Counting the Population M More Accurately using A t l i - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Counting the Population M More Accurately using A t l i Administrative Data Administrative Data Understanding Population Trends and Processes: Building Capacity through User-Academic Collaboration City Hall, London 9 October 2009 9 October 2009 Les Mayhew (lesmayhew@googlemail.com) Gillian Harper (harpergill@googlemail.com ) Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd. Cass Business School

FAQ FAQs � What is the population of my community, council or PCT area? � What is the IMD for this housing estate? � What is the IMD for this housing estate? � How many single parents live in social housing and are on benefits? � How many nurseries are there within pram pushing � How many nurseries are there within pram pushing distance of households with young children? � Are services accessible to those that need them and how much unmet demand is out there? much unmet demand is out there? � Who needs to have face to face contact and where should face-to-face caller centres be located? � Are there special groups that need more personalised � Are there special groups that need more personalised services and how many are there (e.g. older people, single parent households, ethnic groups)? Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

Limitations of Official Population Statistics � Census on every ten years with 2-year dissemination delay � Geographical units are inflexible and/or inappropriate � No user control over definitions � 2001 address and response problems � Poor at identifying special groups (e.g. BME P t id tif i i l ( BME communities) Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

L Local Needs and Challenges l N d d Ch ll � Rapidly changing populations � Need for better information on migration N d f b tt i f ti i ti � Under-counting reduces monetary allocations to LAs/PCTs ll ti t LA /PCT � Resources may be misallocated locally based on out of date data and poor spatial b d t f d t d t d ti l granularity � Services may be misdirected or S i b i di t d inappropriately targeted Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

P liti Political context l t t � Treasury Sub-Committee 2008 recognised weaknesses of current i d k f t Census � Current MYE are not fit for purpose “National policies need to be informed b by good quality local statistics” d lit l l t ti ti ” Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

An Alternative – Administrative Data � Using data linking techniques � Routinely collected administrative data � Routinely collected administrative data � Household or individual level � Flexible boundaries � Flexible boundaries � Up-to-date and repeatable Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

M th d l Methodology � Data records linked together by address after standardisation to a dd ft t d di ti t property gazetteer � All records for each address cross- referenced and assessed for who is current � Sequential logical assumptions used � Sequential logical assumptions used to include or exclude people Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

P i Principles i l On GP register and other data sets but no other data sets but no linkable address or valid address On the GP register but not register but not the LPG / CAG On other data bases but no valid address valid address On 1+ On the data sets GP and LPG register and the LPG Not on GP register but Not on on 1+ data any data sets and the sets and the set LPG/CAG Vacant Concept of a ‘confirmed minimum population’ addresses Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

Principles ~ concept of a p p truth table A B C | ( A | B ) & C A B C | ( A | B ) & C ------------------------------- number of decision ABC people A/R confirmed unconfirmed comments 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 R 000 0 R 0 0 empty set 0 0 1 | 0 0 0 0 1 R 001 50 R 0 50 empty property 0 1 0 | 0 1 1 0 0 R 010 30 R 0 30 no valid address 0 1 1 | 0 1 1 | 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 A A 011 200 A 200 0 confirmed 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 0 0 R 100 10 R 0 10 no valid address 1 0 1 | 1 1 0 1 1 A 101 80 A 80 0 confirmed 1 1 0 | 1 1 1 0 0 R 110 70 R 0 70 no valid address 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 111 100 A 100 0 confirmed A total t t l 540 540 380 380 160 160 A - accept R - reject A on any other data base B on GP register C assigned a UPRN (living at a recognised address) Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

Algorithm for estimating population g g p p from administrative data Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

T Truth table for stage 1b th t bl f t 1b r p a b r&p&(a|(~a&b)) 0 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 | 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 | 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 Stage 1b: assigned UPRN 0 0 1 1 | 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 | 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 & on GP register & most recent registered at UPRN 0 1 0 1 | 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 or related to most recent registered at UPRN or related to most recent registered at UPRN ∧ ∧ ∨ ¬ ∧ 0 1 1 0 | 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 r p ( a ( a b )) 0 1 1 1 | 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 | 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 | 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 | 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 Residuals (unconfirmed cases) 1 0 1 1 | 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 | 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 | 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 Confirmed cases Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

Stages St � Decide snapshot and data time windows � Clean and geo-reference all data sets Cl d f ll d t t � Start process of confirming people at each address according to rules of algorithm dd di t l f l ith � Each category has a set of rules and weights i ht � Add births and remove deaths � Assess high occupancy and vacancy rates Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

V lid ti Validation � Reasonability checks � Comparable estimates and trends C bl ti t d t d � ‘Ground truthing’ � Look at relevant national statistics (e.g. child benefit counts) � Take more than one snapshot Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

R Requirements i t � Requires understanding of the scope of each dataset each dataset � Originally collected for different purposes � Requires partnership work and data sharing � An understanding of data protection laws � Data sharing protocols � Data sharing protocols Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

Service Planning and g Delivery � Population is linked to a wealth of socio- economic and health information from economic and health information from source datasets by address � Segment the population and profile any � Segment the population and profile any user-defined area or subject � Identify gaps in need and small populations � Identify gaps in need and small populations at risk � Impossible with aggregated official statistics � Impossible with aggregated official statistics Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

H How data base is structured d t b i t t d communicty Social ID Age SEX2 UPRN GRE GRN PCT code council code Housing CTBen CTBand Occupancy 1 27.16 F 200003441197 533738 175215 1 1 1 1 A 5 2 59.86 F 200003441197 533738 175215 1 1 1 1 A 5 3 60.02 M 200003441197 533738 175215 1 1 1 1 A 5 4 30.94 M 200003441197 533738 175215 1 1 1 1 A 5 5 26.82 M 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 0 0 G 9 6 99.69 M 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 0 0 G 9 7 25.09 F 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 0 0 G 9 8 31.76 F 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 0 0 G 9 9 9 84 41 84.41 F F 200003450606 200003450606 532788 532788 174720 174720 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 G G 9 9 10 84.83 M 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 0 0 G 9 11 28.76 M 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 0 0 G 9 12 23.91 F 200003451590 533921 171906 1 1 0 0 E 3 13 22.05 M 200003451590 533921 171906 1 1 0 0 E 3 14 55.97 M 200003451590 533921 171906 1 1 0 0 E 3 15 25.58 M 200003451501 534282 172322 1 1 0 0 F 4 16 32.43 M 200003451439 534019 172233 1 1 0 1 A 1 17 59.68 F 200003433759 533839 171572 1 1 0 0 C 1 18 40.04 M 200003451395 533952 171548 1 1 0 0 C 6 19 36.48 F 200003451395 533952 171548 1 1 0 0 C 6 20 20 43 98 43.98 M M 200003451313 200003451313 534105 534105 172388 172388 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 E E 1 1 Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk

1 - Validating and comparing g p g results with other sources 25,000 ONS 2007 nkm nkm MYEs GLA 2009 20,000 240,508 240 508 223 148 223,148 237,601 237 601 ONS 2007 MYE ONS 2007 MYE GLA 2009 15,000 opulation po 10,000 5,000 0 0 - 4 5-9 10- 15 - 20 - 25 - 30 - 35 - 40 - 45 - 50 - 55 - 60 - 65 - 70 - 75 - 80 - 85 - 90 + 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 age group London Borough of Greenwich ~ 2009 Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd www.nkm.org.uk