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Counting the Population M More Accurately using A t l i Administrative Data Administrative Data Understanding Population Trends and Processes: Building Capacity through User-Academic Collaboration City Hall, London 9 October 2009 9

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SLIDE 1

Counting the Population M A t l i More Accurately using Administrative Data Administrative Data

Understanding Population Trends and Processes: Building Capacity through User-Academic Collaboration City Hall, London 9 October 2009 9 October 2009

Les Mayhew (lesmayhew@googlemail.com) Gillian Harper (harpergill@googlemail.com)

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd. Cass Business School

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SLIDE 2

FAQ FAQs

What is the population of my community, council or PCT

area?

What is the IMD for this housing estate? What is the IMD for this housing estate? How many single parents live in social housing and are

  • n benefits?

How many nurseries are there within pram pushing How many nurseries are there within pram pushing

distance of households with young children?

Are services accessible to those that need them and how

much unmet demand is out there? much unmet demand is out there?

Who needs to have face to face contact and where

should face-to-face caller centres be located?

Are there special groups that need more personalised Are there special groups that need more personalised

services and how many are there (e.g. older people, single parent households, ethnic groups)?

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 3

Limitations of Official Population Statistics

Census on every ten years with 2-year

dissemination delay

Geographical units are inflexible and/or

inappropriate

No user control over definitions 2001 address and response problems

P t id tif i i l ( BME

Poor at identifying special groups (e.g. BME

communities)

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 4

L l N d d Ch ll Local Needs and Challenges

Rapidly changing populations

N d f b tt i f ti i ti

Need for better information on migration Under-counting reduces monetary

ll ti t LA /PCT allocations to LAs/PCTs

Resources may be misallocated locally

b d t f d t d t d ti l based on out of date data and poor spatial granularity S i b i di t d

Services may be misdirected or

inappropriately targeted

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 5

P liti l t t Political context

Treasury Sub-Committee 2008

i d k f t recognised weaknesses of current Census

Current MYE are not fit for purpose

“National policies need to be informed b d lit l l t ti ti ” by good quality local statistics”

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 6

An Alternative – Administrative Data

Using data linking techniques Routinely collected administrative data Routinely collected administrative data Household or individual level Flexible boundaries Flexible boundaries Up-to-date and repeatable

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 7

M th d l Methodology

Data records linked together by

dd ft t d di ti t address after standardisation to a property gazetteer

All records for each address cross-

referenced and assessed for who is current

Sequential logical assumptions used Sequential logical assumptions used

to include or exclude people

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 8

P i i l Principles

On GP register and

  • ther data sets but no

On the GP register but not

  • ther data sets but no

linkable address or valid address register but not the LPG / CAG On other data bases but no valid address On the GP register and the valid address

On 1+ data sets and LPG

LPG Not on any data Not on GP register but

  • n 1+ data

sets and the set sets and the LPG/CAG

Vacant addresses

Concept of a ‘confirmed minimum population’

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 9

Principles ~ concept of a p p truth table

A B C | ( A | B ) & C A B C | ( A | B ) & C

  • 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 0

R 0 0 1 | 0 0 0 0 1 R 0 1 0 | 0 1 1 0 0 R 0 1 1 | 0 1 1 1 1 A

ABC number of people decision A/R confirmed unconfirmed comments 000 R empty set 001 50 R 50 empty property 010 30 R 30 no valid address

0 1 1 | 0 1 1 1 1 A 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 0 0 R 1 0 1 | 1 1 0 1 1 A 1 1 0 | 1 1 1 0 0 R 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 A

011 200 A 200 confirmed 100 10 R 10 no valid address 101 80 A 80 confirmed 110 70 R 70 no valid address 111 100 A 100 confirmed t t l 540 380 160 total 540 380 160

A - accept R - reject

A on any other data base B on GP register C assigned a UPRN (living at a recognised address)

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 10

Algorithm for estimating population g g p p from administrative data

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 11

T th t bl f t 1b Truth table for stage 1b

r p a b r&p&(a|(~a&b))

0 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 Stage 1b: assigned UPRN & on GP register & most recent registered at UPRN

  • r related to most recent registered at UPRN

0 0 0 1 | 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 | 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 | 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 | 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 | 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1

  • r related to most recent registered at UPRN

)) ( ( b a a p r ∧ ¬ ∨ ∧ ∧

0 1 1 0 | 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 | 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 | 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 | 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0

Residuals (unconfirmed cases)

1 0 1 0 | 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 | 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 | 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 | 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1

Confirmed cases

1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 12

St Stages

Decide snapshot and data time windows

Cl d f ll d t t

Clean and geo-reference all data sets Start process of confirming people at each

dd di t l f l ith address according to rules of algorithm

Each category has a set of rules and

i ht weights

Add births and remove deaths Assess high occupancy and vacancy rates

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 13

V lid ti Validation

Reasonability checks

C bl ti t d t d

Comparable estimates and trends ‘Ground truthing’ Look at relevant national statistics (e.g.

child benefit counts)

Take more than one snapshot

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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R i t Requirements

Requires understanding of the scope of

each dataset each dataset

Originally collected for different purposes Requires partnership work and data

sharing

An understanding of data protection laws Data sharing protocols Data sharing protocols

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 15

Service Planning and g Delivery

Population is linked to a wealth of socio-

economic and health information from economic and health information from source datasets by address

Segment the population and profile any Segment the population and profile any

user-defined area or subject

Identify gaps in need and small populations Identify gaps in need and small populations

at risk

Impossible with aggregated official statistics Impossible with aggregated official statistics

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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H d t b i t t d How data base is structured

ID Age SEX2 UPRN GRE GRN PCT code communicty council code Social Housing CTBen CTBand Occupancy 1 27.16 F 200003441197 533738 175215 1 1 1 1 A 5 2 59.86 F 200003441197 533738 175215 1 1 1 1 A 5 3 60.02 M 200003441197 533738 175215 1 1 1 1 A 5 4 30.94 M 200003441197 533738 175215 1 1 1 1 A 5 5 26.82 M 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 G 9 6 99.69 M 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 G 9 7 25.09 F 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 G 9 8 31.76 F 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 G 9 9 84 41 F 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 G 9 9 84.41 F 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 G 9 10 84.83 M 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 G 9 11 28.76 M 200003450606 532788 174720 1 2 G 9 12 23.91 F 200003451590 533921 171906 1 1 E 3 13 22.05 M 200003451590 533921 171906 1 1 E 3 14 55.97 M 200003451590 533921 171906 1 1 E 3 15 25.58 M 200003451501 534282 172322 1 1 F 4 16 32.43 M 200003451439 534019 172233 1 1 1 A 1 17 59.68 F 200003433759 533839 171572 1 1 C 1 18 40.04 M 200003451395 533952 171548 1 1 C 6 19 36.48 F 200003451395 533952 171548 1 1 C 6 20 43 98 M 200003451313 534105 172388 1 1 E 1 20 43.98 M 200003451313 534105 172388 1 1 E 1

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 17

1 - Validating and comparing g p g results with other sources

20,000 25,000 nkm ONS 2007 MYE

nkm ONS 2007 MYEs GLA 2009 240 508 223 148 237 601

15,000

  • pulation

ONS 2007 MYE GLA 2009

240,508 223,148 237,601

5,000 10,000 po

0 - 4 5-9 10- 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89 90 +

age group

London Borough of Greenwich ~ 2009

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 18

2 – Partitioning Populations g p by age sex and occupancy

75 79 80-84 85-89 90+ age not known living alone 2 person household 3 person household 50 54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 4 person household 5 person household 6+ person household

Indicative living arrangements by age group and gender

25 29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54

age

1 4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29

  • 15000
  • 10000
  • 5000

5000 10000 15000 Under 1 1-4

(males) population (females)

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 19

3 H h ld Cl ifi ti 3 – Household Classification

First tier household classification based on household demography household demography and 81 sub-types

  • The percentage of households living in

p g g local authority housing by household type and size

  • Type D households older people living
  • Type D households, older people living

alone, have the highest percentage in local authority housing, at 34.8%.

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 20

4 H i ti 4 – Housing regeneration

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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5- Regeneration using risk g g ladders

y = 0.9818x + 2.3766 R2 = 0.9252 60 70 80 90 100 d % 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 predicted

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

  • bserved %
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SLIDE 22

4 – Access to Services in LB Tower Hamlets

Tower Tower Hamlets has the lowest take lowest take up of sight tests by the 60+ population in London

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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4- Impact of poor access on p p sight test take-up

In terms of risk factors, we found that:

  • People living in private tenure are

80 90 0/6/09 Bangladeshi

  • People living in private tenure are

1.1 times more likely to live more than a 10-minute walk from an eye test provider

40 50 60 70 between 1/1/09 and 30 g non-Bangladeshi

  • 1.6 times if not of Bangladeshi origin
  • 1.1 times if living alone

10 20 30 % having eye test b Under 1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 age group

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 24

4 – Sight test take-up is highly g p g y sensitive to geographical access

35.00 40.00 distance from 60+ all ages

Take-up of sight tests falls from

20.00 25.00 30.00 test living at given d rest centre g

35% of 60+ per to only 10% after

  • ne kilometre

5 00 10.00 15.00 rsons receiving eye near

and this is main reason for low take-up in Tower

0.00 5.00 0-0.09 0.1- 0.19 0.2- 0.29 0.3- 0.39 0.4- 0.49 0.5- 0.59 0.6- 0.69 0.7- 0.79 0.8- 0.89 0.9- 0.99 1-1.09 1.1- 1.19 1.2- 1.29 distance from nearest eye test provider (kms) % of pe

Hamlets For general population p p shrinkage is 13% to 10% after 1km

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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5 - Time space maps – GP p p access in Brent

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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6- Ethnicity patterns y p – LB Greenwich

The density of y Nigerian population by 0.5 x 0.5 km grid square in LB of Greenwich

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 27

6 Ethnicity patterns y p – multiple ethnicities

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 28

7 -B&D ‘Nearest neighbour 7 -B&D Nearest neighbour analysis’ y

Nearest neighbour statistic for measuring how 2.15

Black (other) 0.54 Black Caribbean 0.7

measuring how closely points (households cluster) on a scale 1.0

White British 0.43 Asian 0.55

) from 0 to 2.15 Example based on Barking and Dagenham

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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SLIDE 29

Do households of similar ethnicity cluster?

Blue dots: 2-plus times expected concentration of black (other) households Green dots: between 1 G ee do s be ee and 2 times expected concentration Yellow dots: 1 or less Yellow dots: 1 or less times expected concentration If ‘black other’ households were distributed at random we would expect them to be we would expect them to be 38 metres apart on average (actual average 21 metres)

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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Wh t if ? What if……..?

  • The current cost of the Census over a 10-year cycle is

£500m (£250m Census itself)

  • Using administrative data equivalent would cost circa

“We believe that any f t

  • Using administrative data equivalent would cost circa

£50m reducing over time

  • If updated annually the 10-year cost would be £500m i.e.

same future census should be justified in

  • Improved timeliness and accuracy and granularity would

yield up to 10% in savings on local authority, health services and policing

  • This could be ploughed back to improve quality and

justified in cost-benefit terms” Treasury

  • This could be ploughed back to improve quality and

capacity or clawed back for other uses

  • Savings would accrue through better targeting of

resources e.g. better located and designed services y sub- committee

  • This in turn would lead to greater efficiency via less

hospital beds, lower crime rates, less benefit fraud, improved equity and fairness, greater cohesion in society

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk

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END END

Mayhew Harper Associates Ltd

www.nkm.org.uk