Defining climate modeling user needs what is actually required to - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Defining climate modeling user needs what is actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development? Rob Swart (Alterra, Netherlands) and Christian Pagé (CERFACS, France) AGU meeting Session on Climate modelling in support of policy decision making: needs and limitations II 15 December 2010

Background • IS-ENES: Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System Modelling • Effort to better connect climate and impacts communities since late 90s - with mixed success • Questionnaire to users in Europe in summer 2010 and workshop in January 2011 • Results support new strategy European climate modelling groups for coming years

Who are the users? Global climate modelling Statistical/dynamic downscaling • Water management; • Agriculture and forests; The biophysical impact • Biodiversity/nature protection researchers??? (terrestrial, freshwater); • Coastal areas; • Marine (biodiversity) and fisheries; • Health (human, animal, plant); • Infrastructure (transport, energy, other); • Financial instruments and The socio-economic insurance; researchers? • Urban and other types of spatial planning; • Disaster risk reduction. Practitioners, public/ private decision makers?

Two levels of users? Many non-specialized users – need guidance? Many specialized users – need tailoring?

Specify climate data users • Account for a diverse group of users , in terms of – types of sectoral impacts and – roles/functions (from impact modelers to private sector decision makers) – regions with a very different level of knowledge • Distinguish between non-specialized and specialized, niche users , in terms of – data volume – guidance and support provided.

Kind of information required by impacts community • Derived climate indices , notably indices on extreme events • Highest resolution possible , but then how to deal with uncertainties? • Full range of scenarios , including outer ends of ranges (worst or best case) • Probabilistic scenarios - these advantages but also serious constraints I terms of their interpretation: to avoid over-interpretation present with caution and proper guidance • Simple post-processing tools , e.g. for simple statistics, data conversions, or visualization 4000 Rotterdam? 4-5 years? 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 2050 2100

Not just data • Guidance on how to use and interpret the information with proper account of uncertainties • Better integration/harmonization of data sources at different geographic level • Specific tailor-made information is required for many specialist applications that cannot be meaningfully addressed in a generic way ??? 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 26-1 27-1 28-1 29-1 30-1 31-1 1-2 2-2 3-2 4-2 5-2

Easy access • Impact researchers and adaptation practitioners are not climate modelers: – Interface: design user friendly interfaces – Format: offer a variety of data formats – Barriers: remove institutional or financial constraints – Guidance: provide simple guidance

The broader context • Connect communities: the climate modeling and impacts communities should jointly work on developing guidance for impact researchers and practitioners on how to select and interpret climate scenario output in a way that best matches their needs. • Link with other scenarios: coordination with the provision or development of socio-economic scenarios required for IVA analysis is important.