SLIDE 1
david_snyder@verizon.net 1
david_snyder@verizon.net 2
david_snyder@verizon.net 1 david_snyder@verizon.net 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
david_snyder@verizon.net 1 david_snyder@verizon.net 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
david_snyder@verizon.net 1 david_snyder@verizon.net 2 david_snyder@verizon.net 3 C ERTAINTIES OF THE " K NOWABLE F UTURE " DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS The future size and make-up of the U.S. adult population including our labor
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
david_snyder@verizon.net 3
SLIDE 4
david_snyder@verizon.net 4
CERTAINTIES
OF THE "KNOWABLE FUTURE"
- DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS – The future size and
make-up of the U.S. adult population – including our labor pool and our consumer markets – can be accurately forecast fifteen years out.
- ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS – The future size and
make-up of the U.S. economy and workforce can be accurately forecast ten years out.
- TECHNOLOGIC FORECASTS – Mass-market
applications of new technology can be accurately forecast seven
to eight years out.
SLIDE 5
david_snyder@verizon.net 5
SLIDE 6
david_snyder@verizon.net 6
SLIDE 7
david_snyder@verizon.net 7
(Fig. 1) AGE COMPOSITION OF THE U.S. ADULT POPULATION 1955-2020
SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
SLIDE 8
david_snyder@verizon.net 8
SLIDE 9
david_snyder@verizon.net 9
SLIDE 10
david_snyder@verizon.net 10
SLIDE 11
david_snyder@verizon.net 11
SLIDE 12
david_snyder@verizon.net 12
SLIDE 13
david_snyder@verizon.net 13
SLIDE 14
david_snyder@verizon.net 14
SLIDE 15
david_snyder@verizon.net 15
SLIDE 16
david_snyder@verizon.net 16
SLIDE 17
david_snyder@verizon.net 17
debt, deleveraging & AUSTERITY
Asset Bubbles and Their Economic Consequences
A 2010 McKinsey Global Institute analysis of 45 historic episodes during which 10 developed nations and 4 developing nations significantly reduced their total debt- to-GDP ratios since 1930, found:
- long periods of deleveraging nearly always follow major
financial crises;
- deleveraging lasts 6 or 7 years, on average, during which
- public & private sector debt are typically reduced by 1/3,
while employment contracts & stagnates.
http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/debt_and_deleveraging
SLIDE 18
david_snyder@verizon.net 18
SLIDE 19
david_snyder@verizon.net 19
SLIDE 20
david_snyder@verizon.net 20
SLIDE 21
david_snyder@verizon.net 21
SLIDE 22
david_snyder@verizon.net 22
SLIDE 23
david_snyder@verizon.net 23
SLIDE 24
david_snyder@verizon.net 24
SLIDE 25
david_snyder@verizon.net 25
SLIDE 26
david_snyder@verizon.net 26
To learn how “Big Data” and the “Internet of Things” (IoT) will change how all decisions are made, performance is assessed and organizations are managed, read:
"BIG DATA: THE REAL INFORMATION REVOLUTION”
www.aaiforesight.com/blog/big-data-information-revolution
SLIDE 27
david_snyder@verizon.net 27
SLIDE 28
david_snyder@verizon.net 28
LABOR SUPPLY AND DEMAND – (2010 to 2020)
- Projected new job growth
20,468,900
- Projected replacement vacancies + 34,318,500
- Total job openings
54,787,400
- Projected labor force growth -10,372,000
- Job openings to be filled
44,415, 400 from existing labor pool
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (February, 2012)
SLIDE 29
david_snyder@verizon.net 29
SLIDE 30
david_snyder@verizon.net 30
SLIDE 31
david_snyder@verizon.net 31
SLIDE 32
david_snyder@verizon.net 32
SLIDE 33
david_snyder@verizon.net 33 david_snyder@verizon.net 33
SLIDE 34
david_snyder@verizon.net 34
SLIDE 35
david_snyder@verizon.net 35
SLIDE 36
david_snyder@verizon.net 36
SLIDE 37
david_snyder@verizon.net 37
SLIDE 38
david_snyder@verizon.net 38
SLIDE 39
david_snyder@verizon.net 39
David Pearce Snyder
Consulting Futurist
www.the-futurist.com
“The future evolves in an orderly fashion
- ut of the realities of the past, filtered and
shaped by the decisions of the present.”
David Pearce Snyder, 1969