Commercial UAS Market Evolution For TTCs UAS East Symposium - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DoD Aircraft Acquisition and Commercial UAS Market Evolution

For TTC’s UAS East Symposium

Arlington, VA. November 7-8, 2017

Ron Stearns, Director, Business Development, Robotics and Unmanned Systems

DoN Aircraft Acquisition 2016-2022 (Airframes)

Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY 2018 budget documents

MQ-4C MQ-8C RQ-21 *systems

66 51 18

Situational Awareness Situational Understanding Situational Dominance

USAF, USA Aircraft Acquisition 2016-2022 (airframes)

Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY 2018 budget documents

MQ-9 & MQ-1C deliveries to end in FY 2018. These systems likely to be in service for 20+ years. Sustainment becomes key.

RDT&E Programs of Note 2016-22 ($ million)

Small Unit Remote Scouting System, USMC: Scalable

reconnaissance - RQ-12 Wasp, RQ-11 Raven, RQ-20 Puma and various NANO/VTOL UAS

UAS Payloads, USMC: Rapid sensor

integration to address changing threats, new technologies and capability gaps. USMC MUX MALE Group 5 UAV: Trade studies for the Marine Air Ground Task Force (MAGTF), Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Expeditionary (MUX) with Vertical/Short Take-Off and Vertical Landing (V/STOVL) capability. The MUX efforts will inform a future program of record.

USN: QRC and MQ-25 Stingray ($ million)

Elements of the MQ-25 program were previously funded under the UCLASS System Program Element, which became Carrier Based Aerial Refueling System (CBARS). It is now referred to as Unmanned Carrier Aviation (UCA)/MQ-25, with Initial Operational Capability to the fleet by the mid-2020s.

Source: Gansler, UMD 2012

Commercial UAS Market Evolution

Transitions, Time Compression, Part 107

May, 2014: FAA accepts petitions for commercial UAS exemption under Section 333 of FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 First six Section 333 exemptions are issued

• n Sept. 25, 2014 to six

television and film companies. 5,309 Section 333s approved as of June 8,2016). Blanket exemptions for test sites and 333 in increasing effect. AGL from 400-800 feet Moves toward Risk- based certification. Night operations under Section 333. Expedited, online commercial

• registration. Part 107

released June 21, 2016

From inertia to normalized access in two years

From thousands of commercial UAVs to potentially millions – how can systems scale to accommodate?

• Regulatory
• Production
• Equipage
• Information flow
• Command and control
• Operator certifications
• Commercial service providers
• Human-machine interface
• Airworthiness

Part 107: Early Takeaways

BVLOS will usher in viable commercial Group 3 UAS

“Progress in science is not linear, but rather exhibits periods of peaceful interludes punctuated by intellectually violent revolutions.”

• Thomas Kuhn

(paraphrased from “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, 1962).

Gold Rush, but who are the early winners? Imagery, data and business analytics driving CONOPS and revenues Commercial UAV size, weight and reliability must evolve Small businesses, Hyper localized > $1mm in revenues Greater: altitude, controller radius,

• perations over

people Increasing: mapping use, data reselling, applicability Section 333 and Part 107 are building the safety case

FAA UAS ID Committee

https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=88289&omni Rss=news_updatesAoc&cid=101_N_U

The FAA established the UAS ID Rulemaking Committee, whose recommendations will help to build the framework for ID and tracking and potentially contribute to

• perations over people not involved in the

commercial operation and operations beyond line of sight. There are 74 organizations represented on the panel, with 45 white papers submitted for evaluation intended to result in submitted hierarchy of needs within existing capabilities and technologies.

This is a critical component of see/sense and avoid. Some questions are:

• Spectrum – How will this information be

transmitted and ingested?

• Trade Space - Group 1 & 2 platforms have SWaP

restrictions, and any self-identification equipage will need to account for this

• Data Security – Will there be an encryption

requirement for data and information security?

• Exemptions - How far “down” to push this

requirement – 1&2 lb. systems may not be a possibility

• Who will manage the program(s)?
• What will the formats and standards look like?

Presidential UAS Integration Pilot Program

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/10/25/presidential- memorandum-secretary-transportation

• Oct. 25, 2017

Within 90 days the Secretary of Transportation and the Administrator of the FAA shall establish a UAS Integration Pilot Program to test the further integration of UAS into the NAS in a select number of State, local, and tribal jurisdictions. (b) The objectives of the Program shall be to: (i) test and evaluate various models of State, local, and tribal government involvement in the development and enforcement

• f Federal regulations for UAS operations;

(ii) encourage UAS owners and operators to develop and safely test new and innovative UAS concepts of operations; and (iii) inform the development of future Federal guidelines and regulatory decisions on UAS operations nationwide.

Reactions:

Will it pit state and local authorities against the FAA, and run counter to existing FAA FARs? How will this impact future UAS system certifications? Can it create areas where CONOPS for delivery and other commercial applications are technically validated? Does it provide a lever for greater “corporate” control of the NAS? Can it allow for expedited commercial

• perations beyond Part 107?

No help on UAS enforcement.

Commercial UAS Ecosystem Snapshot

Analyzed 647 organizations with active pursuit/participation in UAS markets and assigned to categories based upon stated core competency Data Processing: video, imagery and analysis RF/Comms: wireless, nav., detection, antennas, satcomms EO/IR: manufacture of all modalities Services: insurance, training, measurement, legal, field support, engineering, test, consultants Embedded Products: GPS, PCB, computers, data storage Electronics: MEMS, cabling, circuits, solar, avionics, IMU, switches, converters, connectors, motion control Components: bearings, power, batteries, fasteners, servos, hydraulics, tooling, chutes, cases, ground support

Present Conditions and The Way Ahead

Investment and Events Consumer to Commercial Product/Market Maturity Market Focus 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 10s of Millions $: 3DR, Parrot, GoPro, Yuneec Kespry, Measure, Precision Hawk Drone as a Service (DaaS) Drone Life: 50 Hours 100 Hours 300 Hours 1000 Hours + Hardware Software (Daas)Service Very Small Companies Limited Industrial Use Proof of Commercial Concepts Section 333 Part 107 Part 107 Waivers

Evolving Participants, Business Models

• Measure – Drone as a Service – new funding wave from VC and Private Equity
• Trumbull Unmanned – Oil & Gas, Drone-Enabled services provider
• Price Waterhouse Coopers – advisor to industrial users, conduit to drone use
• AeroVironment – Commercial Agriculture Service with internally-developed drone
• Trimble Geospatial – Took UX-5 UAV in house, Service for Precision Ag.
• Intel – Processing power, autonomous operations
• Altavian – Deployed services teams, mapping intensive
• Qualcomm - Cellular connectivity to enable autonomy
• AECOM – Industrial advisors and project management
• Airbus Ventures – Vahana, an autonomous personal-transportation vehicle
• Project Wing – Autonomous delivery via drone
• Amazon Prime Air – Delivery, consumer goods
• Uber – Aggressive build, test and flight plans for a VTOL Uber model

Evolving Models Truly Disruptive

Market Gap – Commercial Opportunity

Canon DSLR = 3-4

• lbs. $2000 for body,

lens, gantry assembly Humidity, salinity, particulates are no- fly deal breakers Current small camera mounting, approx. $1300

Weight wreaks havoc on small UAS capabilities. >10 grams can equal tens of minutes of flight time on a Risk Class 2 fixed-wing UAV Performance penalties are worse for VTOL UAVs. With maximum endurance of roughly 30 minutes Desired Commercial EO/IR Sensor Properties: 1. ITAR Free – commercially-available, worldwide 2. Stabilized 3. Environmentally robust: day-night and weather-tolerant 4. Independently powered 5. Less than 1.5 lbs. for entire system 6. Much lower power draw 7. Store onboard or stream imagery 8. Modular, hot-swappable payload(s) 9. > 5-inch diameter gimbal

Risk Classes and Commercial Best Fit

• VTOL UAV capabilities in the 40-60
• lb. range are surpassed every 18-24

months.

• Service providers are purchasing

UAVs in twos to avoid fleet

• bsolescence
• VTOL UAVs > 40 lbs. will become a

commoditized design space

• Barriers to entry for RC 1-2 rotary-

wing platforms are few, but the ability to scale production and spiral in capabilities is unproven

• To do so will require a warm line,

thorough IP sharing, real-time field feedback

Risk Class Aircraft Weight Example Aircraft NAS Access RC -6 15,000 lbs. and up 2020+ RC-5 5,000-15,000 lbs. 2020+ RC-4 1,500-5,000 lbs. 2020+ RC-3 55-1,500 lbs. 2019-2020 Exemptions RC-2 6-55 lbs. Part 107 RC-1 1-6 lbs. Part 107

Oil and Gas: Major Transmission Infrastructure Density

Map of major natural gas and oil pipelines in the U.S. Hazardous liquid lines are in red, gas transmission lines in blue Concentration in Texas, Oklahoma and Gulf states will help to define UAS CONOPS as well as industry and political partnerships This represents a sophisticated, moneyed end-user set. UAS Requirements are understood and waiting for expanded BLoS airspace access

Source: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration

Critical Electricity-Generation Infrastructure, United States (2017)

50 500 2000 5000

MW

Source: Washington Post

Type Number of Plants % National Output Natural Gas 1,793 34 Coal 400 30 Nuclear 61 20 Hydroelectric 1,444 7 Wind 999 6 Solar 1,721 1 Oil 1,076 1 U.S. Electricity Generation By Type, 2017

Opportunity for commercial UAV/UGV- enabled site surveillance and survey, with emphasis on Natural Gas, Coal and Nuclear plants which together generate 84% of U.S. output. Counter UAS will also be a part of this mission set.

Commercial UAS Value Proposition

Fixed fleet operating costs, data driven maintenance and upgrades Improving existing designs for performance, SWaP, and human factors Take new concepts from design to manufacture under one roof Keep fleet updated with latest technology Let you focus on selling your service or platform

The Velocity Group is at the leading edge of onshore product development and rapid time-to-market. We are assembling a world-class portfolio of design and manufacturing organizations that put customer focus at the heart of everything we do. Our mission: We help our clients accelerate time from idea to profit by providing single-source accountability for and management of the entire range of resources needed to bring concepts to profitable, market-ready products, to scale up for manufacturing and to produce and sustain them efficiently and cost-effectively.

About Us

velocityfast

Ron Stearns

Business Development Director Robotics & Unmanned Systems

Email

ron.stearns@velocityfast.com info@velocityfast.com

Social

LinkedIn: ron-stearns-5b819a Twitter: UnmannedRon

www.velocityfast.com/drones