Danske Bank Additional Tier 1 Capital Investor Presentation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Investor Presentation February 2015

Danske Bank Additional Tier 1 Capital

2

Financial results for Q1 2013

Agenda

Executive summary Overview Capital, liquidity & funding Financial results New issue Q & A

3 27 19 14 9 6

3

Financial results for Q1 2013

Executive summary: Danske Bank in brief

Macro-economic

• perating

environment Operates principally in AAA rated Northern European countries: the largest Danish commercial bank with a strong footprint across the Nordic space Diversified business model Diversified business position by line of business and country Profit Net profit before goodwill impairments of DKK 12.9 bn, corresponding to ROE of 8.5% Impairments Significant improvement in impairments. Loan loss ratio for 2014 of 15 bp for core activities and 20 bp for the entire Group Capital Danske Bank Group CET1 ratio of 15.1% and total capital ratio of 19.3% as of YE2014 Funding and liquidity Robust funding model with LCR of 129% as of YE2014 Dividend The Board of Directors is proposing a dividend of DKK 5.5 per share and has decided to initiate a share buy-back programme of DKK 5 bn in 2015 Solid rating position Moody’s A3 (stable) / S&P A (negative) / Fitch A (stable)

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Executive summary: Additional Tier 1 Notes

Nature of transaction EUR RegS benchmark transaction Structure Perpetual, non-call [7] with temporary write-down conditions Trigger The notes will carry 7 % transitional CET1 trigger at both the Bank and Group level Distance to trigger Significant 12.1% distance to trigger at the Bank level and 8.1% at the Group level Distance to MDA restriction Significant distance to MDA restriction Expected rating of the notes (S/F) BB+ / BB+ Rationale Continued normalisation of capital structure to be efficient under CRD IV. 7.0% trigger allows for recognition in relation to Pillar II requirements. Adjust capital structure to optimise efficiency in relation to rating agencies. Supports total capital ratio in light of announced dividend and share buyback.

5

Financial results for Q1 2013

Agenda

Executive summary Overview Capital, liquidity & funding Financial results New issue Q & A

3 27 19 14 9 6

6

Financial results for Q1 2013

Overview: Danske Bank has a strong Nordic franchise

* Excluding agricultural centres in Denmark. **Market share by lending Q4 2014

Business units

Personal Banking Business Banking Corporates & Institutions Danica Pension Danske Capital

Non-core

Non-core (Ireland & Conduits) Personal banking activities in the Baltics Northern Ireland Denmark Norway Sweden Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania

19% 27% 5% 5% 10% 7% 2% 6% Danske Bank market share**

Facts

3.7 million customers 329 branches* 15 countries 18,478 full-time employees

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Nordic footprint across sectors

Lending in Personal and Business Banking, Q4 2014 (%) Credit exposure by industry, Q4 2014 (%) 11 1 3 8 11 9 57 C&I Baltics

• N. Ireland

Norway Sweden Finland Denmark 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 9 12 37 Shipping Insurance Credit Institutes

• Constr. & building products

Energy & Utilities Other commercial Consumer Agriculture Industrial Services etc Banks Other financials Public institutions Investment funds Non-profit & Associations Other Commercial property Personal customers

Total lending of DKK 1,564 bn Total credit exposure

• f DKK 2,268 bn

8

Financial results for Q1 2013

Agenda

Executive summary Overview Financial results Capital, liquidity & funding New issue Q & A

3 27 19 14 9 6

9

Financial results for Q1 2013 2014 2013 Index Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Index Net interest income 23,107 22,077 105 5,880 5,976 98 Net fee income 10,491 9,468 111 2,966 2,640 112 Net trading income 6,562 5,799 113 977 1,525 64 Other income 1,344 1,308 103 366 304 120 Net income from insurance business 2,362 1,088 217 1,032 488 211 Total income 43,866 39,740 110 11,221 10,933 103 Expenses 22,641 23,794 95 6,090 5,530 110 Goodwill impairment charges 9,099

• 9,099
• Profit before loan impairment charges

12,126 15,947 76

• 3,968

5,403

• Loan impairment charges

2,788 4,111 68 853 668 128 Profit before tax, core 9,338 11,836 79

• 4,821

4,735

• Profit before tax, Non-core
• 1,503
• 1,777
• 477
• 232
• Profit before tax

7,835 10,059 78

• 5,298

4,503

• Tax

3,989 2,944 135 987 1,231 80 Net profit 3,846 7,115 54

• 6,285

3,272

• Net profit before goodwill impairments

12,945 7,115 182 2,814 3,272 86 Return on avg. shareholders' equity (%) 2.4 5.0

• 16.9

8.5 ROE before goodwill impairments (%) 8.5 5.0 7.1 8.5 Cost/income ratio* 51.6 59.9 54.3 50.6 Common equity tier 1 capital ratio (%) 15.1 14.7 15.1 15.0 EPS 3.6 7.1

• 6.4

3.2 Lending (DKK bn) 1,564 1,537 102 1,564 1,582 99 Deposits (DKK bn) 763 776 98 763 761 100

Net profit: DKK 12.9 bn,* up 82% from 2013

Income statement & key figures (DKK m) Key points, 2014 vs 2013 Key points, Q4 14 vs Q3 14

• Return on equity improved from

5.0% to 8.5% before goodwill impairments

• Total income up 10%, with gains in

all income lines

• Insurance income improved owing

to booking of full risk allowance and part of the shadow account

• Expenses down 5%
• Impairments down 32%
• NII decreased slightly, owing

primarily to currency effects

• Fee income up 12% from higher

activity and performance fees at Danske Capital

• Insurance income includes booking
• f DKK 0.6 billion from the shadow

account

• Expenses up 10% owing mainly to

restructuring charges and seasonality

* Before goodwill impairment charges.

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Expenses: Reduced by 5% in 2014 as a result of continued cost-efficiency measures

Total Group expenses ex goodwill charge (DKK m) Change in expenses ex goodwill (DKK m)

901 762 826 629 931 873 694 590 659 780 542 2014 22,641 19,810 2013 23,794 20,627 2012 23,958 20,835 464 470 Other costs Write-down on Sampo name Bonuses Deposit scheme guarantee / bank packages Severance payments Consultants etc. 22,641 2014 Other costs 227 Consultants etc. 239 Property, rent etc. 105 Office expenses 281 Severance payments 104 Staff costs 197 2013 23,794

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Impairments: Loan loss ratio for 2014 of 15 bp for core activities and 20 bp for the entire Group

Group impairments, 2008 to 2014 (DKK bn/bp) Impairments (DKK m)

27 99 173

30 60 90 120 150 180 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Q409 Q410 Q411 Q412 Q413 Q414 Q408

33 11

Loan loss ratio* (rhs) Impairments

* The loan loss ratio is defined as annualised impairment charges as a percentage of loans and guarantees.

Loan loss ratio, annualised (bp)

2014 2013 Index Q414 Q314 Index Personal Banking 1,412 1,887 75 517 342 151 Business Banking 1,007 1,751 58 161 342 47 C&I 372 473 79 177

• 15
• Other activities
• 2
• 2
• Total core

2,788 4,111 68 853 668 128 Non-core 930 1,309 71 413 137

• Group

3,718 5,420 69 1,266 805 157 2014 2013 Index Q414 Q314 Index Personal Banking 17 22 77 25 17 147 Business Banking 17 27 63 11 22 50 C&I 7 9 78 13

• 1
• Total core

15 21 71 18 14 129 Non-core 218 251 87 388 143 271 Group 20 27 74 27 17 159

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Change in ROE (%, after tax)

Bridge to above 12.5% ROE in 2018 with unchanged macro, CET1 ratio of around 14% and capital management actions

Comments (Q4 presentation for assumptions)

ROE target of above 12.5% in 2018 at the latest

• Interest rates as per end 2014
• Low growth and low credit demand

Costs

• Efficiencies to mitigate cost inflation (2%) and increasing

payroll tax, one-off saving from Sampo-related amortisation charge ending in 2017 Funding & ratings

• Assumes maturing funding refinanced at current prices.

Further, assumes improved credit rating Volume growth

• 2% loan growth and 2% non-NII growth

Income initiatives

• Danske Capital and Danica income growth
• Pricing optimisation

Loan losses & other

• Lower loan losses, including Non-core exit

Capital

• Higher nominal equity in 2018 net of effect of capital

management Loan losses & other ROE 2018E Capital effect 0.5% Above 12.5% 0.5-1% Income initiatives 0.5% Volume effect 0.5-1% Funding & ratings 0.5-1% Costs 0.5-1% ROE 2015E* 9.5%

* Based on our external 2015 ROE target of 9% adjusted for the goodwill write-down of DKK 9.1 bn.

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Agenda

Executive summary Overview Capital, liquidity & funding Financial results New issue Q & A

3 27 19 14 9 6

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Funding and liquidity: Successful capital issues and high issuance activity in 2014

64 39 95 73 2015E 50-70 2014 2013 2012 2011 Completed Funding plan 129 125 133 119 127 100 125 150 110*** Q4 14 Q3 14 Q2 14 Q1 14 Q4 13

* Spread over 3M EURIBOR. **LCR is calculated in accordance with the Danish FSA’s specifications and includes holdings of covered bonds and Danish mortgage bonds, including own issued bonds. ***Minimum requirement of the Danish FSA.

Changes in funding , 2014 (DKK bn and bp*) Liquidity coverage ratio** (%) Long-term funding ex RD (DKK bn)

5 6 4 6

56bp

28 1 29

Redemptions 2015: DKK 65 bn

62bp 108bp 51bp

31 26

New 2014: DKK 64 bn

478bp 165bp 39bp 19bp

25 30

Redeemed 2014: DKK 64 bn

586bp 114bp 132bp

Tier 2 Senior Cov.bonds Tier 1 28 17 25 30 20 13 11 12

65bp 133bp 50bp

2018: DKK 50 bn

196bp 54bp 41bp

2017: DKK 49 bn 2016: DKK 58 bn

95bp 98bp

Maturing funding, 2016-18 (DKK bn and bp*)

Senior Tier 1 Tier 2 Cov.bonds

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Financial results for Q1 2013

• In Q4 2014, total REA declined DKK

2 bn to DKK 866 bn, mainly because

• f developments in the portfolio
• Implementation of the remaining

FSA orders has been postponed to H1 2015

• CRD IV leverage ratio: 4.1%

according to the transitional rules; 3.6% fully phased-in

• Effect of CRR/CRD IV on fully loaded

CET1 ratio is a decline of about 1.3 percentage points from the Q4 2014 ratio

• Repayment of the state hybrid

capital of DKK 24 bn caused the total capital ratio to drop in Q1 2014

• Share buy-backs of DKK 5 bn in

2015 will cause a decrease of 0.6 of a percentage point in the CET1 ratio as of end-2014

Capital: Solid capital base, with CET1 ratio of 15.1%

Pro forma 2014

• incl. share buy-back

18.7 14.5 1.6 2.6 2014 19.3 15.1 1.6 2.6 2013 21.4 4.4 2.4 14.7 4.3 2.4 2012 21.3 14.5

Common equity tier 1 Tier 2 Hybrid tier 1 / Additional tier 1

Capital drivers Capital ratios, under Basel III/CRR (%)

16

Financial results for Q1 2013

Capital: Strong build-up since 2009

Capital base, 2009-2014 (DKK bn) Key points REA and capital ratios (DKK bn, %) 77 79 131 39 37 37 23 24 53 25 14 11 14

Q4 2014

167

Growth in CET1 capital Decrease in subordinated debt Q2 2009

155

Other capital increases and decreases

6

State hybrid Q4 2008

125 CET1 capital Tier 2 capital AT1 capital

• Strong capital build-up since 2009

with a CET1 ratio of 15.1% and total capital ratio of 19.3 at end- 2014

• State hybrid capital of DKK 24 bn

was repaid in 2014 along with issuance of DKK 5.6 bn AT1 capital

• Danske Bank is focusing on an
• ngoing optimisation of the current

capital instruments in relation to CRD IV’s grandfathering of non- compliant CRD IV instruments

2014 2011 2008 REA 865.8 906.0 960.1 CET1 ratio 15.1 11.8 8.1 Tier 1 ratio 16.7 16.0 9.2 Total capital ratio 19.3 17.9 13.0

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Financial targets: Target for ROE of above 12.5% in 2018

Target Status at 31 December 2014 Comments 2015 ambition S&P/Moody’s/Fitch A/A3/A Negative/Stable/Stable CET1 ratio Minimum 13% 15.1% Met since end-2012 Around 14% Total capital ratio Minimum 17% 19.3% Met since end-2012 Well above 17% Dividend payments Payout of 40-50% of net profit 43% of net profit before goodwill impairments (proposed) Met with 2015- payments (proposed) Payout of 40-50% of net profit * 2018 at the latest Ratings Return on equity S&P rating outlook improved to stable Above 12.5%* 9.5% A ratings In progress, upgrade from S&P in April 2014 and from Moody's in November 2014 8.5% before goodwill impairments Initiatives progressing as planned

18

Financial results for Q1 2013

Agenda

Executive summary Overview Financial results Capital, liquidity & funding New issue Q & A

3 27 19 14 9 6

19

Financial results for Q1 2013

Capital Optimisation under CRD IV

• Strong CET1 position to be supplemented with Additional Tier 1 capital
• Adjustment of our capital structure in line with capital targets
• Continued normalisation of capital structure to be efficient under CRD IV
• 7.0% trigger allows for recognition in relation to Pillar II requirements
• Supports total capital ratio in light of announced dividend and share buyback

Supporting Senior Creditors

• Support for senior creditors and depositors by enhancing total capital in context of the Bank

Recovery & Resolution Directive

• Adjust capital structure to optimise efficiency in relation to rating agencies

New issue: Transaction Rationale

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4

Trigger Metric* Transitional CET1 Transitional CET1 Transitional CET1 Transitional CET1 Fully loaded CET1 Principal Loss Absorption Mechanism Temporary Write-down Temporary Write-down Temporary Write-down Temporary Write-down Conversion into Bank’s

• rdinary shares

PONV Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Capital Buffer at issue** Basel III End 2014 Basel III 1H2014 Basel III 3Q2014 Basel III 2Q2014 Basel III fully loaded 2Q2014

Comparison with other Additional Tier 1 precedents

Source: Transaction documentation, Bloomberg, IFR; according to Issuers’ presentations, as understood. The numbers are calculated to the best knowledge of Danske Bank. However, investors should conduct their own analysis for their own purposes and Danske Bank takes no responsibility. * Transitional CET1 means Basel 3 CET 1 phased-in capital definition in the European Union. Fully-loaded CET1 means that all measures used shall be calculated on a fully loaded basis. ** Buffer to trigger relates to the latest AT1 transaction.

7.000% Group Bank 8.100% 7.000% 12.100% Implied buffer to Trigger Trigger 7.000% Group Bank 5.600% 5.125% 9.845% 8.000% Group Bank 8.200% 5.125% 12.600% 8.000% Group Bank 7.200% 5.125% 16.775% 7.000% Consolidated 4.300%

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Key points

Mandatory distribution restrictions

• Mandatory restrictions to discretionary distributions* will apply to all European banks under CRD IV.

The Maximum Distributable Amount (“MDA”) is calculated in relation to the combined capital buffer requirement (“CBR”).

• CBR is defined as the capital conservation buffer extended by the systemic risk buffer and

countercyclical capital buffer.

• Danske Bank’s CBR of 5.7% consists of a 2.5% capital conservation buffer, a 0.2% countercyclical

capital buffer reflecting the exposures in Norway and Sweden and a 3.0% systematic risk buffer.

• According to CRD IV, the Pillar II requirement is not relevant for MDA purposes.

Danske Bank intends to manage its CET1 capital ratio to provide a prudent cushion to its CBR to mitigate against the risk of mandatory distribution restrictions under CRD IV

*Dividends on ordinary shares, coupon payments on AT1 instruments and discretionary variable compensation

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Mitigating mandatory distribution restrictions

Estimated capital buffer structure, (%) Key points

Systemic risk buffer Capital conservation buffer Countercyclical capital buffer (0.2% from 2015) CET1 min req. Sliding scale of restrictions CET1 trigger point 7% CET1 capital target min.13% CET1 (End 2014) 15.1%

• Significant headroom to the MDA

restriction point is anticipated, assuming that the min. 13% CET1 ratio target is maintained*

• Between now and 2017, the

effective floor for mandatory restrictions on interest payments will be the 7% CET1 trigger, stepping up to 10.2% by 2019 when the CRD IV transitional rules are fully phased-in

52 52 52 45 35 24 24 2014A 2019E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2020E 2018E

Estimated MDA buffers* (DKK bn)

* MDA buffer capped by trigger level, if relevant. Assuming CET target of min. 13% and that min. requirements are covered by relevant capital instruments.

5.2 4.0 2.8 2.8

MDA buffer*

6.0 6.0 6.0

4,0 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 1,2 1,8 2,4 3,0 3,0 1,3 1,9 2,5 2,5

10 5 15 2018E 2016E 2014A

4.0 0.6 0.6 5.3 6.5

2015E 2019E

7.8 10.2

2020E

10.2 9.0

2017E

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Note: The terms are outlined in their entirety in the full terms and conditions of the Notes. In case of any discrepancy, the Base Prospectus prevails. * ”CRD IV” means, as the context requires, any or any combination of the CRD IV Directive, the CRR and any CRD IV Implementing Measures.

New issue: Terms and Conditions 1/3

Issuer Danske Bank A/S Issuer’s Senior Ratings (M/S/F) A3 (Stable) / A (Negative) / A (Stable) Instrument Ratings (S/F) [BB+] / [BB+] (expected) Description EUR [ ] Perpetual Non-cumulative Resettable Additional Tier 1 Capital Notes (the “Notes”) Maturity Perpetual Optional Redemption [] April [2022] (“First Call Date”) at the Outstanding Principal Amount or on any interest payment date thereafter subject to regulatory approval Interest [ ]% p.a. payable semi-annually in arrear up to the First Call Date Thereafter reset to a new fixed rate, payable semi-annually in arrear, based

• n the underlying swap rate plus the margin, in [2022] and every [seventh]

anniversary thereafter Interest Cancellation Any payment of interest in respect of the Notes shall be payable only out of the Issuer’s Distributable Items and (i) may be cancelled, at any time, in whole or in part, at the option of the Issuer in its sole discretion, or (ii) will be mandatorily cancelled to the extent the relevant payment would cause any Maximum Distributable Amount to be exceeded or if otherwise so required by the CRD IV*, including the applicable criteria for Additional Tier 1 Capital instruments

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Status/Subordination Notes are eligible to constitute Additional Tier 1 Capital under CRD IV. Subject to any Loss Absorption Following a Trigger Event and Reinstatement of the Notes as detailed below, the Notes will constitute direct, unsecured and subordinated debt obligations of the Issuer, and will rank (i) pari passu without any preference among themselves, (ii) pari passu with any other Additional Tier 1 Capital of the Issuer (including the Existing Hybrid Tier 1 Capital Notes) and obligations or capital instruments that rank or are expressed to rank equally with the Notes, (iii) senior to all classes of Issuer’s share capital and obligations ranking

• r expressed to rank junior to the Notes and (iv) junior to all other obligations of the

Issuer Special Event Redemption The Issuer may redeem the Notes at the Outstanding Principal Amount at any time in case of a Tax Event (future additional amounts or loss of deductibility) or a Capital Event (exclusion from or reclassification to a lower form of regulatory capital) (each a “Special Event”) subject to regulatory approval Substitution and Variation If a Special Event has occurred, the Issuer may substitute all (but not some only) of the Notes or vary the terms of all (but not some only) of the Notes, without any requirement for the consent or approval of the Holders, so that they become or remain Qualifying Capital Notes Qualifying Capital Notes must (i) comply with the then current Additional Tier 1 Capital requirements and provide the same amount of regulatory recognition as the Notes, (ii) carry the same rate of interest, (iii) have the same original and outstanding principal amounts, (iv) rank pari passu with the Notes, (v) not immediately be subject to a Special Event Redemption, (vi) have terms that are not materially less favourable to an investor and (vii) maintain listing

Note: The terms are outlined in their entirety in the full terms and conditions of the Notes. In case of any discrepancy, the Base Prospectus prevails.

New issue: Terms and Conditions 2/3

25

Financial results for Q1 2013

Loss Absorption following a Trigger Event and Reinstatement If at any time the Common Equity Tier 1 (“CET1”) Capital Ratio of the Issuer and/or the Group has fallen below 7%, the Outstanding Principal Amounts shall be reduced (in whole or in part) Subject to CRD IV and BRRD requirements the amount of the write down shall be the lower of (i) the amount that would cure the Trigger Event taking into account first the CET1 generated by any instruments with a higher CET1 trigger than the Notes and second any CET1 generated pro rata by all Parity Trigger Loss Absorbing Instruments (if any), and (ii) the amount that would reduce the Outstanding Principal Amounts to EUR 0.01 Following any such reduction of the Outstanding Principal Amounts, the Issuer may, at its discretion, reinstate some or all of the principal amount of the Notes subject to compliance with CRD IV Reinstatement would be on a pro-rata basis with all other Parity Trigger Loss Absorbing Instruments with triggers at the same level and that feature similar reinstatement provisions PONV The Notes may be subject to statutory loss absorption as more fully described in the risk factors in the Base Prospectus Governing Law English Law, except subordination, interest cancellation, loss absorption and reinstatement, special event redemption and enforcement events which will be under Danish Law Denominations/ Listing EUR 200k+1k/Irish Stock Exchange

• Neg. Pledge/

Cross Def. None

Note: The terms are outlined in their entirety in the full terms and conditions of the Notes. In case of any discrepancy, the Base Prospectus prevails.

New issue: Terms and Conditions 3/3

26

Financial results for Q1 2013

Agenda

Executive summary Overview Financial results Capital, liquidity & funding New issue Q & A

3 27 19 14 9 6

27

Financial results for Q1 2013

Q&A session

www.danskebank.com/ir

28

Financial results for Q1 2013

Contacts

Henrik Ramlau-Hansen Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Board Direct: +45 45 14 06 66 Mobile: +45 22 20 73 10 E-mail: hram@danskebank.com Christoffer Møllenbach Head of Treasury Direct: +45 45 14 63 60 Mobile: +45 21 55 10 52 E-mail: chm@danskebank.dk Peter Holm Senior Vice President Direct: +45 45 12 84 85 Mobile: +45 20 98 50 45 E-mail: holm@danskebank.dk Bent Callisen First Vice President Direct: +45 45 12 84 08 Mobile: +45 30 10 23 05 E-mail: call@danskebank.dk Claus Ingar Jensen Head of IR Direct: +45 45 12 84 83 Mobile: +45 25 42 43 70 E-mail: clauj@danskebank.dk John Bäckman Chief IR Officer Direct: +45 45 14 07 92 Mobile: +45 30 51 46 85 E-mail: jbc@danskebank.dk Robin Hjelgaard Løfgren IR Officer Direct: +45 45 14 06 04 Mobile: +45 24 75 15 40 E-mail: rlf@danskebank.dk

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Financial results for Q1 2013

Disclaimer

Important Notice This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Danske Bank A/S in any jurisdiction, including the United States, or an inducement to enter into investment

• activity. No part of this presentation, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any

contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. The securities referred to herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securities Act”), and may not be offered

• r sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Danske Bank believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors many of which are beyond Danske Bank’s control. This presentation does not imply that Danske Bank has undertaken to revise these forward-looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.