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Land Land-Us Use e Sce Scenarios narios Impact Impact on on Eco Economic nomic Ev Evalua aluation tion of of Pr Projects ojects If youre going to skate on thin ice, you may as well dance. Cr Craig aig Cas Casper per Der
Land Land-Us Use e Sce Scenarios narios Impact Impact on
Eco Economic nomic Ev Evalua aluation tion of
Projects
October 2016
If you’re going to skate on thin ice, you may as well dance.
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#1
POPULATION COMPARISON –
https://fhwaapps.fhwa.dot.gov/planworks
Economic Goal: Improve economic vitality and freight movement by improving the transportation system.
Technical Advisory Committee
City of Colorado Springs Mountain Metro Transit City of Fountain City of Manitou Springs City of Woodland Park Colorado DOT HQ Colorado DOT Region 2 El Paso County Bicycle Colorado Teller County Town of Green Mountain Falls Town of Monument Town of Palmer Lake Colorado Air Quality Control Colorado Springs Utilities FHWA FTA Ft Carson Peterson Air Force Base Mountain Metro Transit US Air Force Academy
Community Advisory Committee
City of Colorado Springs City of Fountain City of Manitou Springs City of Woodland Park Regional Business Alliance Council of Neighborhood Organizations El Paso County League of Women Voters Teller County Town of Green Mountain Falls Town of Monument Town of Palmer Lake 6 Citizens-At-Large
Other Groups Invited
Convention & Visitors Bureau Housing & Building Association of CS Downtown Partnership of CS City of CS Economic Development Dept Colorado Springs Airport Manitou Springs EDC / BID City of Fountain Economic Develop Dept Greater Woodland Park Chamber City of Cripple Creek CS Black Chamber Hispanic Chamber of CS Southern Colorado Women’s Chamber Colorado Springs Utilities Pikes Peak Assoc. Of Realtors Tri-Lakes Chamber Pikes Peak Community College Army Corps of Engineers US EPA US Fish and Wildlife Service Colorado Dept of Wildlife Colorado Dept of Health El Paso County Parks Colorado Springs Parks Council of Neighbors and Organizations
Involve every group that impacts or is impacted by transportation investment decisions.
Regional Business Alliance Convention & Visitors Bureau Housing & Building Association of CS Downtown Partnership of CS City of CS Economic Development Dept Colorado Springs Airport Manitou Springs EDC / BID City of Fountain Economic Develop Dept Greater Woodland Park Chamber CS Black Chamber Hispanic Chamber of CS Southern Colorado Women’s Chamber Tri-Lakes Chamber
FACILITATED COLLABORATION
Create land use scenarios Use indicators to measure impacts (economic, social, environmental) Analyze using models Experiment interactively and see changes Score projects based
Adopt official plan
CommunityViz Vista N-Spect TELUM VISUM
HERS-ST TREDIS MOVES TNM
Infill/ Cluster
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOPS
Baseline Current Trend Accelerated Trend 2010 2040 Scenario planning:
analysis
desired outcomes
quantify effects
The only thing we know for sure about our land-use forecasts is that they are wrong.
PLAN ASSUMPTIONS
PLAN ASSUMPTIONS
PLAN ASSUMPTIONS
2040 SCENARIOS –”ADVISORS” WITH A VESTED INTEREST
2040 SCENARIOS –”ADVISORS” WITH A VESTED INTEREST
2040 SCENARIOS –”ADVISORS” WITH A VESTED INTEREST
2040 SCENARIOS –”ADVISORS” WITH A VESTED INTEREST
20 2012 12 Ex Existing isting
20 2040 40 For
ecast ast
2040 SCENARIOS – MORE INFORMED ADVISORS
WITH A VESTED INTEREST
2040 SCENARIOS – MORE INFORMED ADVISORS
WITH A VESTED INTEREST
CONSERVATION 2035 – RESIDENTIAL DENSITY
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS = PRESENT VALUE OF DIRECT / INDIRECT
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Accelerated Trend Scenario
Benefits over Maintenance Only
Vehicle Operating Cost Savings +136.6 Million Dollars Time & Reliability Cost Savings +91.8 Million Dollars Value of Personal Time Savings +1,215.8 Million Dollars Shipper/Logistics Cost Savings +9.0 Million Dollars Total Economic Benefits +1,459.8 Million Dollars
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
project.
1,680,000,000 2,180,000,000 2,680,000,000 3,180,000,000 3,680,000,000 4,180,000,000 4,680,000,000 5,180,000,000
INFILL ADOPTED ACCELERATED
Total Value of Projects Analyzed
KEY FINDINGS
Socioeconomic and land use scenarios help identify:
This allowed the MPO to consider the risk inherent in socio-economic assumptions in projecting project benefits, as well as considering the degree to which anticipated socio-economic future conditions may affect project prioritization and selection. With a total of $1.8 Billion in project construction costs the forecast direct economic benefit was:
KEY FINDINGS – ACCELERATED TREND
ID Project Benefit Score
72 I-25 HOV Lanes $ 1,199,484,943 9.000 27 Briargate Pkwy/ Stapleton Rd Connection $ 352,721,855 8.000 172 Transit-current operations $ 280,574,203 7.000 114 Powers Blvd. Intersection Improvements from North Carefree to Constitution $ 263,201,499 6.567 14 Academy over Sand Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 108,014,273 3.465 34 Cimarron over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 105,286,255 3.377 13 Academy over Platte Ave Deck Replacement $ 88,880,223 2.851 198 Union Blvd over Cottonwood Creek Bridge Replacement $ 86,702,486 2.781 40 Dublin Road Widening:Peterson Road to Marksheffel Road $ 74,887,076 2.402 62 Garrett Road $ 72,196,536 2.316 5 8th St. over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 70,512,226 2.262 50 Fillmore Street over Monument Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 60,577,009 1.943 51 Fillmore Street over UPRR Bridge Rehabilitation $ 60,400,373 1.937 53 Fontanero over Camp Creek Bridge Replacement $ 56,015,998 1.797 160 Transit BRT Citadel to Downtown $ 53,995,186 1.732 61 Garden of the Gods over S Douglas Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 53,631,295 1.720 115 Powers Blvd: SH 83 to I-25 (at Northgate Rd) $ 51,725,375 1.659 195 Transit IT Improvements $ 47,783,124 1.533
KEY FINDINGS – EXISTING TREND ADOPTED SCENARIO
ID Project Benefit Score
72 I-25 HOV Lanes $ 1,235,991,867 9.000 114 Powers Blvd. Intersection Improvements from North Carefree to Constitution $ 792,548,999 8.000 172 Transit-current operations $ 308,997,967 7.000 27 Briargate Pkwy/ Stapleton Rd Connection $ 163,140,134 4.752 14 Academy over Sand Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 108,014,273 3.146 34 Cimarron over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 105,286,255 3.067 13 Academy over Platte Ave Deck Replacement $ 88,880,223 2.589 198 Union Blvd over Cottonwood Creek Bridge Replacement $ 86,702,486 2.525 115 Powers Blvd: SH 83 to I-25 (at Northgate Rd) $ 74,172,144 2.160 5 8th St. over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 70,512,226 2.054 50 Fillmore Street over Monument Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 60,577,009 1.764 51 Fillmore Street over UPRR Bridge Rehabilitation $ 60,400,373 1.759 160 Transit BRT Citadel to Downtown $ 60,388,829 1.759 161 Transit-Nevada Streetcar $ 60,388,829 1.759 53 Fontanero over Camp Creek Bridge Replacement $ 56,015,998 1.632 61 Garden of the Gods over S Douglas Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 53,631,295 1.562 159 Transit-Colorado Avenue BRT $ 53,335,008 1.553 205 US 24 East Widening $ 43,497,430 1.267
KEY FINDINGS – INFILL EMPHASIS
ID Project Benefit Score
72 I-25 HOV Lanes $ 1,806,181,664 9.000 172 Transit-current operations $ 451,545,416 8.000 114 Powers Blvd. Intersection Improvements from North Carefree to Constitution $ 290,424,815 7.000 115 Powers Blvd: SH 83 to I-25 (at Northgate Rd) $ 125,422,128 3.887 14 Academy over Sand Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 115,919,610 3.592 34 Cimarron over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 112,304,776 3.480 160 Transit BRT Citadel to Downtown $ 88,247,503 2.735 161 Transit-Nevada Streetcar $ 88,247,503 2.735 13 Academy over Platte Ave Deck Replacement $ 87,861,673 2.723 5 8th St. over Fountain Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 83,546,685 2.589 198 Union Blvd over Cottonwood Creek Bridge Replacement $ 83,518,984 2.588 159 Transit-Colorado Avenue BRT $ 77,939,601 2.415 51 Fillmore Street over UPRR Bridge Rehabilitation $ 70,200,236 2.175 61 Garden of the Gods over S Douglas Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 69,876,932 2.165 50 Fillmore Street over Monument Creek Bridge Rehabilitation $ 69,294,115 2.147 53 Fontanero over Camp Creek Bridge Replacement $ 59,683,205 1.850 157 Transit- Downtown Streetcar $ 53,022,659 1.643 163 Transit – Fixed Route Expansion $ 52,874,344 1.639
ID Project Benefit Score
72 I-25 HOV Lanes Accelerated $ 1,199,484,943 9.000 72 I-25 HOV Lanes Adopted $ 1,235,991,867 9.000 72 I-25 HOV Lanes Infill $ 1,806,181,664 9.000 27 Briargate Pkwy/ Stapleton Rd Connection Accelerated ($26m) $ 352,721,855 8.000 114 Powers Blvd. Intersection Improvements from North Carefree to Constitution Adopted $ 792,548,999 8.000 172 Transit-current operations Infill $ 451,545,416 8.000 172 Transit-current operations Accelerated $ 280,574,203 7.000 172 Transit-current operations Adopted $ 308,997,967 7.000 114 Powers Blvd. Intersection Improvements from North Carefree to Constitution Infill $ 290,424,815 7.000
114 Powers Blvd. Intersection Improvements from North Carefree to Constitution Accelerated $ 263,201,499 6.567
27 Briargate Pkwy/ Stapleton Rd Connection Adopted $ 163,140,134 4.752 115 Powers Blvd: SH 83 to I-25 (at Northgate Rd) Infill $ 125,422,128 3.887
Accelerated value of top 4 $ 2,095,982,500
Adopted value of top 4 $ 2,500,678,967 Infill value of top 4 $ 2,673,574,023
KEY FINDINGS – TOP TRANSIT PROJECTS
ID Project Benefit Score
172 Transit-current operations Accelerated $ 280,574,203 7.000 160 Transit BRT Citadel to Downtown Accelerated* $ 53,995,186 1.732 195 Transit IT Improvements Accelerated $ 47,783,124 1.533
$382,352,513 172 Transit-current operations Adopted $ 308,997,967 7.000 160 Transit BRT Citadel to Downtown Adopted* $ 60,388,829 1.759 161 Transit-Nevada Streetcar Adopted $ 60,388,829 1.759 159 Transit-Colorado Avenue BRT Adopted $ 53,335,008 1.553 $483,110,633 172 Transit-current operations Infill $ 451,545,416 8.000 160 Transit BRT Citadel to Downtown Infill* $ 88,247,503 2.735 161 Transit-Nevada Streetcar Infill $ 88,247,503 2.735 159 Transit-Colorado Avenue BRT Infill $ 77,939,601 2.415 157 Transit- Downtown Streetcar Infill $ 53,022,659 1.643 163 Transit – Fixed Route Expansion Infill $ 52,874,344 1.639 $811,877,026
KEY FINDINGS COORDINATION OF LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION MATTERS
$- $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 $400,000,000
Briargate Road Extension
$0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000 $350,000,000 $400,000,000 $450,000,000 $500,000,000
Current Transit Operations
RISK ASSESSMENT
similar expected rates of
riskier (Area X).
expected return, but greater downside risk (Area Y).
expected return, but greater upside possibilities (Area Z).
APPROVALS
44¢ 98¢ 57¢ $1.26
WHY CITIZENS DON’T WANT A GAS TAX INCREASE.