Development and evaluation of offline coupling of FV3-based GFS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Development and evaluation of offline coupling of FV3-based GFS - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Development and evaluation of offline coupling of FV3-based GFS with CMAQ at NOAA Jianping Huang 1,2 , Jeff McQueen 1 , Perry Shafran 1,2 , Ho-Chun Huang 1,2 , Jack Kain 1 , Youhua Tang 3,4 , Pius Lee 3 , Ivanka Stajner 5 , and Jose Tirado-Delgado

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SLIDE 1

Development and evaluation

  • f offline coupling of FV3-based GFS

with CMAQ at NOAA

Jianping Huang1,2, Jeff McQueen1, Perry Shafran1,2, Ho-Chun Huang1,2, Jack Kain1, Youhua Tang3,4, Pius Lee3, Ivanka Stajner5, and Jose Tirado-Delgado5,6

1: NOAA/NCEP; 2: IMSG; 3: NOAA/ARL; 4: UMD/CICS, 5: NOAA/NWS/STI; 6: ERG

  • Oct. 24, 2018
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SLIDE 2

Motivation

  • Within the framework of Next Generation Global

Prediction System (NGGPS), the predictions with Global Forecast System built on GFDL Finite Volume Cube-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core (FV3GFS) are available for driving regional air quality model

  • To evaluate impact of meteorological inputs (e.g., global

model) on air quality predictions

  • To be a benchmark of verifying the FV3CMAQ inline

coupling system which is under development

  • To be a candidate of operational system in case the online

system can not meet the operational time requirement.

2

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SLIDE 3

Unified Post-Proc PREMAQ

FV3GFS

(13 km)

CMAQ NGAC + GEOS/Chem BlueSky smoke

Bias Correction Post AirNow Obs G2O FVS

A flow-chart of the FV3GFS-CMAQ system

(new Changes as indicated by the red dashed boxes)

3

2014 NEI

PRDGEN

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SLIDE 4

Offline coupling of FV3GFS/CMAQ

Black: before Green: After 4

05 UTC on Aug. 15, 2018

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SLIDE 5

Model configurations

  • FV3GFS

– 13 km, 64 Hybrid levels

  • CMAQ

– v5.0.2 – CB05 gas-phase chemical mechanism, AERO6 aerosol module – 12 km, 33 sigma levels

  • Emissions

– Anthropogenic emission: NEI2014 with MOVE2014v2 – Biogenic emission: BEIS3 – Fire/Smoke emissions: Blue Sky wildfire smoke emission processing system

  • Verification

– Verification tool: METPlus + METview – Observational data: Hourly O3 and PM2.5 from EPA AirNow

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SLIDE 6

A summary of simulation cases

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Cases Met driver Emissions LBC for PM

Operational NMMB (12km) NEI2005/NEI2011 NGAC dust PARA1 NMMB(12km) NEI2014 NGAC dust PARA2 FV3GFS(13km) NEI2014 NGAC dust

Simulation Period: Aug.1–Sept.30, 2018

NMMB: Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B-grid NGAC: NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) GFS Aerosol Component

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SLIDE 7

Evaluations of predicted Surface O3 (Aug. 2018)

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EUS WUS Operational PARA1 PARA2 Observational

Diurnal Variation in 1h_Ave O3 Diurnal Variation in 1h_Ave O3

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SLIDE 8

Evaluations of predicted Surface O3 (Aug. 2018)

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WUS EUS Operational PARA1 PARA2

CSI of 1h_Ave O3 CSI of 1h_Ave O3

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SLIDE 9

Evaluations of predicted Surface O3 (Aug. 2018)

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WUS EUS Operational PARA1 PARA2

CSI of Daily 8h_Ave max O3 CSI of Daily 8h_Ave max O3

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SLIDE 10

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Evaluation of predicted PM2.5 (Aug. 2018)

PM2.5 under-predicted on the wildfire days over WUS and under-predicted rather than over- predicted over EUS

WUS EUS

Time series of 1h_Ave PM2.5 Time series of 1h_Ave PM2.5

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SLIDE 11

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Evaluation of predicted PM2.5 (Aug. 2018)

EUS WUS Operational PARA1 PARA2 Observational

Diurnal Variation of 1h_Ave PM2.5 Diurnal Variation of 1h_Ave PM2.5

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SLIDE 12

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Evaluation of predicted PM2.5 (Aug. 2018)

WUS EUS Operational PARA1 PARA2

CSI of 1h_Max PM2.5 CSI of 1h_Max PM2.5

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SLIDE 13

Case Studies (good)

PM2.5

FV3GFS-CMAQ NMMB-CMAQ

Overlay plots of daily 8h_Ave Max O3 Overlay plots of daily 1h_Ave Max PM2.5

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  • Aug. 28, 2018

O3

  • Aug. 18, 2018
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SLIDE 14

Case Studies (bad)

O3

NMMB-CMAQ FV3GFS-CMAQ

Overlay plots of daily 8h_Ave Max O3 Overlay plots of daily 1h_Ave Max PM2.5

14

  • Aug. 18, 2018
  • Aug. 26, 2018

PM2.5

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SLIDE 15

15

EUS WUS

Evaluation of predicted PM2.5 (Sept. 2018)

Operational PARA1 PARA2 Observational

Diurnal Variation of 1h_Ave PM2.5 Diurnal Variation of 1h_Ave PM2.5

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SLIDE 16

Summary

  • Ozone predictions

– Improve over WUS but slightly over-predicted over EUS – Overall performance of FV3GFS/CMAQ is competitive

  • PM2.5 predictions

– Under-predicted during daytime on wildfire active days (August, WUS) – PM2.5 predictions improved over EUS in Sept. and winter (needs to be confirmed)

  • Remaining issues and next steps

– Over-predicted PBL heights – Excluding cross-border transport of smoke from Canada – Too much mixing by FV3GFS TKE-based Eddy-Diffusivity Mass- Flux (EDMF) PBL scheme (?) – Stand Alone Regional FV3 or FV3-Nest (3-km)

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SLIDE 17

Backup

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Over-predicted PBL heights by FV3GFS PBLH_Bias (m) FCST HR 12 UTC Cycle