models • To integrate Earth Observation Data and Models • To develop and introduce a volcanic ash prediction system • To create demonstration services for users and modellers • To provide training regarding VAST services and modelling Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull (Modelling) 18.09.2013 Page 6 There was strong similarity of model results between the VAAC London in charge of producing official products and other Centers publishing forecasts Official VAAC London product ZAMG prediction for Austrian authorities Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull (Modelling) 18.09.2013 Page 7 Compared with measurement data, models worked well in reproducing the vertical/horizontal shape of the ash cloud FLEXPART ash concentration versus FLEXPART predicted versus particle number (>5 µm) at Sonnblick measured vertical profile of aerosols Observatory over Leipzig (DLR) Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull (source term) 18.09.2013 Page 8 Regarding source term, it was shown that reasonable estimates by combining model results with measurement data are possible. • Stohl et al., 2011: 8 Tg particles in diameter range 2.8 – 28 μ m (Inverse modelling based on EO data) • ZAMG immediate estimate: 4 Tg particles in PM10 range for April 14-18 eruption (comparison of operational FLEXPART output with Jungfraujoch PM10 measurements) Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Lessons learned from Eyjafjallajökull (source term) 18.09.2013 Page 9 Inverse modeling schemes have been scientifically evaluated and shown to work with various input data (EO and in-situ). Operational value remains to be seen. A priori A posteriori (ECMWF) A posteriori (GFS) Stohl et al., 2011 Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Operational Implementation 18.09.2013 Page 10 As part of WP7000, operational demonstration services will be provided by ZAMG. The services will be available in the second and third year of the project Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Operational demonstration services 18.09.2013 Page 11 The following demonstration services are planned: • Operational EO data and product retrieval • Operational Modeling, including ensemble predictions • Operational ash source term service (inverse modeling) • Exercises A cooperation with the VAACs and National Weather Services is aimed at (ensemble predictions, source term) Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Summary 18.09.2013 Page 12 A new ESA volcanic ash analysis/forecasting project started in June 2012 The project aims at exploring new and improved methods of combining EO/In-situ measurement data and models for the determination of ash concentrations in the airspace A central part of the project is an operational test implementation running in the years 2013 and 2014 Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik