Connecting E-Hailing to Mass Transit Platform Marco Nie 1 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Connecting E-Hailing to Mass Transit Platform

Marco Nie 1

1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University

Transportation Center Seminar Series, Northwestern University, 2016

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Outline

1

Introduction

2

CREDIT

3

Hybrid design

4

Results

5

Conclusions

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Challenges

Chronic traffic congestion (Over $ 100 billion/year for wasted time and fuel in the US)

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Challenges

Elevated environment impacts of travel (about a quarter of green house gas emissions)

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Challenges

Added vulnerability to energy insecurity (60% petroleum in the US)

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Challenges

Limited mobility options for those who cannot drive.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Towards sustainable transportation

My research has been focused on developing solutions for sustainable transportation. Specifically, my research profile in the past five years features:

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Towards sustainable transportation

My research has been focused on developing solutions for sustainable transportation. Specifically, my research profile in the past five years features: Promoting alternative fuel vehicles;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Towards sustainable transportation

My research has been focused on developing solutions for sustainable transportation. Specifically, my research profile in the past five years features: Promoting alternative fuel vehicles; Exploiting novel travel demand management strategies;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Towards sustainable transportation

My research has been focused on developing solutions for sustainable transportation. Specifically, my research profile in the past five years features: Promoting alternative fuel vehicles; Exploiting novel travel demand management strategies; Reinventing transit systems;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Towards sustainable transportation

My research has been focused on developing solutions for sustainable transportation. Specifically, my research profile in the past five years features: Promoting alternative fuel vehicles; Exploiting novel travel demand management strategies; Reinventing transit systems; Analyzing new mobility services

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Disruptive technologies

Mobile computing and communication technologies

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Disruptive technologies

New vehicle technology

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Disruptive technologies

Ridesourcing and ridesharing

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Disruptive technologies

Social network

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Future of personal mobility

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Future of personal mobility

Most travellers will give up not only driving but likely also car ownership;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Future of personal mobility

Most travellers will give up not only driving but likely also car ownership; Personal travel will be mostly provided as a public service,

• perated by driverless cars;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Future of personal mobility

Most travellers will give up not only driving but likely also car ownership; Personal travel will be mostly provided as a public service,

• perated by driverless cars;

Traffic congestion will be here to stay (if not becoming worse).

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Future of personal mobility

Most travellers will give up not only driving but likely also car ownership; Personal travel will be mostly provided as a public service,

• perated by driverless cars;

Traffic congestion will be here to stay (if not becoming worse). What do we need to get there?

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Future of personal mobility

Most travellers will give up not only driving but likely also car ownership; Personal travel will be mostly provided as a public service,

• perated by driverless cars;

Traffic congestion will be here to stay (if not becoming worse). What do we need to get there? New strategies for design and

• peration

New theories for regulations and policies New mathematical models for forecasting and planning

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

Transportation Network Companies are touted as a strong contender as the future personal travel provider.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

Transportation Network Companies are touted as a strong contender as the future personal travel provider. Car manufacturers and tech giants are busy building part- nership with them.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

Transportation Network Companies are touted as a strong contender as the future personal travel provider. Car manufacturers and tech giants are busy building part- nership with them. Uber and Didi Chuxing are valued currently at $68B and $36B, respectively

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

Uber lost $1.27B in the first half of 2016, and Didi Chux- ing lost about $1.6B in 2015 based on some estimation.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Jun Jul-Dec

New York City Taxi Ridership from 2010 - 2016

2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 Jan Apr May Jul Aug Oct Nov Thousand Passenger

Taxi ridership from 2013 - 2015 (Shenzhen, China)

2013 2014 2015 2016

Uber lost $1.27B in the first half of 2016, and Didi Chux- ing lost about $1.6B in 2015 based on some estimation. There are signs that TNCs’ expansion in the market has slowed in recent months.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-Jun Jul-Dec

New York City Taxi Ridership from 2010 - 2016

2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 Jan Apr May Jul Aug Oct Nov Thousand Passenger

Taxi ridership from 2013 - 2015 (Shenzhen, China)

2013 2014 2015 2016

Uber lost $1.27B in the first half of 2016, and Didi Chux- ing lost about $1.6B in 2015 based on some estimation. There are signs that TNCs’ expansion in the market has slowed in recent months. TNCs’ current business model, built

• n

e-hailing, economy of scale and ag- gressive pricing, can only go so far (Nie, 2016)

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

TNCs are now betting heavily

• n driverless cars.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

TNCs are now betting heavily

• n driverless cars.

But can driverless cars solve all the problems?

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

TNCs are now betting heavily

• n driverless cars.

But can driverless cars solve all the problems? Much greater ride consol- idation/sharing must be achieved.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Case of Transportation Network Companies

TNCs are now betting heavily

• n driverless cars.

But can driverless cars solve all the problems? Much greater ride consol- idation/sharing must be achieved. Structured routes must be put in place, along with flex- ible routes.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What is CREDIT

Fixed-route service ‘On-demand service Regular stops On-demand check points

Phyical System

Trip planner Data warehouse

GPS trajectory

On-demand router Control and Communication Center

Trip guidance real time service information R

• u

t e s G P S t r a j e c t

• r

y Service request H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Real-time service information

Cyber System

System designer

Historical data H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Regular stops

CybeR-Enabled Demand Interactive Transit (CREDIT) is a hybrid system in- tegrating flexible routes with structured routes.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What is CREDIT

Fixed-route service ‘On-demand service Regular stops On-demand check points

Phyical System

Trip planner Data warehouse

GPS trajectory

On-demand router Control and Communication Center

Trip guidance real time service information R

• u

t e s G P S t r a j e c t

• r

y Service request H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Real-time service information

Cyber System

System designer

Historical data H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Regular stops

CybeR-Enabled Demand Interactive Transit (CREDIT) is a hybrid system in- tegrating flexible routes with structured routes. Flexible routes aims to improve last- mile accessibility, linking passengers to structured services.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What is CREDIT

Fixed-route service ‘On-demand service Regular stops On-demand check points

Phyical System

Trip planner Data warehouse

GPS trajectory

On-demand router Control and Communication Center

Trip guidance real time service information R

• u

t e s G P S t r a j e c t

• r

y Service request H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Real-time service information

Cyber System

System designer

Historical data H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Regular stops

CybeR-Enabled Demand Interactive Transit (CREDIT) is a hybrid system in- tegrating flexible routes with structured routes. Flexible routes aims to improve last- mile accessibility, linking passengers to structured services. Flexible routes directly responds to demand, similar to e-hailing.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What is CREDIT

Fixed-route service ‘On-demand service Regular stops On-demand check points

Phyical System

Trip planner Data warehouse

GPS trajectory

On-demand router Control and Communication Center

Trip guidance real time service information R

• u

t e s G P S t r a j e c t

• r

y Service request H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Real-time service information

Cyber System

System designer

Historical data H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Regular stops

CybeR-Enabled Demand Interactive Transit (CREDIT) is a hybrid system in- tegrating flexible routes with structured routes. Flexible routes aims to improve last- mile accessibility, linking passengers to structured services. Flexible routes directly responds to demand, similar to e-hailing. CREDIT does not guarantee door- to-door service for everyone.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What is CREDIT

Fixed-route service ‘On-demand service Regular stops On-demand check points

Phyical System

Trip planner Data warehouse

GPS trajectory

On-demand router Control and Communication Center

Trip guidance real time service information R

• u

t e s G P S t r a j e c t

• r

y Service request H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Real-time service information

Cyber System

System designer

Historical data H i s t

• r

i c a l d a t a Regular stops

CybeR-Enabled Demand Interactive Transit (CREDIT) is a hybrid system in- tegrating flexible routes with structured routes. Flexible routes aims to improve last- mile accessibility, linking passengers to structured services. Flexible routes directly responds to demand, similar to e-hailing. CREDIT does not guarantee door- to-door service for everyone.

CREDIT is a prototype of futuristic mass transit platforms.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Research agenda

Hybrid design Vehicle routing - sequencing, ride sharing etc. Operational strategies - headway control, coordination etc. Trip planning - personalized service and pricing

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Research agenda

Hybrid design Vehicle routing - sequencing, ride sharing etc. Operational strategies - headway control, coordination etc. Trip planning - personalized service and pricing The remaining of this talk will focus on hybrid design

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Research question: hybrid design

What is the best hybrid strategy from a macroscopic perspective?

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Research question: hybrid design

What is the best hybrid strategy from a macroscopic perspective? What is the optimal route struc- ture?

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Research question: hybrid design

What is the best hybrid strategy from a macroscopic perspective? What is the optimal route struc- ture? How to estimate optimal design parameters?

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Research question: hybrid design

What is the best hybrid strategy from a macroscopic perspective? What is the optimal route struc- ture? How to estimate optimal design parameters? How to perform a detailed design based on local characteristics?

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Design concepts

Sketchy design models under idealized conditions

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Design concepts

Sketchy design models under idealized conditions A continuous approximation approach

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Design concepts

Sketchy design models under idealized conditions A continuous approximation approach First consider a hybrid design called paired-line system.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Design concepts

Sketchy design models under idealized conditions A continuous approximation approach First consider a hybrid design called paired-line system.

Flexible routes are operated in parallel with paired fixed-route transit lines using smaller vehicles.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Design concepts

Sketchy design models under idealized conditions A continuous approximation approach First consider a hybrid design called paired-line system.

Flexible routes are operated in parallel with paired fixed-route transit lines using smaller vehicles. It only serves passengers whose access distance exceeds certain thresh-

• ld, which itself is a design parameter.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Design concepts

Sketchy design models under idealized conditions A continuous approximation approach First consider a hybrid design called paired-line system.

Flexible routes are operated in parallel with paired fixed-route transit lines using smaller vehicles. It only serves passengers whose access distance exceeds certain thresh-

• ld, which itself is a design parameter.

Design of flexible and structured routes is tightly integrated.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Sketchy design model

s D/H

D

Street Transit stop Area covered by a paired e-hailing service Fixed-route transit line Designated walking area service area between two stops

Square service area of side length D and street spacing

• f s.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Sketchy design model

s D/H

D

Street Transit stop Area covered by a paired e-hailing service Fixed-route transit line Designated walking area service area between two stops

Square service area of side length D and street spacing

• f s.

Demand generation rate λ as a homogeneous spatial Pois- son process.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Sketchy design model

s D/H

D

Street Transit stop Area covered by a paired e-hailing service Fixed-route transit line Designated walking area service area between two stops

Square service area of side length D and street spacing

• f s.

Demand generation rate λ as a homogeneous spatial Pois- son process. Structured routes operate in both directions, while flexible routes only operate in one di- rection.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Sketchy design model

s D/H

D

Street Transit stop Area covered by a paired e-hailing service Fixed-route transit line Designated walking area service area between two stops

Square service area of side length D and street spacing

• f s.

Demand generation rate λ as a homogeneous spatial Pois- son process. Structured routes operate in both directions, while flexible routes only operate in one di- rection. Flexible routes serve passen- gers

• utside

the designed waking area.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Assumptions

Passengers always use the stops closest to their origin and destination. If the access distance is less than βD/N (where β ∈ (0, 1] is a design variable), passengers will choose walking; otherwise, passengers will request e-hailing.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Assumptions

Passengers always use the stops closest to their origin and destination. If the access distance is less than βD/N (where β ∈ (0, 1] is a design variable), passengers will choose walking; otherwise, passengers will request e-hailing. Passengers submit their request prior to the desired departure time. Their request will be processed in a first-come-first-serve basis.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Assumptions

Passengers always use the stops closest to their origin and destination. If the access distance is less than βD/N (where β ∈ (0, 1] is a design variable), passengers will choose walking; otherwise, passengers will request e-hailing. Passengers submit their request prior to the desired departure time. Their request will be processed in a first-come-first-serve basis. Passengers travel between these stations with the least possible number of transfers and as directly as possible.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Assumptions

Passengers always use the stops closest to their origin and destination. If the access distance is less than βD/N (where β ∈ (0, 1] is a design variable), passengers will choose walking; otherwise, passengers will request e-hailing. Passengers submit their request prior to the desired departure time. Their request will be processed in a first-come-first-serve basis. Passengers travel between these stations with the least possible number of transfers and as directly as possible. When transfer is needed, passengers randomly choose the initial direction

• f travel.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

System Cost

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Formulation for the grid paired-line system

minz(N, H1, H2, β) (1) = πQQ + πMM + W + A + T + δ vw eT (2) s.t. H1 > 0, H2 > 0 (3) N ∈ {1, 2, ..., D s

• }

(4) 0 < β ≤ 1. (5) where N - number of lines; H1 - headway of structured routes; H2 - headway of flexible routes; β - Walking threhold are decision variables. πQ, πM, δ, vc1, vc2 are given parameters. Q = Q1 + Q2 4ND H1 + 5ND 2H2 + 2py λD3 3N (6) M = Q1 vc1 + Q2 vc2 (7) A = pn 2l vw (8) W = py H2 + H1 2

• 1 +

(N − 1)2 N2

• (9)

T = E1 vc1 + E2 vc2 (10) E1 = 0.34D(2N2 − 2N + 1) N2 ; E2 = py ly Q2H2 ND (11) Q - total distance traveled M - total fleet size A - walking time W - waiting time E - In-vehicle travel distance Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Formulation for the grid paired-line system

minz(N, H1, H2, β) (1) = πQQ + πMM + W + A + T + δ vw eT (2) s.t. H1 > 0, H2 > 0 (3) N ∈ {1, 2, ..., D s

• }

(4) 0 < β ≤ 1. (5) where N - number of lines; H1 - headway of structured routes; H2 - headway of flexible routes; β - Walking threhold are decision variables. πQ, πM, δ, vc1, vc2 are given parameters. where pn =

• 2β2,

0 < β ≤ 0.5, 1 − 2(1 − β)2, 0.5 < β ≤ 1. py = 1 − pn is walking probability eT = (N − 1)2 N2 is transfer probability, and l =   

2βD 3N ,

0 < β ≤ 0.5,

3−4(1−β)2(1+2β) 6−12(1−β)2

D N ,

0.5 < β ≤ 1. Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Alternative hybrid design

s D/H

D

Street Transit stop Area covered by a paired e-hailing service Fixed-route transit line Designated walking area service area between two stops

Paired-line system

s D/H

D

Street Transit stop Zones served by e-hailing service Fixed-route transit line

Zone-based system

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Alternative hybrid design

s D/H

D

Street Transit stop Area covered by a paired e-hailing service Fixed-route transit line Designated walking area service area between two stops

Paired-line system

s D/H

D

Street Transit stop Zones served by e-hailing service Fixed-route transit line

Zone-based system

Which one is better?

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Alternative route structure

Radial paired-line with flexible routes running on circular lines.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Alternative route structure

Radial paired-line with flexible routes running on radial lines.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Non-hybrid systems

Fixed-route transit system (Da- ganzo 2010)

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Non-hybrid systems

Fixed-route transit system (Da- ganzo 2010) Flexible-route transit system (Nourbakhsh & Ouyang 2012)

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Parameters

The optimization problem is solved by Matlab’s built-in genetic algorithm. Parameters used in the numerical experiments are listed below.

Notation Value Description s(km) 0.15 the distance between two adjacent streets (street spacing) µ($/h) 20 value of time τ1(s) 12 time lost per stop due to deceleration and acceleration τ ′

1(s)

1 time added per boarding passenger for fixed-route vehicles τ2(s) 13 additional pick-up and drop-off time required per passenger v(km/h) 25 vehicles’ cruising speed vw(km/h) 2 walking speed δ(km) 0.03 transfer penalty expressed in terms of equivalent distance walked $Q($/veh · km) 2

• peration cost per vehicle distance

$M($/veh · h) 40

• peration cost per vehicle hour

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Grid paired-line system vs. non-hybrid systems

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

λ (log−scale) cost (hour)

D = 20km DAPL−HT Fixed Transit Flexible Transit

Cost versus demand levels for D = 20km

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Sensitivity analysis: inconvenient walking

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

λ (log−scale) cost (hour)

D = 20km DAPL−HT Fixed Transit Flexible Transit

vw = 0.1km/h

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Sensitivity analysis: fast walking

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

λ (log−scale) cost (hour)

D = 20km DAPL−HT Fixed Transit Flexible Transit

vw = 3km/h

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Sensitivity analysis: high weight of waiting

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

λ (log−scale) cost (hour)

D = 20km DAPL−HT Fixed Transit Flexible Transit

1 unit of waiting time = 1.8 unit of in-vehicle time

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Zone-based vs. line-based: total cost

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 Demand λ (log−scale) Cost (hour) D = 20km Line−based Zone−based Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Zone-based vs. line-based: number of lines

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Demand λ (log−scale) Number of lines N D = 20km Line−based Zone−based Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Zone-based vs. line-based: headway

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Demand λ (log−scale) Headway (min) D = 20km Line−based−Fixed Line−based−E−hailing Zone−based Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Grid vs. radial: total cost

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 Demand λ (log−scale) Cost (hour) D = 20km Grid Radial−C−Model Radial−R−Model Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Grid vs. radial

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Demand λ (log−scale) Maximum Walking Distance (m) Grid Radial−C−Model Radial−R−Model

Maximum walking distance

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Demand λ (log−scale) Total Line Length (km) D = 20km Grid Radial−C−Model Radial−R−Model

Total line length

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Grid vs. radial

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

5 10 15 20 25 30 Demand λ (log−scale) Headway of Fixed−route Service (min) D = 20km Grid Radial−C−Model Radial−R−Model

Headway of structured routes

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 Demand λ (log−scale) Headway of Demand Adaptive Service (min) D = 20km Grid Radial−C−Model Radial−R−Model

Headway of flexible routes

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Grid vs. radial

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Demand λ (log−scale) Cost (hour) D = 20km Grid Radial−C−Model Radial−R−Model

Agency cost

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Demand λ (log−scale) Cost (hour) D = 20km Grid Radial−C−Model Radial−R−Model

User cost

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Simulation platform: NetLogo

NetLogo is a multi-agent pro- grammable modeling environment

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Simulation platform: NetLogo

NetLogo is a multi-agent pro- grammable modeling environment Transit System Simulation Inter- face developed using NetLogo

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Simulation vs. analysis results

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.25 1.3 1.35 1.4 1.45 1.5 Demand λ (log−scale) Cost (hour) D = 20km Line−based−Num Line−based−Sim

Paired-line system

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

1 1.05 1.1 1.15 1.2 1.25 1.3 1.35 1.4 1.45 1.5 Demand λ (log−scale) Cost (hour) D = 20km Zone−based−Num Zone−based−Sim

Zone-based system

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Simulation vs. analysis results

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Demand λ (log−scale) Cost (hour) R = 11.28km Radial−C−Model−Num Radial−C−Model−Sim

Radial paired-line system with circular flexible routes

10 10

1

10

2

10

3

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Demand λ (log−scale) Cost (hour) R = 11.28km Radial−R−Model−Num Radial−R−Model−Sim

Radial paired-line system with radial flexible routes

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Summary of findings

Hybrid systems clearly outperform traditional transit systems, especially in terms of user costs.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Summary of findings

Hybrid systems clearly outperform traditional transit systems, especially in terms of user costs. The line-based systems outperform the zone-based systems in both agency and user costs;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Summary of findings

Hybrid systems clearly outperform traditional transit systems, especially in terms of user costs. The line-based systems outperform the zone-based systems in both agency and user costs; The line-based design features a sparser structured routes but a higher dispatching frequency;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Summary of findings

Hybrid systems clearly outperform traditional transit systems, especially in terms of user costs. The line-based systems outperform the zone-based systems in both agency and user costs; The line-based design features a sparser structured routes but a higher dispatching frequency; Radial paired-line systems save about 10% system cost for larger networks with relatively high demand; and

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Summary of findings

Hybrid systems clearly outperform traditional transit systems, especially in terms of user costs. The line-based systems outperform the zone-based systems in both agency and user costs; The line-based design features a sparser structured routes but a higher dispatching frequency; Radial paired-line systems save about 10% system cost for larger networks with relatively high demand; and Analytical results match simulation results well in grid systems, but tend to overestimate the system cost in radial systems.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What did we learn?

Hybrid transit holds promise to improve user experience while

• perating the system efficiently.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What did we learn?

Hybrid transit holds promise to improve user experience while

• perating the system efficiently.

It personalizes transit services and is well equipped to balance cost and level of service.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What did we learn?

Hybrid transit holds promise to improve user experience while

• perating the system efficiently.

It personalizes transit services and is well equipped to balance cost and level of service. Electrification and automation will make novel transit systems like CREDIT much more competitive.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

What did we learn?

Hybrid transit holds promise to improve user experience while

• perating the system efficiently.

It personalizes transit services and is well equipped to balance cost and level of service. Electrification and automation will make novel transit systems like CREDIT much more competitive. Transportation systems analysts have the unique skill set to contribute to the intelligence of such systems.

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Where do we go from there?

Future research can further develop: Efficient real-time vehicle routing;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Where do we go from there?

Future research can further develop: Efficient real-time vehicle routing; Coordination and control strategies;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Where do we go from there?

Future research can further develop: Efficient real-time vehicle routing; Coordination and control strategies; Personalized service and pricing;

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Where do we go from there?

Future research can further develop: Efficient real-time vehicle routing; Coordination and control strategies; Personalized service and pricing; A high-fidelity, high-performance simulation platform

Nie Credit

Introduction CREDIT Hybrid design Results Conclusions

Thank you for listening! Acknowledgement

1 Nie (2016). How can the Taxi Industry Survive the Tide of Ridesourcing? Evidence from China. Transportation Research Part C, under review. 2 Chen, P. and Y. M. Nie (2016). Demand adaptive paired-line hybrid transit system. Transportation Research Part B, under review. 3 Chen, P. and Y. Nie. (2016). Optimal Design of Demand Adaptive Paired-Line Hybrid Transit: the Case of Radial Route Structure. European Journal

• f Operational Research, under review.

4 Chen, P. and Y. Nie. (2016). Connecting E- Hailing to Mass Transit Platform: Analysis of Relative Spatial Position, Transportation Research Part C, under review. 5 Li, Q., Chen, P., Nie, Y., (2015). Finding optimal hyper-paths in large transit networks with realistic headway distributions. European Journal of Operational Research 240 98 - 108. 6 Chen, P, and Y. Nie. (2015). Optimal Transit Routing with Partial Online Information, Trans- portation Research Part B, 72 40-58. Nie Credit