Science for the Coral Science for the Coral Triangle: Underpinning - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Science for the Coral Science for the Coral Triangle: Underpinning a Triangle: Underpinning a sustainable future sustainable future

Terry Hughes Terry Hughes

• Human population growth and migration
• Wealth distribution and evolving markets

Drivers of Change on Coral Reefs

• Leading to runoff from land, over-fishing, and

climate change (the “threats”) …..the scale of all of these requires unprecidented international cooperation.

The Coral Triangle Initiative:

Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security

Phase Shifts and Tipping Points.

Historical Photograph: 1890

GBRMPA GBRMPA

Same site: 1994

David David Wackenfeld Wackenfeld

Mainland Queensland Today

Coral reefs – Past, Present….Future

Robust fisheries, food security and healthy ecosystems are inseparable:

What happens to the rest of the ecosystem if you remove fish? What happens to the fishes if their habitat is damaged?

What happens to the rest of the ecosystem if you remove fish?

Loss of fish biodiversity is Loss of fish biodiversity is important because they play important because they play critical ecological roles critical ecological roles

Inside fenced plots

Outside NTA

Adult Flux

How do NTA’s work?

Kimbe Island

10 20km

Kimbe Bay MPA Network

Draft management plan

NTAs - Recovery of Fish Stocks

APO ISLAND - PHILIPPINES y = 1.8492e0.1228x

5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20

YEARS OF PROTECTION

MEAN BIOMASS (kg/1000m2)

reserve nonreserve

Russ, Stockwell and Alcala (2005)

Scientific & political partnership

Garry Russ & Angel Alcala

• No-take marine reserves,

managed by local communities, play key role in biodiversity conservation & fisheries management.

• Innovative national

legislation, established new property rights & sustainable fisheries.

Climate Climate-

• change Impacts:

change Impacts: Coral Bleaching Coral Bleaching 1998, 2002, ???? 1998, 2002, ????

What happens to the fishes if their What happens to the fishes if their habitat is damaged? habitat is damaged?

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Generalists Coral-dependent

Fish abundance Before After

Graham (2007)

Impact of habitat-loss on reef fisheries

Skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) Tonnes of fish per km2

Pratchett et al. (2008) CTI Briefing Paper No. 9

Impact of climate change on tuna

SUMMARY

• Reefs are threatened, not doomed- if we can avoid

extreme climate change.

• Climate change, runoff and over-fishing are the three

big issues that have to be addressed together

• Prevention is better than cure
• We can chose to steer the trajectory of the planet one

way or another (but it will never again look like it did in 1800, 1900 or 2000): The decisions we make now, or don't make, will have profound long-term consequences.

International Linkages

A global network of scientists

Scoping Papers for Townsville Forum

1. The Coral Triangle region 2. Existing non-spatial management within the Coral Triangle 3. Existing spatial management within the CT 4. Resilience and shifting baselines 5. Data sufficiency and dealing with uncertainty 6. Incorporating and monitoring human uses and values 7. Participatory marine resource management 8. Climate change 9. Fisheries and climate change 10. Connectivity, larval survival/robustness & stressors 11. Threatened species 12. MPA objectives, multiple-use zones, no-take zones 13. MPA network design 14. Capacity building for marine resource management 15. Long-term biophysical monitoring 16. Climate change adaptation