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David Matkin LeRoy Collins Institute Research Fellow University at - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 24, 2022 343 likes •711 views

Debt Obligations in Florida Local Governments David Matkin LeRoy Collins Institute Research Fellow University at Albany SUNY Assistant Professor dmatkin@albany.edu Introduction Expand the Attention from Retirement Benefits to

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Debt Obligations in Florida Local Governments David Matkin LeRoy Collins Institute – Research Fellow University at Albany – SUNY – Assistant Professor dmatkin@albany.edu

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Introduction

  • Expand the Attention from Retirement Benefits to other

Types of Long-Term Obligations

  • City and County Long-Term Liabilities
  • Data from Bloomberg Financial Services
  • 395 Cities and 65 Counties
  • Unbalanced Panel from 2004 to 2015 (FY)
  • Two perspectives:
  • Long-term Liabilities / 2010 Population
  • Total Assets / Total Liabilities
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Key Findings:

  • Debt obligations decrease over most of the past decade but there

was a large increase in debt obligations in 2015.

  • Cities have larger debt obligations (on the books) than Counties.
  • There does not appear to be a close relationship between debt
  • bligations and populations growth (2000 to 2010) or population

size.

  • A handful of local governments stand out with high debt obligations

(per capita burden and without assets to cover).

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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000

LT Debt by Year Governments with > 2,000 population

Years LT Debt (per capita)

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2

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

LT Debt by Year Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers

Years LT Debt (per capita)

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3

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 −500 500 1000

Annual Change in LT Debt by Year Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers

Years Annual Change ($/capita)

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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 −500 500 1000

Annual Change in LT Debt by Year Governments with > 2,000 population & Report in 2015 excludes outliers

Years Annual Change ($/capita)

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Composition of Sample Popuation Size (y) and County or City (x)

County City < 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

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County City 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

LT Debt by Government Type Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers

Government Type LT Debt (per capita)

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< 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

LT Debt by Government Size All Governments excludes outliers

Population Size LT Debt

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< 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K −400 −200 200 400

Change in LT Debt by Government Size All Governments excludes outliers

Population Size LT Debt

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< 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K −500 500 1000

Change in LT Debt by Government Size All Governments (2014 to 2015) excludes outliers

Population Size Change in LT Debt ($/capita)

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Largo Coral Springs Plantation Deerfield Beach Deltona Hialeah Miami Gardens Boca Raton Palm Bay Boynton Beach

  • St. Petersburg

Miramar Davie Tampa Pembroke Pines Palm Coast Clearwater Miami Sunrise Hollywood Jacksonville West Palm Beach

  • Ft. Lauderdale

Orlando Miami Beach Port St. Lucie Tallahassee Cape Coral Lakeland Gainesville 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

The 30 Largest (Population) Cities 2014 data

LT Debt (per capita)

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Santa Rosa Leon Alachua Clay Lake Escambia Volusia Hillsborough Marion Hernando Brevard Citrus

  • St. Lucie

Okaloosa Pinellas Pasco Orange Seminole Palm Beach Polk Bay Manatee Sarasota Collier Broward Martin

  • St. Johns

Charlotte Osceola Miami−Dade 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

The 30 Largest (Population) Counties 2014 data

LT Debt (per capita)

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West Palm Beach

  • Ft. Lauderdale

Orlando Miami Beach Port St. Lucie Tallahassee Cape Coral Lakeland Gainesville Pensacola

  • Ft. Myers

Winter Park Auburndale Gulf Breeze Bay Harbor Islands

  • St. Augustine

Vero Beach Sanibel Cocoa Leesburg Panama City Beach Marathon Islamorada, Village of Islands Marco Island Palm Beach Bal Harbour Longboat Key Port St. Joe Daytona Beach Shores Oakland < 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Cities with the Highest LT Debt Populations > 2,000 2014 data

LT Debt (per capita)

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Hillsborough Marion Hernando Brevard Citrus

  • St. Lucie

Flagler Okaloosa Pinellas Pasco Orange Seminole Palm Beach Polk Bay Manatee Sarasota Collier Broward Martin

  • St. Johns

Charlotte Osceola Miami−Dade Walton Nassau DeSoto Monroe Gulf Franklin 5−25K 25−75K > 75K 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Counties with the Highest LT Debt Populations > 2,000 2014 data

LT Debt (per capita)

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Pembroke Pines Miramar Gainesville Miami Sunrise Jacksonville Hollywood Miami Beach Daytona Beach Delray Beach Pensacola Sarasota Hallandale Beach North Miami Beach Ocala Lake Worth

  • Ft. Myers

Coral Gables Temple Terrace Wilton Manors Fernandina Beach Vero Beach Venice

  • St. Pete Beach

Islamorada, Village of Islands Palm Beach Madeira Beach Bal Harbour Oakland Longboat Key < 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K 2000 4000 6000 8000 12000

The Highest LT Debt Increase in 2015 Cities with Populations > 2,000 2014 & 2015 data

LT Debt Increase ($/capita)

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Charlotte Pasco Collier Okaloosa Hernando Manatee Hillsborough Sarasota Highlands Palm Beach

  • St. Johns

Sumter Osceola Flagler Miami−Dade Okeechobee Putnam Gadsden Levy DeSoto Nassau Hardee Walton Monroe Liberty Hamilton Madison Franklin Gulf Glades 5−25K 25−75K > 75K 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

The Highest LT Debt Increase in 2015 Counties with Populations > 2,000 2014 & 2015 data

LT Debt Increase ($/capita)

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20000 40000 60000 80000 1e+05 2000 4000 6000 8000

x y

LT Debt per Capita − y axis Population Size − x axis 2014 data

1 2 3 4 5 6

Counts

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10 20 30 40 50 2000 4000 6000 8000

x y

LT Debt per Capita − y axis Population Growth in % − x axis 2014 data

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Counts

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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1000 2000 3000 4000

Debt Ratio by Year Governments with > 2,000 population

Years Debt Ratio

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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2 4 6 8 10 12

Debt Ratio by Year Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers

Years Debt Ratio

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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 −3 −2 −1 1 2

Annual Change in Debt Ratio by Year Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers

Years Annual Change in Debt Ratio

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2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 −3 −2 −1 1 2

Annual Change in Debt Ratio by Year Governments with > 2,000 population & Report in 2015 excludes outliers

Years Annual Change in Debt Ratio

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County City 2 4 6 8 10

Debt Ratio by Government Type Governments with > 2,000 population excludes outliers

Government Type Debt Ratio

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< 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K 5 10 15 20 25 30

Debt Ratio by Government Size All Governments excludes outliers

Population Size Debt Ratio

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< 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K −2 −1 1 2

Change in Debt Ratio by Government Size All Governments excludes outliers

Population Size Debt Ratio

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< 5K 5−25K 25−75K > 75K −4 −2 2

Change in Debt Ratio by Government Size All Governments (2014 to 2015) excludes outliers

Population Size Change in Debt Ratio

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Jacksonville Miami Gainesville Hollywood Hialeah Cape Coral Palm Bay Pembroke Pines Port St. Lucie Orlando Lakeland

  • Ft. Lauderdale

Davie Deltona West Palm Beach Miami Gardens Deerfield Beach Miramar Boynton Beach Tallahassee Sunrise

  • St. Petersburg

Palm Coast Tampa Coral Springs Miami Beach Clearwater Plantation Boca Raton Largo −5 5 10

The 30 Largest (Population) Cities 2014 data

Debt Ratio

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Miami−Dade Bay Broward Osceola Palm Beach Brevard Lake Martin Okaloosa

  • St. Lucie

Volusia Seminole Charlotte Escambia Sarasota Pasco

  • St. Johns

Pinellas Manatee Leon Collier Hernando Orange Clay Alachua Polk Santa Rosa Citrus Marion Hillsborough −5 5 10

The 30 Largest (Population) Counties 2014 data

Debt Ratio

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10 20 30 40 50 2000 4000 6000 8000

x y

LT Debt per Capita − y axis Debt Ratio − x axis 2014 data

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Counts

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10 20 30 40 50 2000 4000 6000 8000

x y

LT Debt per Capita − y axis Debt Ratio − x axis 2014 data

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Counts

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2 3 4 5 6 5000 10000 15000

Debt Ratio vs. LT Debt Per Capita 30 Largest Cities

Debt Ratio LT Debt (per capita)

Jacksonville Miami Tampa

  • St. Petersburg

Orlando Hialeah Tallahassee

  • Ft. Lauderdale

Port St. Lucie Pembroke Pines Cape Coral Hollywood Gainesville Miramar Coral Springs Clearwater Miami Gardens Palm Bay West Palm Beach Lakeland Davie Miami Beach Deltona Plantation Sunrise Boca Raton Largo Palm Coast Deerfield Beach Boynton Beach

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2 3 4 5 6 7 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Debt Ratio vs. LT Debt Per Capita 30 Largest Counties

Debt Ratio LT Debt (per capita)

Miami−Dade Broward Palm Beach Hillsborough Orange Pinellas Polk Brevard Volusia Pasco Seminole Sarasota Marion Manatee Collier Escambia Lake

  • St. Lucie

Leon Osceola Alachua Clay

  • St. Johns

Okaloosa Hernando Bay Charlotte Santa Rosa Martin Citrus

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Thank you !! Questions & Suggestions ??

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