Crenshaw Corridor Strategic Plan (Draft) Economic Findings November - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Crenshaw Corridor Strategic Plan (Draft) Economic Findings November - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Crenshaw Corridor Strategic Plan (Draft) Economic Findings November 15, 2007 Presented to The Crenshaw Corridor Stakeholder Task Force Table of Contents I. Introduction II. Understanding of the Assignment III. Socio-Demographic Overview

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SLIDE 1

Crenshaw Corridor Strategic Plan (Draft) Economic Findings

Presented to

The Crenshaw Corridor Stakeholder Task Force

November 15, 2007

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SLIDE 2

November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 2

Table of Contents

I. Introduction II. Understanding of the Assignment III. Socio-Demographic Overview IV. Real Estate Market Overview V. Supportable Development Estimates VI. Strategic Issues

  • VII. Discussion
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SLIDE 3

November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 3

Introduction - ERA Team

David A. Wilcox, FAICP

Senior Vice President

10990 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1500 Los Angeles, California 90024 310.477.9585 FAX: 310.478.1950 e-mail: David.Wilcox@econres.com www.econres.com

Amitabh Barthakur, AICP

Principal

10990 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1500 Los Angeles, California 90024 310.477.9585 FAX: 310.478.1950 e-mail: Amitabh.Barthakur@econres.com www.econres.com

Judith Taylor

Associate

10990 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 1500 Los Angeles, California 90024 310.477.9585 FAX: 310.478.1950 e-mail: Judy.Taylor@econres.com www.econres.com

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 4

Understanding of the Assignment

Creation of a Development Vision and Strategic Plan for the Crenshaw Corridor Study area from I-10 to King Blvd. – About 1.65 Miles Project partners Include

  • CRA/LA;
  • MTA;
  • Council Dist. 10;
  • Community Stakeholders

Two RDA Projects

  • Mid City
  • Crenshaw Corridor

Obvious ‘Anchors’ Include

  • West Angeles Church of God in Christ

Cathedral and Campus

  • Crenshaw Plaza Shopping Center
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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 5

Understanding of the Assignment

Project Goals

  • 1. Create a regional destination – a

pedestrian friendly district

  • 2. Leverages the new light rail

extension for transit oriented development

  • 3. Generates employment and

supports the local economy

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SLIDE 6

November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 6

Understanding of the Assignment

Project Opportunities

  • Exposition Light Rail Transit Station,

(operating in 2010)

  • Participation/Interest of community

institutions holding a number of parcels along the corridor, including

  • The West Angeles Church of God in

Christ and

  • Ward EDC
  • New light rail station with TOD
  • pportunities
  • Participation/Interest of private land
  • wners
  • Proven success of redevelopment

projects

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 7

Analysis Zone

Upper Crenshaw District

  • The Crenshaw Corridor will Capture

Demand for Various Land Uses from a Larger Local and Regional Market

  • However, the Corridor Itself is a

Fairly Narrow Analysis Area in the Context of Regional Market Demand Analysis

  • For Analysis purposes ERA Defined

the Analysis Area as Census Tracts Within a 1-Mile ring of the Corridor Center

  • This Area Also Represents Primary

Resident Market Base

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 8

Demographic Profile (2005)

3.08 2.93 2.65 Persons/HH 3,247,077 1,322,153 25,769 Households 9,998,371 3,879,964 68,333 Population Los Angeles County City of Los Angeles Upper Crenshaw District

Source: ESRI 2005, ERA

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 9

Demographic Profile (2005) – Age Cohorts

Source: ESRI 2005, ERA

80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 80 years 80 to 85 years 85 years and over Crenshaw as % of City of LA Crenshaw as % of LA County

The analysis area contains a higher proportion population aged under 14 years and over 60 years compared to regional averages

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 10

Demographic Profile (2005) – Racial Distribution

11.7% 56.0% 0.6% 3.9% 0.1% 22.8% 4.9% 44.6% 10.4% 0.7% 10.4% 0.2% 27.9% 5.8% 46.1% 9.2% 0.8% 12.4% 0.3% 25.7% 5.6% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% White African American American Indian/Alaska Native Asian Asian/Pacific Islander Some other race alone Two or more races Crenshaw District City of Los Angeles Los Angeles County

Source: ESRI 2005, ERA

The African Americans comprise 56 percent of total population the analysis area compared to 10.4 percent in the City of L.A. and 9.2 percent in L.A. County

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 11

Demographic Profile (2005) – Hispanic Population

36.9% 50.6% 48.7% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Crenshaw District City of Los Angeles Los Angeles County Source: ESRI 2005, ERA

The analysis area contains a lower share of Hispanic population compared to the City of L.A. and L.A. County

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 12

Demographic Profile (2005) – Household Income

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200% Less than $20,000 $20,000 - $34,999 $35,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,000 $100,000 or more Crenshaw as % of City of LA Crenshaw as % of LA County

Source: ESRI 2005, ERA

The analysis area contains a significantly higher share of lower households earning under $35,000 annually compared to the City of L.A. and L.A. County

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 13

Demographic Profile (2005) – Housing Tenure

29% 38% 48% 64% 57% 48% 7% 5% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Crenshaw District City of Los Angeles Los Angeles County Vacant Renter-occupied Owner-occupied

Source: ESRI 2005, ERA

64 percent of the housing units in the analysis area are renter-occupied compared to only 48 percent renter occupied units countywide. 7 percent of total units are vacant

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 14

Demographic Profile – Project Annual Growth 2005-2030

0.78% 0.80% 0.82% 0.84% 0.86% 0.88% 0.90% 0.92% 0.94% 0.96% 0.98% 1.00% Population Households Employment Crenshaw District City of Los Angeles Los Angeles County

Source: ESRI 2005, ERA

SCAG’s long term projections for the analysis area show higher growth rates for population, dwelling units and employment compared to the City of L.A.

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 15

Corridor and District Business Volumes

Crenshaw Corridor Study Area Vicinity Tax Year

  • No. of

Establishments

  • Approx. Revenue

(Mill) 2004 356 $148 2005 362 $153 2006 346 $135 Source: City of Los Angeles, Office of Finance, Division Division Estab Establishments ishments Emp Employees

  • yees

Revenue ($ M evenue ($ Mill ll.) .) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 21 102 4 Construction 120 553 108

  • Fin. Services, Real Estate, Insurance

193 1,304 264 Manufacturing 84 773 73 Mining Retail Trade 576 4,937 506 Services 903 7,402 640 Transportation, Comm., & Utilities 65 809 64 Wholesale Trade 66 591 106 Tot Total 2,028 28 16, 16,471 471 1,765 65 Source: Claritas 2007, Economics Research Associates

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 16

Largest Employer Groups (2007)

Source: Claritas, ERA

Largest Employer Groups

  • 500

1,000 1,500 2,000

Educational Services Eating & Drinking Places Business Services Social Services Health Services Personal Services General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Retail Food Stores Real Estate Apparel & Accessory Stores Special Trade Contractors

Jobs

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 17

Office Market Profile

Total RBA in the 3 Zip Area (90016, 90018 and 90008) is 990k s.f. while the 1-mile ring contains 370k s.f. No new space added during the last decade Most of the office inventory is Class B and Class C space with lower vacancies in Class C buildings West Angeles EDC is adding 45k s.f. of new space

Period Buildings Total RBA

  • Avg. Annual

Vacancy Rate Delivered RBA

  • Avg. FS Rent/s.f./Yr.

2007 YTD 66 992,905 9.4% $2.56 2006 66 992,905 2.0% $1.73 2005 66 992,905 3.6% $1.52 2004 66 992,905 7.1% $1.27 2003 66 992,905 8.2% $1.38 2002 66 992,905 10.3% $1.43 2001 66 992,905 11.1% $1.59 2000 66 992,905 17.3% $1.57 1999 66 992,905 10.8% $1.30 1998 66 992,905 10.1% $1.19 1997 66 992,905 7.7% $1.26

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 18

Retail Market Profile

Period # Bldgs Total RBA Total Vacant SF Total Vacant % Total Net Absorption Direct Average Rate NNN

2007 YTD 148 2,683,611 65,566 2.4% (32,695) $2.69 2006 146 2,677,974 71,406 2.7% 94,918 $3.28 2005 144 2,611,811 73,130 2.8% 18,516 $2.15 2004 143 2,601,810 61,934 2.4% (10,105) 2003 141 2,588,763 55,700 2.2% 19,912 2002 141 2,584,485 30,279 1.2% (58,100) 2001 140 2,571,295 1,500 0.1% 25,409 2000 136 2,480,908 3,125 0.1% 174,553 1999 131 2,375,036 4,875 0.2% 4,724 1998 129 2,369,432 1,500 0.1% 55,106 1997 126 2,315,227 1,625 0.1% Source: CoStar, Economics Research Associates

Total RBA in the 3 Zip Area (90016, 90018 and 90008) is 2.7 million s.f. Total RBA in the 1-mile ring is 1.9 million s.f. (1.2 million s.f. excluding the mall) Only 368k s.f. of retail space has been added in the 3 zip code area since 1997. The $18 Million Coliseum Center is one of the newest developments Several other retail/mixed use projects are planned including a major refurbishment of the Mall

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 19

Housing Market Profile – For Sale Housing

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 20

Housing Market Profile – Rental Housing

Sub Submar arket Inventor Inventory (Bld (Bldgs) Inventor Inventory (uni units) Asking Rent ng Rent $ Vac % Vac % Fr Free R ee Rent nt (mos (mos) Exp Expenses nses %

Inglewood/Crenshaw

412 20,058 926 $ 1.9% 0.200 43%

Mid-City/W Adams

387 15,393 998 $ 2.9% 0.400 42%

South/Central LA

496 14,065 888 $ 3.0% 0.200 42%

Hawthorne

431 16,786 951 $ 2.2% 0.200 42%

Carson/San Pedro

334 15,712 1,121 $ 2.7% 0.400 41%

Mar Vista/Palms

710 27,729 1,429 $ 2.9% 0.300 41%

Hollywood

1,089 50,900 1,361 $ 3.2% 0.400 41%

West LA/Westwood

743 34,750 2,018 $ 1.6% 0.300 41%

Los Angeles Metro Area Totals/Averages

14,275 745,236 1,370 $ 3.4% 0.353 41%

Source: REIS, Economics Research Assoicates

Upper Crenshaw area rents have grown in line with City of L.A. rent control

  • policies. New market rate apartments will not be rent controlled

Crenshaw area apartment rents are lower than regional averages but it also exhibits some of the lowest vacancies Average asking rents are in the $1.00 to $1.08/s.f./month range for 1 to 3 bedroom units. Studio units can command significantly higher rents on a per/s.f. basis

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 21

Demand Estimates – Job Space (Crenshaw District)

20,000 22,000 14,000

  • Low

64,000 60,000 49,000 17,000

  • Mid

80,000 77,000 65,000 47,000

  • High

2025-2030 2020-2025 2015-2020 2010-2015 2007-2010

Source: ERA

5-Year Absorption Estimates (s.f.)

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 22

Demand Estimates – Residential Units (Crenshaw District)

658 727 803 855 491 Low 1,480 1,453 1,405 1,283 622 Mid 1,644 1,635 1,606 1,497 753 High 2025-2030 2020-2025 2015-2020 2010-2015 2007-2010 Rental Units 5-Year Absorption Estimates

Source: ERA

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 23

Demand Estimates – Residential Units (Crenshaw District)

658 595 535 123

  • Low

1,480 1,189 937 409

  • Mid

1,644 1,338 1,070 580

  • High

2025-2030 2020-2025 2015-2020 2010-2015 2007-2010 For Sale Units 5-Year Absorption Estimates

Source: ERA

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 24

Demand Estimates – Retail (Crenshaw District)

Estimated Retail Demand (2007-2020) Additional Capture from Current Residents 65,200 s.f. New Households (Assuming 5,000 new units) 129,200 s.f. Additional Capture from Current Area Draw 50,000 s.f. Total Estimates New Supportable Retail Space (2020) 244,400 s.f.

Source: ERA

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 25

Strategic Issues

Apartment Market evolving into ownership

  • Affordability
  • Market support
  • Retain / Attract younger workforce

Capture an increased share of community serving office space

  • We are a net exporter of jobs
  • Seniors and emerging businesses demand unique services
  • Attract limited medical services
  • Business services

Live work units to enhance residual on-site activity and catalyze entrepreneurial activities Already a cluster of regional serving retail – attract a cluster of destination retail and services capitalizing on existing patronage to the area, new employees, and residents Selective up-front investments in key public improvements – streetscape, landscaping etc., are critical for success

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November 15, 2007 Crenshaw Corridor Strategy Slide 26

QUESTIONS