DEMONSTRATIONS: AN UPDATE NOVEMBER 12, 2013 PRESENTATION D E N N I - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

EQUIVALENT OR BETTER DISPERSION DEMONSTRATIONS: AN UPDATE NOVEMBER 12, 2013 PRESENTATION D E N N I S B E C K E R , M P C A / E A O D / R E A M

EQUIVALENT OR BETTER DISPERSION  What is is Equiv uivalen alent t or r Bett etter er Disp ispersion ersion (E (EBD)? )?  Why do I ne need to do this?  How to co cond nduct uct the EBD Demo monstration nstration  Adm dminis inistra trativ tive e Proce rocess ss for r EBD mo model eling ng 2

EQUIVALENT OR BETTER DISPERSION  What is is Equiv uivalen alent t or r Bett etter er Disp ispersion ersion (E (EBD)? )? Hint: : same e or lower r disper persi sion on imp mpacts cts  Why do I ne need to do this? ? Hint: t: permit mit requi uire reme ment nt  How to co cond nduct uct the EBD Demo monstration nstration Hint: t: strong ongly ly resem embles bles conce cepts ts of PSD increme rement nt mode deling ing  Adm dminis inistrativ trative e Proc Process ss for r EBD mo model eling ing Hint: t: working ng practice ce memo emo and forms rms (almost most done ne) 3

EQUIVALENT OR BETTER DISPERSION  Wh What at ar are ou e our Goa oals ls:  Goa oal l #1: : promo omote e wise se growth wth while e improving ving air qualit ality  Goa oal l #2: : avoid id fut uture ure no non-attainme attainment nt if possible ble  Goa oal l #3: : gre reat ater er re regulat ulator ory y ce certainty nty with less work  Goa oal l #4: : gre reat ater er bu business iness ce certainty ainty with less work  Goa oal l #5: : clear “bright line” test keep it simple le 4

EQUIVALENT OR BETTER DISPERSION  Wh What at ar are ou e our Int nten entio tions ns:  Intended for improvements, or…  Inf nfinit initesim esimal al deg egra radations. dations.  Not Not in intended ended to ful ully ly re repla lace ce re re-mode modeling ling! 5

EQUIVALENT OR BETTER DISPERSION  Wh What at ar are ou e our Def efin init itio ions ns:  “Equivalent” me means ns “ same me impact”  Mathemat ematical ically: ly: net net ch chan ange ge = zer ero  Bright ght Line Test: : 0.00 00 ug ug/m3 m3  Two deci cimal mal pla laces ces (t (tent ntativ ative) e) 6

EQUIVALENT OR BETTER DISPERSION  Wh What at ar are ou e our Def efin init itio ions ns:  “Better” me means ns “ lo lower er impacts”  Mathemat ematical ically: ly: net net ch chan ange ge < zer ero  Bright ght Line Test: : ne negativ gative e ch chang nges es  AERMOD RMOD No Notes: es: AERM RMOD OD does es not not cu curr rrently ently displa splay y ne negativ tive e ch chang nges es 7

HOW TO CONDUCT THE ANALYSIS - OVERVIEW Overvie view  Think nk PSD-increme rement nt modeling ng concept pts s (witho thout ut baseli line ne dates) es)  Think negative emission rates for “before case”  Think positive emission rates for “after case” Set et-up up for the Model del Ideally ly – same met eteorolo logical l data as used d in latest st full l refine ned d modeli ling ng   Ideally - same receptor or grid  Ideally – same building dings s (unless ss those se are part t of the propose posed d change)  Best t of all - no background ound or nearby source ces s are required! quired! 8

HOW TO CONDUCT THE ANALYSIS - EXAMPLE Facility lity ABC has three ee stacks cks undergoing rgoing changes es:  ABCSV001  ABCSV002  ABCSV003 9

HOW TO CONDUCT THE ANALYSIS - EXAMPLE ABCSV00 001_ 1_OL OLD D with th old (negati tive) emiss ssion on rate  Old Inputs ABCSV002_ 002_OL OLD D with th old (negati tive) emiss ssion on rate  Old Inputs ABCSV003_ 003_OL OLD D with th old (negati tive) emiss ssion on rate  Old Inputs ABCSV00 001_ 1_NEW NEW with th new (posi sitive) ) emiss ssion n rate  New Inputs ABCSV002_ 002_NEW NEW with th new (posi sitive) ) emiss ssion n rate  New Inputs ABCSV003_ 003_NEW NEW with th new (posi sitive) ) emiss ssion n rate  New Inputs 10

HOW TO CONDUCT THE ANALYSIS - EXAMPLE ABCSV0 V001_ 1_OLD LD with old (negati ative) e) emissi sion on rate  Old Inputs: LOCATION, SRCPARAM, and if applicable:  BUILDHGT, BUILDWID, BUILDLEN, XBADJ, YBADJ  EMISFACT (or HOUREMIS) Note: Use AERMOD  NOX TIER 1 only SRCGR GROU OUP P ALL and ABCSV0 V002 02_OL OLD D with old (nega gative) e) emission on rate  Old Inputs applicable regulatory ABCSV0 V003 03_OL OLD D with old (negativ ive) e) emission ion rate metrics (e.g., NAAQS)  Old Inputs ABCSV0 V001_ 1_NEW W with new (pos positive) e) emission on rate  New Inputs ABCSV0 V002 02_NEW W with new (posi ositive) e) emission n rate  New Inputs ABCSV0 V003 03_NEW W with new (posi ositive) e) emission n rate  New Inputs 11

HOW TO CONDUCT THE ANALYSIS - EXAMPLE Possi sible le Outco come me1: : SRCGR GROUP UP AL ALL L (net t change nge) ) = 0.00 0 ug ug/m3 m3  Prepare submittal (forms, files);  Su Submit mit to: : airmod odeli eling. ng.pca@ ca@sta tate.mn e.mn.u .us  Also submit with permit application??? Possible ssible Outcome2: come2: SRCGR GROUP UP ALL L (net t change ge) ) > 0.00 0 ug ug/m3 m3  Prepare submittal (forms, files); expect delays!!!  Su Submit mit to: : airmod odeli eling. ng.pca@ ca@sta tate.mn e.mn.u .us  Possible options:  Try again w/more improvements, or  Conduct full NAAQS re-modeling, or  MPCA management will decide next steps 12

CUMULATIVE ANALYSES SINCE LAST NAAQS RUN EBD D analyses yses are cumulativ lative (goo ood d thing ng)  EBD1 D1 has a l large rge decrease ease (-5 5 ug ug/m3)* /m3)*  CUMULA ULATIVE TIVE NET T CHANG NGE E (-5 5 ug ug/m3)* m3)*  EBD2 D2 has a s small all increase rease (+1 ug ug/m3) m3)  CUMULA ULATIVE TIVE NET T CHANG NGE E (-4 4 ug ug/m3)* m3)*  EBD3 D3 has a s small all increase rease (+2 ug ug/m3) m3)  CUMULA ULATIVE TIVE NET T CHANG NGE E (-2 2 ug ug/m3 m3)* )*  *AERM RMOD OD displa plays ys negati ative impacts acts as zero o 13

Figure e of Previous ous Slide 3 2 2 1 1 0 Change -1 Cumulative -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -6 EBD1 EBD2 EBD3 14

CUMULATIVE ANALYSES SINCE LAST NAAQS RUN EBD an anal alyses ses ar are e cu cumul mulativ ative (g (good d thin ing)  EBD1 has a l EB large e decre rease se (-5 5 ug ug/m3) 3) CUMULA ULATIVE TIVE NET ET CHAN ANGE GE (-5 5 ug ug/m3 m3)  EB EBD2 has s a l larger er increa rease e (+6 ug ug/m3) m3)  CUMULA ULATIVE TIVE NET ET CHAN ANGE GE (+1 1 ug ug/m3 m3)  Ful ull NAA AAQS QS remo modeli deling ng is now w requi uired red.  15

Figure e of Previous ous Slide 8 6 6 4 2 Change 1 Cumulative 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 -6 EBD1 EBD2 16

ADMINISTRATIVE PROCESS  Ne Need ed a a Pr Proposal posal (N (New w form m on th the e Mo Modeling deling Websit bsite e Soon) on)  Final al Repor port t Form rm Soon on  Subm bmit t Fina nal l Repor port t Approval al wi with th Permit mit Appl plication ication 17

CONCLUSIONS Benef efit its  Refined ined analy lysis sis that prese sents ts a defen endab dable le demon emonstr tratio ion  It is “model version” neutral Most st of the inputs s alread ady exist ist   Resem sembles les well ll-known PSD mode deling ing conce oncepts ts Risks sks/Do /Downside sides May take e more time e in com ompar arison ison to former mer scree eening approa oaches hes (e.g., ., SCRE REEN3 EN3)   May find d that a refined ined re-mo modelin eling is still l req equir ired d as a res esult lt of the EBD analy lysis sis Final al Not ote  This approac ach is not ot yet et in the Guidan dance e – but will ll be!  A “Working Memorandum” on this topic will be posted to our website in the interim 18

BEST CONTACTS – DICK, JIM & MELISSA When n to Model l (MPCA A Permit Section on)  Dick Cordes How to Model l (MPCA PCA Modeli ling ng Un Unit)  Jim Sulli livan  Meliss ssa a Sheffer er  Ruth Roberson son (TEMPO36 MPO360 0 Transf nsfor orma mation on Project ct until l mid-2015) 5) Denni nis Becker er (prob obable le ret etireme ment nt in summer mer or fall 2014) 4)  Forms (MPC PCA A Modeli ling ng Un Unit)  Meliss ssa a Sheffer er 19

QUESTIONS? Ask now or duri ring ng the break. 20