Covid 19 Performance March 15 to April 21st 2020 Dr.Andrew Black, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Covid 19 Performance March 15 to April 21st 2020 Dr.Andrew Black, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 04, 2023 320 likes •625 views

Covid 19 Performance March 15 to April 21st 2020 Dr.Andrew Black, Digit Ltd, Brunel Business School, GPI April 2020 , Digit Ltd & Brunel Business School 1 Covid 19 Situation Report March/April 20th 2020: by Dr. Andrew. Black Digit Ltd

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SLIDE 1

Covid 19 Performance March 15 to April 21st 2020

Dr.Andrew Black, Digit Ltd, Brunel Business School, GPI April 2020 ,

Digit Ltd & Brunel Business School 1

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SLIDE 2

Covid 19 Situation Report March/April 20th 2020: by Dr. Andrew. Black

Digit Ltd & GPI London 2

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SLIDE 3
  • These slides provide a global overview of the

development of COVID 19, the number of cases, the number of fatalities, and fatality rates.

  • These are shown for 7 main regions.
  • Data is from John Hopkins Covid data archive

Digit Ltd & GPI 3

Introduction

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SLIDE 4

Broad Conclusions I

  • March saw the explosion of Covid out of its original area,

China, and into Europe.

  • Since then Covid has infected the USA. The US now has

the largest number of cases of a single country.

  • The first week of April saw a substantial deterioration in

fatality rates. This is largely a function of the rate of infection, and the type of patients infected

  • Infection rates are higher than originally expected, with a r

(reproduction rate) of between 2.5 and 3.2 (Imperial College).

  • The main centres continue to be Europe , N.America. And

China.

Digit Ltd & GPI London 4

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SLIDE 5

Broad conclusions II

  • Regions such as Africa, S.Asia and S.America

still have small numbers of Covid19 patients

  • Their numbers are growing very fast,
  • The rate of increase in the number of cases is

starting to fall in some regions (Europe, N.America)

  • The absolute number of new cases continues to

rise, or is stabilizing at a high level

Digit Ltd & GPI London 5

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SLIDE 6

Broad Conclusions III: Fatalities

  • There are substantial differences in the

performance of fatalities. The worst performing countries are Spain, Italy, Britain and France.

  • Some countries have markedly better fatality

performance, particularly Germany, Finland, S.Korea, Taiwan and Singapore

  • This is due to a combination of better social

control methods (including testing), and partly due to better legacy medical systems with better equipment levels and standards

Digit Ltd & GPI London 6

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SLIDE 7

Covid Stages: Suggested Sequence

  • The disease is spreading out from its ground zero, China/Hubei province/Wuhan.
  • Stage 1: Few cases, mostly contained. Few fatalities. Virus appears to be under control and is

“trapped”. Person to person transmission relatively low

  • Stage 2: Escape. Covid infects others outside of original areas. Infection clustes occur in densely

populated cities and areas with many vulnerable people (the elderly and those with existing medical conditions). Very rapid growth occurs. Daily growth rate in new cases 30% plus per day

  • Stage 3: Lock downs and introduction of other social measures. Infection rates come down as a

proportion of total cases. However, in absolute number the daily increase can still be rising

  • Stage 4: Stabilization. Lock down starts to work. More testing and protective equipment reduces

cases/fatalities. There is still some overall growth in cases, fatalities stabilize

  • Stage 5: Declines in the number of new cases. Declines in the number of fatalities. Probably

accompanied by reduction in severity of social control measures.

  • Stage 6: Relaxation of social control and distancing measures. Introduction of measures to proect

the vulnerable. Danger of a further second or tertiary infection wave.

Digit Ltd & GPI London 7

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SLIDE 8

Overall Situation April 21st 2020

  • 2.469 million Covid Cases world wide

(0.032% of the global population)

  • 169,961 fatalities
  • A fatality rate of 6.9 % - rising steadily
  • Significant variation in fatality rates:

Digit Ltd & GPI London 8

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SLIDE 9

High Fatality Countries Fatalities % Confirmed Cases Apr 06 and Apr 20

Digit Ltd & GPI London 9

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% Algeria Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas Belgium Congo (Kinshasa) Egypt France Guyana Honduras Hungary Indonesia Italy Liberia Mexico Netherlands San Marino Spain Sudan Sweden Syria Togo Trinidad and Tobago United Kingdom Zimbabwe Bangladesh Colombia Mali Antigua and Barbuda Honduras

Highest Fatality Rate Countries Apr 06 and Apr 20th Compared

Fatality Rate Apr 06th Case-Fatality 20 Apr

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SLIDE 10

High Fatality Countries (Death traps)

  • Many of them have fatality rates over double the

global average

  • European countries perform badly – higher

proportion of elderly patients ?

  • List is not stable. During April most European

countries in this group performed worse

  • Some developing countries dropped out of this

list, e.g. Bangladesh, Colombia

  • Most of the new entrants are from outside of

Europe.

Digit Ltd & GPI London 10

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SLIDE 11

Low Fatality Countries (Less that 25%

  • f the global fatality average):A varied list.
  • Australia
  • Israel
  • Chile
  • Kuwait
  • Latvia
  • Malaysia
  • New Zealand
  • Russia
  • Singapore
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Some are at early stages
  • Some have better social

control systems

  • Some have poor records
  • AsiaPac countries well

represented.

  • Experience with SARS

and MERS acted as a wake up call.

Digit Ltd & GPI London 11

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SLIDE 12

During March shift in centre of Gravity away from AsiaPac, towards Europe & N.America

  • A big rise in share of

N.America.

  • Europe remains the hot

spot: its relative share declined slightly in early April

  • AsiaPac share fell steadily
  • Numbers in Africa and

S.Asia still low, rising very rapidly

Digit Ltd & GPI London 12

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

s.Asia Europe MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS ASIAPAC N.AMERICA

REGIONAL SHARE COVID CASES MARCH/APRILS 2020

Share March 15 Share March 31 Share April 20

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SLIDE 13

Fatalities lag the new cases: Europe still the main centre for fatalities

Digit Ltd & GPI London 13

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00%

s.Asia Europe MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS ASIAPAC N.AMERICA

REGIONAL SHARE COVID FATALITIES MARCH/APRILS 2020

Share March 15 Share March 31 Share April 20

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SLIDE 14

After initial high volatility, daily growth rates of new cases settling down AsiaPac cases still growing

Digit Ltd & GPI London 14

CIS AsiaPac Eur N.Amer

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%

Daily Compound Growth Rates COVID cases by Region: Major Regions

Europe MENA ASIAPAC N.AMERICA

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SLIDE 15

Daily growth rates in higher income regions are decelerating

  • Daily Growth rates of new cases are falling
  • They are still in the region of 5% per day,

which is still a high rate

  • This will keep pressure on health systems

Digit Ltd & GPI London 15

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SLIDE 16

Daily growth in new Cases around 10% in lower income regions

Digit Ltd & GPI London 16

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%

Daily Compound Growth Rates COVID cases by Lower Income Regions

s.Asia MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS

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SLIDE 17

Daily growth rates in new cases now higher in the lower income regions

  • Still some volatility in the growth rates
  • Unclear whether the lock down measures are
  • working. Many countries still at stages 1 and 2
  • f the cycle

Digit Ltd & GPI London 17

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SLIDE 18

Number of New Cases Still Growing Very Fast. Between 20 and 30k per day in Europe and N.America. On the ground the crisis persists

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 17-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 19-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 22-Mar-20 23-Mar-20 24-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 26-Mar-20 27-Mar-20 28-Mar-20 29-Mar-20 30-Mar-20 31-Mar-20 01-Apr-20 02-Apr-20 03-Apr-20 04-Apr-20 05-Apr-20 06-Apr-20 07-Apr-20 08-Apr-20 09-Apr-20 10-Apr-20 11-Apr-20 12-Apr-20 13-Apr-20 14-Apr-20 15-Apr-20 16-Apr-20 17-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 19-Apr-20 20-Apr-20

DAILY INCREASE IN COVID CASES BY REGION MARCH/APRIL 2020

s.Asia Europe MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS ASIAPAC N.AMERICA

Digit Ltd & GPI London 18

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SLIDE 19

Crisis severity unequal around the world

  • Europe and N.America are both experiencing

around 30k new cases per day

  • Covid 19 has essentially “escaped” in these

regions.

  • Their experience very differnt from that of

AsiaPac (China)

  • Lower income regions are experiencing growth in

new cases less than 10k per day

  • There are signs that the absolute number of new

cases is still accelerating in CIS and S.America.

Digit Ltd & GPI London 19

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SLIDE 20

AsiaPac eclipsed by Europe and N.America in terms of Share of Covid Fatalities

Digit Ltd & GPI London 20

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00%

s.Asia Europe MENA AFRICA S.AMERICA CIS ASIAPAC N.AMERICA

REGIONAL SHARE COVID FATALITIES MARCH/APRILS 2020

Share March 15 Share March 31 Share April 20

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SLIDE 21

Covid Fatalities (mid April 2020)

  • Europe the global hot spot, followed by

N.America

  • AsiaPac and MENA shares are falling steeply
  • S.America, S.Asia & CIS likely to be entering

accelerating growth phase

  • Africa may be the last continent to experience

rapid increase in Covid cases & fatalities

  • Fatality numbers lag the number of new cases

Digit Ltd & GPI London 21

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SLIDE 22

Comparisons with Spanish Flu

  • Estimated that 25% of the global population caught the

Spanish Flu. Global population then was just over 1 billion.

  • Today’s global population is 7.8 billion.
  • If Covid infection rate similar to Spanish flu, this could

lead to as many as 1.95 billion cases

  • If fatality rates remain at current levels (4.84%) , this

would then lead to 93.6 million fatalities

  • If the fatality rate is closer to 2%, then the expected

number of fatalities would be in the region of 49 million.

  • That is the potential scale of the problem.

Digit Ltd & Brunel Business School 22

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SLIDE 23

Following slide shows changes in fatality performance by countries to April 6th compared with March

  • Many more countries show a deterioration in

fatalities.

  • Improving performance on relatively small
  • countries. Trends are volatile and will change.
  • Countries included only where there is a a

continuous record of fatalities since early March.

  • Global fatality rate continues to rise.
  • National fatality rate variations substantial. Some

are considerably more effective in saving lives than others.

Digit Ltd & GPI London 23

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SLIDE 24

Digit Ltd & GPI London 24

COUNTRY Most Recent Fatality Rate worse or better than average COUNTRIES BETTER 18 COUNTRIES WORSE 61 Afghanistan BETTER Albania WORSE Algeria WORSE Andorra WORSE Argentina WORSE Armenia WORSE Aruba Australia WORSE Austria WORSE Azerbaijan BETTER Bahrain BETTER Bangladesh BETTER Belgium WORSE Bosnia and Herzegovina BETTER Brazil WORSE Bulgaria WORSE Burkina Faso WORSE Canada BETTER Chile WORSE China BETTER Colombia WORSE Costa Rica BETTER Croatia BETTER Cuba WORSE Cyprus BETTER Czech Rep WORSE Dem Rep of Congo WORSE Denmark WORSE Diamond Princess WORSE Dominican Republic WORSE Ecuador WORSE Egypt WORSE Finland WORSE France WORSE Germany WORSE Ghana BETTER Greece WORSE

COUNTRY Most Recent Fatality Rate worse or better than average Hungary WORSE Iceland WORSE India WORSE Indonesia BETTER Iran BETTER Iraq BETTER Ireland WORSE Israel WORSE Italy WORSE Jamaica WORSE Japan BETTER Lebanon WORSE Lithuania WORSE Luxembourg WORSE Malaysia WORSE Netherlands WORSE North Macedonia WORSE Norway WORSE Pakistan WORSE Panama WORSE Paraguay BETTER Peru WORSE Philippines BETTER Poland WORSE Portugal WORSE Romania WORSE Russia WORSE San Marino WORSE Serbia WORSE Singapore WORSE Slovenia WORSE South Korea WORSE Spain WORSE Sweden WORSE Switzerland WORSE Taiwan WORSE Thailand WORSE Tunisia WORSE Turkey WORSE UK WORSE Ukraine WORSE United Arab Emirates BETTER US WORSE

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SLIDE 25

Infection Rates & Cumulative Covid cases Hypthetical Pandemic Cycle

Digit Ltd & GPI London 25

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000

  • 30.00%
  • 20.00%
  • 10.00%

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% St art po int 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 Number of new cases per day Daily Growth Rate (Assumed) Time (Days)

Assumed Daily Infection Rates Covid (LHS) and Cumulative cases (RHS)

Assumed Infection Growth rate (LHS) Cumulative Net number of cases RHS

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SLIDE 26

Summary & Comments

  • Model assumes daily growth rates rising to 40%, before

dropping back, fairly quickly to lower daily rates (blue line).

  • Red line shows the number of new daily cases of Covid.
  • Even as the rate of infection declines, so the absolute

number of new cases continues to rise

  • The situation only improves when the rate of new cases

goes to zero, and then starts to fall.

  • Note, there are still new cases appearing in China – at a

very low rate.

  • Negative rates can be thought of as recovery of survivors

reducing the overall number of cases

Digit Ltd & GPI London 26

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SLIDE 27

Relevance to actual Covid

  • Daily rates of new patients have been in excess of 25%
  • This example creates a peak number of patients/cases

as 3.5 million

  • This is the equivalent of 4.5% of UK’s population. If

achieved this would be a good result.

  • This scenario plays out over 11 weeks.
  • The zig-zag rate of decline is a function of the reducing

daily rates.

  • Following chart shows development of the cumulative

number of cases over the same time period

Digit Ltd & GPI London 27

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SLIDE 28

Regions Defined

  • N.America: USA & Canada
  • S.America: S.America + Caribbean+Mexico
  • Europe: East and West Europe
  • CIS: Russia, Ukraine, former parts of the USSR, the

“stans” in central Asia, Mongolia

  • MENA: Middle East and North Africa. Includes

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria+ N.Africa

  • AsiaPac: All of Asia, and Pacific region. Includes China
  • S.Asia: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, smaller nations in

region + Indian Ocean islands

  • Africa: Africa south of the Sahara.

Digit Ltd & Brunel Business School 28

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SLIDE 29

On-going issues with data quality

  • Most countries have reported Covid cases. Not all of

them have reported consistently (on a daily basis)

  • Reporting on fatalities much worse than for the number
  • f cases.
  • Difficulties with definitions even in advanced countries.

Are COVID deaths outside of hospital included ? Should the right measure be the number of deaths from pneumonia ?

  • Are deaths being “correctly” ascribed to Covid 19?
  • It is highly likely that both the number of cases and the

numbe of fatalities are under-estimates. The true picture is worse than that shown here.

Digit Ltd & GPI London 29