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Counterterrorism/ Counterinsurgency Class 8 - August 27 How can - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Counterterrorism/ Counterinsurgency Class 8 - August 27 How can - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Counterterrorism/ Counterinsurgency Class 8 - August 27 How can governments stop insurgents or terrorists? How can governments stop insurgents or terrorists? Use force Punitive military tactics Repression Police measures
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How can governments stop insurgents or terrorists?
- Use force
○ Punitive military tactics ○ Repression ○ Police measures
- Negotiate with some, use force on others.
○ Work with moderates to punish extremists ○ Resolve financial grievances.
Each tactic has benefits and drawbacks.
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Military tactics
- Military action against
insurgents/ terrorist sanctuaries.
- Drone strikes and special
forces assassinations against suspected terrorists.
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Repression
- Prevent organization by
restricting social rights.
- Suspension of habeas
corpus, censorship, detention without cause or prosecution, guilt by association, torture.
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Police measures
- Preventive, especially for
terrorist attacks.
- Wiretapping, body
scanners, urban surveillance, sting
- perations, NSA, etc.
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Drawbacks?
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Drawbacks?
- May be effective in short term, but creates
more support for violence in long-term.
- May play into terrorists’ hands.
- Creates backlash, especially in
democracies.
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Some Concessions: Kydd and Walter
- What case do they look at?
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Some Concessions: Kydd and Walter
- What case do they look at?
○ Israel and Palestine: ○ Negotiations between Israel and PLO with Hamas as spoiler. ○ Extremists will disrupt negotiations to obtain their ideal point. ○ Only effective if moderates seen as strong and trustworthy a priori.
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Terrorism upends trust in strong moderates
- Weak moderates are not expected to do
much, as it is (PLO 1994)
- Strong moderates that fail to stop attacks will
lead to a loss of faith in negotiation (1996, 2001).
○ Moderates are seen as exploiting good will of population (Israel) through negotiations and simultaneously backing terrorism.
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Policy Implication?
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Policy Implication?
Governments must negotiate with credible
- moderates. Moderates should be responsible
for reeling in extremists to maintain trust...or just pay the extremists off.
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Another example: Sons of Iraq
- US pays Sunni tribesmen in
Iraq to oppose Al-Qaeda in Iraq insurgents.
- Problem: Group falls apart
after US withdrawal.
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Concession 2: Resolve Grievances
- Berman et al. 2011
- Financial transfers can make people less
likely to support violence.
- How is this measured?
- Any issues with findings?
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Concession Drawbacks
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Concession Drawbacks
- Moderates can lose to
extremists.
○ Ex. ISIS destroys Sons
- f Iraq
- Insurgents might not
want financial transfers.
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Discussion: What sounds like the best approach to dealing with insurgency? Terrorism?
Is any one approach best? Should a combination be used? Can military occupations successfully reduce violence?
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Afghanistan and Chechnya
Cases
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Afghanistan: Background
- Multi-ethnic,
traditionally decentralized.
- War, foreign
- ccupation since 1979.
- Taliban rule 1996-2001
- US invades in 2001.
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US empowers Northern Alliance
- Mostly Uzbek, Tajik and Northern Pashtun-
supported.
- Taliban return in 2004 as fighting force.
- Obama introduces ‘Afghan Surge’ in 2009.
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U.S. Tactics used to subdue Taliban
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U.S. Tactics used to subdue Taliban
- Training local security forces.
- Attempting to convince locals to support
Afghan government and not Taliban.
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Problems U.S. encountered...
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What, if anything, can the US do to end Taliban insurgency?
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Chechnya...you know the story, right?
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What were Russian tactics during first Chechen War?
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What were Russian tactics during first Chechen War?
- Conventional, designed as show of force.
- Chechens designed for war of attrition,
create low morale among Russian troops.
- What was the effect?
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What were Russian tactics during the Second Chechen war?
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What were Russian tactics during the Second Chechen war?
- Morale training for troops before conflict.
- Radical Chechen fighters mobilized support.
- Increased radicalization through targeting of
civilians.
- Swayed secular moderates to join
government and fight insurgents.
- Insurgents dispersed to neighboring regions.
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