DESERTEC: Solar Power from the Desert Franz Trieb DLR Stuttgart - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DESERTEC: Solar Power from the Desert Franz Trieb DLR Stuttgart - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DESERTEC: Solar Power from the Desert Franz Trieb DLR Stuttgart September 2009 Folie 1 Trans-Mediterranean High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid: Interstate Highways for Renewable Electricity in EUMENA EUMENA: Europe Middle East

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DESERTEC: Solar Power from the Desert

Franz Trieb DLR Stuttgart September 2009

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Trans-Mediterranean High Voltage Direct Current Electricity Grid: Interstate Highways for Renewable Electricity in EUMENA

www.desertec.org

EUMENA: Europe Middle East North Africa

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Studies: Assessment of the renewable energy potential for the sustainable supply of electricity and water in 50 countries of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa taking into consideration the option of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP).

TRANS-CSP TRANS-CSP

MED-CSP MED-CSP AQUA-CSP AQUA-CSP

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50 Countries in EUMENA analysed

Scandinavia Western Europe Eastern Europe South-Eastern Europe Western Asia North Africa Arabian Peninsula

Europe (EU) Middle East & North Africa (MENA)

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Criteria for Sustainable Electricity Supply:

 Inexpensive low electricity cost no long term subsidies  Secure diversified and redundant supply power on demand based on inexhaustible resources available or at least visible technology capacities expandable in time  Compatible low pollution climate protection low risks for health and environment fair access

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Portfolio of Energy Sources for Electricity:

 Coal, Lignite  Oil, Gas  Nuclear Fission, Fusion  Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)  Geothermal Power (Hot Dry Rock)  Biomass  Hydropower  Wind Power  Photovoltaic  Wave / Tidal ideally stored primary energy fluctuating primary energy storable primary energy

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Renewable Energy Technologies

Hydropower Tides Waves Wind Power Photovoltaic Geothermal Concentrating Solar Power Biomass

http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/inhalt/36983/35338/

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Concentrating Solar Power

Parabolic Trough (PSA) Solar Tower (SNL) Linear Fresnel (MAN/SPG) Dish-Stirling (SBP)

  • ver 1000 °C

Gas Turbines, Engines Up to 550 °C Steam Turbines

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  • spinning reserve
  • firm capacity,

power on demand

  • combined generation of

process heat for cooling, industry, desalination, etc. Fuel Thermal Power Cycle (e.g. Steam Turbine) Process Heat Electricity Principle of a Conventional Thermal Power Plant Concentrating Solar Collector Field (Mirrors) Solar Heat Thermal Energy Storage

  • concentrated, easily

storable solar thermal energy as fuel saver Principle of a Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plant

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www.solarmillennium.de

ANDASOL 1, Guadix, Spain (50 MW, 7 h Storage, 2009)

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High Voltage Direct Current Transmission

Voltage: ± 800.000 Volt Power: 6400 Megawatt Length: 2070 km Source: Hydropower

http://www.abb.com http://www.siemens.com

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Biomass (0-1) Wind Energy (5-50) Geothermal (0-1) Hydropower (0-50) Solar (10-250) Max Min Electricity Yield in GWh/km²/y

Renewable Electricity Potential in Europe, Middle East & North Africa

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2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050

Electricity in TWh/y

Solar Geothermal Hydro Wind Biomass Wave/Tide Desalination MENA Europe

Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA

> 630000

How Does a Sustainable Mix Look Like?

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Installed Capacity vs. Peak Load in EUMENA

400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Installed Capacity [GW] 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 Photovoltaic

Wind Power Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Tidal/Wave CSP Oil & Gas Coal Nuclear Firm Capacity Peak Load

 100 % availability plus 25 % reserve capacity

5000 h/a 2000 h/a

Import/Export Desalination

www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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Firm Power Capacity based on Renewables and Fuel (no fossil or nuclear base load supply)

Hourly Model Germany 2050 (Brischke 2005)

10 20 30 40 50 60 25.6. 26.6. 27.6. 28.6. 29.6. 30.6. 1.7.

Power Supply [GW]

Combined Heat & Power Domestic Renewables Solar Import Import & Pump Storage Balancing Power (fossil) Surplus

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Availability and Redundancy

  • Power on Demand by a Mix of Fluctuating and Balancing Sources
  • Increased Number of Non-Correlated Energy Sources
  • Increased Number and Reduced Average Size of Power Plants
  • Increased Number of Supply Regions
  • Additional HVDC Grid Infrastructure for Long-Distance Transfer
  • Domestic Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix
  • Non-depletable Sources Dominate the Electricity Mix
  • Strategy is Based on Proven Technologies
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Carbon emissions of EUMENA power sector are reduced to 38 % until 2050 in spite of a quickly growing demand

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year CO2-Emissions in Mt/y Avoided Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Wave / Tidal Biomass CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear

1% of Land Area Required

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Environmental Security

  • Reduced Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Power Generation
  • Reduced Risks of Nuclear Radiation and Proliferation
  • Reduced Local Pollution by Combustion Products
  • Optimal Land Use (1%) through Diversified Mix
  • Technology based on Recyclable Materials
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Equipment Cost Learning Curves

http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/pdf/weto_final_report.pdf

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Coal Price Nuclear Decommissioning Cost National Audit Office UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority UK 11 GW Capacity 61 £ Billion of 2007 = 6000 €/kW

http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/0708/the_nuclear_decommissioning_au.aspx

www.oilnergy.com

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Electricity Cost (Example Spain) 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Electricity Cost [c/kWh] TRANS-CSP Mix BaU Mix 2000

€2000 , Fuel Cost: IEA / WEO 2005, after 2020 CCS

Investment Phase Profit Phase

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Economic Security

  • Economic Risk Hedged by Increased Portfolio
  • Intrinsic Trend to Lower Cost and Lower Price Volatility
  • Energy Cost Stabilization through Investment in New Sources
  • Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Environmental Constraints
  • Prevention of Cost Escalation due to Scarcity
  • Reduction of Energy Subsidies in Europe and MENA
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Import Dependency of European Power Generation

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Energy Import for Power Generation

Import Dependency in TRANS-CSP Scenario Current Trend of Import Dependency

www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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(artist view created with Google Earth)

Energy, Water, Food, Labor and Income for further 300 Million People in MENA ?

Solar Power & Desalination Plants

HVDC Line Conventional AC Grid

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Political Security

  • Conflict Prevention between EU and MENA Reducing Pressure on Fuels
  • Conflict Prevention in MENA Solving Energy and Water Scarcity
  • Conflict Prevention in Europe Increasing Energy Diversity
  • Reduction of European Energy Import Dependency
  • Addition of Energy Corridors for European Supply
  • Initiating EU-MENA (Energy) Partnership
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Challenges

  • Requires New Structures and New Thinking (Change of Paradigm)
  • Requires Long-Term Financing Schemes due to Long-Term Investments
  • Based on International Cooperation and Interdependencies
  • Higher Complexity than Using Ideally Stored Fossil Energy Sources
  • More Stakeholders Involved due to Decentralized Generation
  • Cultural and Political Differences in EUMENA
  • Lobby Groups Acting Against Each Other
  • Speed of Environmental Change and Conflict Potentials
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Thank You!

www.dlr.de/desertec

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Some Background Information

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Year 2020 2030 2040 2050 Lines x Capacity GW 4 x 2.5 16 x 2.5 28 x 2.5 40 x 2.5 Transfer TWh/y 60 230 470 700 Capacity Factor 0.60 0.67 0.75 0.80 Turnover Billion €/y 3.8 12.5 24 35 Land Area CSP km x km HVDC 15 x 15

3100 x 0.1

30 x 30

3600 x 0.4

40 x 40

3600 x 0.7

50 x 50

3600 x 1.0

  • Cum. Investment CSP

Billion € HVDC 42 5 134 16 245 31 350 45

  • Elec. Cost CSP

€/kWh HVDC 0.050 0.014 0.045 0.010 0.040 0.010 0.040 0.010

Total EU-MENA HVDC Interconnection 2020 – 2050 *

* All countries analysed in TRANS-CSP

www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 Direct Normal Irradiation [kWh/m²/y] Annual Full Load Hours [h/y] SM4 SM3 SM2 SM1 ANDASOL 1 Nevada Solar 1

Effect of Thermal Energy Storage on the Availability of CSP

www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources

Solar Field 1 Storage 1 Power Block Solar Field 2 Solar Field 3 Solar Field 4 Storage 2 Storage 3 SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4 Electricity Solar Field 1 Storage 1 Power Block Solar Field 2 Solar Field 3 Solar Field 4 Storage 2 Storage 3 SM1 SM2 SM3 SM4 Electricity

SM = Solar Multiple 1 Solar Field = 6000 m²/MW 1 Storage = 6 hours (full load)

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Electricity Supply in Europe (TRANS-CSP Scenario)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

Electricity [TWh/y]

Import Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil Gas Coal Nuclear www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp

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Electricity Supply in the Middle East & North Africa

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

Electricity [TWh/y]

Desalination Export Solar Photovoltaics Wind Geothermal Hydropower Biomass Wave / Tidal CSP Plants Oil / Gas Coal Nuclear

www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp

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AQUA-CSP Scenario for Middle East & North Africa

100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Water Consumption [Bm³/y]

Natural Water Used Wastewater reused Fossil Fuel Desalination Groundwater Over-Use CSP Desalination Efficiency Gains

www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp

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Solar Electricity Generating System - SEGS, California, USA (354 MW, online since 1985)

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Global Potential for Concentrating Solar Power

Global Technical Potential: 3,000,000 TWh/y Global Electricity Consumption: 18,000 TWh/y

www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources

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DNI Class Africa Australia Central Asia, Caucase Canada China Central South America India Japan 2000-2099 102,254 6,631 14,280 8,332 31,572 7,893 2100-2199 138,194 18,587 300 18,276 20,585 1,140 2200-2299 139,834 36,762 372 43,027 24,082 550 2300-2399 141,066 87,751 177 28,415 20,711 774 2400-2499 209,571 148,001 64 11,197 6,417 426 2500-2599 203,963 207,753 11,330 3,678 13 2600-2699 178,480 142,490 2,180 5,120 119 2700-2800+ 346,009 49,625 3,079 11,827 15 Total 1,459,370 697,600 15,193 125,835 123,992 10,928 DNI Class Middle East Mexico Other Developing Asia Other East Europe Russia South Korea EU27+ USA 2000-2099 3,432 1,606 4,491 6 866 14,096 2100-2199 12,443 3,378 5,174 13 497 17,114 2200-2299 39,191 3,650 10,947 2 660 21,748 2300-2399 60,188 5,807 30,776 162 16,402 2400-2499 71,324 15,689 19,355 90 23,903 2500-2599 34,954 7,134 4,429 69 8,116 2600-2699 32,263 1,534 253 31 2,326 2700-2800+ 36,843 1,878 136 34 Total 290,639 40,675 75,561 21 2,409 103,704

CSP potentials in TWh/y available in the REACCESS world regions for different DNI Classes

www.dlr.de/tt/csp-resources