DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE Reserves: Our use of the term - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE Reserves: Our use of the term - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE Reserves: Our use of the term reserves in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term resources in this presentation includes
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE
2
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2P + 2C definitions. Operating costs are defined as underlying operating expenses, which are operating expenses less identified items. Organic free cash flow is defined as free cash flow excluding inorganic capital investment and divestment proceeds. Clean CCS ROACE (Return on Average Capital Employed) is defined as defined as the sum of CCS earnings attributable to shareholders excluding identified items for the current and previous three quarters, as a percentage of the average capital employed for the same period. Capital employed consists of total equity, current debt and non-current debt. Capital investment comprises capital expenditure, exploration expense excluding well write-offs, new investments in joint ventures and associates, new finance leases and investments in Integrated Gas, Upstream and Downstream securities, all of which on an accruals basis. In 2016, the capital investment was impacted by the acquisition of BG Group plc. which are included in “Change in non-controlling interest” within “Cash flow from financing (CFFF) activities”. Divestments comprises proceeds from sale of property, plant and equipment and businesses, joint ventures and associates, and other Integrated Gas, Upstream and Downstream investments, reported in “Cash flow from investing activities (CFFI)”, adjusted onto an accruals basis and for any share consideration received or contingent consideration recognised upon divestment, as well as proceeds from the sale of interests in entities while retaining control (for example, proceeds from sale of interest in Shell Midstream Partners, L.P.), This presentation contains the following forward-looking Non-GAAP measures: Organic Free Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow, Capital Investment, CCS Earnings, CCS Earnings less identified items, Gearing, Underlying Operating Expenses, ROACE, Capital Employed and Divestments. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of the above forward-looking Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile the above Non-GAAP measure to the most comparable GAAP financial measure is dependent on future events some which are outside the control of the company, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measures consistent with the company accounting policies and the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are calculated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Royal Dutch Shell plc’s financial statements. The financial measures provided by strategic themes represent a notional allocation of ROACE, capital employed, capital investment, free cash flow, organic free cash flow and underlying operating expenses of Shell’s strategic themes. Shell’s segment reporting under IFRS 8 remains Integrated Gas, Upstream, Downstream and Corporate. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2016 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, February 26, 2018. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. This presentation may contain references to Shell’s website. These references are for the readers’ convenience only. Shell is not incorporating by reference any information posted on www.shell.com. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
Queensland Curtis LNG Facility, Australia 3
The energy challenge Growing economies need more and cleaner energy Policy actions for clean energy support gas and LNG Gas plays growing role to meet energy challenge Gas supports renewables OECD leading the move to gas and renewables for power generation Strong China gas demand driven by growth outside power LNG is the fastest growing gas supply source LNG provides new form of energy security Unprecedented LNG capacity expansion 45% complete Global LNG market continues to defy expectations 29 mt increase in LNG imports in 2017 LNG accommodates China growth and seasonal demand Spot prices continue to reflect strong demand for LNG Physical and financial liquidity increases as market evolves Fast, flexible FSRUs continue to increase LNG imports Demand for LNG in transport grows globally Lack of supply investment risks future global LNG market growth LNG buyers and their needs are changing LNG buyers signing shorter and smaller contracts Liquefaction investment needed to meet demand growth
01 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG 02 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017 03 SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH
CONTENTS
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
4
01
Oman LNG facility
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
5
Growing Population
According to the World Bank, global population is expected to increase from around 7 billion today to
- ver 9 billion by 2050,
with 66% living in cities.
Rising Demand
Over a billion people continue to live without electricity while another billion struggle with unreliable supplies of electricity. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) New Policies Scenario, global energy demand is expected to grow by 30% between 2015 and 2040.
Ongoing Supply
As per IEA, it is expected that renewable energy could increase significantly by
- 2040. However, we will still
need large amounts of oil and gas to provide the full range of energy products that the world needs.
Mitigating Climate Change
The world currently emits 32 billion tonnes of energy-related CO2 each
- year. To limit the rise in
global temperature to 2°C, the IEA has calculated that energy related CO2 emissions need to fall to around 18 billion tonnes a year by 2040.
Improving Air Quality
The World Health Organization (WHO) has found that outdoor air pollution in both cities and rural areas is estimated to cause some 3 million premature deaths a year worldwide.
THE ENERGY CHALLENGE
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
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Bangladesh China India Myanmar Pakistan South Korea Thailand Vietnam 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Extreme High Medium Asia air quality index
Coal share in electricity mix (2017) Change in energy demand (2017-2035), KTOE
Energy gy demand d growth th vs coal share re Air quality ty index 2017
GROWING ECONOMIES NEED MORE AND CLEANER ENERGY
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and Verisk Maplecroft Q4 2017 data
Population size
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
POLICY ACTIONS FOR CLEAN ENERGY SUPPORT GAS AND LNG
GLOBAL
G20 endorses the role of natural gas in energy transition IEA credits levelling of global CO2 emissions to coal displacement Increasing reasing recogniti gnition
- n of
environ ronme mental ntal benefits fits
REGIONAL
More than 10 countries announce coal phase-out ambitions - 25% of coal power capacity in EU EU confirms reforms to strengthen EU Emissions Trading Scheme EU polic icies es supp pporting ting coal l phase ase out
NATIONAL
Policies ies favour
- ur gas
s and renewab wables les
LOCAL
Berlin closes local coal-fired power plants to improve air quality Beijing meets ambitious 2017 air quality targets, supported by coal to gas switching Policymakers makers targeting rgeting air r quali uality ty
7
China reforms gas market to increase competitiveness of delivered gas South Korea’s 8th Basic Plan for Energy prioritises renewables and gas, while not sanctioning new nuclear and coal
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
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Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data
4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000
46% 18% 14% 10% 7% 6%
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
45% 27% 20% 7%
BCM Globa bal l energy rgy demand mand growth wth by fuel BCM Globa bal l gas s demand mand growth th by sector tor Globa bal l gas s demand mand growth th by regio gion Energy demand: 1% CAGR Gas demand: 2% CAGR
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
38% 33% 14% 2% 13%
BCM
CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
GAS PLAYS GROWING ROLE TO MEET ENERGY CHALLENGE
Asia gas demand: 3% CAGR
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Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017, IHS Markit and CAISO data
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 4 8 12 16 20 24 Mar-13 Mar-17
Flexibl ble e gas generat ration
- n compl
pleme ments ts solar ar to prov
- vide
ide reliabl able power generat ration ion in Calif ifor
- rnia
ia
Net load, MWh
Flexibl ble e LNG suppl ply y balan ance ces s hydro ro generat ration ion to provi vide de reliabl able power in Brazi zil
Reservoir level BCM/Month
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% North & South hydro reservoir levels (LHS) LNG imports (RHS)
GAS SUPPORTS RENEWABLES
Hour of the day
Net load equals total generation minus solar and wind output; 7 day sample
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
Source: Shell interpretation of International Energy Agency (IEA) data
OECD electri ricity ity output t by sourc rce
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Biofuels and waste Oil
Share
Non-OECD CD electri rici city ty output t by sourc rce
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Natural gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Biofuels and waste Oil
Share
OECD LEADING THE MOVE TO GAS AND RENEWABLES FOR POWER GENERATION
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
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China na demand and growth h by sector
- r, 2017
10 20 30 40 50 50 100 150 200 250 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Gas demand (LHS) Change YoY (RHS)
China a gas demand
BCM
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, China National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs data; latest estimates for 2017
STRONG CHINA GAS DEMAND DRIVEN BY GROWTH OUTSIDE POWER
200 210 220 230 240 250 2016 Electricity Industrial Res, comm & heat Transport 2017
BCMA BCM
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data
BCM
LNG impor
- rts
ts by region ion
12
LNG IS THE FASTEST GROWING GAS SUPPLY SOURCE
CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2017 Domestic production Pipeline imports LNG imports 2035
62% 7% 31%
BCM
Global bal gas supply by sourc rce
LNG demand: 4% CAGR
200 400 600 800 1,000 2017 Asia Europe Americas Middle East & Africa 2035
55% 16% 15% 13%
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
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EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG
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LNG SOLVES GAS MARKET UNCERTAINTIES:
▪
Declining domestic production
▪
Pipeline disruptions
▪
Falling nuclear utilisation and reliability
▪
Hydroelectric seasonality, renewable intermittency
▪
Weather disruptions
▪
Geopolitics
▪
Timing of new supply
▪
Existing plant output
▪
Changing trade patterns
▪
Gas supply and demand uncertainty
LNG PROVIDES NEW FORM OF ENERGY SECURITY
LNG RESILIENT TO ITS OWN UNCERTAINTIES:
Queensland Curtis LNG Facility, Australia
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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02
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
LNG bunker vessel ‘Cardissa’
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017 data
LNG trade de
293 100 200 300 400 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
MTPA (DES) MTPA (FOB)
LNG liquef efac actio tion capac acity ty addit ition ions
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 10 20 30 40 50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nameplate capacity additions Share online (nameplate capacity)
UNPRECEDENTED LNG CAPACITY EXPANSION 45% COMPLETE
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie and Poten & Partners 2016 and Q4 2017 data
- 10
10 20 30
Total imports North Asia South Europe Rest of world North West Europe
Previous consensus forecast (as of late 2016) Actuals
Net impor
- rts:
s: 2017 7 YoY
Million tonnes (DES)
- 10
10 20 30
Total exports Australia US Africa Rest of world
Previous consensus forecast (as of late 2016) Actuals Million tonnes (DES)
Net expor
- rts:
s: 2017 7 YoY
GLOBAL LNG MARKET CONTINUES TO DEFY EXPECTATIONS
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie and Poten & Partners data 2016 and Q4 2017
- 4
4 8 12 16
UK Egypt UAE Indonesia Argentina Puerto Rico Lithuania US Norway Colombia Sweden Finland Belgium Canada Chile Japan Jamaica Jordan Dom Rep Israel Singapore Brazil Malta Netherlands Poland Malaysia Kuwait Greece Thailand Mexico India Portugal Italy Taiwan Pakistan France Spain Turkey Korea China Previous consensus forecast (as of late 2016) Actuals
Net impor
- rts:
s: 2017 7 YoY Million tonnes (DES)
29 MT INCREASE IN LNG IMPORTS IN 2017
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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10 20 30 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LNG imports Contracted LNG supply
China a LNG impor
- rts
ts
Million tonnes
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017, S&P Global Platts, ICE data and Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data
LNG ACCOMMODATES CHINA GROWTH AND SEASONAL DEMAND
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 China Japan, Korea, Taiwan Rest of World Other Europe North West Europe
Demand d season
- nal
alit ity
Share of cargoes
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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Source: Japanese customs data (Japan LNG import), S&P Global Platts (JKM), ICE (NBP, Brent, ARA coal), NYMEX (Henry Hub)
JKM as % Brent
Asian spot price
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Range 2010-2015 2016 2017
Global bal energy gy prices es
$/MMBTU 5 10 15 20 25
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Energy price range Henry Hub Brent NBP JKM (Platts) Japan LNG Import Coal (ARA)
SPOT PRICES CONTINUE TO REFLECT STRONG DEMAND FOR LNG
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017, S&P Global Platts and the ICE data
Spot LNG supply
Cargoes
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Australia US Qatar Other Re-exports % spot (RHS)
Share spot
Spot LNG deliveri ries
Cargoes
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
JKT China South Asia Middle East Europe Americas % spot (RHS)
Share spot
ICE JKM LNG (Platts) tts) futures es
Cargoes Lots (10,000 MMBTU)
PHYSICAL AND FINANCIAL LIQUIDITY INCREASE AS MARKET EVOLVES
9,000 18,000 27,000 36,000 45,000 54,000 30 60 90 120 150 180 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Americas Europe ME & Africa Asia FSRU share
Deliveri ries s to FSRUs
MTPA FSRU share
FSRU impor
- rtin
ing g market ets
Argentina
Brazil
China
Colombia
Egypt
Indonesia
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Jordan
Kuwait
Lithuania
Malta
Pakistan
Turkey
UAE
Existi ting ng
Croatia
Cyprus
El Salvador
Hong Kong
Ivory Coast
South Africa
Sri Lanka
Proposed posed
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017 data
FAST, FLEXIBLE FSRUs CONTINUE TO INCREASE LNG IMPORTS
FSRU picture re to be added
Under der Cons nstr truc ucti tion n & Devel elopm pment ent
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Chile
Ghana
Russia
Panama
FSRU moored off the port of Aqaba in Jordan
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017
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Diverse marine
segments choosing LNG
LNG bunkering network
developing globally
LNG road fuelling network
developing in China (2000+ stations) and EU (100+ stations)
DEMAND FOR LNG IN TRANSPORT GROWS GLOBALLY
Barge Car Carri rier er Ferry LNG Heavy Duty Truck truck Contai tainer er Ship Cruise e Ship Tanker LNG Fuel Station ion
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH
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03
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH
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Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit, Wood Mackenzie, FGE, BNEF and Poten & Partners Q4 2017 data
Investme stment t in liquefac acti tion
- n capac
acity ity
10 20 30 40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MTPA (FOB)
LACK OF SUPPLY INVESTMENT RISKS FUTURE GLOBAL LNG MARKET GROWTH
Year of investment decision
Emergin ging g LNG supply-de demand mand gap
MTPA (DES)
100 200 300 400 500 600 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
LNG supply in operation LNG supply under construction Demand forecasts
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SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH
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Source: Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data
Drivers rs of LNG demand
MTPA (DES) 100 200 300 400 500 600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Other market drivers Declining domestic gas production
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2010 2017 Traditional markets Liquid or liberalising markets
LNG buyers’ domestic gas competition
Share of LNG deliveries
LNG BUYERS AND THEIR NEEDS ARE CHANGING
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH
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Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017, Moody’s and Fitch data
4 8 12 16 20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average ge contra tract t length th
Years 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average ge contra tract t volume
MTPA
New long-te term m contrac ract t credit it ratin ing
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 A-rated B-rated Non-investment grade
Investment grade
LNG BUYERS SIGNING SHORTER AND SMALLER CONTRACTS
Share of contract volume
Royal Dutch Shell plc
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018 SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH
Term m sales s to impor
- rters
ers by suppl plie ier r type
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2008-2010 2015-2017
Supply project Portfolio Trader Intermediaries
27
LIQUEFACTION INVESTMENT NEEDED TO MEET DEMAND GROWTH
Source: Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017 data
Share of total contract volume
STALEMATE CONSTRAINING GROWTH OF LNG SUPPLY
FINANC ANCIE IERS Look to ensure revenue certainty END END-USER ERS Look to avoid long-term contracts that are not in line with their competitive position LNG G BUYER YERS Seek smaller, more flexible purchases to remain competitive in downstream market LNG G PRODUC DUCER ERS Seek long-term LNG sales to secure financing MISMATCH BETWEEN BUYER AND SELLER NEEDS
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SUMMARY
SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018
Methane Shirley Elisabeth
External al environmen ment t creating ng more opportunit itie ies s for gas and LNG ▪ Multiple levels of policy support gas and LNG demand ▪ Gas supports renewable power generation and provides cleaner non-power energy supply Strong LNG fundament ental als s exceed eeded ed expecta ctati tion
- ns