Coronavirus: Impacts on China Petrochemical Industry Ann Sun, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Feb 01, 2023 347 likes •717 views

Coronavirus: Impacts on China Petrochemical Industry Ann Sun, Rachel Qian On behalf of ICIS Petchem Analytics, Asia 2 April 2020 Fragile markets are bracing for the epic global volatility - Prices of key petrochemical markets in Asia have

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Coronavirus: Impacts on China Petrochemical Industry

Ann Sun, Rachel Qian On behalf of ICIS Petchem Analytics, Asia 2 April 2020

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Fragile markets are bracing for the epic global volatility

Prices of key petrochemical markets in Asia have fallen to their lowest since the 2008 global financial crisis
Crude oil price slumps

Data source: ICIS

Global IPEX vs Brent

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Agenda

Date 3

Coronavirus' impact on China end-use consumption Interactions with China petrochemical industry Value chain zoom-in of impacts analysis 01 02 03

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Coronavirus' impact on China end-use consumption

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Thousand person

China Rest of the world

What’s the story of China?

Jan 23 Wuhan travel ban & Luna new year holiday Jan 27 Holiday extend to Feb 2 Mar 11 Hubei resumption WHO declares pandemic Feb 10 Resumption (Outsides Hubei)

Data source: CEIC, World Health Organisation

(COVID-2019: No of Confirmed Patients: To-Date)

PRODUCTION SHUTDOWN (OUTSIDES HUBEI) OPERATION RATE INCREASE GRADUALLY LABOR SHORTAGE LOGISTIC CONSTRAINS PRODUCTION SHUTDOWN (HUBEI) PETROCHEMICAL OUTPUT CUT INVENTORY RISE

January February March

MARKET DEVELOPMENT

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2020 starts with a short, sharp, recession Q1

6 Date Presentation title

China COVID-19 outbreak China COVID-19 ease Global COVID-19 outbreak Global COVID-19 ease

Consumables consumption loss
Inventory rise
Vessel availability difficulty
Potential credit problem
Circulation within the domestic

economy to accelerate

Global supply chain recovery
Petrochemical capacity expansion

concentrated

Production recovery
Destocking activities
Global supply chain disruption
Facing second-round outbreak risk
Stimulus policies expectation

Sales & Production disruption Production compensation & Exports decline Consumption & Exports recovery

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Potentially 3% GDP growth in 2020?

11% 31% 58%

Supportive guidance policy published on 13 Mar

2019 share

Consumption

Take time to heal

“New infrastructure” is one new direction, including 5G, big data, AI, etc.

Investment

Last choice to drive growth

STORIES ABOUT GDP

5.5% growth needed according to the 13th Five-Year Plan
2020 target setting postponed
Structure changing

Data source: CEIC, China National Bureau of Statistics, ICIS

Increased the export tax rebate from 20 Mar

Net export

At a risk amid pandemic

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Interactions with China petrochemical industry

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Another key challenge on global petrochemical industry

booming capacity

Data source: ICIS Supply & demand database

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Value chain zoom-in of impacts analysis

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OLEFINS & DERIVATIVES

Amber Liu

amber.liu@icis.com

Amy Yu

amy.yu@icis.com

Joey Zhou

joey.zhou@icis.com

Lina Xu

lina.xu@icis.com

AROMATICS & DERIVATIVES

Jenny Yi

jenny.yi@icis.com

Jimmy Zhang

Jimmy.zhang@icis.com

METHONAL & GLYCOLS

Rachel Qian

rachel. qian@icis.com

Ann Sun

ann.sun@icis.com

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It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.

Charles Dickens

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Q&A

Thank you

Ann.sun@icis.com +86-21-5155 0851

Rachel.qian@icis.com +86-21-5155 0263