Deep Sea Coral Analysis Overview of approach and analysis of Option - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Deep Sea Coral Analysis Overview of approach and analysis of Option - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Deep Sea Coral Analysis Overview of approach and analysis of Option 7 NEFSC Social Sciences Branch December 20, 2017 Utilize multiple data sources Attempt to overcome shortcomings in each Vessel Trip Report (VTR) Census of

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SLIDE 1

Deep Sea Coral Analysis

Overview of approach and analysis of Option 7

NEFSC Social Sciences Branch

December 20, 2017

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SLIDE 2

Utilize multiple data sources

  • Attempt to overcome shortcomings in each
  • Vessel Trip Report (VTR)
  • “Census” of fishing trips
  • Only one lat-lon per trip
  • Vessel Monitoring System (VMS)
  • Higher spatial resolution
  • Only lat-lon of poll, time stamp, and vessel identifier

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

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SLIDE 3

VTR data set

  • Joined VTR to NEFOP & ASM hauls
  • Statistical model estimates distance

between observed hauls and VTR locations

  • Data indicates a trip’s spatial resolution
  • Depends on trip length, gear employed,

region

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

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SLIDE 4

Use statistical model to assess confidence intervals

  • Distances equate to 25, 50, 75, 90 percentiles
  • Depends on trip length, area, and gear

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

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SLIDE 5

Comparison of results

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SLIDE 6

Comparison of VTR against observed hauls

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Point Aggregation Confidence Interval Scallop Dredge Bottom Trawl Gillnet Scallop Dredge Bottom Trawl Gillnet Ten minute square Mean 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

  • 0.0002%

Median

  • 0.01%
  • 0.004%
  • 0.01%

0.01% 0.004% 0.01% Standard Deviation 0.56% 0.21% 0.59% 0.41% 0.12% 0.31% 500 meters squared Mean 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Median

  • 0.002%
  • 0.001%
  • 0.01

0% 0% 0% Standard Deviation 0.05% 0.02% 0.14 0.002% 0.001% 0.005%

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SLIDE 7

Total mispredicted error (observed fishing and predicted nonfishing + no observed fishing and predicted fishing)

  • Point aggregation/Confidence interval mispredicted revenue

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

Ten Minute Square 500 m2 Gillnet 1.14494448 1.79742 Bottom Trawl 1.452881638 2.063841

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SLIDE 8

Revenue by Gear

Option 7 (revised Dec 2017)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8

Option 6 (600 m min)

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SLIDE 9

Percent of Owner Revenue

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

Option 7 (revised Dec 2017) Option 6 (600 m min)

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Top 10 species

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

Species Prefered Alternative Option 7 Percentage Increase BUTTERFISH 0.3 0.3 9% FLOUNDER, SUMMER 0.2 0.3 9% FLOUNDER, YELLOWTAIL 0.1 0.1 14% HADDOCK 0.1 0.2 14% HAKE, SILVER 1.1 1.2 11% INSHORE LONGFIN SQUID 0.7 0.7 10% MONKFISH 0.1 0.1 16% Other 0.2 0.2 11% SCALLOP, SEA 1.1 1.3 15% SKATES 0.0 Not Top 10 SQUID (ILLEX) 0.1 0.1 9% MACKEREL, ATLANTIC Not Top 10 0.0

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SLIDE 11

VMS as secondary data source

  • Statistical models generally outperform more widespread speed rules
  • Muench, DePiper, & Demarest (CJFAS 2017)
  • Records & Demarest (Mimeo)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

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SLIDE 12

VMS Bottom Trawl Predictions

Observed Hauls

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12

VMS Model

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VMS Coverage of VTR trips is high

Broad Zone Option 7 Gear Year Permits VTR Trips VMS Trips Coverage Bottom Trawl 2010 132 968 910 94% Bottom Trawl 2011 124 848 768 91% Bottom Trawl 2012 138 706 614 87% Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge 2010 19 20 18 90% Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge 2011 82 100 96 96% Scallop Gear & Clam Dredge 2012 194 265 257 97% Separator & Ruhle Trawl 2010 20 71 53 75% Separator & Ruhle Trawl 2011 33 135 114 84% Separator & Ruhle Trawl 2012 20 49 35 71%

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13

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SLIDE 14

VMS Weighted effort (Percent of all permit weighted effort)

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14

Option 7 (revised Dec 2017) Option 6 (600 m min)

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SLIDE 15

Option 7 probability weighted effort

Gear Year Hours Fished Trips Permits Bottom Trawl 2005 19 27 19 Bottom Trawl 2006 7 37 21 Bottom Trawl 2007 16 48 26 Bottom Trawl 2008 35 68 32 Bottom Trawl 2009 45 70 29 Bottom Trawl 2010 41 87 31 Bottom Trawl 2011 24 54 20 Bottom Trawl 2012 9 58 30 GC Scallop 2005 NA NA GC Scallop 2006 NA NA 1 GC Scallop 2007 NA NA GC Scallop 2008 NA NA GC Scallop 2009 NA NA GC Scallop 2010 NA NA GC Scallop 2011 NA NA 1 GC Scallop 2012 NA NA 1

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

Gear Year Hours Fished Trips Permits LA Scallop 2005 64 53 LA Scallop 2006 131 64 LA Scallop 2007 19 18 LA Scallop 2008 14 13 LA Scallop 2009 28 27 LA Scallop 2010 29 28 LA Scallop 2011 24 19 LA Scallop 2012 31 26 Squid Trawl 2005 3 35 20 Squid Trawl 2006 4 60 29 Squid Trawl 2007 16 90 37 Squid Trawl 2008 13 9 Squid Trawl 2009 8 22 6 Squid Trawl 2010 2 19 9 Squid Trawl 2011 5 19 10 Squid Trawl 2012 1 8 6

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In summary

  • The combined analysis indicates very few individuals have substantial

exposure to Option 7

  • VTR generally overestimates exposure
  • VMS coverage lacking for some highly exposed individuals
  • Predominantly landing longfin squid, silver hake, & butterfish
  • 19 of top 20 permits in 2013
  • 10 of top 20 permits in 2014
  • 7 of top 20 permits in 2015

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

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SLIDE 17

Questions?

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17

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Raw Distance Statistics

Gear # Hauls Mean Median

  • Std. Dev.

Min Max Bottom Trawl/Pot 130,385 16.33 6.51 23.87 284.83 Drift Gillnet 1,271 4.06 1.25 8.33 96.18 Longline 4,233 4.65 1.30 11.29 131.44 Midwater Trawl 3,626 10.66 3.31 19.47 204.39 Dredge 291,718 10.31 4.09 17.33 303.51 Sink Gillnet 34,462 5.41 1.77 12.24 186.59

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Observer coverage

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19

Gear Ton class 2010 rate 2011 rate 2012 rate 2013 rate Scallop Dredge 1 0.00 2.96 3.35 4.23 Scallop Dredge 2 2.15 1.98 1.16 3.04 Scallop Dredge 3 3.70 4.05 5.03 6.13 Scallop Dredge 4 7.64 8.33 11.40 10.93 Gillnet 1 4.16 8.49 6.87 6.18 Gillnet 2 12.29 12.78 10.95 5.71 Gillnet 3 16.84 19.93 16.28 11.81 Gillnet 4 NA NA Bottom Trawl 1 3.73 2.24 2.30 2.18 Bottom Trawl 2 6.60 8.93 8.89 7.69 Bottom Trawl 3 7.94 10.36 8.73 9.27 Bottom Trawl 4 16.51 21.30 17.78 15.15