Current climate change impacts and adaptation in European - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Current climate change impacts and adaptation in European - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 18, 2022 139 likes •310 views

Current climate change impacts and adaptation in European agriculture Professor Jrgen E. Olesen AARHU ADAPT2CLIMA JRGEN EIVIND OLESEN S 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY UNIVER SITY T emperature over

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DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR ADAPT2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Current climate change impacts and adaptation in European agriculture

Professor Jørgen E. Olesen

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

T emperature over land i Europe increases rapidly

EEA (2017)

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Spatial trends in precipitation

EEA (2017)

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Climate change poses risks to current systems

  • Risks to production systems are mostly related

to extreme events and new biotic interactions

  • Heat waves
  • Frost, snow, ice
  • Droughts
  • Intense or long lasting rainfall (floods)
  • Storms
  • Pest and diseases
  • Climate change increases
  • Frequency of extreme events
  • Inter-annual variability
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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Trends in summer soil moisture

EEA (2017)

Trend 1951-2012 Projection until 2050s

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Change in frequency of extreme drought under moderate climate change

EEA (2017)

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Drought is the major threat for cereals under climate change in Europe (2050s)

Webber et al. (2018) Nature Com. 9, 4249

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Changes in the jet stream determines variability

  • The jet stream determines the fmow of

cyclones at mid and high latitudes

  • The suitable climate (varying dry and

wet conditions in Nordic climate) is determined by this fmow of cyclones

  • Warming reduces temperature

difgerence between arctic and mid- latitude temperatures

  • This weakens the jet stream, possibly

resulting in more stable locking of the jet stream

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Declining resilence of European wheat

Kahiliuoto et al. (2019) PNAS 116, 123-128

  • Climate change increases variability in

temperature and rainfall

  • Adaptation to such changes requires

increasing resilience

  • Resilience may be achieved with greater

varietal response diversity

  • Analysis of >100.000 observations of yield

from European variety trials

  • Results show declining diversity and lower

resilience

  • Need for greater focus on diversity and

resilience through breeding and variety choice

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Survey of impacts and adaptation in European crops

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Observed changes and attribution

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Planned adaptations

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Planned adaptations

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Challenges to current resource and environmental management

  • Changes in climatic suitability will

lead to changes in land use, greatly afgecting production in agriculture and forestry, but also the quality of nature, the environment, groundwater and surface water systems.

  • Future resource management needs

to meet many confmicting goals.

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ADATP2CLIMA JØRGEN EIVIND OLESEN 25 JUNE 2019 SECTION MANAGER, PROFESSOR

DEPARTMENT OF AGROECOLOGY

AARHU S UNIVER SITY

Greater focus on adaptation to climate change is needed

  • Planning of adaptation to climate

change is essential where

  • There are long lead times before new

technologies, materials or management schemes can be implemented

  • Involvement of several actors or institutions

is required

  • Examples of need for action on

adaptation

  • Land use planning and management, e.g.

related to drainage soils and water resources for irrigation

  • Enhanced focus on water/irrigation use

effjciency

  • Use of genetic resources of plants and

animals

  • Management and prevention of diseases
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AARHU S UNIVER SITY